Monday, June 22, 2009

Neda jan

Neda Agha Soltan is Iran's undisputed hero. The most inspirational heroes are almost always the unintentional ones. For more on her story, see this excellent Time magazine (Robin Wright, June 21, 2009) link:

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1906049,00.html

It is over for the current Iranian regime. The only reason more Iranians aren't revolting right this second is because not all towns have internet access, so not all Iranians can see the government-sponsored violence and killings. America had a similar moment with Kent State. This is Iran's Kent State. It took several years after Kent State before America withdrew from Vietnam, but the moment the government shot American students, it lost credibility. It might take a few more years, but the current Iranian government has lost legitimacy. May the current Iranian regime burn in hell for the violence it has inflicted on innocent, courageous protesters.

Update on June 24, 2009: CNN has a wonderful article on Neda:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/23/iran.neda.profile/index.html

CDOs and Credit Default Swaps Explained

From Santa Clara Magazine (Summer 2009), here is Prof. Alexander J. Field's take on the economic crisis. He explains CDOs and credit default swaps particularly well:

CDOs emerged when financial institutions took a pool of mortgages and issued securities derived from them. Originally, mortgage-backed securities simply sold a right to a share of interest and principal payments from the underlying pool. Securitization reduced variance of the bond’s return, but the expected payout couldn’t really be different from that of the underlying mortgages. [Presumably, because the bond's payments were linked to actual mortgage payments.] CDO engineers, however, figured out how to perform the financial alchemy of turning junk into gold: Starting with a pool of risky mortgages, they created different grades, or tranches, of derivative securities...

Even then, some major investors and banks had to have known that the CDOs being issued weren't entirely halal/kosher. They demanded insurance:

Enter credit default swaps. For a small “premium,” institutions could insure themselves against the risk that the bonds might default. Since swaps were not technically insurance, they were beyond the reach of state regulators. American International Group (AIG) and other issuers did not maintain adequate reserves to meet collateral calls when mortgage defaults rose. In a sense, they simply pocketed the premiums without providing the insurance.

Oh, the mendacity.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Classic SNL

Classic SNL:

http://www.hulu.com/watch/4183/saturday-night-live-down-by-the-river

Quote of the Day

From the sublime Woody Allen film, Crimes and Misdemeanors:

Comedy is tragedy plus time.

If you like Law & Order, two of its major characters are in this 1989 film. One plays a hitman, and the other a rabbi. Everyone should see this great film, but if you are a Law & Order fan, you really need to see this film.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Random Thoughts (June 20, 2009)

1. Just read Zakaria's most recent Newsweek article--it was okay, but I loved this quote:

Elihu Root: "About half the practice of a decent lawyer consists in telling would-be clients that they are damned fools and should stop."

2. Iran's government seems confusing at first glance, but it's actually similar to the way American corporations operate. At the top, you have your Board of Directors (Supreme Leaders), who direct the executive officers (Guardian Council). The shareholders speak through their representatives (the President and Parliament), but the real power lies with the Board and the executive officers.

This analogy isn't exact, but the two processes are very similar. The result is similar also: ordinary shareholders--the common citizens--don't have much sway over major corporations--the country--unless they band together and vote as a bloc, which is logistically difficult to do.

3. I wanted to compliment our local courts' filing clerks. I usually deliver documents myself to the courthouse for filing. Except for two people over the last five years, everyone I've dealt with at the filing clerk level has been very professional. That's a great track record, especially because many of the clerks get rotated/transferred every year.

U.K. Crime

Britain's top cops have been caught red-handed:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/14/expenses-fraud-detectives-scotland-yard

Oh, the wickedness.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Note to Rupert Murdoch and the Newspaper Barons

Newspapers must have idiots running their business department. Newspapers price their product in ways that no other retailer would even consider. The current system penalizes long-term subscribers and rewards new ones. For example, the WSJ offers a $119 annual rate to new subscribers and then tries to charge existing customers a $398 renewal rate. That's like Macy's charging its best customers more money for a dress while offering a new, unproven customer a discount. Either give everyone the same price, or offer a discount to the proven subscribers.

If I ran the show, I'd charge a higher initial subscription, say, $200 to $400 a year. Then, each year, the rate would become progressively lower until reaching a minimum of say, $50 a year. However, to get the discounted rate, subscribers would have to agree to disclose some basic personal information useful to advertisers, like gender, age, education, and marital status (not political affiliation or financial information) and to return one advertising survey a year (either online or regular mail). My system would benefit everyone: advertisers, who usually look to target a particular audience, would have better information; newspapers, which are begging for ad dollars, would be able to effectively market to specific advertisers; and subscribers would pay less money for the same product.

Also, newspapers wouldn't have to hire those annoying marketers who call at 9:01AM trying to forcefeed their product to someone who's already received six renewal offers by mail and two by email. Entire telemarketing teams would disappear, as well as the waste that occurs from multiple renewal offers. Newspapers would only have to send one renewal notice with the following message: either subscribe and pay within three weeks, or lose the discounted rate.

Isn't it shocking no one has tried this yet? What am I missing?

Bill Maher Calls Out Pres Obama

Bill Maher on Obama (June 12, 2009, Real Time):

http://www.hbo.com/billmaher/new_rules/20090612.html

And, this is why I don't want my president to be a TV star. Because TV stars are too worried about being popular, and too concerned with getting renewed...speaking of the Republicans, if you can't shove some real reform down their throats now, then when? Folks, Barack Obama needs to start putting it on the line in fights against the banks, the energy companies and the health care industry.

I'm glad Obama is president, but the "audacity of hope" part is over. Right now, I'm hoping for a little more audacity.

Interesting perspective. Obama has already done quite a bit, but it doesn't seem enough for many people. For those people upset with the current pace of reform, remember: slow and steady can win the race.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

The Soloist

I just finished Steve Lopez's nonfiction book, The Soloist. It was a good read, even though the ending was much too abrupt. If you're looking for quick, easy summertime reading, this is a good choice. (San Jose residents take note--Mr. Lopez attended San Jose State and worked for the SJ Mercury.)

The Soloist is about a gifted but mentally unstable musician, Nathaniel Ayers, and a journalist who attempts to get Mr. Ayers to reach his full potential. The interactions between Ayers and Lopez are well-described, offering readers a glimpse into how the homeless and mentally ill survive. Mr. Lopez successfully highlights the plight of the homeless, especially L.A.'s lawless "Skid Row," without being overly judgmental or sentimental. He also casts aspersions on Tom Cruise and others who denigrate drug treatment for the mentally ill. (One gets the feeling that anyone who spends enough time on Skid Row will probably believe that drugs are an important part of treating the mentally ill.)

