Stocks Update, July 30, 2008

I opened new positions in SO, VNQ, GRMN, and EZU. My next buy will either be WFR or NVDA. My largest positions are now SO, CCT (not included because most shares bought before publicly tracking positions), and VNQ. I am concerned about GRMN going down further in the short-term, but plan on holding onto it for at least a year.

My short-term trades continue to be uniformly positive by small margins. With these short-term trades, I regularly invest large dollar amounts and get out quickly, usually making 1% each round-trip. If I do that 10 times a year with all my money, that's a 10% gain, but I've got too many scattered positions right now to commit to a full-time short-term strategy.

The major outstanding question is whether we have experienced capitulation. There is no uniformly accepted definition of "capitulation"--it's the same as Justice Potter Stewart's definition of pornography: "I know it when I see it." The WSJ wrote today the VIX (volatility index) hasn't reached the levels some experts demand before calling a capitulation, but the market hasn't been acting predictably anyway, so perhaps it's all noise. Experts and fund managers probably want to see panic before they commit major amounts in the stock market, and whatever signal they're looking for, they're not seeing it. As a result, most experts say it's not time yet to jump back into the pool. Me, I am slowly getting back in, but I am aiming for September 2008 as a time to consider adding to my existing positions in a serious way. Other than SO, none of my individual positions currently exceeds 5,000 dollars.

Numbers below are based on prices at the close of market on July 30, 2008.

Open Positions
EWM = -3.49
EZU = +1.24
GRMN = -2.41
IF = -4.56
SO = -0.61 [insignificant movement, so not included in average]
VNQ = +3.39

[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 1.17%]

Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from averages and overall record calculations)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
WYE = +2.4%

[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.97%]

Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%)

[Overall Record: Gained an average of 2.96%]

Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)

[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]

Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 7.32%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day July 30, 2008 (1284.26)]

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