I made a bet today with an Indian-American investor at the LKY School of Public Policy in Singapore. He is bullish on India and South Korea, whereas I am bullish on Japan. Incredibly, one of his arguments favoring India was citing Pakistan's bankruptcy (on a balance of payments metric) after the U.S. significantly decreased financial aid--as if being next to an allegedly unstable government with nuclear know-how is somehow advantageous. (The idea of being a local hegemon without competition is overrated in sane circles. The goal should be to become much better than your neighbors and trading partners, but not vastly so, lest you cause unpredictable dislocations.)
Below is the email I sent to memorialize the conversation:
Ten years from now, January 16, 2029, let’s chat, preferably in person over chai.
You believe India will be both happier and economically stronger than Japan. I disagree. Japan has no enemies today other than its own past and its own resistance to controlled immigration.
Meanwhile, India has the Kashmir issue; fluid borders; a nearby Pakistan with nuclear weapons (deployable with covert assistance from Russia); multiple languages; unfortunate racial demarcations because of the Hindu caste system's historical impact; and an economy where agriculture takes the lion’s share of employment.
Ten years is not enough time to overcome such hurdles. Had you said 2050, I’d consider you competent. As it stands, “head up one’s arse” seems more apt.
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| From Bloomberg (2018) |
Ten years from now, January 16, 2029, let’s chat, preferably in person over chai.
You believe India will be both happier and economically stronger than Japan. I disagree. Japan has no enemies today other than its own past and its own resistance to controlled immigration.
Meanwhile, India has the Kashmir issue; fluid borders; a nearby Pakistan with nuclear weapons (deployable with covert assistance from Russia); multiple languages; unfortunate racial demarcations because of the Hindu caste system's historical impact; and an economy where agriculture takes the lion’s share of employment.
Ten years is not enough time to overcome such hurdles. Had you said 2050, I’d consider you competent. As it stands, “head up one’s arse” seems more apt.
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