The Soloist
peels back the curtain of comfortable civilization, revealing a broken system. The key question is, "How do we help people who are prone to violent outbursts and who refuse help because of deep-seated fear and mistrust?" Mr. Lopez answers this question through his book: patience, trust, and friendship.

Mr. Lopez also touches on racial issues, but doesn't develop that storyline much. Even so, I felt Mr. Lopez identified with Mr. Ayers and stuck with him for so long was because they shared a racial similarity: neither had the "right" color for the business they were in. Here is one interesting passage, from/about the author himself (p. 110, Berkley paperback):

The issue of race is inescapable for me. I often joke that the main difference between the East Coast and the West is that when I wrote columns for the Philadelphia Inquirer, the mail said Go Back to Puerto Rico, and in Los Angeles it says Go Back to Mexico. It's a strange phenomenon for someone with grandparents from Italy and Spain, and it makes me more attuned to the hatred aimed at people of color even in a place like Los Angeles, which is defined by its multiculturalism.

My take on the source of Mr. Ayers' mental illness is that it resulted from a combination of stressors--poor racial relations, the hyper-competitiveness of Julliard, and the burden of being a minority in a place where few minorities existed. Mr. Lopez seems to agree with my opinion--he quotes Hal Slapin, who says that "Julliard in the 1970s 'was not a place where students...were encouraged to bond...racial tensions were high.'" (p. 247-248). Mr. Lopez also mentions that Mr. Ayers was drawn to another musician, Eugene Moye, who was half-black (p. 246).

Mr. Ayers' story has a happy ending, but that's only because Mr. Lopez became involved and used the power of the press to change Mr. Ayers' life, and, by extension, his own. Mr. Lopez probably wrote his book to shed some light on the plight of the homeless. At one point, he practically pleads for government intervention, asking, "What's more human, after all? To respect someone's civil liberties to the point of allowing them to wither away on the street, or to intercede in the interest of their own welfare?" (page 101) Later, he implies that L.A.'s annual budget for housing and services is not enough, saying that New York City's is "three times that of Los Angeles" (p. 132). Yet, he also mentions that, at least around 2006, California's state commission had "more than $1 billion a year...[to spend] on expanded mental services" (page 133).

The cynic in me doesn't think we're going to see any systemic change--no matter how much money is spent on the problems of the homeless, it must feel like a Sisyphean task to anyone involved. The real problem is that the public doesn't see much return on their taxpayer dollars when it comes to any kind of social services. As a result of the lack of visibility, social and welfare services will be the first to get cut in our modern era of massive state deficits. Indeed, unless homeless men kill someone or get killed, they tend to be invisible. Mr. Lopez has clearly added something valuable in his descriptions of "Skid Row," which exists, apparently unabated, to keep the problems of the homeless segregated from the public. The question is whether the public will listen after reading/seeing The Soloist, and what their response will be.

Personally, I was moved, but not so much that I would feel the need to increase taxes to fund more housing/welfare programs. Mr. Ayers is a sympathetic character, but it is difficult to justify spending taxpayer dollars when there is no corresponding tangible benefit to society. I am sure I will be accused of being heartless, but let's think through this issue. If Mr. Ayers had never met Mr. Lopez, what would have changed? Mr. Ayers would have probably continued to play his music, but to a small, local audience. Post-Mr. Lopez, the only difference to society is that Mr. Ayers now has a wider audience for his story and his music.

At first, I saw some parallels between Ayers and James "Radio" Robert Kennedy, popularized in the Cuba Gooding Jr. movie, Radio. In both of these instances, two members of the middle-class try to help socially-challenged African-Americans. After some reflection, however, I realized that the stories were not substantively similar at all. In Radio's case, the football coach bucked an entire town's prejudices, which almost cost him his job. Here, in contrast, Mr. Lopez has taken up an easier cause--the plight of the homeless, which actually helped him maintain his job and his salary. That's one reason I wasn't quite sucked into the story--there is some personal benefit to Mr. Lopez here, no matter how hard he tries to show his reader the sacrifices he and his family have made. (At one point, the author talks about moving to a cheaper house and city.) Overall, I enjoyed reading The Soloist. I don't know if I will see the film, but it is receiving good reviews.

Of course, I realize Mr. Lopez has done a wonderful thing. Without his intervention, Mr. Ayers might not be alive today. In 2007, San Jose saw its most famous homeless man, Cornelius Van Der Vies, die after a street altercation. Two weeks before his death, I looked into Cornelius's eyes and saw an abject fear behind his clean, dignified appearance. It was then that I realized that many homeless persons survive through an alertness provided by constant fear.

There is no question that current resources are inadequate to solve homelessness. While Mr. Lopez has provided us with a success story, it's hard to contemplate enough willing people who want to become deeply involved in strangers' lives. That probably means that despite Mr. Lopez's efforts, the problems of the homeless will continue, out of sight, and out of mind.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Pepsi Natural

I just tried Pepsi Natural (All Natural Cola). It tastes like apple-flavored Coke. I didn't like it, but you might. I will stick with Mexican-bottled Coke (made with sugar, not corn syrup) and San Pellegrino.

Quote of the Day

Quote of the day is from Abraham Lincoln:

As I would not be a slave, so I would not be a master. (1858)

Law: Edwin Stegman

As an attorney, I enjoy Edwin Stegman's articles. He has a diverse legal background, so his ideas tend to be both realistic and individual-oriented. Here is an excerpt from a June 2009 article on how to reform the legal system:

Motions for summary judgment (MFSJ) were originally a summary procedure to deal with the practice of debtors filing unmeritorious answers to delay collection of their debts. CCP §437c, enacted in 1931, required 10 days’ notice for a motion for summary judgment. The motion is no longer “summary.”

Instead of 10, the motion now requires 80 days notice, if by mail. The court may grant a continuance to conduct discovery; then the judge has 90 days to rule, the loser has 15 days to file a motion for new trial and the court has 60 days to rule. Therefore, it can take more than a year for a creditor to obtain a judgment to collect a debt. As a result, collections specialists say the MFSJ has become so slow, cumbersome and expensive ($200 filing fee) that they rarely use it.

So we’re back to pre-1931 and debtors can again file unmeritorious answers to delay collection of their debts.

Oh, the irony.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Kiplinger's Interview with Robert Shiller

Interview with Robert Shiller (June 2009):

http://www.kiplinger.com/magazine/archives/2009/06/interview-with-robert-shiller.html

People think that because we have only so much land, and it is getting scarcer, housing prices must rise. But offsetting that is the decline in construction costs, so it balances out...

The figures show that the market is relatively low-priced now. Based on history, we should get something like 10% real [after-inflation] annual returns from stocks for years to come...

