Funny: Don't Buy Stuff You Cannot Afford

Steve Martin and the best SNL financial skit of all time--If You Can't Afford It, Don't Buy It!

http://snltranscripts.jt.org/05/05lbuy.phtml

Simple and brilliant financial advice. Just goes to confirm that the new millennium is the age of the comic.

General Electric (GE)

General Electric (GE) is known as a perennial blue chip. But it is also a finance company--see Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axyID3B8K5bU&refer=home

GE holds about $5.3 billion in residential mortgage-backed securities as of June 30, down from $5.8 billion at the end of the first quarter.

GE also reduced its commercial mortgage-backed securities to $2.7 billion, down from $2.8 billion held as of March 31. The company also said it reduced its exposure to subprime credit in its residential mortgage-backed securities to $1.7 billion from $1.8 billion in the first quarter.

It's impossible to gauge the true value of underlying assets because almost all major companies dabbled in complex financial instruments--this is one reason markets are so volatile.

One tip: if you're driving to Mexico from California with a rental car, consider buying GE insurance. Your California insurance does not typically cover liability in Mexico:

http://www.gemexicoautoins.com/

http://www.gemexicoautoins.com/WhyMexIns.html

As you can see, even with the bad loans, GE has plenty of great products.

July 25, 2008: WSJ Letters to the Editor

I've been reading the Wall Street Journal for years, and I've never seen better letters published on the issue of income taxes. From July 25, 2008 newspaper:

By Sim Pace, from Arlington, VA--the spirit of Jefferson shines bright:

"[T]he top 50% of taxpayers paid 97.1% of income taxes in 2006...Isn't that the well-known definition of democracy, the poorest 51% of the population tyrannizing the richest 49%? I suspect Sen. Obama would like to see the pendulum swing even further and have the top third of taxpayers pay all the income taxes, then the other well-known definition of democracy will have been validated: two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for dinner.

By Bruce Kebbekus from Hotchkiss, CO:

It should be mentioned that letting about half the citizens escape and pay no income taxes will lead, and probably has already led, to voter disinterest and bad government. Too many have no stake in the game.

By Harold Arkoff from Calabasas, CA:

California...receives back from Washington a smaller percentage of income taxes than it pays. A greater burden is placed on the local population to pay for state services which must be paid for by other sources of revenue..."Their fair share" can have more than one meaning. Is California getting a fair share?

What do D.C. and Delaware produce? They are usually in the highest brackets in terms of per capita GDP by state. See

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm

Delaware has attracted almost all the major banks to its state by having a pro-business platform. Also, most of us didn't elect the Delaware Chancery Court to decide economic legal issues, but its opinions make waves nationally in business matters. This small state and D.C. have made themselves epicenters of influence despite their unimpressive physical statures (D.C. is a swamp after all).I t's commendable to see a small state and a district attract so much business and influence. At the same time, one wonders why California and Texas citizens don't project themselves as well as these smaller entities. Is this a case of Lennie and George, as Mr. Arkoff implies in his letter?

Money Tips

Here is a fun article with money tips from famous people, including Steven Levitt and Derek Jeter:

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/105452/The-Smartest-Advice-I-Ever-Got

I need to think about Mr. Levitt's advice more. Does the advice also apply to small businesses with inconsistent income streams?

Across the Pond: American vs. British Women

I have a soft spot in my heart for the United Kingdom. I attended primary school for a short while in Edinburgh and still have family in London. I was a passenger in my first Ferrari ride (a GTO) in London, and the chocolates and sweets are incredibly richer and better than in the States. Of course, I think British women are wonderful as well. But an article disputes that point, and it is so hilarious and so different from the politically-correct publications we have in the U.S., I had to share:

Initial salvo (Tad Safran):

http://women.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/women/beauty/article3029451.ece [Apologies--link has expired.]

[T]he girl giving the [beauty] advice actually did think her friend looked adorable and it was simply like one cannibal asking another if it’s wrong to eat human flesh. Ultimately, English women are like men doing DIY. No matter how lost they are, they refuse to call in professional help.

