For some reason, I have always tried to highlight the bad news rather than the good. I suppose it keeps me humble, but really, I do it to ensure a sufficient amount of fear. Mark Cuban, owner of the Mavs, was once asked why, after making billions, he kept going. His answer: "Fear." In that vein, I am going to provide a "stocks update" on a day when the Dow and Nasdaq went down over 3%:
Open Positions
CNB = 0
EQ = 0
EWM = (slightly negative; 150 shares)
GE = 0 (slightly negative; 179 shares)
IF = -2.1
PFE = -6.4
PPS = +0.1
WYE = -2.6
Total: losing/negative 2.75%
I am not worried. Except for IF, these are all good dividend plays (meaning, they have enough cash flow or cash to pay their dividend over the next year). Even if Pfizer (PFE) has to "repatriate" (bring some money to its U.S. operations from abroad, thereby taking a tax hit) some cash to pay its dividend, I am guessing it will still do whatever it takes to pay the dividend.
Here is what my friend, who is a tax lawyer, said about repatriation--and it sounds like good news, rather than the bad news the general media is making about the possibility of repatriation:
I took international tax in law school but I am fuzzy on the subject not having reviewed it in awhile. The only thing I remember about repatriation is that foreign earnings of controlled foreign corporations were not subject to tax until they were brought back into the U.S. When the funds were brought back to the U.S., or repatriated, a corporation could then file some sort of election to exclude up to 80 - 90 percent of the repatriated funds from income.
I would guess that PFE would try and take advantage of that generous tax break on repatriated earnings if they did not want to risk cutting their dividend to U.S. shareholders.
If the tax hit is only 10 to 20%, that isn't so terrible. My hunch is that Pfizer's board sees its stock as a "widows and orphans" stock and won't cut the dividend for another year a half at least.
(Today, I bought 100 GE @ 30 and change; also, on June 9, I bought 29 more shares of GE at around 30.)
Overall, I am down about 1400 dollars since I sold off almost all of my holdings earlier. Most of the 1400 dollar loss is because of my recent large buy of Pfizer. My prediction last month or so was correct; i.e., that the market would suffer a large hit. For the most part, I heeded my own advice; otherwise, the damage would have been more severe.
Closed Positions:
Daytrades: PFE (0.5%)
MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), SCUR (15%) (held less than seven days; record in this category is a 5.2% average gain)
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
"And if an epitaph be my story, I'd have a short one ready for my own: I had a lover's quarrel with the world." -- Robert Frost
Friday, June 6, 2008
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Stocks Update
Today, I sold my 100 shares of MRK @ 38.57. Including the fact that a dividend will be paid, I am slightly ahead, but only by a few dollars. That lowers my averages in my closed positions.
In other news, Goldman Sachs cut Pfizer (PFE) to "neutral," with a price target of 22, causing PFE to go to 18.50 a share. I am not worried--if anything, this means the bad news is finally out of the way (and being cut by Goldman is definitely bad news). Now, value investors will enter as disenchanted stock holders exit. Plus, I only need PFE to go to 20-ish before making a decent short-term profit on the trades. I figure PFE will hit 20-ish in about a month or two, if not sooner.
I bought and sold a large position of PFE in about an hour today: bought 2000 PFE @ 18.49 and then sold at 18.57--made 200 bucks. Now, if I had held the shares for another 30 minutes, I would have made another 200 dollars in an hour and a half (400 dollars total). That's the issue with day-trading--if you blink at the wrong time, it costs you. As long as I am in the black, however, a few hundred here and there is inconsequential. Rule #1: don't be greedy. Or, as Cramer likes to say, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered." 'Tis true.
I bought some shares of PPS today at 34.37 as well. Pure value play and potential buyout target.
I bought 500 shares of CNB at $5.00/share, a little-known bank in Alabama (or, as they like to say down South, 'Bama). This one is a value and dividend play. Just two months ago or so, CNB sold 350 million dollars' worth of its stock for 8 dollars a share. I like the shares at 5 dollars, but don't ask me what I'll do if it hits $6.50.