The French philosopher Montesquieu said that history is littered with wars and that it would be great if we could create some peaceful methods of diverting humans from their aggressive tendencies. Business is one peaceful alternative.

Shiller always seems to make a lot of sense. I'm not sure I agree that stocks are a sure thing right now. The article doesn't indicate where the S&P was at the time of the interview.

Monday, June 15, 2009

What if Iran Had a Revolution and Not Enough People Cared?

Andrew Sullivan is doing a great job blogging about the mini-revolution in Iran. Here is one email, from Iran:

WE NEED HELP. WE NEED SUPPORT. Time is not on our side, waiting and making sure means more casualties, more disappointment, more brutality.

The most essential need of young Iranians is to be recognized by US government. They need them not to accept the results and do not talk to A.N government as an official, approved one. They need help by sending true information. All the medias are under arrest or close control. Help them have the information.

They only try to show the fraud to the world. Help them please. You can not imagine the level of brutality we saw these two awful days.

Steve Jobs' Stanford Commencement Speech

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Netflix Finally Addresses Online Captioning Issues

In mid-May 2009, I reported that CEO Reed Hastings had confirmed that Netflix would not take an active approach to captioning its online content. The online community reacted immediately to CEO Hasting's comments. As of today, the Facebook group, "Netflix Watch-Instantly Needs Closed Captions!" had 983 members--most of whom joined after my review of Netflix's annual meeting was published. According to some reports, Netflix recently received thousands of inquiries regarding captioning online content.

Netflix finally issued a statement regarding captions yesterday. Click here to see it. The gist of the statement was that captioning would be supported on a specific Microsoft media player in about one year:

Captioning is in our development plans but is about a year away...I would expect to deliver subtitles or captions to Silverlight clients sometime in 2010.

One reader, Chris, wasn't buying Netflix's explanation:

I am not personally affected by Netflix's lack of subtitles but from reading multiple deaf consumer's complaints about Netflix's lack of support of Closed Captions I can sympathize with their point of view. from a technological standpoint I would say that Netflix has totally failed. I've been able to view DivX movies with subtitles for at least 7+ years. And it in no way required bringing the text into the the video. In fact all it required was a simple time-stamped .txt file that took up maybe 10-20 KB (that is 0.001% the size of a normal Netflix movie). There should be ZERO reason why Netflui/Silverlight can't support the use of .SRT. files and be able to EASILY support CC in multiple languages. Quite frankly I think Netflix has really disappointed a non-significant size of its customer base and is hiding behind non-existent "technological difficulties" as an excuse.

Personally, I view Netflix's response with cautious optimism. After receiving thousands of inquiries about online captioning, Netflix now understands that its cavalier approach to the issue was unacceptable. Also, by publicly declaring that online captioning will be available in some format in "about a year," Netflix has committed itself to a particular date. If it fails to provide online captioning by July 2010, its reputation and perhaps share price will suffer.

To be continued...

Update on June 15, 2009: I forgot to add that celebrity Marlee Matlin gave her support to online captioning via Twitter:

[from her friend] I called Netflix and talked 2 one of corporate offices Over 8000 letters & phone calls about #caption this month! YES!!

Update on July 10, 2009: I recently tried to enjoy Gran Torino, but it didn't have TV captions or DVD subtitles. I called customer service, and she sent me another DVD after assuring me the DVD had captions. (NFLX lists Gran Torino as a closed captioned film.) The second DVD also didn't have captions.

I noticed the DVD cover was gray. It turns out that gray-colored DVDs are made specifically for Netflix and may be different from other publicly-sold DVDs. In this case, it appears the studio, Warner Brothers, didn't provide Netflix with a captioned DVD. No one had apparently figured this out. Netflix and its contract lawyers should ensure that all of its specially-issued DVDs have captions. Why would any studio want to prevent hearing impaired people from enjoying their product?

Update on April 18, 2010: Netflix has finally captioned some online videos, but only 100 so far. More here. Looking at hulu.com's options, which have included captioning and now transcripts, I am still disappointed with NFLX.

Daily Show on Socialism

I don't watch much TV, but I love the Daily Show clips online. Here is one on socialism:

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=225126&title=the-stockholm-syndrome-pt.-2

I couldn't hear much of it, and it doesn't have captions, but I still cracked up. As media shifts from the television and radio to the internet, the pace of captioning isn't keeping up at all. The lack of captioning bars most online media from hearing-impaired persons and many senior citizens as well.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Iran's Elections

Today, Iranian voters are having a very American moment--they have an opportunity to vote for change. Iranians may choose between a reformer (Hossein Mousavi) and a sitting president (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) who got elected by promising reform. (It seems like every election, the candidate promising the most reform wins.) The time is ripe for another change.

First, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has grossly mismanaged Iran's economy. When oil prices were high, he had an opportunity to increase currency reserves and did not do so; in fact, Iran has suffered double-digit inflation and continues to import oil because of high domestic use (a fact conveniently left out by all who accuse Iran of developing nuclear power solely to develop a weapon).

Second, President Ahmadinejad has already had his chance to fix the economy and to bring Iranians more prosperity. But the way the country has increased selective prosperity is by printing money and engaging in banking maneuvers that would boggle even Zimbabwe's central bankers. Yes, teachers make more money now. Yes, the abject poor are suffering less now. But anyone can take over a state and print money and give it away to the poor (note to Paul "More Stimulus" Krugman: hope you're reading this). The test of one's competency is whether s/he can combat the tide of inflation and lift all boats.

Third, this election is a very easy choice for Iranian voters--do they want to reaffirm the man who is a living affront to so many groups, or do they want to choose a candidate with less baggage? Even if Hossein Mousavi doesn't turn out to be perfect, right now, there's no question that he's better for the country's image than Ahmadinejad. Most analysts, including Western analysts, believe that Mousavi is the better choice. If it turns out that the Iranian voters were wrong about Mousavi--just as they were wrong about Ahmadinejad--then at least they were in good company.

Interview with Mousavi: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1904343,00.html

General stories on the election: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090612/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_election

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ml_iran_election

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/13/landslide-or-fraud-the-debate-online-over-irans-election-results/

Pension Q&A

From the WSJ, what happens to your pension if your company declares bankruptcy?

http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/107142/Pension-Benefits-Are-Protected-in-a-Bankruptcy

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Peet's Annual Shareholder Meeting (2009)



Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc. (PEET) held its annual shareholder meeting at an Emeryville hotel on May 20, 2009. The small hotel conference room was filled to capacity. Peet’s offered shareholders Peet's drip coffee, juices, fruit, pastries, and yogurt. Shareholders also received a reuseable Peet’s bag containing coffee beans and a box of tea.

