Words of doom: "At this point [2003], the U.S. makes up only 30% of the world economy but sucks up 80% of the world's savings."
Here is the link to the whole report (PDF file):
http://www.rapp.org/wp-content/112203-bridgewater.pdf
(copyright belongs to Bridgewater)
HTML version here:
Bridgewater 2003 Report
(copyright belongs to Bridgewater)
"And if an epitaph be my story, I'd have a short one ready for my own: I had a lover's quarrel with the world." -- Robert Frost
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
From Conde Nast's Portfolio.com comes a fantastic interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb :
http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/the-world-according-to/2008/08/14/Interview-With-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb
Here is one excerpt:
The structure of uncertainty in the world is vastly greater than we think. So let's stop playing the narrative fallacy. Take economics, for example. How many economists figured out that when people go to the store to buy products from China, they're raising the price of oil at the pump? How many people thought of that? They raise the price at the pump just by going there.
Interesting fellow, this Mr. Taleb. His book, The Black Swan, received rave reviews, and I liked it but wouldn't necessarily recommend it over Wheelan's Naked Economics, Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street, or Greider's Secrets of the Temple.
http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/the-world-according-to/2008/08/14/Interview-With-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb
Here is one excerpt:
The structure of uncertainty in the world is vastly greater than we think. So let's stop playing the narrative fallacy. Take economics, for example. How many economists figured out that when people go to the store to buy products from China, they're raising the price of oil at the pump? How many people thought of that? They raise the price at the pump just by going there.
Interesting fellow, this Mr. Taleb. His book, The Black Swan, received rave reviews, and I liked it but wouldn't necessarily recommend it over Wheelan's Naked Economics, Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street, or Greider's Secrets of the Temple.
Random Thoughts
With GE reporting decent earnings and no corresponding effect on the overall market, I have only three thoughts in my head:
1. The beatings will continue until morale improves.
2. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
3. Omnia munda mundis. (All things are pure to the pure in heart.)
I'm not sure why the last one popped in my head, but perhaps it's my subconscious asking for divine intervention. After today's buying, my retirement accounts are now fully invested. From December 7, 2007 until today, my retirement accounts have decreased 22.6%. The S&P 500 has fallen 42.8% during the same time period. My retirement accounts need to increase 29% to get back to December 2007 levels (a decline of 1% in your portfolio requires more than 1% to get it back to the pre-existing level--it's counter-intuitive, but true). I would say today is the bottom, but I've been wrong before.
1. The beatings will continue until morale improves.
2. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
3. Omnia munda mundis. (All things are pure to the pure in heart.)
I'm not sure why the last one popped in my head, but perhaps it's my subconscious asking for divine intervention. After today's buying, my retirement accounts are now fully invested. From December 7, 2007 until today, my retirement accounts have decreased 22.6%. The S&P 500 has fallen 42.8% during the same time period. My retirement accounts need to increase 29% to get back to December 2007 levels (a decline of 1% in your portfolio requires more than 1% to get it back to the pre-existing level--it's counter-intuitive, but true). I would say today is the bottom, but I've been wrong before.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Debt Clock
The national debt has become so large, the debt clock can't keep up:
http://www.mlive.com/flintjournal/voices/index.ssf/2008/10/and_the_debt_clock_says_time_t.html
You have to love the title: What time is it? "Time to kiss your future goodbye."
http://www.mlive.com/flintjournal/voices/index.ssf/2008/10/and_the_debt_clock_says_time_t.html
You have to love the title: What time is it? "Time to kiss your future goodbye."
I Was Wrong
My September 18, 2008 call of capitulation was wrong. See call after the jump:
http://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2008/09/capitulation-is-hereagain-good-times-to.html
But today, on October 9, 2008, I feel like I called the bottom only a few weeks too early--which isn't a capital crime. Here is my take on the current situation, which I posted on Barry Ritholz's website:
It all depends on GE and Google. That's it--the double G's will determine whether we make or lose money. No other real catalyst on the horizon--interest rates have been cut, and money pumped in, so both the money supply and interest rates have been manipulated. After HP's positive earnings, I am feeling sanguine, despite the blood on the streets.
I bought a commodity fund for my 401k today, T Rowe Price's New Era fund. Being relatively young, I am a buyer at these levels. I just wish I had more gunpowder. My Roth IRA is already fully invested.
http://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2008/09/capitulation-is-hereagain-good-times-to.html
But today, on October 9, 2008, I feel like I called the bottom only a few weeks too early--which isn't a capital crime. Here is my take on the current situation, which I posted on Barry Ritholz's website:
It all depends on GE and Google. That's it--the double G's will determine whether we make or lose money. No other real catalyst on the horizon--interest rates have been cut, and money pumped in, so both the money supply and interest rates have been manipulated. After HP's positive earnings, I am feeling sanguine, despite the blood on the streets.
I bought a commodity fund for my 401k today, T Rowe Price's New Era fund. Being relatively young, I am a buyer at these levels. I just wish I had more gunpowder. My Roth IRA is already fully invested.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
What the Japanese Stock Market Tells Us
Remember the Japanese and their banking problems? Japan is much different from the U.S., but this chart does not bode well for the U.S. stock market. Japan currently has the world's third largest GDP (on a purchasing power parity basis). Check out this article:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/special_report/1997/asian_economic_woes/34500.stm
The Japanese economy was growing at a headlong rate, and companies were expanding and investing as never before.
