Thursday, October 23, 2008

Capitulation, Japanese-Style


Apparently, Japan's market has now gone down to 1982 levels. Oh, it gets even worse--DJIA futures are down 352+ points last time I looked. [It got worse--see chart above.]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aRTtcZqFRnII

Sigh. I wish I could go to sleep and wake up in May 2009, when I think the Dow will be back up to 10,000. In any case, I call capitulation. I called it too early before, but I call it now. October 24, 2008. Capitulation.

Update on October 24, 2008: no 1,000 point drop today, but it's still a bad day--DJIA still down 200+ points.

1 comment:

alison said...

Methinks too early re capitulation?

At least over here, this is the *start* of a recession (need two subsequent quarters of shrinking over here, before a recession - not happened yet).

Last week, media over here reported the Dow reflected FTSE, with the latter responding to recession news. What's going to happen next quarter?

Since the probability recession is reasonable (the media alone sees to, nevermind loss of jobs, record number of evictions, etc). Can it not be said that the economy is going to take a further dive? Thus if the market reacts, and people will be making their shares liquid, because they won't be able to afford not to (lost their jobs, negative equity on property, etc) ....

My dad, who is no economist, thinks we're going to hit bottom a year from now. He also thinks he's being optimistic(!)