A perfect example of this was presented to me last week. I was set up with Sophie (I have changed the name) by married friends. Sophie was a truly beautiful girl I used to be friends with, but hadn’t seen in 15 years. I was surprised to hear that she was still single and was excited to meet her again. At dinner, I found myself sitting opposite something that surely would have been happier hunting for truffles in the forests of France or grazing on the grassy marshlands of Canada... 


It’s not entirely Sophie’s fault, I suppose. My friend’s wife didn’t manage my expectations. Maybe it would have been better if she had said: “Tad, you enjoyed The Lord of the Rings. Would you like to meet an orc?”

Counterpoint:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-504812/The-man-called-British-women-ugly-goes-date--Liz-Jones.html

Follow-Up (with extra shovel):

http://women.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/women/beauty/article3056296.ece [Apologies--link has expired.]

Women of Britain: Bridget Jones’s Diary is not a documentary. It’s a work of fiction, a fairytale. The fact is that control-top granny pants are simply not a substitute for regular exercise, thoughtful grooming and a healthy diet.

Follow-Up from the Gentler(?) Sex:

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/woman/article571411.ece

I miss the U.K. sometimes. "Femur-sized Toblerones"...you just can't find that kind of acerbic writing anymore. If it weren't for the NY Times, the LA Times, and the Washington Post, Americans would be in danger of having no daily newspapers designed for an audience above a tenth-grade reading level. Sigh.

As for Tad Safran, he is writing at least partially tongue-in-cheek. He's smart enough to know if a woman can't figure out he's joking or laugh at herself a bit, he's probably better off without her.

We Don't Need No Stinking Capitulation

The economy looks bad, but when experts demand a 5% or more down day before buying stocks, we may have to wait a long time for a real recovery. Market experts, including Barry Ritholtz (http://bigpicture.typepad.com/), want capitulation, or one day of panic; however, the markets have placed rules to prevent large down days. The new rules against naked short selling are another brick in the wall against a Depression-era one-day dip. In addition, Grasso instituted trading curbs ("circuit breakers") to prevent exactly what the experts want. Meanwhile, Congress continues to consider regulations against ICE and other trading exchanges to prevent instability. If the experts and mutual fund managers want something the exchanges and government are actively preventing, even good economic data may get cast aside as we create a self-fulfilling sideways market.

The facts are that oil has come down from its high, and the American dollar is slowly recuperating. The dollar has already decreased so much the Mexican and Canadian currencies are the ones that look overvalued. The European Central Bank (ECB) has to maintain or increase interest rates to keep its superior edge on the dollar, and at some point, EU citizens will be screaming bloody murder when growth slows or stops. We forget that Europe has many powerful and influential companies that want to sell their own products abroad and are becoming angry at the U.S. dollar's weakness.

As for oil, barring an Israeli attack on Iran or vice-versa, oil will decrease in price. Commodities experts have been denying a supply issue for months. In the absence of a supply issue, oil prices will decrease as Americans use less oil--unless the law of supply and demand suddenly vanishes.

I am no Pollyanna, but with money markets offering 2%, and CDs not much better, if investors don't take some action, inflation (running around 5%) will destroy their purchasing power. Having said that, why is the market discounting technology companies, many of which have plenty of cash and were not involved directly in subprime, finance, or housing? If I'm Intel (INTC), Google (GOOG), ST Microelectronics (STM), Microsft (MSFT), Brocade Communications (BRCD), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), or MEMC (WFR), I'm beginning to wonder if the American stock market is an inefficient way of valuing my company. After Sarbanes-Oxley, why would a rational company want to have an IPO in this irrational market?

Disclosure: I own shares or plan on buying shares in the above companies.

Stocks Update, July 24, 2008

Numbers below are based on prices at the close of market on July 24, 2008.

Open Positions
EWM = -6.57
IF = -8.45
VNQ = -1.02

[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 5.34%]

Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from averages and overall record calculations)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
WYE = +2.4%

[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.97%]

Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%)

[Overall Record: Gained an average of 3.31% (avg has changed because of GOOG trade)]

Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)

[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]

Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 9.6%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day July 17, 2008 (1252.54)]

The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.