The trouble was that much of this investment was being financed by an extraordinary boom in property and share prices. Property and shares were used as security for huge bank loans - and when the property markets and stock markets suddenly crashed at the beginning of the nineties the whole spiral of borrowing, asset price inflation and investment came to a full stop.
And despite many government initiatives to kick start demand, Japan's economy has remained fairly stagnant for the last six years. The stock market has been flat too, making it difficult for companies...to make profits.
Sound familiar? Defensive investors know that consumers will always need health care and consumer staples (e.g., Unilever products); however, investors looking for more than a 5 to 7% annual return are evaluating other options. After all, the key to getting high returns is determining the next high growth economic area and/or product.
U.S. companies realized earlier than most Americans that their growth would rely on non-U.S. countries. As a result, most major companies have shifted their emphasis overseas while lobbying for fewer trade restrictions. Now that the American consumer appears to be down and out, the question is whether the world economy can finally gain traction without the U.S. The most obvious way this decoupling will occur is if the American dollar is devalued, creating incentives for other countries to buy American products. If a Chinese yuan buys quite a bit of American goods, the Chinese consumer will feel flush and may start spending more, allowing the world economy to have more than one major source of income. A similar scenario can also play out with the Indian and Brazilian consumers. In fact, non-U.S. citizens must spend more in order to maintain economic stability.
Once you realize how small the American population is--only 5% of the world population--it's fairly easy to see that the most growth will come from abroad. As a result, trade restrictions will harm U.S. companies and their ability to expand and get their products into the hands of other countries' consumers. American companies that fail to achieve high growth rates will lay off workers in order to become more efficient. Thus, improving the job market means helping American companies gain more consumers, which means giving them more access to non-U.S. consumers. To achieve easy access to the international market, we have to negotiate with other countries and have fewer restrictions to encourage a free flow of ideas, money, and traffic. As much as we may hate to admit it, reducing trade restrictions and devaluing the American dollar may actually stabilize the world economy in the long run.
At the end of the day, what choice do we have, really? The American consumer is tapped out. Other countries' consumers must step up to the plate, and we need to encourage them to do so. In an era where the world economy requires more trust between countries, the latest failure of the Doha Development Round is an ominous portent. Thankfully, the failure of governments is not determinative.
The American corporations that succeed will be the ones who understand that the American consumer is but one small slice of a very large worldwide pie. In an era of cynicism, skepticism, and security fears, we must regain our confidence and look to maximize our international footprint through trade and superior products. The "Post-American world" can no longer be an amorphous, distant concept if we are to succeed--Americans must begin to see the world as one large marketplace in which they have the advantage because of their greater access to technology (Google, Yahoo, eBay, Intel, etc. all made in the U.S.A.); the world's common language (English); an above average health care system (better health means more productivity); and entrepreneurship (it can take less than a week to set up a small business in California--for fun, compare that time with India and its small business rules/red tape).
I never thought I would advocate a weaker domestic currency, but sad times create sad consequences. The time has come to work harder and re-gain our stature in the world. When the non-U.S. buyers come, America must welcome them with open arms and the American attitude formerly known as optimistic. America is down, but as long as we have immigrants arriving and hoping for a better future, you cannot count America out. For better or worse, we are still the world's major repository for dreams. That's why I don't see a Japan-style economic morass happening in America--Japan is getting older and has never liked immigration. As long as we stay away from protectionism and encourage responsible immigration, we will do just fine.
VeriFone (PAY) Shareholder Meeting
VeriFone's (symbol: PAY) 2008 annual shareholder meeting took place today at the Doubletree Hotel in downtown San Jose.
VeriFone, Inc. is a payment-processing-technology specialist. When you use your credit or debit card, someone has to handle the transfer of information from Point A to Point B in a secure format. VeriFone is trying to position itself as the worldwide financial middleman. However, it has been plagued by accounting scandals and as a result, its stock price is near a 52-week low.
The meeting was a bare-bones event. VeriFone did not have a presentation. The informal portion of the meeting involved only a Q&A session and lasted under 10 minutes. Only water was served from a cooler. Only three non-employees attended. I asked about the financial irregularities. The CEO said VeriFone had replaced the CFO and the general counsel in an effort to reform the company. He said the specific accounting problem was that the company overstated inventory and understated the cost of goods. (This accounting problem would cause the company to report an incorrect higher net profit for most of last year.) Class action lawsuits have been filed against VeriFone, and the 10K did not list any settlements or pending resolutions.
I asked several other questions about the company's business. The CEO's responses are below:
1. VeriFone already has 65% market share in the U.S and Canada, and Hypercom is their primary competitor. The main reason VeriFone does not have more market share is because the market wants an alternative, even if that alternative is not as good as VeriFone.
2. (The 10K states that profit margins are lower in the U.S. and Canada, but VeriFone is seeking to expand more internationally rather than domestically.) The reason VeriFone is focusing on international expansion is because emerging markets are not saturated. Only around 1 to 20% of retailers in Brazil, Turkey and other emerging markets use payment-processing technology, and the opportunities for growth are much better.
3. VeriFone's competitive advantage is that it spends the most on R&D and has the most employees. They are a safe, if not the safest, choice.
