Elegy for a Blog (Not Yet)

I just discovered this old post. I was going to publish it in December 2011, but I put it aside and forgot about it.

________

I've been feeling a bit strange lately and needed to get out to a different locale. I used a free Southwest ticket and recently spent a few days in New Orleans. It was fun, but the trip didn't do much to resolve my internal miasma. I don't know if this is a midlife crisis, especially because I'm only in my early thirties, but it feels like I'm moving steadily forward into nowhere.

I had a list of goals to accomplish before I turned 30 years old, and I completed most of them. I thought I was aiming high--I included unique items like shaking Warren Buffett's hand, which I did at the 2007 Berkshire Hathaway meeting. I completed other goals earlier than I thought I would, like paying off my law school loans.

I haven't been able to come up with another list of goals. I recall reading about Ted Turner's dad telling his son to aim high and to set goals he'd never be able to achieve. That way, he'd always have something to keep him going.

I haven't really accomplished much anyhow, which makes my inability to write another "to-do" list puzzling. The older I get, though, the more I realize that people who get things done don't usually write about themselves a whole lot. They just focus on the task at hand, get it done, and move forward to the next task. They focus more on their family, their friends, their colleagues, and their local surroundings than abstract issues like the world, politics, or the stock market.

With my degrees in Philosophy, English, and law, I've probably spent most of my life dealing with abstract issues. While I cherish my general knowledge and experiences, it seems time to focus more on the here-and-now, which may help me re-gain the energy and optimism I had when I had nothing.

From a financial standpoint, I am currently mostly in cash/money market funds. I've been luckier than most--since December 2007, I've lost around 14% in my retirement accounts and made money in my regular accounts. In my retirement accounts, I will be looking to buy more TIPs (either TIP or VIPSX) and/or low-cost corporate bond funds (e.g., VWEHX, VCVSX). [Update: my positions may change at any time. Nothing here constitutes investment advice.] I will still attend shareholder meetings, and I may write about them on this blog; however, I foresee writing more book reviews and fewer posts (maybe once every month).

I continue to believe the most dangerous modern development has been the attenuation of community, i.e. the unnatural separation of things that used to go together, and the knowledge we gain and take for granted when we live with engaged people in an honest community. These days, neighbors don't know each other well; bankers don't directly own their mortgages; elected representatives listen more to lobbyists than ordinary people; schools don't teach children basic principles about government and economics, because no one can agree on the fundamental things anymore (not even whether torture is acceptable); people worry more about protecting their slice of the pie than increasing its size and longevity; families in larger cities need dual incomes so they lack the time to keep local governments honest; men, generally the more unpredictable gender, have fewer ways of proving their manhood locally and seem to unconsciously seek conflict to prove their importance; and war has become all too easy and no less horrific. In short, things seem to be falling apart; the center cannot be found, much less maintained.

The second most dangerous modern change is the failure of serious journalism. Read New York Times v. Sullivan to see the role America's founders expected of newspapers and media. Needless to say, it's a serious, substantial role--not one that bombards the public with Britney Spears, Lindsey Lohan, and Chris Brown. Imagine: without the Washington Post's (WPO) intrepid reporting, would we have known about Watergate? Fast-forward to recent times, and the New York Times (NYT) has caved into the government's "request" to delay publishing warrantless wiretapping reports.

How did we go from newspapers keeping the government honest to newspapers assisting the government in withholding information? Is it any wonder newspaper companies are going bankrupt? But without national newspapers to expose government corruption, who will fill the investigative void? TMZ? The Drudge Report? The National Enquirer? Will major newspapers revert to non-public forms so they can focus on investigative reporting? Or are financial interests so entrenched that it is too late to return to a more appropriate business model? The current situation--government and deficits becoming larger, while few credible entities have the resources to expose corruption and incompetence--is untenable.

I'm not one to leave on a dour note, so I will end with the following Theodore Roethke poem, which, to me, explains best where I'm at:

The Waking

I wake to sleep, and take my waking slow.
I feel my fate in what I cannot fear.
I learn by going where I have to go.

We think by feeling. What is there to know?
I hear my being dance from ear to ear.
I wake to sleep, and take my waking slow.

Of those so close beside me, which are you?
God bless the Ground! I shall walk softly there,
And learn by going where I have to go...

I wake to sleep, and take my waking slow.
I learn by going where I have to go.

Thank you for reading. Feel free to come back once in a while.

DisneyWorld in Orlando, Florida

When I was a kid, I dreamed of visiting the Epcot Center and seeing Michael Jackson’s show. 