Peet’s shareholder meetings are fun to attend for several reasons. First, although Peet’s is a publicly-traded company, it doesn’t act like most major corporations. Its meetings are less formal, and Peet’s executives seem more receptive to questions and comments than other companies. Second, Peet’s talks about what it is doing to find and develop coffee beans, which usually results in interesting stories involving international travel. Third, it is hard to walk out of a meeting unhappy when Peet’s provides good food, great coffee, and several complimentary items.

CEO and President Patrick J. O’Dea started the meeting with a brief slideshow presentation. He explained that recent economic events have caused American consumers to experience a 30% evaporation of wealth. He mentioned several retailers that had filed for bankruptcy (Circuit City, Levitz, Sharper Image, Linens ’n Things, and Mervyn’s) and indicated these retailers may have expanded too quickly. He talked about an “embarrassment of riches” and how consumers were avoiding conspicuous consumption. Despite these troubling events, however, Peet’s managed to grow sales by 14%.

Peet’s continues to use ERP (enterprise resource planning) to attack inefficiencies and cut costs. CEO O’Dea mentioned that executives had agreed to a management salary freeze for 2009, while increasing salaries for hourly workers. Peet’s commitment to its rank-and-file employees may explain why almost every Peet’s employee I’ve met has provided great customer service. (My local store, run by Store Manager Ian Batra, is particularly good at going the extra mile to make customers happy.)

Peet’s continues to expand by using targeted advertising, such as direct mail and email. Peet’s most recent advertising efforts involve a partnership with San Francisco’s de Young Museum. Peet's also has a promotion that provides a free medium iced drink after you buy five iced drinks. (Make sure you get the card--the promotion ends on August 31, 2009.)

CEO O'Dea explained that Peet’s has multiple channels to sell its products, including retail stores; home delivery; food services; office; and grocery stores. Peet’s coffee is currently sold in over 3,500 grocery stores. While Starbucks relied heavily on expanding its own stores to grow sales, Peet’s grew at a more measured pace and has focused more on grocery store alliances to sell its coffee beans. Peet’s strategy has paid off. Opening fewer stores and selling coffee beans through already-established grocery stores has allowed Peet’s to shift overhead onto third parties and lower its operating costs.

CEO O’Dea then turned the meeting over to coffee buyer Doug Welsh. I am a big fan of Mr. Welsh. Mr. Welsh naturally exudes sincerity and diligence, which is particularly helpful when dealing with international operations and finding reliable business partners. Mr. Welsh talked about how Peet’s finds its coffee beans and what it is doing to maintain quality and sustainability. He showed some pictures (unfortunately, only a few) of himself and buyer Shirin Moayyad in Africa tasting coffee. He explained how he judges coffee beans, using a five point scale:

5 is Peet’s Quality.
4 is Other high grade speciality.
3 is Good quality.
2 is Problematic but saleable.
1 is Defective.

He also explained how Peet’s helps communities create better living conditions. For example, in his never-ending quest for the best coffee beans, Mr. Welsh visited some places where “backyard growers” were smashing coffee beans on rocks, a highly inefficient process. (Mr. Welsh said these people were literally “between a rock and a hard place.”) After Peet’s became involved, it showed the residents how to buy and use various micro-mills to improve coffee production and quality. After residents establish a cooperative and pool money to purchase a micro-mill, production and profits increase. With increased profits, small villages are then able to provide basic health care to their residents and improve their quality of life. (Say what you want about globalization, but I love it for precisely this reason–when it’s done right, everyone benefits.)

Mr. Welsh made some other comments before turning the meeting back to CEO O’Dea. Mr. Welsh indicated he was looking forward to the “New Africa” blend. He said that for logistical reasons, Latin America exports more coffee beans than Eastern Africa. He said that Peet’s tends to pay more than the Fair Trade Certified guaranteed minimum living wage. (Lest you think Peet’s executives are purely altruistic, Mr. Welsh reminded everyone that the ultimate goal was to get the best coffee beans: “Any dime we spend to make the world a better place is your dime. We’re very conscious of that.”)

Mr. O’Dea then opened the meeting to questions. Before I go into the Q&A, I want to make one comment. Peet’s didn’t have a portable microphone. As a result, many questions were difficult to hear. Peet’s might want to bring a portable microphone to its annual meetings to make questions easier to understand. While the CEO repeated most of the questions, it would be better to hear questions directly from the person asking them.

The first question was about free Wi-Fi. CEO O’Dea said that Peet’s offered free Wi-Fi in most of its stores to attract customers.

A shareholder asked about options, referring specifically to page 11 of the proxy statement. The shareholder complained that Peet’s had shortened the vesting time period for certain options from seven years to four years. This change appeared to diminish the link between long term share performance and executive compensation, he said. CEO O’Dea disagreed and later mentioned that 75% of his individual net worth was linked to Peet’s stock.

A shareholder asked whether Peet’s would expand operations in airports and other outlet-type facilities (e.g., BART stations). CEO O’Dea said that Peet’s is always searching for good locations. Later, in response to a related question, CEO O’Dea said that Peet’s had no plans to enter the franchising business but had 70 licensed stores. (A “licensed” store is a store that Peet’s does not own but allows the operator to use the Peet’s brand name and products. Persons serving coffee in those non-Peet’s-owned outlets participate in a Peet’s training program.)

A shareholder asked about what Peet’s was doing to improve brand recognition and sales growth on the East Coast. CEO O’Dea talked about targeted advertising.

Someone asked how many stores Peet’s planned on opening in 2009. (I apologize, but my notes are not definitive on the response, so I cannot provide an answer. In case you are interested, my notes indicate, “10 stores (reduced #) – open in ‘09. 58 –> 200 stores.”)

Someone asked about a Consumer Reports taste test that rated "Eight O’Clock" coffee as the best-tasting coffee. Mr. Welsh said that the survey was flawed for several reasons, which drew some laughter. Mr. Welsh opined that the persons who participated in the taste test probably grew up tasting less strong coffee.

Someone asked whether Peet’s would enter the chocolate business. CEO O’Dea said no, but a partnership might be possible.

Someone asked about diversity, pointing out that the Board wasn’t diverse. CEO O’Dea said that diversity was a continuing process and an important factor. He said that Peet’s had done well in a UC Davis leadership survey when compared to other corporations. He also said that half of the executive team reporting to him were female.

Someone asked what Peet’s did to choose the best tea. A Peet’s employee said that he had inherited many good relationships with tea suppliers. CEO O’Dea said that Peet’s was now selling cold tea in select grocery stores. (I’ve tried these teas–my favorite is the Snow Leopard Tea with Honey.)

A shareholder mentioned that Peet’s was very helpful when it came to composting and that Peet's gave away expired beans for composting.