I also bought 15 shares of YHOO so I could attend their shareholder meeting on August 1, 2008. For purposes of this blog, however, I will not report on trades consisting of positions with a cost basis (money spent to buy a company's shares) below 1,000 dollars.
Closed Positions:
Daytrades: PFE (0.5%)
MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), SCUR (15%) (held less than seven days; record in this category is a 5.2% average gain)
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
In other news, Goldman Sachs cut Pfizer (PFE) to "neutral," with a price target of 22, causing PFE to go to 18.50 a share. I am not worried--if anything, this means the bad news is finally out of the way (and being cut by Goldman is definitely bad news). Now, value investors will enter as disenchanted stock holders exit. Plus, I only need PFE to go to 20-ish before making a decent short-term profit on the trades. I figure PFE will hit 20-ish in about a month or two, if not sooner.
I bought and sold a large position of PFE in about an hour today: bought 2000 PFE @ 18.49 and then sold at 18.57--made 200 bucks. Now, if I had held the shares for another 30 minutes, I would have made another 200 dollars in an hour and a half (400 dollars total). That's the issue with day-trading--if you blink at the wrong time, it costs you. As long as I am in the black, however, a few hundred here and there is inconsequential. Rule #1: don't be greedy. Or, as Cramer likes to say, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered." 'Tis true.
I bought some shares of PPS today at 34.37 as well. Pure value play and potential buyout target.
I bought 500 shares of CNB at $5.00/share, a little-known bank in Alabama (or, as they like to say down South, 'Bama). This one is a value and dividend play. Just two months ago or so, CNB sold 350 million dollars' worth of its stock for 8 dollars a share. I like the shares at 5 dollars, but don't ask me what I'll do if it hits $6.50.
I also bought 15 shares of YHOO so I could attend their shareholder meeting on August 1, 2008. For purposes of this blog, however, I will not report on trades consisting of positions with a cost basis (money spent to buy a company's shares) below 1,000 dollars.
Closed Positions:
Daytrades: PFE (0.5%)
MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), SCUR (15%) (held less than seven days; record in this category is a 5.2% average gain)
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
And now, for something completely different...
Once in a while, I will post something that is completely unrelated to anything and everything. Below is a poem I wrote today:
Shimmering with sweat,
Eyes shut,
Heavy with the day’s labour,
She nestles her face in the womb of your arm.
You see a faint glow in the small room,
A room too small for this, you think,
And you see it comes from her.
A soft light reflects on her skin,
Not quite sorrel, not quite copper,
Vestiges of a trip to Utah,
A mark where an insect had its fill days ago.
She lies on the floor,
Ethereal.
A round face, quiet with sleep,
Minutes ago was not quite like that.
I rise, but remain close to the ground,
Like the insect who had its fill.
Shimmering with sweat,
Eyes shut,
Heavy with the day’s labour,
She nestles her face in the womb of your arm.
You see a faint glow in the small room,
A room too small for this, you think,
And you see it comes from her.
A soft light reflects on her skin,
Not quite sorrel, not quite copper,
Vestiges of a trip to Utah,
A mark where an insect had its fill days ago.
She lies on the floor,
Ethereal.
A round face, quiet with sleep,
Minutes ago was not quite like that.
I rise, but remain close to the ground,
Like the insect who had its fill.
Stocks Update
Today, I bought 600 shares of PFE at 18.92; 150 shares of EWM at 11.07; and 50 shares of EQ at 47.32; and 150 of WYE at 43.83. PFE has gone down too far, which makes no sense. A WSJ article actually said that the stock might go down to 10 to 12 dollars without the high dividend (the entire article was pablum, as far as I'm concerned). Sometime soon, there will be a day when most pharma goes up 3% on an analyst's upgrade of the sector. Personally, I just want to sell before November 2008, so I have plenty of time. I bought EWM for more international diversification. Also, being close to Singapore should help Malaysia's economy stay vibrant, even if only due to a spillover effect from foreign investments and deposits. Malaysia's "Second Home" program--basically allowing foreigners to buy a long term visitor visas in exchange for making a large deposit of funds in the country--is a very astute idea as well. And finally, I bought EQ solely for its dividend.