On the way to Canada, I stopped in Orlando overnight and took a bus to several Disney parks in the morning. It was surprisingly chilly in the morning and evening, but coming from Sweden, I was prepared. Sadly, as with most childhood memories, DisneyWorld didn’t meet the hype, though its hotel, guest relations, and airport transfer service (Magical Express) were fantastic. 

The different parks—spread over miles of land and asphalt highways—required a makeover. I tried visiting the gift shops at each park, but most of them were behind the ticket gates, an odd business decision. I liked the artistic touches, such as the cruise line bus painted like a ship, but after Tokyo’s DisneySea, I had high expectations for Disney’s flagship park. 

Unfortunately, like much of America in 2019, marketing (aka propaganda) exceeded reality, and infrastructure looked neglected. I strongly suspected I should have visited one of Disney’s newer resorts elsewhere. I had to wonder: will America realize it needs to catch up to the rest of the world, or will it continue to sail on its remarkable post-WWII (1945 to 1991) winds? In the alternative, am I just living the cliché that once you’ve left home, you can’t return because your perspective has changed irrevocably? 

Bonus: some practical advice: 1) do not bring any bags to the parks. There are separate security lines for visitors depending on their belongings, and the ones without bags or backpacks sailed through; 2) the cheapest hotel appears to be All-Star Sports, which has a 24/7 McDonald’s nearby, an opportunity to save even more money by eating meals offsite; and 3) Orlando’s airport is busier and less efficient than Ft. Lauderdale’s. My TSA check took about 20 minutes—after the 10 minutes wait in line to security. 

One of the All Star Sports complexes

Scotland: Overlooked and Underappreciated

It took England 400 years to conquer the Scots, and they still haven't forgotten it. 

From Edinburgh Castle.

From the National Museum of Scotland.

The Scots--as independent as possible post-Acts-of-Union--print their own currency, 

Scottish currency is accepted in England, though I've never seen it.

fly their own flag, sing their own songs, have their own accent, 

From The Royal Dick pub in Edinburgh.
I promise I am not making up the name.

and mock the English every chance they get. One clue the Scots are more rational than their southern neighbor is they voted to remain in the EU, while the English voted to leave, throwing the U.K. into a political morass from which it still hasn't recovered. ("Pulling out doesn't stop people from coming," noted one political cartoonist on the immigration issue.) Interestingly, Scottish author Robert Louis Stevenson once wrote, "We all belong to many countries," a marked contrast to English PM Theresa May's 2016 comment, "If you believe you’re a citizen of the world, you’re a citizen of nowhere. You don’t understand what the very word 'citizenship' means." 

From Dean's I Must Belong Somewhere (2017)

Indeed, the Scots have a long tradition of rationality. They practically invented life insurance through the Scottish Widow's Fund, a pooling of funds for the elderly, 

From Armchair Books in Edinburgh.

and the Scots' list of inventions doesn't stop there. They also invented penicillin, the pedal bicycle, and Europe's first passenger steamboat (Montrose and Dundee's histories are inseparable from ships)--and that's only some of the "p"s. Growing up in California, where numerous parks are named after John Muir, I assumed he was Californian. In fact, he was born and raised near Edinburgh, and after moving to America, was instrumental in preserving Yosemite and other national parks. 

Outside Edinburgh's Writers' Museum.

Adam Smith, David Hume, the creator of Sherlock Holmes... the compilation of "Famous Scots You Didn't Know Were Scots" goes on and on. Even Englishwoman J.K. Rowling wrote much of the first Harry Potter novel in various Edinburgh cafes, where she moved to be close to her sister. (As a single parent, walking to nearby cafes was her preferred method for lulling her baby to sleep.) 

On bathroom wall of The Elephant House cafe.

Bluegrass and folk music in the American Appalachia? Their roots are Scottish, derived from songs Robert Burns collected on his local travels and modified. (One such song was "Auld Lang Syne"--which should not be confused with the delightful Auld Handsel Monday.) 

From Glasgow's Mitchell Library.

Despite their many accomplishments, the Scots harbor an inferiority streak larger than any steamboat they ever built. 

A recent best-selling book in Scotland? Poverty Safari: Understanding the Anger of Britain's Underclass--by a Scottish rapper. How does Scotland's pre-eminent historian describe his country? "A History of the Dispossessed." It's easy to forget now, with Scotland's North Sea oil wealth gushing everywhere since 1969, but much of Scotland was once a no-go zone. 

