Barry Diller had an interesting interview today in the WSJ.
You really want to get a headache? Try to understand Internet advertising. Social networking advertising is being discounted because there is so much inventory [of available ad spots], and because methods have not yet been found to make it very effective. Will that get figured out? I absolutely believe it will. What form will it take? Absolutely unknown.
Mark Cuban seems to have found a potential solution/form in www.hulu.com
"And if an epitaph be my story, I'd have a short one ready for my own: I had a lover's quarrel with the world." -- Robert Frost
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Monday, October 6, 2008
Update: DJIA Down 550 Points
Yes, it's a bloodbath today in the markets, but I am buying. In fact, I've spent more money today than I ever have, if you include my 401k purchases. As for individual stock picks, I bought GOOG, STT, YHOO, GE, and even some WYNN. Visa (V) looked interesting, too. Remember, Visa and Mastercard don't loan anyone money--they're just middlemen who get a transaction fee. In contrast, Discover and American Express have a more risky practice of loaning money themselves to certain customers or exposing some of their own assets to risk. I predict this recession will be over by May 2009, having started in December 2007. I hope to flip GOOG this week.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Best...Spoof...Ever
© Columbia Business School Follies
http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/organizations/follies/Follies/Welcome.html
Mark Cuban on How to Get Rich
More evidence Mark Cuban is a straight-talking genius:
http://blogmaverick.com/2008/10/04/how-to-get-rich/
I identify with the ketchup and mustard sandwiches (for me, it was Jack in the Box's 99 cent chicken sandwiches). I have a long way to go before even getting a tiny fraction of Cuban's net worth, but I am happy I currently have no debt after going to law school.
http://blogmaverick.com/2008/10/04/how-to-get-rich/
I identify with the ketchup and mustard sandwiches (for me, it was Jack in the Box's 99 cent chicken sandwiches). I have a long way to go before even getting a tiny fraction of Cuban's net worth, but I am happy I currently have no debt after going to law school.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Dave Ramsey's Plan
It's a moot point now, but here was Dave Ramsey's proposed plan:
http://www.daveramsey.com/common_sense_fix.txt
I mention it only because it recommends eliminating the capital gains tax entirely. His rationale is that rich people will use their own money to invest in the market--rather than risk not beating inflation by staying in cash or 2% money market funds--and the market will rise again on the backs of the upper class's investments, not general taxpayers. You have to admit, it's an interesting idea.
http://www.daveramsey.com/common_sense_fix.txt
I mention it only because it recommends eliminating the capital gains tax entirely. His rationale is that rich people will use their own money to invest in the market--rather than risk not beating inflation by staying in cash or 2% money market funds--and the market will rise again on the backs of the upper class's investments, not general taxpayers. You have to admit, it's an interesting idea.
Stocks Update, October 3, 2008
What a crazy day. After the House passed the bailout bill, the stock market actually went down. I made several trades and managed to do reasonably well, except I re-bought STT too soon after selling. I am currently experiencing a loss on STT and hope to sell within two weeks.
Also, the percentages for EMC and Yahoo are slightly off, because I dipped into my non-retirement accounts to buy some shares. I am losing a few hundred dollars on the trades in my non-retirement funds, but nothing that significantly impacts the percentages below.
I added MGM to my open positions at about 2,000 dollars' worth. Vegas relies on now-nervous California citizens for much of its income, but I am willing to bet a small amount that Vegas has some more tricks up its sleeve. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Dubai provide the 500 billion dollars needed to complete the latest MGM project. I still don't like MGM's CEO, J. Terrence Lanni, so I probably won't add to my MGM position.
My major positions are now STT, YHOO, SWZ, and GXC. Yahoo stock seems priced far too low.
Open Positions
CCT = -7.95
EMC = -13.58
EZU = -16.73
GXC = -12.15
MGM = -3.45
IF = -33.37
STT = -8.45 (afterhours price)
SWZ = -12.62
VPL = -13.80
YHOO = -16.09
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 13.82%]
[138.19/10]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; MOS (10.4%) [10/6/08 to 10/8/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; STT (2.68%) [10/1/08 to 10/3/08]; STT (0.4%) [10/3/08 to 10/7/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.57%]
[60.78 / 17 trades; as of 10/8/08]
Daytrades:
C = +11.49 (09/01/08)
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
STT = +0.3
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 3.35%]
16.79/5
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 20.67%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to October 3, 2008 (1099.23)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Also, the percentages for EMC and Yahoo are slightly off, because I dipped into my non-retirement accounts to buy some shares. I am losing a few hundred dollars on the trades in my non-retirement funds, but nothing that significantly impacts the percentages below.
I added MGM to my open positions at about 2,000 dollars' worth. Vegas relies on now-nervous California citizens for much of its income, but I am willing to bet a small amount that Vegas has some more tricks up its sleeve. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Dubai provide the 500 billion dollars needed to complete the latest MGM project. I still don't like MGM's CEO, J. Terrence Lanni, so I probably won't add to my MGM position.
My major positions are now STT, YHOO, SWZ, and GXC. Yahoo stock seems priced far too low.
Open Positions
CCT = -7.95
EMC = -13.58
EZU = -16.73
GXC = -12.15
MGM = -3.45
IF = -33.37
STT = -8.45 (afterhours price)
SWZ = -12.62
VPL = -13.80
YHOO = -16.09
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 13.82%]
[138.19/10]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; MOS (10.4%) [10/6/08 to 10/8/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; STT (2.68%) [10/1/08 to 10/3/08]; STT (0.4%) [10/3/08 to 10/7/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.57%]
[60.78 / 17 trades; as of 10/8/08]
Daytrades:
C = +11.49 (09/01/08)
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
STT = +0.3
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 3.35%]
16.79/5
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 20.67%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to October 3, 2008 (1099.23)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
California Out of Money?
According to Reuters, California Treasurer Bill Lockyer said the most populous U.S. state's cash reserves may be exhausted near the end of October, and various state-funded services are at risk of grinding to a halt.
Governor Schwarzenegger is apparently going to ask the federal government for 7 billion dollars. Good timing--after 700 billion, 7 billion is going to seem eminently reasonable.
When Californians vote on their various propositions, they should remember California's budget problems (i.e., no money). Almost every Proposition requires more money. When in doubt, vote "no." The only Proposition I will be voting for is Prop 11. Everything else seems to require money Californians don't have.
Governor Schwarzenegger is apparently going to ask the federal government for 7 billion dollars. Good timing--after 700 billion, 7 billion is going to seem eminently reasonable.
When Californians vote on their various propositions, they should remember California's budget problems (i.e., no money). Almost every Proposition requires more money. When in doubt, vote "no." The only Proposition I will be voting for is Prop 11. Everything else seems to require money Californians don't have.
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