As a value play, it's hard to go against VeriFone. At the same time, it's also hard to promote a company that had ethical issues as recently as last year, especially in a post-Sarbanes-Oxley world. I personally think there are better companies in which to invest, but others may want to consider VeriFone after it resolves outstanding litigation.
Disclosure: I own less than 30 shares of Verifone (PAY).
VeriFone, Inc. is a payment-processing-technology specialist. When you use your credit or debit card, someone has to handle the transfer of information from Point A to Point B in a secure format. VeriFone is trying to position itself as the worldwide financial middleman. However, it has been plagued by accounting scandals and as a result, its stock price is near a 52-week low.
The meeting was a bare-bones event. VeriFone did not have a presentation. The informal portion of the meeting involved only a Q&A session and lasted under 10 minutes. Only water was served from a cooler. Only three non-employees attended. I asked about the financial irregularities. The CEO said VeriFone had replaced the CFO and the general counsel in an effort to reform the company. He said the specific accounting problem was that the company overstated inventory and understated the cost of goods. (This accounting problem would cause the company to report an incorrect higher net profit for most of last year.) Class action lawsuits have been filed against VeriFone, and the 10K did not list any settlements or pending resolutions.
I asked several other questions about the company's business. The CEO's responses are below:
1. VeriFone already has 65% market share in the U.S and Canada, and Hypercom is their primary competitor. The main reason VeriFone does not have more market share is because the market wants an alternative, even if that alternative is not as good as VeriFone.
2. (The 10K states that profit margins are lower in the U.S. and Canada, but VeriFone is seeking to expand more internationally rather than domestically.) The reason VeriFone is focusing on international expansion is because emerging markets are not saturated. Only around 1 to 20% of retailers in Brazil, Turkey and other emerging markets use payment-processing technology, and the opportunities for growth are much better.
3. VeriFone's competitive advantage is that it spends the most on R&D and has the most employees. They are a safe, if not the safest, choice.
As a value play, it's hard to go against VeriFone. At the same time, it's also hard to promote a company that had ethical issues as recently as last year, especially in a post-Sarbanes-Oxley world. I personally think there are better companies in which to invest, but others may want to consider VeriFone after it resolves outstanding litigation.
Disclosure: I own less than 30 shares of Verifone (PAY).
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Who Pays Taxes?
The WSJ (A25, October 7, 2008) had more statistics on the tax debate:
The top 20% pay 67% of all federal taxes--including not just income taxes, but payroll taxes, corporate taxes, and death/estate taxes. The top 1% of earners pay 26% of all federal taxes.
If Republicans want a return to the Reagan era, pointing out raw numbers isn't the way to get there. The average American knows the rich make the lion's share of money in this country. He also knows that no matter what the percentages and numbers are, unlike the average American, the rich don't have to worry about housing, food, or health care. Despite this knowledge, taxes have continued to come down for years in this country because the average American doesn't hate most rich people. In modern-day America, the majority of super-rich people don't inherit their wealth--they earn it, which gives them some immunity from European-style envy. Thus, the key goal of low-taxation advocates shouldn't be fairness per se. Instead, the goal should be to assure that everyone's tax contributions--no matter what the amount--are spent improving access to health care, infrastructure, and other quality-of-life services as well as cutting wasteful spending. A single dollar collected that goes towards more laws, more useless agencies, more unnecessary subsidies, and more lobbyist requests will damage everyone's faith in the system. In short, low-tax advocates must convince everyone that all taxes collected are going towards necessary services.
Americans want to be rich, so bashing the rich won't work in America as a primary political platform. The average American probably cares more about a) whether his or her tax dollars are spent for necessary services rather than special-interest spending; and b) whether taxes are enough to cover necessary services. Thus, the debate should be about what services are necessary, how the government can best deliver them, and whether the government is the best entity to deliver those services.
The top 20% pay 67% of all federal taxes--including not just income taxes, but payroll taxes, corporate taxes, and death/estate taxes. The top 1% of earners pay 26% of all federal taxes.
If Republicans want a return to the Reagan era, pointing out raw numbers isn't the way to get there. The average American knows the rich make the lion's share of money in this country. He also knows that no matter what the percentages and numbers are, unlike the average American, the rich don't have to worry about housing, food, or health care. Despite this knowledge, taxes have continued to come down for years in this country because the average American doesn't hate most rich people. In modern-day America, the majority of super-rich people don't inherit their wealth--they earn it, which gives them some immunity from European-style envy. Thus, the key goal of low-taxation advocates shouldn't be fairness per se. Instead, the goal should be to assure that everyone's tax contributions--no matter what the amount--are spent improving access to health care, infrastructure, and other quality-of-life services as well as cutting wasteful spending. A single dollar collected that goes towards more laws, more useless agencies, more unnecessary subsidies, and more lobbyist requests will damage everyone's faith in the system. In short, low-tax advocates must convince everyone that all taxes collected are going towards necessary services.
Americans want to be rich, so bashing the rich won't work in America as a primary political platform. The average American probably cares more about a) whether his or her tax dollars are spent for necessary services rather than special-interest spending; and b) whether taxes are enough to cover necessary services. Thus, the debate should be about what services are necessary, how the government can best deliver them, and whether the government is the best entity to deliver those services.
Barry Diller on Online Advertising
Barry Diller had an interesting interview today in the WSJ.