Between November 1930 and May 1935, Glasgow's unemployment rate was around 30%, and the Glasgow Razor Gangs, named for their weapon of choice, were running amok. As recently as 2005, only Finland had a higher murder rate in the developed world than Scotland. North Sea oil wealth still hasn't completely transformed mostly rural Scotland--

around 49% of Edinburgh, the capital, is made up of green space, and the reason some of the world's best strawberry jam comes from Scotland is because its relatively low population leaves plenty of room for farmland.

At the National Museum of Scotland (free admission), I came across a video of a Scottish government official lamenting the number of Scots leaving and taking their talents elsewhere, especially to Canada and Australia. 

From Le Chateau Frontenac in Quebec City

In the most poignant part of the video, a young couple discussed their thoughts on leaving Scotland. The wife did most of the talking until the very end, when the man chimed in, saying, "We Scots are hard workers." Indeed they are, mate. And from what I could see, mostly good people, too. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2020)

Bonus I: Robert Louis Stevenson, on travel: 

For my part, I travel not to go anywhere, but to go. I travel for travel's sake. The great affair is to move; to feel the needs and hitches of our life more nearly; to come down off this feather-bed of civilization, and find the globe granite underfoot and strewn with cutting flints.

Bonus II: The name Edinburgh may derive from Northumberland; Edwin, the King of Northumbria from 616 to 632, built a town on the River Forth that became known as Edwin's Burgh.

Bonus III: Full disclosure: I attended first grade in Edinburgh, so I may be a wee biased in favor of the Scots. 

Kishore Mabubani in Singapore

Superpowers, Prophets, and Religion

Travel causes even the least observant to re-learn history. I began reading Ehsan Masood's Science and Islam (2009) last week, and I highly recommend the book. 

From what I gather so far, a world with two primary superpowers is not new. Masood mentions the Greek-Persian rivalry several times. (From my museum visits, I know the hatred between these two empires was so fierce, the Greeks engraved faces of defeated/dead Persians on their mead mugs.) 

Less predictable is the path of a new superpower. As America and the Soviet Union continued a costly rivalry from 1945-1991 and then from 2000 until 2016, China took advantage of their inattention, becoming a new superpower in just twenty years (1995-2015). No country can maintain supremacy if it expends energy and wealth fighting multiple fronts over an extended time period, a lesson every empire seems to forget. 

The Persian Sassanids and the Byzantine (Orthodox) Christians were similarly occupied with each other, allowing the untrained Arab Umayyad tribes and Bedouins to eclipse both empires within thirty years. Interestingly, such victories against outsiders occurred after Muhammad's (PBUH) death. For all the talk of the Prophet Muhammad's (PBUH) strategic prowess, his military career--as opposed to his economic and philosophical one--lasted only ten years, towards the end of his life, from 622 to 632, and after his first wife's death. (The Prophet Muhammad (ﷺ) was born in 570 A.D.) 

A diversion: Muhammad (PBUH) initially fled to Medina to escape assassination attempts; however, the polytheistic elites, his brethren in Mecca, continued to pursue him. Only after he moved from Mecca, his birthplace, to Medina in 622--when he was approximately 50 years old--did he authorize violence under the express limitation of self-defense:

Permission [to fight] has been given to those who are being fought, because they were wronged. And indeed, Allah is competent to give them victory. (Qu'ran, 22:39) 

Furthermore, Muhammad (PBUH) testified he was visited by the angel Gabriel/Jibril in 610 A.D.--at the age of 40--meaning he opposed elites and their excesses before receiving divine revelations, even though he belonged to the influential Qurayshi tribe. Like most changemakers, he was a rebel early on, disgusted by materialism (see Jesus's actions, overturning tables of moneychangers at temple), making friends with outsiders, including but not limited to African slaves. (FYI: though Abu Bakr, Muhammad's successor, was said to have light skin, we don't know if "light skin" referred to light brown or some other color.) 

Thus, for most of his life, Muhammad (PBUH) gained influence and protection through two sources: first and foremost, his older wife, an affluent, established merchant who trusted the younger Muhammad in part because he disdained materialism; and second, the poor, especially slaves, whom he freed, co-opted, and elevated into positions of authority (see stories of Bilal ibn Rabah, Salman Al-Farsi, and Suhayb ar-Rumi aka Sohaib ibn Sinan). ["Many of those who fought for Islam in the early years were among the poorest in the region." (Masood, pp. 24)] Regarding the second source, Muhammad's (PBUH) openness to outsiders surely arose because he was orphaned at a young age. 

The Bible's New Testament is starkly different than the Koran on the matter of slavery.
See 1 Peter 2:18.