Someone asked how Peet’s finds high quality coffee. Mr. Welsh said that too-rapid growth leads to reduced standards (a little dig at a certain Seattle-based competitor), and Peet’s slower growth allowed it to focus more on finding high-quality coffee beans.

A shareholder asked if any Peet’s stores had not done as well as expected. CEO O’Dea mentioned that Peet’s had closed the Westminster store due to its poor location/visibility.

I asked Peet’s to publish more information, perhaps on Facebook, about Doug Welsh’s and Shirin Moayyad’s travels. I said I really enjoyed seeing the pictures from the coffee buyers’ international trips, and I regretted that Peet’s only showed a few of them at its meeting. I said Peet’s ought to consider publishing a “coffee table” book with pictures from different countries and, with permission, the people its buyers meet and work with.

I also asked a question about food sales in Peet’s retail stores. It turns out that Peet’s makes 60% of its retail store profits from drinks and 40% from food sales. If I heard the CEO right, the margins Peet’s gets on its food items must be incredible. (Try the vegan chocolate chip cookie–it’s delicious.)

A few tips for Peet’s customers:

1. If you are staying inside the store, order a large drink in a “for here” cup. The “for here” glass cup seems larger than the “to-go” cup. You get more coffee and you also help the environment.

2. It costs Peet’s about 7 cents for a hot coffee “to-go” cup, but about 15 cents for a cold coffee “to-go” cup. As a shareholder, you should buy a Peet’s tumbler, because you get a discount each time you use it, and Peet’s also saves money. Of course, you also help the environment by reducing waste.

3. When ordering a frozen drink (e.g., a frappe), order it “extra bold.” If you don’t order it “extra bold,” your drink won’t have espresso–just regular coffee. [Update: it's actually double-strength coffee, but as I said, no espresso.]

I look forward to attending next year’s meeting and hearing more about Mr. Welsh’s travels. In the meantime, I will be buying lots of Peet's coffee. Although the economy isn't doing very well, and I will earn much less money this year, I cannot bear to give up my one luxury--a Peet's cappuccino.

Note: the pictures above are of myself, Doug Welsh, and Shirin Moayyad, and the food trays after the meeting was over.

Note: a review of Peet's 2008 meeting is here.

Disclosure: I own an insignificant number of Peet’s (PEET) shares.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Star Wars

I've never seen a Star Wars film, but here's an interesting post:

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/06/the-islamic-roots-of-star-wars.html

One day, I'll get around to watching the films.

Hayward Police Settles Harassment Case for $5 million

Hayward Police Department settles harassment case for 5 million dollars:

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_12561714

The lawsuit was settled through the city's insurance companies, which are responsible for paying it. City officials said the settlement will have no effect on the city's general fund or income from Measure A, a utility users tax approved in May.

City Attorney Michael Lawson estimated that the city spent about $500,000 on the case since it was brought forward in November 2007.

Casper said the amount of the settlement indicated the insurance companies "recognized the problems the city has historically had with women being treated fairly at the police department. Close to $5 million is not an amount paid unless someone has recognized years of wrongdoing."

Surprisingly, the amount was paid through an insurance company. Many cities are self-insured, but perhaps Hayward was small enough to get an outside insurance policy. Even though the city paid the settlement monies through an insurance company, taxpayers will still suffer (beyond the half a million dollars spent on legal fees). After all, the insurance company will raise the city's insurance rates, and the higher premiums will be paid by taxpayers.

Intersil Litigation Update

I recently thought about buying a few shares of Intersil (ISIL), which is embroiled in litigation against a Texas company called Texas Advanced Optoelectronic Solutions, Inc. ("TAOS"). I reviewed the online docket, and there's not much going on. The parties have entered into a standard protective order to protect confidential information and have chosen to mediate. Former Magistrate Judge Robert Faulkner is the mediator:

http://www.jamsadr.com/neutrals/Bio.asp?NeutralID=1632

The most recent docket activity was the assignment to mediation. Short interest increased in ISIL shares recently. ISIL should be an interesting stock to follow, especially because it supplies some iPhone parts, and the litigation relates to ISIL's iPhone business.

Disclosure: I own one ISIL share.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

California's Budget Crisis Continues

An interesting perspective from Assembly-member Jim Beall, Jr. in Campbell Times (June 2009, page 19):

The state's biggest cost driver is prisons. The prison budget has doubled in the past decade to $10 billion. The state has 173,000 inmates, which is roughly equivalent to locking up everyone in the city of Ontario [California]. We spend roughly $45,000 on each prisoner, which is just about what it costs to send a student to Yale. Yet, California has a 70 percent recidivism rate...what we are doing now isn't working...

The state's 2009-2010 revenue is chiefly derived from personal income taxes accounting for almost half--49 percent; sales and use taxes make up 34.6 percent; corporation taxes represent 10.7 percent; the rest come from a myriad number of sources.

Two thoughts:

1. The war on drugs is bankrupting the state. The state spends huge sums jailing thousands of drug addicts.

2. The pro-law-enforcement mentality post-9-11 may have caused D.A.s to prosecute more non-violent offenders, knowing juries would be more fearful of anyone suspected of a crime.

To be or not to be a libertarian--more Californians should be asking themselves this question.

More on California's problems here.

Morgan Spurlock

Morgan Spurlock just keeps outdoing himself:

http://www.hulu.com/watch/26682/30-days-life-on-an-indian-reservation#x-0,vepisode,1

His episode about living on an Indian reservation was deeply moving. If the link above doesn't work, go to hulu.com and search for the show "30 Days." (Note to Netflix: the online video has captions.)

Monday, June 8, 2009

Kobe Bryant

From ESPN's Bill Simmons, or what I call, "Why Kobe Will Never, Ever Be Like Mike":

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/090608

Important note: Kobe's reputation as a "killer" at the end of games remains overblown. The site www.82games.com just posted a study of game-winning shots from the last five-plus seasons (regular seasons and playoffs since the 2003-04 season) that revealed Kobe was shooting 14-for-56 (25 percent) with one assist and five turnovers, and made 12 of 15 free throws. So let's say that was 70 possessions total, including Sunday night. ... He only had one assist in nearly six years??? That's why Orlando quadruple-teamed him in that spot. Kobe is a phenomenal streak shooter, and he has a real talent for catching fire with a lead and closing games out ... but you can stop him in one-shot situations simply because he's his own worst enemy. He wants to be a hero, he's shooting it, and that's that.

0:00.6: Funniest moment of the game: Kobe storms back to the bench, whacks the chair in disgust and sits down as Phil Jackson (already sitting) looks at him with a bemused, "Should I point out to him that MJ absolutely would have passed there?" smile on his face. Classic.