You really want to get a headache? Try to understand Internet advertising. Social networking advertising is being discounted because there is so much inventory [of available ad spots], and because methods have not yet been found to make it very effective. Will that get figured out? I absolutely believe it will. What form will it take? Absolutely unknown.
Mark Cuban seems to have found a potential solution/form in www.hulu.com
You really want to get a headache? Try to understand Internet advertising. Social networking advertising is being discounted because there is so much inventory [of available ad spots], and because methods have not yet been found to make it very effective. Will that get figured out? I absolutely believe it will. What form will it take? Absolutely unknown.
Mark Cuban seems to have found a potential solution/form in www.hulu.com
Monday, October 6, 2008
Update: DJIA Down 550 Points
Yes, it's a bloodbath today in the markets, but I am buying. In fact, I've spent more money today than I ever have, if you include my 401k purchases. As for individual stock picks, I bought GOOG, STT, YHOO, GE, and even some WYNN. Visa (V) looked interesting, too. Remember, Visa and Mastercard don't loan anyone money--they're just middlemen who get a transaction fee. In contrast, Discover and American Express have a more risky practice of loaning money themselves to certain customers or exposing some of their own assets to risk. I predict this recession will be over by May 2009, having started in December 2007. I hope to flip GOOG this week.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Best...Spoof...Ever
© Columbia Business School Follies
http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/organizations/follies/Follies/Welcome.html
Mark Cuban on How to Get Rich
More evidence Mark Cuban is a straight-talking genius:
http://blogmaverick.com/2008/10/04/how-to-get-rich/
I identify with the ketchup and mustard sandwiches (for me, it was Jack in the Box's 99 cent chicken sandwiches). I have a long way to go before even getting a tiny fraction of Cuban's net worth, but I am happy I currently have no debt after going to law school.
http://blogmaverick.com/2008/10/04/how-to-get-rich/
I identify with the ketchup and mustard sandwiches (for me, it was Jack in the Box's 99 cent chicken sandwiches). I have a long way to go before even getting a tiny fraction of Cuban's net worth, but I am happy I currently have no debt after going to law school.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Dave Ramsey's Plan
It's a moot point now, but here was Dave Ramsey's proposed plan:
http://www.daveramsey.com/common_sense_fix.txt
I mention it only because it recommends eliminating the capital gains tax entirely. His rationale is that rich people will use their own money to invest in the market--rather than risk not beating inflation by staying in cash or 2% money market funds--and the market will rise again on the backs of the upper class's investments, not general taxpayers. You have to admit, it's an interesting idea.
http://www.daveramsey.com/common_sense_fix.txt
I mention it only because it recommends eliminating the capital gains tax entirely. His rationale is that rich people will use their own money to invest in the market--rather than risk not beating inflation by staying in cash or 2% money market funds--and the market will rise again on the backs of the upper class's investments, not general taxpayers. You have to admit, it's an interesting idea.
Stocks Update, October 3, 2008
What a crazy day. After the House passed the bailout bill, the stock market actually went down. I made several trades and managed to do reasonably well, except I re-bought STT too soon after selling. I am currently experiencing a loss on STT and hope to sell within two weeks.
Also, the percentages for EMC and Yahoo are slightly off, because I dipped into my non-retirement accounts to buy some shares. I am losing a few hundred dollars on the trades in my non-retirement funds, but nothing that significantly impacts the percentages below.
I added MGM to my open positions at about 2,000 dollars' worth. Vegas relies on now-nervous California citizens for much of its income, but I am willing to bet a small amount that Vegas has some more tricks up its sleeve. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Dubai provide the 500 billion dollars needed to complete the latest MGM project. I still don't like MGM's CEO, J. Terrence Lanni, so I probably won't add to my MGM position.
My major positions are now STT, YHOO, SWZ, and GXC. Yahoo stock seems priced far too low.
Open Positions
CCT = -7.95
EMC = -13.58
EZU = -16.73
GXC = -12.15
MGM = -3.45
IF = -33.37
STT = -8.45 (afterhours price)
SWZ = -12.62
VPL = -13.80
YHOO = -16.09
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 13.82%]
[138.19/10]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; MOS (10.4%) [10/6/08 to 10/8/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; STT (2.68%) [10/1/08 to 10/3/08]; STT (0.4%) [10/3/08 to 10/7/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.57%]
[60.78 / 17 trades; as of 10/8/08]
Daytrades:
C = +11.49 (09/01/08)
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
STT = +0.3
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 3.35%]
16.79/5
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 20.67%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to October 3, 2008 (1099.23)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Also, the percentages for EMC and Yahoo are slightly off, because I dipped into my non-retirement accounts to buy some shares. I am losing a few hundred dollars on the trades in my non-retirement funds, but nothing that significantly impacts the percentages below.
I added MGM to my open positions at about 2,000 dollars' worth. Vegas relies on now-nervous California citizens for much of its income, but I am willing to bet a small amount that Vegas has some more tricks up its sleeve. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Dubai provide the 500 billion dollars needed to complete the latest MGM project. I still don't like MGM's CEO, J. Terrence Lanni, so I probably won't add to my MGM position.
My major positions are now STT, YHOO, SWZ, and GXC. Yahoo stock seems priced far too low.
