Tuesday, December 9, 2008

An Auto Bailout is Unjust


Here's an audacious question: How is an auto bailout not preferential corporate welfare?

There is no contention that America suffers from an automobile shortage. Honda and Toyota are perfectly capable of increasing production to fill in any gap caused by a GM and Chrysler bankruptcy (I don't mention Ford, because it appears to be the healthiest of the Big Three). Meanwhile, Japanese car companies have created thousands of jobs in the South and are schooling Americans in how to run an efficient, profitable auto manufacturing operation.

To its credit, the UAW has responded to charges that it is asking American taxpayers to subsidize the Big Three's inefficiency. Unfortunately, its arguments are misleading. For example, the UAW has mentioned state incentives given to Japanese car companies as support for a federal bailout (See Autonews Article).

First, states like Alabama provided incentives to Japanese companies because the UAW was opposed to relocating to the deep South. (Southern states generally favor "right-to-work" laws, which are code for anti-union laws.) The UAW's refusal to support American production in the deep South allowed the Japanese to enter those states without competition. The UAW and the Big Three could have requested Southern state incentives, but they failed to do so on reasonable terms. As a result, any tax incentive given to other companies was due to the UAW's own unwillingness to be flexible. It's akin to losing a war because you refused to go to the most advantageous territory to fight--and then calling the other side dirty for going where you wouldn't.

Second, speaking of the Japanese, we criticized them for years because they bailed out their banks after their speculative bubble. Indeed, almost every American economics study found that bailing out inefficient companies exacerbated the Japanese recession. Just google "Japan's lost decade" for more. (Here's one particularly relevant link from a google search result: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/30/japan.japan)

Third, the Japanese car companies received only $3 billion since 1992--far below the UAW's request for $25 billion (see penultimate paragraph of Autonews article). The disparate amounts of incentives requested indicate that subsidies aren't the reason for the Big Three's woes. In addition, while it's easy to forget now, the Japanese took a major risk in coming to the South to do business. Just fifteen years ago, no major entity was considering investing billions of dollars in the deep South because of its less-than-cosmopolitan reputation. This reputation required the Japanese to take major risks, such as opening manufacturing plants in places where some residents had never met a Japanese person and where pro-white groups still exist.

There's a happy ending to the Japanese and their risk-taking. Although various Americans continue to refer to Southerners as uneducated and backwards, it is now apparent that these so-called "backward" Southerners have outworked the Midwestern UAW. (It will be interesting to see if Southerners will return the favor and call non-Southern workers lazy and handout-prone). In short, the Japanese should be lauded for taking a risk when the Big Three and UAW refused to consider the South as a viable business destination. Moreover, $3 billion is not what the UAW is demanding, making their reference to the South irrelevant.

The UAW's remaining argument is based on emotion. It talks about the loss of thousands of jobs, implying that without taxpayer monies, the Big Three's employees will be in breadlines and bankruptcy courts. By resorting to this argument, the UAW has taken a page out of Naomi Klein's Shock Doctrine. The UAW fails to mention any other option except demanding billions of dollars in taxpayer monies. For example, it fails to advocate increasing the length of time and amount of payments given to unemployed workers nationwide. Yet, the $15 to $25 billion requested could be used to extend unemployment benefits for all Americans, and at higher amounts. Using this method, no industry receives preference, and taxpayer money benefits Americans nationwide. After all, it's not just the auto workers being affected by this recession, but engineers, accountants, and food service workers. Don't these workers have families to support, too? By demanding money only for auto employees so they can continue in an inefficient business, the UAW is essentially admitting it wants preferential treatment over every single American worker who has been laid off and those who will be laid off. Its attitude is unacceptable if you believe that government should consider the welfare of all its people, not just one particular group.

The UAW's selfishness exposes another issue with an auto company bailout--the slippery slope. What will Congress do when other industries come knocking? Will taxpayers be forced to support all affected industries that happen to have highly paid lobbyists? Once Americans understand that Congress probably wouldn't take seriously a bailout request from restaurants waiters and waitresses, they have to ask why their government is focusing on the Big Three to the exclusion of other industries.

The only reason to provide an automobile bailout is because of the Big Three's legacy costs, which may be shifted onto taxpayers anyway through the PBGC. Unfortunately for taxpayers, it seems that all roads lead to pillaging of their wallets.

Update on December 21, 2008: a 12/20/08 WSJ letter pointed out that the Southern states didn't get loans--they received tax deductions, which are useless, unless the companies actually invest in a particular state and expect to make a profit. In other words, without the tax breaks, a state like Kentucky would get 0 dollars for its residents. But with the tax deductions, a company might come to Kentucky and bring jobs and other positive benefits--none of which would have happened without the tax incentives. So Kentucky and its residents received a net gain because of the tax incentives. GM and Chrysler, on the other hand, are asking for loans directly from taxpayers, which force Americans to own a stake in American car companies and which do not create new jobs. The loans are high-risk and it remains to be seen whether American taxpayers will come out ahead.

Update on 12/23/08: Madoff's investors are already asking for a taxpayer bailout:

"There's no doubt that hearings will be held on this, and some government aid is a very logical request," said Robert Schachter, an attorney with New York-based Zwerling, Schachter & Zwerling, which is representing several Madoff victims. "If we're bailing out Wall Street and the auto industry, maybe these individuals should be bailed out too."

Can you say, "slippery slope"?