Mr. Simmons is absolutely right. Is it just me who thinks Kobe's newfound super-intensity is contrived? He mailed it in against Houston in the last series, and in Game 2, he didn't do much until the second half. Then, he gets the benefit of a Jack Nicholson tantrum, which causes the referees to call multiple touch/non-existent fouls against Orlando thereafter. (A significant development when the game later goes into OT.)

Kobe's decision to go four-on-one while Odom was wide open and practically begging for the ball establishes that Kobe is not a clutch player. I'm sorry, but even Mike passed to Steve Kerr (1997 NBA Finals) and enabled John Paxson to take the last shot (1993 NBA Finals).

Even though the following interview took place in 2004, Ray Allen's comments about Kobe are still spot-on:

http://www.seattlepi.com/basketball/195189_sonx14.html

He's going to be very selfish...I think the point production is not going to be so much what people are going to look at because (Tracy) McGrady did it in Orlando, Allen (Iverson) did it in Philly. Can you win a championship? I think that's the question. Carrying guys on your back and making everybody better." ... But is his attitude going to allow him to take a back seat and let Lamar Odom shine and let Caron Butler have his nights and bring those big guys along with him?"

Some final comments: Kobe now has Pau Gasol, who's an All-Star center--a white version of Shaq, if you will. Gasol was an All-Star and FIBA champ before he played with Kobe. Kobe couldn't win with just Bynum. He couldn't win with Kwame Brown. He couldn't win with Radmanovic. He couldn't win with Divac. Bottom line, if Kobe wins the championship, good for him--but don't sully Jordan's reputation and your own basketball IQ by ever comparing Jordan--who won championships with non-All-Stars Luc Longley and Bill Wennington--with Kobe.

Notes for Stan Van Gundy: play Howard and Battie/Gortat together as much as you can. Put Pietrus on Kobe till Pietrus fouls out. Play Alston and tell him before the game that he's the starting PG. Let Alston control his own minutes and sub Nelson at Alston's own reasonable discretion.

Update on June 9, 2009: Tonight was Game 3 of the Orlando-L.A. NBA Finals. From this day forward, whenever anyone compares Kobe to Jordan, all you need to end the discussion are the following five words: "Game 3, 2009 NBA Finals." Kobe not only missed a crucial free throw in the final two minutes, but he turned the ball over and misfired on a three-pointer. Kobe's last play of the game? He fouled an Orlando player with 0.2 seconds left on the clock with Orlando up by 2 points. (The player made both free throws.)

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Actel's Annual Shareholder Meeting (2009)

Actel Corporation (ACTL) held its annual shareholder meeting on June 5, 2009 at a Santa Clara hotel. Although around eighteen people attended the meeting, I was the only non-employee there. The hotel served cinnamon rolls, fruit, pastries, water, and coffee.

CEO and President John East gave a slideshow presentation. It appeared that the presentation had been shown to everyone else in the room the day before. Mr. East is a tall man, more Texas than California in his demeanor--friendly, direct, and unreserved. (In case you're interested, here is a 2008 interview with him.)

The meeting began with Attorney David Foster introducing various Actel employees. As part of the formal portion of the meeting, several directors were nominated, and shareholders increased the number of shares reserved for issuance by two million shares. CEO East then began his presentation.

Before I summarize Mr. East's presentation, I will provide some technical background. Actel makes FPGAs. FPGA stands for "Field Programmable Gate Array." A digital gate is a combination of many transistors to make a function such as an inverter or flip flop. Hundreds, thousands or even more digital (or recently analog) cells make an FPGA. FPGAs are useful because companies can configure their desired circuits to make a system application by pick-and-choose or by cut-and-paste.

RAM stands for Random Access Memory (vs. ROM which is Read Only Memory). There is Static RAM, Dynamic RAM, etc. which are digital (logic) circuits. These are used in the computers and other electronic systems. (Mr. East mentioned several times that Actel was focused on the "static" end of the market, and I assume he was referring to Static RAM.)

Two ways of measuring an FPGA are by reviewing its clock speed and data rate. Actel's FPGA "clock" speeds of 200MHz (its low power design) and 350MHz are very good. However, in many data communication applications, "data" speed (or data rate) of several gigahertz (1000 megahertz) are common now. To get a more complete picture of Actel's FPGAs, I should have also asked questions about data speed, which I did not do; however, in pure digital systems, clock and data speeds tend to be very close.

In contrast, in mixed (digital + analog) systems, such as data communication applications, the data rate is usually many times the clock rate (speed). Actel indicated clock speeds of 40 to 60 MHz in its mixed-signal product.

Getting back to the presentation, Mr. East talked for about forty minutes while explaining the various slides. I will do my best to replicate the main points of the presentation.

No debt: Actel has no debt and 140 million dollars in cash and investments.

Broad customer base: Actel has 3500+ customers. 60% of Actel's revenues come from around 1000 customers. [Note: 10K, page 26: Lockheed is a major customer. "Lockheed Martin accounted for 4% of our net revenues during 2004 compared with 11% during 2003."]

Niche markets: Actel is not "going after what the big guys [Altera (ALTR) and Xilinx (XLNX)] are going after."

Static v. Dynamic: Actel is better when it comes to static power.

Survey says: "Which vendor best addresses power consumption" problems in FPGAs?

Xilinx: 27%; Lattice Semi: 6%; Altera, 22%; Actel, 22%.

Flash: Flash is growing, but at a slower rate than anti-fuse.

Slow but steady?: Actel is "gaining share, but not at a rapid pace."

Long-term customers: Actel has many long-term customers in the military, industrial, and medical markets. At the same time, some of these customers have external complications, such as necessary FDA approval, that prevent immediate sales. As a result, although Actel is actively trying to gain more long-term customers, the time it takes to gain such customers may cancel out any immediate revenue effect.

Vision: CEO East talked about how the "whole world is moving" in the direction of "portable" products, i.e., handheld and battery-powered devices. (The cellphone is an obvious example of this movement.) Mr. East mentioned that he had just seen a portable medical device the size of his thumb. (Quite a change from the days of large, immovable medical equipment.) He mentioned that some restaurants no longer using pen and paper but are taking orders on portable devices. He provided many examples of Actel's ability to grow in the future as more devices become smaller and handheld.

Acquisitions: Mr. East talked about Actel's acquisition of Pigeon Point Systems and the possibility that the TCA (Telecommunications Computing Architecture) standard would become industry standard.

I asked several questions. I mentioned that around 40% of Actel's revenues came from the military and aerospace industries. (See 10K, page 25, "[S]ales of our products to customers in the military and aerospace industries...accounted for 38% of our net revenues in 2008.") I asked how the cancellation of various projects would impact Actel. I mentioned specific projects, like the F-22, which had been scaled back or canceled.

