Bailout = Monetarism in Action

I wanted to make another note about the bailout package, and why Wall Street wants it so badly. The overriding principle behind the proposed bailout reflects Wall Street's blind belief in the economic theory of "monetarism." This theory calls for pumping money into the economy to make it better during bad times. There is a joke that explains monetarism. It refers to Ben Bernanke in a helicopter dropping bags of money to random people. Unfortunately, this joke falls into the "funny because it's true" category.

Richard Duncan, in Chapter 3 of his book, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures , Revised and Updated, says that monetarism is like pouring water over a drowning child. He states,

The failure of those [liquidity calibration] attempts will be the death of monetarism, which claims that any economic difficulty can be overcome simply by adjusting the money supply up or down depending on the circumstances. It will be death through drowning.

To continue the analogy, pouring money into a shallow pool to attract more people doesn't mean people will suddenly learn how to swim--some people will drown as the pool becomes more dangerous.

I am surprised more news stories haven't mentioned the term, "monetarism." The absence of the term in new stories shows either the mainstream media don't know much about economics, or they think their audience can't understand economic theory.

Update: In The Predator State, James Galbraith has a prescient line about America's "unlimited privilege of issuing never-to-be-paid chits" coming to an end. The book also contains a scathing rebuke of monetarism (surprisingly, all the book reviews I've read never once mention "monetarism"). Galbraith also writes that managing interest rates, not the money supply (M1, M2, etc.), stimulates the economy. In other words, even if the government hands down a billion dollars, it doesn't ensure that the money is spent; in contrast, if the government lowers interest rates, it makes it easier for money to be lent and spent and used optimally within the economy.

Google Short Term Roundtrip Completed

In case you are following my trades, today, on 09/30/2008, I sold 100 GOOG at 412 dollars. I made 5.4% on the short-term trade. GOOG may go higher, but every wise investor's primary rule is, "Don't be greedy." Or, as Cramer says, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."

Now I have to go figure out what is going on with Cypress Semiconductor (CY) shares. I know they spun off Sunpower, but Yahoo Finance is showing that CY shot up over 60% post-spinoff. I had some CY shares and bought more AMAT yesterday because it appears Obama will win the election; if so, solar power companies will benefit from his tax credit/subsidy plan. Even so, CY, the stand-alone semiconductor company, increasing 60+% (according to Yahoo finance) seems strange and incorrect.

More on the CY spinoff here: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10440059/1/a-wacky-debut-for-cypress-semi-stock.html

Update: I am now the proud owner of 17 shares of SPWRB. Spinoffs are always nice, especially when they are in tax-deferred accounts. Calculating a basis for spinoffs come tax-time deserves its own level of hell in Dante's Inferno.

Update: GOOG According to Yahoo finance, Google stock closed today at $320.50/share, but something fishy is going on. In after-hours, GOOG is trading at $413/share. Meanwhile, Google's finance page shows a closing price of $342/share. Thus, we have three different prices for the same stock. I always think some major player (Gordon Gekko reborn?) is manipulating shares somehow when this kind of discrepancy occurs.

Inefficiency happens more frequently than people would like to admit. For example, when I placed my trade to buy 100 shares of GOOG at a market price, I bought shares at $391--even though immediately before the trade, and immediately and at least a minute after the trade, GOOG shares traded around $388. Someone pocketed (stole?) the three dollars. Multiply that by thousands and millions of shares traded daily, and you can see that someone is making massive amounts of money.

Google a Short Term Trade?

On September 29, 2008, I bought 100 shares of Google (GOOG) at around $391 per share and may buy more tomorrow. I am optimistic that once the bailout package is re-worked, it will be passed on Thursday, and the overall stock market and Google stock will increase.

Google has several short-term catalysts:

1. The Google phone (the T-Mobile HTC G1) is set for a timely launch; the iPhone craze has subsided, allowing consumers to notice a competing product; and for now, the G1 lacks any problems, such as the launch problems Garmin (GRMN) is having with its nuvifone.

See U.K. article below for more information on the G1:

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/personal_tech/article4830543.ece

2. The U.S. Antitrust Department should not interfere with the Google-Yahoo deal. Jeff Jarvis has an excellent article on this issue:

[T]he problem with going after Google is that - unlike typical monopolies - it didn't steal its booty like a pirate in the night. It didn't win by being closed and proprietary. Google won by being open and distributed - which is not the image of the monopolist.

