Natural Gas Partnership

Russia, Iran, and Qatar may create a natural gas partnership/cartel, similar to OPEC:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081021/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_gas_cartel

Think now would be a good time to invite Russia into the G-7?

Here is what I said earlier on the G-7 (Earlier Post):

With those three new players [including Russia], the G-7 can exchange political capital for hard cash. Then, we can show them the advantages of being part of the club. Perhaps then, Russia might feel less inclined to continue to occupy Georgian soil and will avoid establishing a consortium of natural gas producers, which would include Iran.

AllThingsD on Yahoo and Yang

AllThingsD has a good post on Yahoo:

http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081021/yahoo-earnings-what-to-expect-when-youre-not-expecting-much/

I am surprised no one is mentioning Bostock anymore. He is more unpopular than Mr. Yang. I like Mr. Yang--don't forget, without him, there's no Yahoo at all.

Update:

Yahoo stock up around 5% in after-hours trading on 10/21/08. Here's why--Yahoo met expectations and earned 9 cents a share, excluding special items.

From
http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2008/10/20/daily40.html:

Marketing services revenue was $1.56 billion, 1 percent increase from the same period of 2007.

Excluding items, the company's income would have been $123 million, or 9 cents a share, compared to non-GAAP income of $153 million or 11 cents a share for the same period of 2007.

Analysts, on average, expected earnings of 9 cents a share on $1.37 billion in revenue.

Some more encouraging words from the earnings call itself. Susan Decker speaking:

We have no debt. We ended the third quarter with $3.3 billion of cash and marketable debt securities. As of the end of the quarter the value of our direct and indirect interests in the publicly traded securities of Yahoo Japan, alibaba.com and Gmarket were valued at approximately $7.9 billion in the public markets or over $5.50 a share.

Earnings, Yahoo and Calm before the Storm?

Yahoo (YHOO) releases earnings after the market close today. I am on pins and needles. CEO Yang should have some good news, and if not, he should consider a temporary sabbatical.

Yahoo isn't the only belle of this week's ball--tomorrow's the big event:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081021/the_day_ahead.html

All those major companies are reporting earnings. If the market doesn't drop more than one percent, I will be very, very happy. I am betting, perhaps foolishly, that most company-specific bad news is already priced in. Although I've reduced many positions, my retirement accounts are still around 80% in stocks and mutual funds.

Recession?

Apparently, a majority of U.S. states are now officially in a recession:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=6075580&page=1

I'm not sure what to make of this--usually, when the mainstream press starts calling a recession, we're in its middle or late stages, not the beginning.

Anyway, the above chart isn't sad or tragic--we've become somewhat desensitized to recession calls. If you want to see something really sad, read up on Mattie Stepanek. Keep the Kleenex nearby before you make the jump:

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=6069915&page=1

Scott Burns on Financial Nitwits

Scott Burns raises an interesting and terrifying issue--what happens when all those ARMs adjust upwards? I see an "uh oh" in the future...

http://assetbuilder.com/blogs/scott_burns/archive/2007/08/10/the-nitwit-sector.aspx

Also, if financial services is 20% of all market value, what is going to replace it as its percentage shrinks? I don't see any killer apps on the horizon--do you?

Peggy Noonan on Sarah Palin

Peggy Noonan, one of my favorite columnists, has broken party lines and questioned the Republican Party's VP choice:

http://www.peggynoonan.com/article.php?article=438

Talk about a true maverick.

The Two-Headed Monster

Denis MacShane, in this quarter's WQ (Autumn 2008, p. 51), reminds us that we desperately need a third party:

I'm reminded of President Julius Nyerere's joking retort decades ago to American visitors who criticized his one-party state in Tanzania. The United States is a one-party state, too, he would say, but since America is so big, it takes two parties to do the job.

Touché.