Thursday, May 15, 2008

Was Plato a Libertarian?

"Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws." -- Plato (427 - 347 B.C.)

In an unrelated note, the DJIA closed at almost 13,000 today. I already sold most of my individual stock holdings last month, but today I sold most of my mutual funds also. I now hold 30% of my retirement portfolio in various ETFs, international bond funds, and preferred shares, and 70% in money market funds. With my non-retirement funds, I have about 90% of my monies in money market funds. I just don't see a good investing horizon with 125 dollar a barrel oil (predicted to go to 200 dollars by Goldman Sachs); a stronger dollar, which will reduce earnings of multinationals, who haven't adjusted earnings guidance downward yet; a possible recession; no Medicare solution in sight; a 12 to 20 billion dollar deficit projected in California, one of the world's largest economies; a possible Democratic Congress and Democratic presidency, which I may support, but which will lead to a higher capital gains tax; and the tapering off of the effects of the Fed's actions.

Given these facts, only those with opaque rose-tinted glasses would be optimistic about the stock market over the next year and a half. But I hope I am wrong.

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