I might be able to sell all the pharma stocks by this Friday at a profit. MRK is already ex-dividend, and PFE just paid out its dividend.
Here is my record with respect to the stocks I bought after I started the first "Stocks Update" entry on May 23, 2008:
Open Positions
761 of PFE; losing 2.4% (bought at various times, but major purchase of 600 shares bought on June 4, 2007)
150 of EWM; losing 0.4% (bought on June 4, 2007)
100 of IF; losing 3% (bought on May 23, 2008; indicated long-term hold at time of purchase)
100 of MRK; losing 0.6% (bought on May 30, 2008)
250 of WYE; losing 0.7% (bought on May 30, 2008 and June 4, 2008)
50 of EQ; even (bought on June 4, 2008)
Record in open positions: negative/losing 1.42%
Closed Positions:
MMM and SCUR (held less than seven days; record in this category is a 7.75% average gain)
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
I might be able to sell all the pharma stocks by this Friday at a profit. MRK is already ex-dividend, and PFE just paid out its dividend.
Here is my record with respect to the stocks I bought after I started the first "Stocks Update" entry on May 23, 2008:
Open Positions
761 of PFE; losing 2.4% (bought at various times, but major purchase of 600 shares bought on June 4, 2007)
150 of EWM; losing 0.4% (bought on June 4, 2007)
100 of IF; losing 3% (bought on May 23, 2008; indicated long-term hold at time of purchase)
100 of MRK; losing 0.6% (bought on May 30, 2008)
250 of WYE; losing 0.7% (bought on May 30, 2008 and June 4, 2008)
50 of EQ; even (bought on June 4, 2008)
Record in open positions: negative/losing 1.42%
Closed Positions:
MMM and SCUR (held less than seven days; record in this category is a 7.75% average gain)
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
100th Post: "Magical Realism"
For my 100th post, I thought I'd do something different. I will share with you one of my favorite poems by a little-known Kashmiri poet, Agha Shahid Ali. The poem--which contains incredible imagery--is introduced by the simple, unassuming title, "Snowmen." Enjoy after clicking either one of the following two links:
http://www.salemstate.edu/sextant/v4n2/keyes_poems.htm
http://www.poetryfoundation.org/archive/poem.html?id=181394
Here is the last stanza:
No, they won't let me out of winter,
and I've promised myself,
even if I'm the last snowman,
that I'll ride into spring
on their melting shoulders.
After reading the full poem, take a moment to enjoy the images--a woman frozen by a man's embrace, a "snowman" riding into the future Spring--and then check out this link, which explains the poem a bit more:
From the above link:
I approached the poem “Snowmen”, from which these lines are taken as an immediate sensuous apprehension. It was later that I thought of its feminist implications. There are two things hidden in that poem. One is a poem by Wallace Stevens called “The Snowmen”. If you read it you won’t see the connection but it is there for me. The other is a scene that has haunted me for a long time from Wuthering Heights. The narrator is staying at Heathcliff’s house because there has been a terrible storm and the ghost of Katherine knocks on the window. She says, “I’m cold. Let me in”. He opens the window and the glass breaks somehow. He takes the hand of the ghost and rubs it against the glass and there is blood. It’s an amazing scene. Talk about magical realism. People think about that novel and they want neat answers. [Bronte’s] whole enterprise is that there are no neat answers. But to provide you with a neat answer: I’m thinking about my ancestry and the lost women in this ancestry who we never hear about. I know everything about my father, his father, his father’s father and so on for nine generations. But I know nothing before my grandmother. So I’m trying to find these lost women. These are difficult questions, there are no neat answers. You can have a feminist construct when you read that poem.