(from http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/sep/15/digitalmedia.google)

3. As stated above, the House will pass a revised bailout bill soon, and the market should jump at least 200 points on that day. Short-term volatility will favor companies unfairly beaten down by the financial sector, such as State Street Corp. (STT), which didn't directly invest in subprime, and cash-rich companies, like Google (GOOG).

On a side note, when I bought the Google shares, I placed a market order rather than a limit order, causing the trade to execute at 391 rather than the lowest available price (at the time) of 388. Remember: when trading in volatile markets, place a limit order.

The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.

"Blame it on the River"

The blog, "The Pendulum Swings," has one of the best macro-views of the current financial crisis:

http://tradecoholdco.wordpress.com/2008/08/27/blame-it-on-the-river-not-on-the-bank/

Today, Congress failed to pass the bailout bill (the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008), causing the Dow to drop 700+ points. The Nasdaq took an even harder hit, falling over 9%.

I took the opportunity to add to some positions. Some positions I had partially sold two months ago returned above the 2,000 dollar threshold, so I am re-including them on the Stocks Update. Below are percentages as of 12:25PM on September 29, 2008. It's not a pretty sight, but the open positions are in retirement accounts, so ten years from now, I hope to have the last laugh.

Open Positions
CCT = -13.86
EMC = -13.88
EZU = -15.73
GXC = -13.92
IF = -29.79
SWZ = -12.34
VPL = -11.24
YHOO = -12.86

[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 15.44%]

Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4

[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]

Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; [GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]

[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.49%]
[41.9 / 12 trades; doesn't include GOOG trade on 9/30]

Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)

[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 1.76%]

Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 18.82%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day September 22, 2008 (1124.84)]

The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.

Pan's Labyrinth

Because this blog is dedicated to economics and the law, I don't usually share movie recommendations. However, Director Guillermo del Toro's film, Pan's Labyrinth, is too good for me to keep private.

Mr. del Toro, like other great directors, leaves a unique, identifiable mark on his films. His films are characterized by an authoritarian presence; an idealistic character who rebels against authority and overprotective adults; a reminder of the horrors of armed conflict; and an otherworldly presence whose loyalty is unknown until the end of the film.

Roger Ebert called Pan's Labyrinth a fairy tale for adults. I'd describe it as a grown-up version of The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe. Mr. del Toro reminds us to question authority and to listen to the wisdom of children. In this day and age, as we become more and more affluent, it is too easy to forget about the sacrifices our ancestors made to create a more civilized society. Without being heavyhanded, Mr. del Toro shows us the sacrifices we have made--and those we should never make.

Mr. del Toro directed another film, The Devil's Backbone, a darker and less polished film. The Devil's Backbone has similar elements as Pan's Labyrinth and effectively functioned as a warm-up for Pan's Labyrinth. If you want to see three great international films, watch Juan Antonio Bayona's The Orphanage, The Devil's Backbone, and Pan's Labyrinth, in that order.

Andrew Jackson on Government

Former President Andrew Jackson on government:

There are no necessary evils in government. Its evils exist only in its abuses. If it would confine itself to equal protection, and, as Heaven does its rains, shower its favors alike on the high and low, the rich and the poor, it would be an unqualified blessing.

President Jackson makes sense, until you realize government necessarily favors some groups over others in making laws and deciding what laws to enforce. Equal enforcement and equal protection are seldom-practiced, idealistic theories. President Jackson himself should have seen this--the rains he mentions affect some parts of the country, not all, and are dispersed unequally.

Katha Pollitt's Take on Sarah Palin

The Nation's Katha Pollitt has an immensely entertaining piece on Sarah Palin:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/380768_katha28.html

"If she wasn't a big reactionary, she'd make a fantastic community organizer."

"But let's be real: There is just no way Palin is equipped to be vice president, much less president. She doesn't know enough; she lacks the necessary grasp of, and curiosity about, our complex world; her political philosophy could fit on a bumper sticker: Us versus Them."

Yes, it's a lefty view, but it's great writing, so I had to share. I had no idea McCain's campaign demanded and received special debate rules for the Biden-Palin debate. Shame on McCain for making such a demand.

Katha Pollitt has a blog: http://kathapollitt.blogspot.com/

I can't believe I haven't read more by Ms. Pollitt. She is joie de vivre personified.

[Note: this post has been modified since its original publication.]