This is where it got a little confusing. All CEOs, including the honest ones, are part-salemen. No CEO wants to admit that problems might arise as a result of government spending cuts. As a taxpayer, I am quite happy President Obama is scaling back some defense programs. (See here for more on this issue.) Actel shareholders, however, probably understand that certain military/aerospace cuts may impact Actel's ability to grow. Mr. East did not mention any particular defense program cut that would impact Actel's revenues. Mr. East seemed to say that Actel's product line was diverse enough so that the "cumulative" effect of defense spending cuts would not be significant. Even so, if I was a mutual fund that owned millions of shares, I'd ask Actel to break down exactly how much money it was expecting from each of its defense projects. That breakdown would give a fund manager a better idea of what to expect from Actel moving forward.

Mr. East did mention that "95%" of American-launched satellites used some Actel product. That's an incredible achievement. Mr. East mentioned that there were many civilian satellites, such as weather satellites, and scientific satellites, such as Pluto explorations. His point was that even if the military cuts back on its defense spending, civilian projects would probably continue to give Actel revenue.

I asked about Actel's efforts to diversify its upper ranks. There were only two females in the entire room, and one of them appeared to be a non-executive employee. If I saw a company with 18 women and 1 male in upper management, I'd be concerned, so I asked Mr. East what he was doing to improve diversity. Mr. East seemed a little uncomfortable with this question and first joked that if I was discriminating against older white men, he was going to call his lawyer to come after me. He then pointed out that Actel had some Egyptian and Lebanese employees in the room, and the overall racial composition of Actel's employees was very, very diverse.

When I pressed him further on why there weren't more women in the room, Mr. East became more serious and indicated that there was a "dearth of American-born female engineers." In probably one of the best comments made by a CEO I've heard, he said he didn't have a company car, he stayed in cheap hotels, and he didn't have an executive jet, but he "liked his engineers." His point was that he hired good engineers, no matter what the ethnicity or gender. As he became increasingly more uncomfortable, the sole female manager piped in. She made some excellent comments about how the company wanted to add diversity naturally, not "artificially." She said that in the nine years she had been with the company, Actel had "never" had a hearing before the OFCCP (the OFFCP ensures that federal contractors do not discriminate). Her response was excellent, and having a female employee save the CEO from his discomfort showed that Mr. East was respected within Actel's upper ranks.

Although I enjoyed the CEO's presentation, I will not be buying more Actel shares. When it comes to technology, you want to go with the leaders, and Xilinx and Altera appear to be the leaders in Actel's field. That doesn't mean Actel won't survive or even thrive, but it appears to have made a conscious decision to move away from competing with Xilinx and Altera. That means Actel will probably focus more on lower-growth areas, where the larger players have exited. To give you an idea of the size difference between Actel, Xilinx and Altera, Actel's market cap is around 300 million dollars; Altera's is around 5 billion dollars; and Xilinx's is around 6 billion dollars. Maybe Actel will eventually decide to play the part of David and slay the Goliaths. Anything's possible in our this topsy-turvy world of ours. Right now, however, Actel does not appear to be able to grow at a high enough rate to justify a massive upside in its stock price.

Miscellany: Actel invested in Lehman Brothers' bonds and only recently wrote off the investment. See 10K, page 49: "The total impairment charge of $0.9 million is included in interest income and other, net on our consolidated statement of operations for the year ended January 4, 2009."

Disclosure: I own an insignificant number of Actel and Xilinx shares.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Awesome video

RIP: Alexis Joy Briski

I recently attended Alexis Joy Briski's service at Calvary Church. You may read Alexis's obituary here:

http://www.losgatosobserver.com/2009/05/27/obituary_alexis_joy_briski

The service was beautiful. The large church was filled to capacity. The materials included a bookmark with a picture of Alexis pitching for her softball team and the "The Lord is my shepherd" prayer inscribed at the bottom; a blank page for the kids to draw on; a written transcript of some of the speeches to be given by Alexis's friends; and an outline of how the service would proceed.

Whenever we think we are having a bad day or life is not going the way we want, we should also remember the children who died before they could reach their full potential. Some people weren't given a chance to have all the options many of us have today. Sometimes, our options may be limited, but at least we have options. It is important to remember that.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Sad and Happy Stories

A sad story:

http://www.mercurynews.com/localnewsheadlines/ci_12530827

Andrew King was arrested for molesting girls on Santa Clara's nationally-renowned San Jose Aquatics swim club. I realize all persons are entitled to a presumption of innocence, but it's hard to believe so many women would come forward now to make false allegations. As a youth basketball coach, I despise people like Andrew King. The whole point of coaching kids is to give them a set of skills that will help them become mature adults. When a youth coach violates the trust his community has placed in him, he fundamentally alters a child's maturation process.

And a happy one:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news;_ylt=A2KIPHfjfClKJlQBLw85nYcB?slug=jn-laue060509

Kevin Laue, a scholarship athlete...with one full arm.

President Obama in Cairo, Egypt

From LA Times: transcript of President Obama's speech in Cairo, Egypt:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/06/barack-obama-muslim-speech-text-egypt.html

Scroll down the page for the transcript.

The Economists' Roundtable

Just a wonderful, wonderful exchange between prominent economists:

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/22756

Nouriel Roubini:

[F]iscal policy cannot resolve problems of credit, and it is not without cost. Over the next few years it's going to add about $9 trillion to the US public debt. Niall Ferguson said it's the end of the age of leverage. It's not really. There is not deleveraging. We have all the liabilities of the household sector, of the banks and financial institutions, of the corporate sectors; and now we've decided to socialize these bad debts and to put them on the balance sheet of the government. That's why the public debt is rising. Instead, when you have an excessive debt problem, you have to convert such debt into equity. That's what you do with corporate restructuring—it converts unsecured debt into equity. That's what you should do with the banks: induce the unsecured creditors to convert their claims into equity. You could do the same thing with the housing market. But we're not doing the debt-into-equity conversion. What we're doing is piling public debt on top of private debt to socialize the losses; and at some point the back of some governments' balance sheet is going to break, and if that happens, it's going to be a disaster.

He makes so much sense, it's almost painful to listen.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Rita Pavone: IL BALLO DEL MATTONE (1963)

Movie: Nine Queens

Just saw the 2000 Argentinian film, Nine Queens (Nueve Reina). I try to remember at least one line from each film I see. This film's memorable line occurs after a character asks someone how much it would take for him to do a particular sexual act, hears rejections, and then increases the price until he sees hesitation:

You see? We're not lacking pillow-biters, just financiers.

Ah, the ongoing issue of morality, sex, and price. Overall, a good film. I give it 4/5 stars.