I love how Agha Shahid describes "Snowmen," but his explanation strikes me as too opaque. I would have never independently arrived at his "feminist" interpretation. After all, much of the poem focuses on male imagery, such as "his skeleton," "his breath," "a man of Himalayan snow," and of course, the title itself, "Snowmen." Shahid seems to be playing all sides by saying there are no neat answers, providing one, and then reminding us that there are no neat answers. For me, "Snowmen" means something different. It represents the immigrant experience and persevering through difficulty to ensure that previous generations--both male and female--did not toil in vain. That's how I interpret the poem, especially the last stanza, which is my favorite.
http://www.poetryfoundation.org/archive/poem.html?id=181394
Here is the last stanza:
No, they won't let me out of winter,
and I've promised myself,
even if I'm the last snowman,
that I'll ride into spring
on their melting shoulders.
After reading the full poem, take a moment to enjoy the images--a woman frozen by a man's embrace, a "snowman" riding into the future Spring--and then check out this link, which explains the poem a bit more:
[FYI: link no longer works] http://www.himalmag.com/2002/february/passing_1.htm
From the above link:
I approached the poem “Snowmen”, from which these lines are taken as an immediate sensuous apprehension. It was later that I thought of its feminist implications. There are two things hidden in that poem. One is a poem by Wallace Stevens called “The Snowmen”. If you read it you won’t see the connection but it is there for me. The other is a scene that has haunted me for a long time from Wuthering Heights. The narrator is staying at Heathcliff’s house because there has been a terrible storm and the ghost of Katherine knocks on the window. She says, “I’m cold. Let me in”. He opens the window and the glass breaks somehow. He takes the hand of the ghost and rubs it against the glass and there is blood. It’s an amazing scene. Talk about magical realism. People think about that novel and they want neat answers. [Bronte’s] whole enterprise is that there are no neat answers. But to provide you with a neat answer: I’m thinking about my ancestry and the lost women in this ancestry who we never hear about. I know everything about my father, his father, his father’s father and so on for nine generations. But I know nothing before my grandmother. So I’m trying to find these lost women. These are difficult questions, there are no neat answers. You can have a feminist construct when you read that poem.
I love how Agha Shahid describes "Snowmen," but his explanation strikes me as too opaque. I would have never independently arrived at his "feminist" interpretation. After all, much of the poem focuses on male imagery, such as "his skeleton," "his breath," "a man of Himalayan snow," and of course, the title itself, "Snowmen." Shahid seems to be playing all sides by saying there are no neat answers, providing one, and then reminding us that there are no neat answers. For me, "Snowmen" means something different. It represents the immigrant experience and persevering through difficulty to ensure that previous generations--both male and female--did not toil in vain. That's how I interpret the poem, especially the last stanza, which is my favorite.
Richard Fisher Understands the Real Enemy...Inflation
We know from centuries of evidence in countless economies, from ancient Rome to today's Zimbabwe, that running the printing press to pay off today's bills leads to much worse problems later on. The inflation that results from the flood of money into the economy turns out to be far worse than the fiscal pain those countries hoped to avoid...
Inflation is a sinister beast that, if uncaged, devours savings, erodes consumers' purchasing power, decimates returns on capital, undermines the reliability of financial accounting, distracts the attention of corporate management, undercuts employment growth and real wages, and debases the currency.
--Richard Fisher, Dallas Fed Reserve President and CEO
http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2008/fs080528.cfm
The above link contains the full text of the speech at the Commonwealth Club I attended last week. It doesn't include the Q&A session, but is still worth a look-see.
Inflation is a sinister beast that, if uncaged, devours savings, erodes consumers' purchasing power, decimates returns on capital, undermines the reliability of financial accounting, distracts the attention of corporate management, undercuts employment growth and real wages, and debases the currency.
--Richard Fisher, Dallas Fed Reserve President and CEO
http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2008/fs080528.cfm
The above link contains the full text of the speech at the Commonwealth Club I attended last week. It doesn't include the Q&A session, but is still worth a look-see.
Monday, June 2, 2008
Fun Shareholder Meetings
A friend once asked me about the most fun shareholder meetings to attend. Here is my list:
1. Apple, Inc. (AAPL) To believe how charismatic Steve Jobs is, you have to see him in person. Long-time shareholders always attend, and the techies ask intelligent questions and swap user tips with other shareholders. Plus, the Board is filled with top-level people, including recently, Al Gore.
2. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B). You can buy the "B" shares to get into this meeting, which were selling at around $4,390 (much less than the "A" shares, which cost $132,350 for one share as of June 2, 2008). Berkshire Hathaway is fun because of the Q&A session with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger; the live entertainment (Jimmy Buffett and Susan Lucci have appeared recently); and the annual video, which once showed Warren beating LeBron James in a one-on-one game (I still want to buy Warren's "1/8" number jersey, but they don't offer it anywhere!). Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffett work together so well, it's almost like seeing an elite, educational Laurel and Hardy show. In addition, there's lots of shopping to be done. I bought some great Fruit of the Loom underwear and some See's Candies at a discount.
Some caveats: the meeting's value depends a bit on the questions asked--if the questions asked are terrible, the meeting won't be as great. Also, this event has gotten so huge that it feels overcrowded--about 31,000 people attended this year. For example, I had to wait in line for about 45 minutes to partake in a food buffet. In addition, some of the events are spread out around Omaha, like Furniture Mart and Gorat's Steakhouse, so you need a car and GPS to be able to experience all the events.
3. Starbucks (SBUX). Starbucks' meeting is similar to Berkshire Hathaway's in the sense that a surprise guest comes every year to perform. In 2008, k.d. lang sang three beautiful songs, an experience worth attending just for her. Obviously, coffee is offered, but the meeting itself is the reason to attend. Starbucks usually unveils new goals and new items to the shareholders first, and I knew more about future plans than non-Seattle employees did for about a month after the meeting. A goody-bag is offered to shareholders on the way out. One downside--a huge line awaits all shareholders wanting to attend, so get there early and hope it doesn't rain!
4. Peet's (PEET). Peet's meeting is fun for several reasons. First, it is still a relatively small company, so the meetings feel like a family event. Second, the food and coffee are delicious. Third, sometimes the meeting is held at a roasting facility, which allows shareholders to get a sense of how the business is run.
5. Electronic Arts (ERTS). This one is a kick. If you want to see the environment in which video game designers work, check out this shareholder meeting. ERTS has an arcade, air hockey, foosball, and several other games, all for free. I spent an hour (okay, three) reliving my high school days in the arcade playing some John Madden football. Some other online games are apparently offered on the computers near the arcade, but I used that to check up on a work matter (I had to review a tentative court ruling the day of the meeting). ERTS has a Starbucks inside its company. You never have to leave the company, basically. It's a bit like Yahoo's set-up, where it's a little city within a company. The presentation also includes a preview of upcoming games on a big screen. And the best part of of it all? ERTS gives out a free video game to its attendees every year. Booyah!
6. Google (GOOG) is a new company, but it knows how to take care of shareholders. Food is offered (a friend told me they served filet mignon in 2008), and the founders sit on stools in casual-wear and answer questions in an informal setting.
7. Intuit (INTU). This one I mention only because they have given out valuable free software in the past. If you buy your Quicken software and live locally in Mountain View, CA, you might be better off just buying one share of the company and attending the meeting. The former CEO, Stephen Bennet, was very friendly at the meeting I attended a few years ago--he even replied to an email I sent. (I try to praise and point out responsive CEOs.)
Please add your own favorites in the "comments" section. I am always looking for fun shareholder meetings. I heard McDonald's and Coca-Cola's meetings are great, but I am not traveling across the country on my own dime for a shareholder meeting until I get more information. The big one I've neglected to mention is Walmart's annual meeting--it's supposed to be a big bash, but it's hard to take a few days off to travel to Arkansas and keep up on work.
Curt Hazlett, in a March 28, 2005 article, “Annual Meetings Can Be Valuable Tools for Journalists,” describes one reason I go to shareholder meetings–they offer valuable insight into a company:
http://www.businessjournalism.org/pages/biz/2005/03/
annual_meetings_can_be_valuabl/
1. Apple, Inc. (AAPL) To believe how charismatic Steve Jobs is, you have to see him in person. Long-time shareholders always attend, and the techies ask intelligent questions and swap user tips with other shareholders. Plus, the Board is filled with top-level people, including recently, Al Gore.
2. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B). You can buy the "B" shares to get into this meeting, which were selling at around $4,390 (much less than the "A" shares, which cost $132,350 for one share as of June 2, 2008). Berkshire Hathaway is fun because of the Q&A session with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger; the live entertainment (Jimmy Buffett and Susan Lucci have appeared recently); and the annual video, which once showed Warren beating LeBron James in a one-on-one game (I still want to buy Warren's "1/8" number jersey, but they don't offer it anywhere!). Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffett work together so well, it's almost like seeing an elite, educational Laurel and Hardy show. In addition, there's lots of shopping to be done. I bought some great Fruit of the Loom underwear and some See's Candies at a discount.
Some caveats: the meeting's value depends a bit on the questions asked--if the questions asked are terrible, the meeting won't be as great. Also, this event has gotten so huge that it feels overcrowded--about 31,000 people attended this year. For example, I had to wait in line for about 45 minutes to partake in a food buffet. In addition, some of the events are spread out around Omaha, like Furniture Mart and Gorat's Steakhouse, so you need a car and GPS to be able to experience all the events.
3. Starbucks (SBUX). Starbucks' meeting is similar to Berkshire Hathaway's in the sense that a surprise guest comes every year to perform. In 2008, k.d. lang sang three beautiful songs, an experience worth attending just for her. Obviously, coffee is offered, but the meeting itself is the reason to attend. Starbucks usually unveils new goals and new items to the shareholders first, and I knew more about future plans than non-Seattle employees did for about a month after the meeting. A goody-bag is offered to shareholders on the way out. One downside--a huge line awaits all shareholders wanting to attend, so get there early and hope it doesn't rain!
4. Peet's (PEET). Peet's meeting is fun for several reasons. First, it is still a relatively small company, so the meetings feel like a family event. Second, the food and coffee are delicious. Third, sometimes the meeting is held at a roasting facility, which allows shareholders to get a sense of how the business is run.
5. Electronic Arts (ERTS). This one is a kick. If you want to see the environment in which video game designers work, check out this shareholder meeting. ERTS has an arcade, air hockey, foosball, and several other games, all for free. I spent an hour (okay, three) reliving my high school days in the arcade playing some John Madden football. Some other online games are apparently offered on the computers near the arcade, but I used that to check up on a work matter (I had to review a tentative court ruling the day of the meeting). ERTS has a Starbucks inside its company. You never have to leave the company, basically. It's a bit like Yahoo's set-up, where it's a little city within a company. The presentation also includes a preview of upcoming games on a big screen. And the best part of of it all? ERTS gives out a free video game to its attendees every year. Booyah!
6. Google (GOOG) is a new company, but it knows how to take care of shareholders. Food is offered (a friend told me they served filet mignon in 2008), and the founders sit on stools in casual-wear and answer questions in an informal setting.
7. Intuit (INTU). This one I mention only because they have given out valuable free software in the past. If you buy your Quicken software and live locally in Mountain View, CA, you might be better off just buying one share of the company and attending the meeting. The former CEO, Stephen Bennet, was very friendly at the meeting I attended a few years ago--he even replied to an email I sent. (I try to praise and point out responsive CEOs.)
Please add your own favorites in the "comments" section. I am always looking for fun shareholder meetings. I heard McDonald's and Coca-Cola's meetings are great, but I am not traveling across the country on my own dime for a shareholder meeting until I get more information. The big one I've neglected to mention is Walmart's annual meeting--it's supposed to be a big bash, but it's hard to take a few days off to travel to Arkansas and keep up on work.
Curt Hazlett, in a March 28, 2005 article, “Annual Meetings Can Be Valuable Tools for Journalists,” describes one reason I go to shareholder meetings–they offer valuable insight into a company:
http://www.businessjournalism.org/pages/biz/2005/03/
annual_meetings_can_be_valuabl/
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