Basketball: Don Nelson

The San Francisco Magazine interviewed Golden State Warriors coach Don Nelson (October 2008 edition). They emphasized his humble beginnings:

By 1976, when he retired as a player, Nelson had won five championship rings and paid off his house, yet he was anything but rich. In most years, he made around $30,000, and he still drove [Coach] Red Auerbach's hand-me-down Buick. His marriage was also on the rocks...His accountant said Nelson couldn't send his four kids to college. "He was always worried about money, trying to stay ahead," says Donnie [Nelson], who remembers moonlighting with his dad at YMCAs and Rotary Clubs where Nelson would give brief speeches, tossing out the same three jokes for $100 a pop. "Failure simply wasn't an option."

Sometimes, life's second acts are much more profitable. Mr. Nelson has not won an NBA championship as a coach.

On the player side, Corey Maggette is problematic for the Warriors. He plays like Kobe Bryant--if Kobe had mediocre shooting and defensive abilities. Essentially, the Warriors are left with a shooter without a conscience, but one who can't shoot consistently. Something tells me this won't end well, especially with the more experienced Stephen Jackson and Jamal Crawford needing to take at least 12 shots a game for the Warriors to be competitive. On the bright side, Al Harrington seems like he's doing better in New York.

The Baron-Davis-led Warriors were something special, and they will be missed. Right now, the Warriors need a consistent PG--like Chris Duhon, Jose Calderon, or Deron Williams--to keep their gonzo playing style from becoming self-destructive. Baron, shaky knee and all, provided stability to his team, and now, the Warriors have no one to provide steady passing and ball control. The Warriors should offer the Toronto Raptors a mutually beneficial deal: Maggette for Calderon, straight-up. Two other PGs to consider: Antonio Daniels (his quickness will fit perfectly with the Warriors) and local Stanford grad Brevin Knight. Even when Monta Ellis returns, the Warriors will need an experienced backup PG. Just my two cents.

Santa Clara County's Diversity

I've always thought the best way of learning was to listen to people. Living in Santa Clara County provides many opportunities for cross-cultural education. In my law practice, for example, I've had the opportunity to interact with people from all over the world.

The number of people in Santa Clara County who were born outside of the United States is around 40%. Most cities near ports or oceans tend to attract ambitious travelers, and San Francisco has attracted what appears to be some of the most ambitious Asians, who have brought their cultural values of education and family to California:

SJ Merc on Diversity

California may suffer from inept government--the budget crisis is still ongoing, for example--but the people who live here tend to be open-minded, which allows California government to make mistakes that would not be tolerated elsewhere. It remains to be seen whether California's signature open-mindedness and tolerant attitude will continue its status as a magnet for ambitious immigrants, or whether its high spending will cause a decline in competitiveness.

Love in the Time of Famine

For all those who think love should be analyzed in terms of economics, here is your article:

http://www.cambridgeblog.org/2008/09/james-flynn-in-the-new-scientist

The crucial thing is whether men operate in a seller’s or a buyer’s market. As usual, market analysis oversimplifies, but it isolates an important “exchange”: women provide sex and men “pay,” ideally by helping to support children. When viable men are scarce, they can get sex without paying a high price. On the other hand, women who want children must provide sex and hope for a husband, rather than being able to expect one.

Can you feel the romance just oozing from the page? What palpable romance you bring, sir.

Hat tip to E.S. Fortune for the link.

Santa Clara Magazine and Hyperinflation

I graduated from Santa Clara Law School and get their alumni magazine, The Santa Clara Magazine. The managing editor, Steven Saum, in the most recent edition (Vol. 50, No. 3), talks about hyperinflation:

A few years after the Soviet empire collapsed, I lived in Ukraine, in a town where Russian officers were once sent into exile, and I counted among my friends those whose life savings were devoured overnight by hyperinflation: when money set aside--bit by bit, payday by payday--for two decades in anticipation of a daughter's wedding in the end only covered the cost for half a watermelon at the reception.

He writes such an eloquent defense of fiscal responsibility, I had to share it. The fact remains that when the government prints money, it causes inflation--perhaps not immediately, but eventually, the chickens come home to roost. It is worth repeating the fact that inflation is the #1 enemy of the average citizen, who, like Mr. Saum says, works hard to save a little money, bit by bit, only to see external forces mock his patience.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Jaromir Jagr a Libertarian?

In The Atlantic's December 2008 edition, Jaromir Jagr, a former All-Star U.S. hockey player, sounds positively libertarian: 

"I came to Omsk [Siberia] because I wanted to. Here in Russia, you have real freedom, which is not like U.S. freedom. Back there you have so many rules." He smiled. 

See how fast the world moves? Mr. Jagr's jersey number is 68, to commemorate his Czech heritage and the 1968 "Prague Spring," when Czechoslovakia enacted a series of economic and political reforms. The Soviets opposed the reforms, which called for a decentralized government, and invaded Czechoslovakia in response, occupying it until 1990. 

A decentralized government, of course, is a hallmark of American-style governance. Mr. Jagr, an avowed anti-communist and supporter of the 1968 Prague Spring, now lives in Russia. The world has seemingly flipped overnight. America is being called the land of Soviet-style laws, while Russia has the designation as the land of "real freedom." 

From my perspective, much credit needs to be given to the Department of Homeland Security for taking us away from the America our founders envisioned. 

Oh, the shame.

Barry's Picks

Barry Ritholtz, who manages around 100 million dollars, talks about investing:

We are now running about 70% cash, which is inordinately high, but some of the names we’re watching, and have owned in the past, are NuVasive [NUVA], a medical-device company, Stanley Works [SWK], a great infrastructure story, LG Display [LPL] and Luminex [LMNX]. Industries we like are infrastructure, defense, biotech and medical devices.

It's good to see a Wall Street insider mentioning specific company names as opportunities for investment. As for me, I do believe the market will go up, but the question is whether Obama's swearing-in in late January 2009 will represent a firm baseline, or a temporary peak for the stock market.