As for other historical topics, Masood doesn't cover the Sunni-Shia split in depth, but I'll try to summarize here: some Shia scholars argue Muhammad (PBUH) united the numerous tribes and peoples of Arabia under a monotheistic and Abrahamic banner, only to have his work destroyed after his death in a military coup defying his succession wishes as set forth in his Ghadir Khumm speech. The Sunnis, for their part, see no conflict because Ali ibn Abi Talib, Muhammad's chosen successor, was eventually made into a Caliph and was too young to command a leadership position at the time of Muhammad's (PBUH) death. (Ali was eventually murdered in 661 in present-day Iraq.) 

Being too young didn't stop the Europeans from choosing successors,
perhaps their way of ensuring the military's influence.

If they want to pursue the matter further, the Shias might argue Umar/Omar--the same person who pledged allegiance to Ali at Ghadir Khumm--altered the Prophet's intended inheritance (the Fadak estate) to his daughter, Fatima Zahra, allegedly causing her to suffer a miscarriage and death less than three months after Muhammad's (PBUH) death. (Muhammad once said, "Fatima is a part of me. Whoever makes her angry, makes me angry.") The Sunnis may counter by saying succession is rarely a smooth process--almost every caliph after Muhammad (PBUH) and Abu Bakr was assassinated or poisoned, not just Ali ibn Abi Talib. Additionally, the Fadak estate was eventually returned to Fatima's heirs by an Ummayyad caliph. 

[Timeline: Abu Bakr (632 to 634AD), includes Ridda Wars (Arabic: حروب الردة‎) aka the Wars of Apostasy from 632 to 633; Umar I (634 to 644); Uthman (644 to 656); Ali (656 to 661)] 

Furthermore, while Husayn ibn Ali, Muhammad's (PBUH) grandson, was murdered under the Sunni Ummayads, their ancestors did not specifically target the Shias--after all, the Ummayads lost to the Abbasids, direct descendants of the prophet Muhammad, who were also Sunni. According to Professor M. Umaruddin of Aligarh University, the "Abbasids put to death not only all the members of Ummayad family but also all their supporters. They disillusioned the Shi'as by killing them wholesale." (The Ethical Philosophy of Al-Ghazzali) 

Succession and internecine feuds were common in Europe, too.

In fact, both the Sunnis and Shia can point to a third interloper, the Khawarij group, as the source of division within Islam. The Khawarij (aka the Seceders) were about 12,000 people, a hardline sect that refused to accept Ali's governance, eventually assassinating him. 

In any case, after 755 A.D. and after the end of Ummayad rule, "Persian culture and civilization asserted itself dominantly and triumphantly in the Muslim world." (Id., pp. 10) "Shi'ism in particular appealed to the Persians, who further developed the Shi'ite doctrines of the Imamate and evolved most of the transcendental theories about it. The two main sects of the Sh'ias, the sect of the Seven and the sect of the Twelve appeared during this period," a split once again caused by the familiar issue of succession. The Sixth Imam, Ja'far Al-Sadiq, disinherited his eldest son Isma'il, nominating his younger son Musa al-Kazim instead. It seems the Twelvists chose incorrectly, disappearing circa 873 AD, leaving the "Seventies" to follow the son of Is'mail, a man named Muhammad who favored allegories, storytelling, and even wine to interpret the Quran. (Id.) (Were Rumi, born around 1207, and his mentor Shams, born around 1185, influenced by the Seventies? I don't know.)  

As I was reading Masood's book, I realized another pattern in power replacement: the presence of a single unexpected defeat leading to the collapse of a long-standing empire. We've all heard of Napoleon's Waterloo and Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union (starting in June 1941, with the winter in November 1941 destroying Germany's morale), but what about the battle of Yarmuk in Jordan in 636, where about 35,000 Arab Muslims defeated a Byzantine force of 100,000? Or the Battle of Badr in 624, where Muhammad's army of 313 men defeated almost 1,000 Arabs from Mecca? 

I'm reminded of Ernest Hemingway's quote about bankruptcy/collapse coming gradually then suddenly, a sentiment that seems to apply perfectly to empires in decline after an unexpected military defeat. 

Another pattern discussed in Masood's book is the speed by which a center of commerce or influence can shift. The Ummayads moved the center of operations from Mecca to Damascus, and Baghdad's intellectuals also seem to have moved to Damascus. Similarly, Constantinople immediately became an important city after the Byzantines moved the center of Christianity away from Rome. 

Yet, all empires drove away distinguished minorities even as they attracted intellectuals and new residents. For example, the Byzantines excluded Nestorians, who were Christians, but who had a different interpretation of Christ's role. Masood describes the Byzantines as fundamentalists who insisted on "a single interpretation of the nature of Christ," displacing minorities and non-conformist Christians as far away as China. 