Open Positions
CCT = -7.95
EMC = -13.58
EZU = -16.73
GXC = -12.15
MGM = -3.45
IF = -33.37
STT = -8.45 (afterhours price)
SWZ = -12.62
VPL = -13.80
YHOO = -16.09
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 13.82%]
[138.19/10]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; MOS (10.4%) [10/6/08 to 10/8/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; STT (2.68%) [10/1/08 to 10/3/08]; STT (0.4%) [10/3/08 to 10/7/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.57%]
[60.78 / 17 trades; as of 10/8/08]
Daytrades:
C = +11.49 (09/01/08)
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
STT = +0.3
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 3.35%]
16.79/5
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 20.67%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to October 3, 2008 (1099.23)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
California Out of Money?
According to Reuters, California Treasurer Bill Lockyer said the most populous U.S. state's cash reserves may be exhausted near the end of October, and various state-funded services are at risk of grinding to a halt.
Governor Schwarzenegger is apparently going to ask the federal government for 7 billion dollars. Good timing--after 700 billion, 7 billion is going to seem eminently reasonable.
When Californians vote on their various propositions, they should remember California's budget problems (i.e., no money). Almost every Proposition requires more money. When in doubt, vote "no." The only Proposition I will be voting for is Prop 11. Everything else seems to require money Californians don't have.
Governor Schwarzenegger is apparently going to ask the federal government for 7 billion dollars. Good timing--after 700 billion, 7 billion is going to seem eminently reasonable.
When Californians vote on their various propositions, they should remember California's budget problems (i.e., no money). Almost every Proposition requires more money. When in doubt, vote "no." The only Proposition I will be voting for is Prop 11. Everything else seems to require money Californians don't have.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Wisdom: Father Theodore Hesburgh
From Father Theodore Hesburgh, courtesy of the WSJ (9/30/08, A15):
People are tough on people, but I love people, and the great, great, great majority of people are very good. We have our share of sinners, even in all the great religions of the world, but I think the fact that people keep trying is the most important thing of all, and I'd like to be one of those who keep trying.
People are tough on people, but I love people, and the great, great, great majority of people are very good. We have our share of sinners, even in all the great religions of the world, but I think the fact that people keep trying is the most important thing of all, and I'd like to be one of those who keep trying.
Tom Toles on the Bailout
In honor of the bailout, I give you Tom Toles. The man is an absolute genius.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/cartoonsandvideos/toles_main.html?name=Toles&date=09242008&type=c
(September 24, 2008, Washington Post)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/cartoonsandvideos/toles_main.html?name=Toles&date=09242008&type=c
(September 24, 2008, Washington Post)
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
More Short Term Mania
I was successful in completing a two day Google (GOOG) roundtrip yesterday. This morning, I bought some State Street (STT) and Citigroup (C). I am hoping to sell today or by this Friday.
From a technical standpoint, the risks of trading have increased, despite the higher chance that a revised bailout bill will pass. Most financial stocks hit all-time lows this week or last week, so the smart money has already been made. On the other hand, I just saw a headline, "Dow 7000 in the Cards?" so perhaps there is still enough fear for a decent-sized bounce when the bailout bill passes.
One note: the "revised" bailout bill doesn't seem much different from the original. Apparently, the key change was raising federal deposit insurance to $250,000. Some reports indicate the revised bill contains AMT relief, but Congress already passed a tax plan last week with AMT relief.
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Update on October 2, 2008: sold my C, still have my STT, but hope to sell soon.
Update on October 3, 2008: sold my STT. Both trades were profitable.
From a technical standpoint, the risks of trading have increased, despite the higher chance that a revised bailout bill will pass. Most financial stocks hit all-time lows this week or last week, so the smart money has already been made. On the other hand, I just saw a headline, "Dow 7000 in the Cards?" so perhaps there is still enough fear for a decent-sized bounce when the bailout bill passes.
One note: the "revised" bailout bill doesn't seem much different from the original. Apparently, the key change was raising federal deposit insurance to $250,000. Some reports indicate the revised bill contains AMT relief, but Congress already passed a tax plan last week with AMT relief.
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Update on October 2, 2008: sold my C, still have my STT, but hope to sell soon.
Update on October 3, 2008: sold my STT. Both trades were profitable.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Bailout = Monetarism in Action
I wanted to make another note about the bailout package, and why Wall Street wants it so badly. The overriding principle behind the proposed bailout reflects Wall Street's blind belief in the economic theory of "monetarism." This theory calls for pumping money into the economy to make it better during bad times. There is a joke that explains monetarism. It refers to Ben Bernanke in a helicopter dropping bags of money to random people. Unfortunately, this joke falls into the "funny because it's true" category.
Richard Duncan, in Chapter 3 of his book, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures , Revised and Updated, says that monetarism is like pouring water over a drowning child. He states,
The failure of those [liquidity calibration] attempts will be the death of monetarism, which claims that any economic difficulty can be overcome simply by adjusting the money supply up or down depending on the circumstances. It will be death through drowning.
To continue the analogy, pouring money into a shallow pool to attract more people doesn't mean people will suddenly learn how to swim--some people will drown as the pool becomes more dangerous.
I am surprised more news stories haven't mentioned the term, "monetarism." The absence of the term in new stories shows either the mainstream media don't know much about economics, or they think their audience can't understand economic theory.
Update: In The Predator State, James Galbraith has a prescient line about America's "unlimited privilege of issuing never-to-be-paid chits" coming to an end. The book also contains a scathing rebuke of monetarism (surprisingly, all the book reviews I've read never once mention "monetarism"). Galbraith also writes that managing interest rates, not the money supply (M1, M2, etc.), stimulates the economy. In other words, even if the government hands down a billion dollars, it doesn't ensure that the money is spent; in contrast, if the government lowers interest rates, it makes it easier for money to be lent and spent and used optimally within the economy.
Richard Duncan, in Chapter 3 of his book, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures , Revised and Updated, says that monetarism is like pouring water over a drowning child. He states,
The failure of those [liquidity calibration] attempts will be the death of monetarism, which claims that any economic difficulty can be overcome simply by adjusting the money supply up or down depending on the circumstances. It will be death through drowning.
To continue the analogy, pouring money into a shallow pool to attract more people doesn't mean people will suddenly learn how to swim--some people will drown as the pool becomes more dangerous.
I am surprised more news stories haven't mentioned the term, "monetarism." The absence of the term in new stories shows either the mainstream media don't know much about economics, or they think their audience can't understand economic theory.
Update: In The Predator State, James Galbraith has a prescient line about America's "unlimited privilege of issuing never-to-be-paid chits" coming to an end. The book also contains a scathing rebuke of monetarism (surprisingly, all the book reviews I've read never once mention "monetarism"). Galbraith also writes that managing interest rates, not the money supply (M1, M2, etc.), stimulates the economy. In other words, even if the government hands down a billion dollars, it doesn't ensure that the money is spent; in contrast, if the government lowers interest rates, it makes it easier for money to be lent and spent and used optimally within the economy.
Google Short Term Roundtrip Completed
In case you are following my trades, today, on 09/30/2008, I sold 100 GOOG at 412 dollars. I made 5.4% on the short-term trade. GOOG may go higher, but every wise investor's primary rule is, "Don't be greedy." Or, as Cramer says, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."
Now I have to go figure out what is going on with Cypress Semiconductor (CY) shares. I know they spun off Sunpower, but Yahoo Finance is showing that CY shot up over 60% post-spinoff. I had some CY shares and bought more AMAT yesterday because it appears Obama will win the election; if so, solar power companies will benefit from his tax credit/subsidy plan. Even so, CY, the stand-alone semiconductor company, increasing 60+% (according to Yahoo finance) seems strange and incorrect.
More on the CY spinoff here: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10440059/1/a-wacky-debut-for-cypress-semi-stock.html
Update: I am now the proud owner of 17 shares of SPWRB. Spinoffs are always nice, especially when they are in tax-deferred accounts. Calculating a basis for spinoffs come tax-time deserves its own level of hell in Dante's Inferno.
Update: GOOG According to Yahoo finance, Google stock closed today at $320.50/share, but something fishy is going on. In after-hours, GOOG is trading at $413/share. Meanwhile, Google's finance page shows a closing price of $342/share. Thus, we have three different prices for the same stock. I always think some major player (Gordon Gekko reborn?) is manipulating shares somehow when this kind of discrepancy occurs.
Inefficiency happens more frequently than people would like to admit. For example, when I placed my trade to buy 100 shares of GOOG at a market price, I bought shares at $391--even though immediately before the trade, and immediately and at least a minute after the trade, GOOG shares traded around $388. Someone pocketed (stole?) the three dollars. Multiply that by thousands and millions of shares traded daily, and you can see that someone is making massive amounts of money.
Now I have to go figure out what is going on with Cypress Semiconductor (CY) shares. I know they spun off Sunpower, but Yahoo Finance is showing that CY shot up over 60% post-spinoff. I had some CY shares and bought more AMAT yesterday because it appears Obama will win the election; if so, solar power companies will benefit from his tax credit/subsidy plan. Even so, CY, the stand-alone semiconductor company, increasing 60+% (according to Yahoo finance) seems strange and incorrect.
More on the CY spinoff here: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10440059/1/a-wacky-debut-for-cypress-semi-stock.html
Update: I am now the proud owner of 17 shares of SPWRB. Spinoffs are always nice, especially when they are in tax-deferred accounts. Calculating a basis for spinoffs come tax-time deserves its own level of hell in Dante's Inferno.
Update: GOOG According to Yahoo finance, Google stock closed today at $320.50/share, but something fishy is going on. In after-hours, GOOG is trading at $413/share. Meanwhile, Google's finance page shows a closing price of $342/share. Thus, we have three different prices for the same stock. I always think some major player (Gordon Gekko reborn?) is manipulating shares somehow when this kind of discrepancy occurs.
Inefficiency happens more frequently than people would like to admit. For example, when I placed my trade to buy 100 shares of GOOG at a market price, I bought shares at $391--even though immediately before the trade, and immediately and at least a minute after the trade, GOOG shares traded around $388. Someone pocketed (stole?) the three dollars. Multiply that by thousands and millions of shares traded daily, and you can see that someone is making massive amounts of money.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Google a Short Term Trade?
On September 29, 2008, I bought 100 shares of Google (GOOG) at around $391 per share and may buy more tomorrow. I am optimistic that once the bailout package is re-worked, it will be passed on Thursday, and the overall stock market and Google stock will increase.
Google has several short-term catalysts:
1. The Google phone (the T-Mobile HTC G1) is set for a timely launch; the iPhone craze has subsided, allowing consumers to notice a competing product; and for now, the G1 lacks any problems, such as the launch problems Garmin (GRMN) is having with its nuvifone.