It got me thinking: for most of human history, groups of minorities were rarely able to tell their stories in documents that survived intact, so we lack full knowledge about declining social cohesion and the numerous escalations that led to expulsions. Such gaps make it almost impossible to study complete patterns in historical displacement, rendering history books woefully incomplete. Consequently, when studying history, remember: you are learning a sliver of a sliver of a moment in time. Be humble. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2019)

Bonus 1: Europeans were not scientifically advanced until they came into contact with post-Islamic Arab civilization. See https://bahai-library.com/cobb_islamic_contributions_civilization#7 

"[V]irtually all the science and technology of the classic world had already been passed on to Europe by the Arabs - a process which had begun before 1100 and was completed by the time Constantinople fell. Although this Arab revival of classic learning was the chief influence in Europe's scientific awakening, this fact has been popularly disregarded." 

Algebra is an Arabic term. (So is mocha, in case you didn't know.) As for freedom, the first declaration of human rights comes from the Persians. See http://www.persepolis.nu/persepolis-cyrus.htm 

"The Declaration of Human Rights written by Cyrus the Great has been hailed as the first charter of human rights, predating the Magna Carta by nearly two millenniums." 

Finally, one reason the Persian Empire lasted around 430 years (224 to 651 A.D.)--longer than the Greeks and Romans (14 to 395 A.D.)--is because it was one of the most tolerant empires in the history of the world. 

Bonus II: Lisa Ling, in 2019, unintentionally showed a significant overlap between Arab Islam's and Genghis Khan's military success: "I think also in this period of class divide is really a moving one, because he was this character [Khan] who was a slave at one time himself, went on to conquer two thirds of the population of the earth, because he elevated people, he elevated slaves, and the lowest level of human to rise up in his army." 

A Bet on India vs. Japan: Arigato

I made a bet today with an Indian-American investor at the LKY School of Public Policy in Singapore. He is bullish on India and South Korea, whereas I am bullish on Japan. Incredibly, one of his arguments favoring India was citing Pakistan's bankruptcy (on a balance of payments metric) after the U.S. significantly decreased financial aid--as if being next to an allegedly unstable government with nuclear know-how is somehow advantageous. (The idea of being a local hegemon without competition is overrated in sane circles. The goal should be to become much better than your neighbors and trading partners, but not vastly so, lest you cause unpredictable dislocations.) 

From Bloomberg (2018)

Below is the email I sent to memorialize the conversation: 

Ten years from now, January 16, 2029, let’s chat, preferably in person over chai. 

You believe India will be both happier and economically stronger than Japan. I disagree. Japan has no enemies today other than its own past and its own resistance to controlled immigration. 

Meanwhile, India has the Kashmir issue; fluid borders; a nearby Pakistan with nuclear weapons (deployable with covert assistance from Russia); multiple languages; unfortunate racial demarcations because of the Hindu caste system's historical impact; and an economy where agriculture takes the lion’s share of employment. 

Ten years is not enough time to overcome such hurdles. Had you said 2050, I’d consider you competent. As it stands, “head up one’s arse” seems more apt. 

Jerran Young: Passing the Ball all the Way to the NBA?

There are two kinds of passers in basketball: the flashy "Pistol" Pete Maravich, Jason "White Chocolate" Williams, Earvin "Magic" Johnson variety, and the true PG type: John Stockton, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Mark Jackson, and Deron Williams. Unsurprisingly, true PGs rack up more assists over time. 

When I travel, I try to attend minor league sports games because it's a fun, inexpensive way to get to know a country. Basketball in particular is growing steadily in popularity, and American-born players, usually African-American, are responsible for its growth worldwide. I had the privilege of seeing Bobby Knight-coached Mike Singletary in both Indonesia and Singapore, and I now believe the Singapore Slingers' Jerran Young deserves a spot on an NBA roster. 

Young's passing is a work of art. No movement is wasted, no angle left inefficient. Despite plenty of action on the floor, I found myself just wanting to watch Young pass the ball to his teammates. 

Additionally, Young takes high-IQ shots, plays hard on defense (he had a come-from-behind block reminiscent of Tayshaun Prince on Reggie Miller), and is generally known as level-headed. If he has a weakness, it is his inability to hit the three-point shot consistently and his difficulty against stronger players in the post. Nevertheless, if America cannot find a place for him on an NBA G-League team soon, an entire generation of future players may never see a true PG or a pass the way it was meant to be. 

© Matthew Rafat (2019)