See U.K. article below for more information on the G1:
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/personal_tech/article4830543.ece
2. The U.S. Antitrust Department should not interfere with the Google-Yahoo deal. Jeff Jarvis has an excellent article on this issue:
[T]he problem with going after Google is that - unlike typical monopolies - it didn't steal its booty like a pirate in the night. It didn't win by being closed and proprietary. Google won by being open and distributed - which is not the image of the monopolist.
(from http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/sep/15/digitalmedia.google)
3. As stated above, the House will pass a revised bailout bill soon, and the market should jump at least 200 points on that day. Short-term volatility will favor companies unfairly beaten down by the financial sector, such as State Street Corp. (STT), which didn't directly invest in subprime, and cash-rich companies, like Google (GOOG).
On a side note, when I bought the Google shares, I placed a market order rather than a limit order, causing the trade to execute at 391 rather than the lowest available price (at the time) of 388. Remember: when trading in volatile markets, place a limit order.
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Google has several short-term catalysts:
1. The Google phone (the T-Mobile HTC G1) is set for a timely launch; the iPhone craze has subsided, allowing consumers to notice a competing product; and for now, the G1 lacks any problems, such as the launch problems Garmin (GRMN) is having with its nuvifone.
See U.K. article below for more information on the G1:
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/personal_tech/article4830543.ece
2. The U.S. Antitrust Department should not interfere with the Google-Yahoo deal. Jeff Jarvis has an excellent article on this issue:
[T]he problem with going after Google is that - unlike typical monopolies - it didn't steal its booty like a pirate in the night. It didn't win by being closed and proprietary. Google won by being open and distributed - which is not the image of the monopolist.
(from http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/sep/15/digitalmedia.google)
3. As stated above, the House will pass a revised bailout bill soon, and the market should jump at least 200 points on that day. Short-term volatility will favor companies unfairly beaten down by the financial sector, such as State Street Corp. (STT), which didn't directly invest in subprime, and cash-rich companies, like Google (GOOG).
On a side note, when I bought the Google shares, I placed a market order rather than a limit order, causing the trade to execute at 391 rather than the lowest available price (at the time) of 388. Remember: when trading in volatile markets, place a limit order.
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
"Blame it on the River"
The blog, "The Pendulum Swings," has one of the best macro-views of the current financial crisis:
http://tradecoholdco.wordpress.com/2008/08/27/blame-it-on-the-river-not-on-the-bank/
Today, Congress failed to pass the bailout bill (the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008), causing the Dow to drop 700+ points. The Nasdaq took an even harder hit, falling over 9%.
I took the opportunity to add to some positions. Some positions I had partially sold two months ago returned above the 2,000 dollar threshold, so I am re-including them on the Stocks Update. Below are percentages as of 12:25PM on September 29, 2008. It's not a pretty sight, but the open positions are in retirement accounts, so ten years from now, I hope to have the last laugh.
Open Positions
CCT = -13.86
EMC = -13.88
EZU = -15.73
GXC = -13.92
IF = -29.79
SWZ = -12.34
VPL = -11.24
YHOO = -12.86
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 15.44%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; [GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.49%]
[41.9 / 12 trades; doesn't include GOOG trade on 9/30]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 18.82%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day September 22, 2008 (1124.84)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
http://tradecoholdco.wordpress.com/2008/08/27/blame-it-on-the-river-not-on-the-bank/
Today, Congress failed to pass the bailout bill (the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008), causing the Dow to drop 700+ points. The Nasdaq took an even harder hit, falling over 9%.
I took the opportunity to add to some positions. Some positions I had partially sold two months ago returned above the 2,000 dollar threshold, so I am re-including them on the Stocks Update. Below are percentages as of 12:25PM on September 29, 2008. It's not a pretty sight, but the open positions are in retirement accounts, so ten years from now, I hope to have the last laugh.
Open Positions
CCT = -13.86
EMC = -13.88
EZU = -15.73
GXC = -13.92
IF = -29.79
SWZ = -12.34
VPL = -11.24
YHOO = -12.86
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 15.44%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; [GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.49%]
[41.9 / 12 trades; doesn't include GOOG trade on 9/30]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 18.82%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day September 22, 2008 (1124.84)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Pan's Labyrinth
Because this blog is dedicated to economics and the law, I don't usually share movie recommendations. However, Director Guillermo del Toro's film, Pan's Labyrinth, is too good for me to keep private.
Mr. del Toro, like other great directors, leaves a unique, identifiable mark on his films. His films are characterized by an authoritarian presence; an idealistic character who rebels against authority and overprotective adults; a reminder of the horrors of armed conflict; and an otherworldly presence whose loyalty is unknown until the end of the film.
Roger Ebert called Pan's Labyrinth a fairy tale for adults. I'd describe it as a grown-up version of The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe. Mr. del Toro reminds us to question authority and to listen to the wisdom of children. In this day and age, as we become more and more affluent, it is too easy to forget about the sacrifices our ancestors made to create a more civilized society. Without being heavyhanded, Mr. del Toro shows us the sacrifices we have made--and those we should never make.
Mr. del Toro directed another film, The Devil's Backbone, a darker and less polished film. The Devil's Backbone has similar elements as Pan's Labyrinth and effectively functioned as a warm-up for Pan's Labyrinth. If you want to see three great international films, watch Juan Antonio Bayona's The Orphanage, The Devil's Backbone, and Pan's Labyrinth, in that order.
Mr. del Toro, like other great directors, leaves a unique, identifiable mark on his films. His films are characterized by an authoritarian presence; an idealistic character who rebels against authority and overprotective adults; a reminder of the horrors of armed conflict; and an otherworldly presence whose loyalty is unknown until the end of the film.
Roger Ebert called Pan's Labyrinth a fairy tale for adults. I'd describe it as a grown-up version of The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe. Mr. del Toro reminds us to question authority and to listen to the wisdom of children. In this day and age, as we become more and more affluent, it is too easy to forget about the sacrifices our ancestors made to create a more civilized society. Without being heavyhanded, Mr. del Toro shows us the sacrifices we have made--and those we should never make.
Mr. del Toro directed another film, The Devil's Backbone, a darker and less polished film. The Devil's Backbone has similar elements as Pan's Labyrinth and effectively functioned as a warm-up for Pan's Labyrinth. If you want to see three great international films, watch Juan Antonio Bayona's The Orphanage, The Devil's Backbone, and Pan's Labyrinth, in that order.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Andrew Jackson on Government
Former President Andrew Jackson on government:
There are no necessary evils in government. Its evils exist only in its abuses. If it would confine itself to equal protection, and, as Heaven does its rains, shower its favors alike on the high and low, the rich and the poor, it would be an unqualified blessing.
President Jackson makes sense, until you realize government necessarily favors some groups over others in making laws and deciding what laws to enforce. Equal enforcement and equal protection are seldom-practiced, idealistic theories. President Jackson himself should have seen this--the rains he mentions affect some parts of the country, not all, and are dispersed unequally.
There are no necessary evils in government. Its evils exist only in its abuses. If it would confine itself to equal protection, and, as Heaven does its rains, shower its favors alike on the high and low, the rich and the poor, it would be an unqualified blessing.
President Jackson makes sense, until you realize government necessarily favors some groups over others in making laws and deciding what laws to enforce. Equal enforcement and equal protection are seldom-practiced, idealistic theories. President Jackson himself should have seen this--the rains he mentions affect some parts of the country, not all, and are dispersed unequally.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Katha Pollitt's Take on Sarah Palin
The Nation's Katha Pollitt has an immensely entertaining piece on Sarah Palin:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/380768_katha28.html
"If she wasn't a big reactionary, she'd make a fantastic community organizer."
"But let's be real: There is just no way Palin is equipped to be vice president, much less president. She doesn't know enough; she lacks the necessary grasp of, and curiosity about, our complex world; her political philosophy could fit on a bumper sticker: Us versus Them."
Yes, it's a lefty view, but it's great writing, so I had to share. I had no idea McCain's campaign demanded and received special debate rules for the Biden-Palin debate. Shame on McCain for making such a demand.
Katha Pollitt has a blog: http://kathapollitt.blogspot.com/
I can't believe I haven't read more by Ms. Pollitt. She is joie de vivre personified.
[Note: this post has been modified since its original publication.]
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/380768_katha28.html
"If she wasn't a big reactionary, she'd make a fantastic community organizer."
"But let's be real: There is just no way Palin is equipped to be vice president, much less president. She doesn't know enough; she lacks the necessary grasp of, and curiosity about, our complex world; her political philosophy could fit on a bumper sticker: Us versus Them."
Yes, it's a lefty view, but it's great writing, so I had to share. I had no idea McCain's campaign demanded and received special debate rules for the Biden-Palin debate. Shame on McCain for making such a demand.
Katha Pollitt has a blog: http://kathapollitt.blogspot.com/
I can't believe I haven't read more by Ms. Pollitt. She is joie de vivre personified.
[Note: this post has been modified since its original publication.]
Tom Toles on Debt Addiction
Tom Toles delivers another scathing, hilarious cartoon. This one's from February 28, 2008 (Washington Post). I love the comment at the lower right hand side.
WaMu: No Safeguards Lead to Collapse
I have accounts with WaMu and am happy that JP Morgan has taken them over. JPM's James Dimon has the respect of many investors and Wall Street, and thankfully, my deposits are safe at WaMu. I just read this article in a legal magazine about WaMu, and it's no wonder the bank collapsed. Take a look at this story, where WaMu gave 43 loans (25 million dollars) to one couple, revealing a complete lack of safeguards or risk controls:
http://www.abajournal.com/news/1_family_43_wamu_mortgages_27m_in_likely_lender_losses
If the Fed is correct--that it is buying undervalued securities that will eventually increase in value when the real estate market stabilizes--then JPM would be a good buy. In effect, JPM has partnered with the Fed in its new debt issuance and stands to gain or lose like the Fed. I had considered buying JPM stock, but the stock increased 11% today. It looks like I missed the boat.
http://www.abajournal.com/news/1_family_43_wamu_mortgages_27m_in_likely_lender_losses
If the Fed is correct--that it is buying undervalued securities that will eventually increase in value when the real estate market stabilizes--then JPM would be a good buy. In effect, JPM has partnered with the Fed in its new debt issuance and stands to gain or lose like the Fed. I had considered buying JPM stock, but the stock increased 11% today. It looks like I missed the boat.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)