Guantanamo held a 12 year old boy

Congrats to all the Americans who supported Guantanamo under Bush. You favored locking up a 12 year old indefinitely without a trial:

http://sanfranciscochronicle.info/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/05/25/international/i114756D65.DTL

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/us-lawyers-ask-afghan-court-to-help-gitmo-inmate 

U.S. military lawyers asked Afghanistan's highest court Monday to demand the release of a Guantanamo prisoner they say was only about 12 years old — not 18, as the military maintains — when he was sent to the detention center in Cuba.


We knew President Bush was relying on secret evidence and refusing to be transparent. These kinds of embarrassments always happen when citizens don't demand government transparency. The government gets away with violating the Constitution and destroys our goodwill in the process.

Many years ago, I attended a speech by an ACLU attorney who was representing some of the Guantanamo Bay detainees. She told everyone, in a public meeting, that America was holding a 12 years old child in Guantanamo without a trial. If I remember correctly, she also said Guantanamo was holding a 75 years old man. Everyone knew. No one listened.

The next time you decide to trust your government, just ask yourself, "Is secrecy worth violating our own Constitution, the rule of law, checks and balances, and our goodwill?"

© Matthew Rafat (2009)

Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. --Benjamin Franklin

I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst, and to provide for it. --Patrick Henry

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Core-Mark Annual Shareholder Meeting (2009)

I attended Core-Mark's (CORE) annual shareholder meeting on June 2, 2009. The meeting was held in a small conference room at the Hyatt Regency San Francisco Hotel. The only refreshment offered was Starbucks coffee. I was a little disappointed, because food-related companies sometimes display their own products. I did not get a chance to try Java Street items or other Core-Mark products.

Around eight people sat in the audience. Core-Mark's executive team, except for the CFO, sat in the front. Other than my friend and I, everyone attending the meeting had a business or employment relationship with Core-Mark. The Chairman of the Board handled the formal part of the meeting.

Core-Mark started out as a tobacco storefront in San Francisco. It grew into a major supplier of consumer goods to various retailers and became known as Fleming Companies. In 2003, Fleming Cos filed for Ch 11 bankruptcy/reorganization. In 2004, Core-Mark emerged from the ashes of Fleming Cos. For more information on Core-Mark's history, click on the following link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleming_Companies,_Inc

Cigarettes and other tobacco products accounted for 74.9% of Core-Mark's net sales in 2008; however, cigarette sales accounted for only 29.2% of Core-Mark's total gross profit in 2008. (See 10K, page 3.) In short, while Core-Mark continues to sell cigarettes, it has revamped itself into a food/consumer kiosk company. Food and non-food (batteries, etc.) products accounted for 71.0% of Core-Mark's gross profit in 2008. (See 10K, page 4.)

Core-Mark supplies convenience stores, such as 7-Eleven, with refrigerated kiosks containing various products. These kiosks contain packaged salads, bakery items, drinks, sandwiches, juices, fruit, and other items. Core-Mark touts its ability to re-stock its kiosks several times a week, which allows customers to select fresh food. In other words, Core-Mark strives not to be like your grandmother's food kiosks, which tended to sell month-old sandwiches, cigarette packs, and stale candy.

I was the only person who asked questions at the meeting. CEO J. Michael Walsh graciously answered all my questions. I asked how the company would deal with declining cigarette sales and higher "sin"/SCHIP taxes. Mr. Walsh answered that cigarette consumption has been declining for a long time, and as a result, Core-Mark had consciously shifted to the new consumer trend, which was selling fresh food products. He said that Core-Mark wanted to become the leader in fresh food products.

Mr. Walsh also said that higher cigarette taxes actually helped Core-Mark's bottom line. He indicated that rising cigarette taxes allowed Core-Mark to get a higher return on its "working capital." This concept is a bit counter-intuitive, but I will explain it as best as I can.

According to the CEO, Core-Mark must buy "stamps" from states before it can purchase cigarette cartons. These state-issued stamps allow Core-Mark to purchase a certain number of cigarette cartons over a certain period of time. Different states levy different taxes per carton. In California, the current carton tax is $8.70; it is higher in New York.

The "stamp" process functions as a VAT, allowing states to ensure they are paid carton taxes up front rather than at the final point of sale. This process helps states keep track of cigarette sales and may reduce the black market for cigarettes. This system is not perfect. Some entrepreneurs buy cartons in states with lower carton taxes and then illegally re-sell them in nearby states that have higher carton taxes.

Higher carton taxes may help Core-Mark, because Core-Mark buys "stamps" at the beginning of the month; however, it does not have to actually pay for the stamps until later--sometimes up to 30 days later. In the meantime, it still receives its allotment of cigarette cartons and the cash from those carton sales/distributions. That regulatory quirk means Core-Mark sometimes gets a "free" money float of up to 30 days, which helps increase its liquidity. In short, the way states issue "stamps" may result in some companies receiving temporarily subsidized cash flow, which minimizes capital costs. (I hope I've explained this correctly--if not, feel free to correct me by adding a comment.)

Mr. Walsh also indicated that Core-Mark was in a position to consolidate deliveries and take market share from less efficient competitors.

I then asked why cigarette companies wouldn't decide to sell directly to customers, thereby eliminating Core-Mark as a middleman. Mr. Walsh replied that doing so would cost cigarette manufacturers "more money." They would have to "build the infrastructure" first and deal with the "administrative burden" of handing 100,000+ billable accounts. In fact, Mr. Walsh said that some cigarette companies, such as Philip Morris (PM), were favoring third parties as distributors to cut costs. Mr. Walsh's explanation makes perfect sense. If Core-Mark has a highly efficient supply/distribution chain, then its advanced inventory management might act as a wide moat. Walmart, for example, is able to cut its costs by having superior inventory management, but its internal tracking system took years to develop.

I then asked about Core-Mark's pension plan, which is underfunded. (See 10K, page 11.) Under ERISA and other laws, different levels of pension underfunding trigger different corporate fiduciary duties. Companies typically indicate pension funding levels by referring to one of three funding categories: "80% and under"; "80% to 60%"; or "60% and under." When a pension plan falls in the "60% and under" category, it may be a sign that pension assets and investments are being poorly managed. Core-Mark's CFO indicated that the pension was at the 60% level.

I then asked about Core-Mark's executive team and board, which appeared to be non-diverse. More specifically, all Board members appeared to be older Caucasian men. I asked what Core-Mark was doing, if anything, to increase its executive team's diversity. Mr. Walsh pointed out that Core-Mark's CFO was obviously not a white male (she is a white female), and the company was open to diversity. He said that Core-Mark was always open to qualified candidates. Mr. Walsh also indicated that the Board was chosen by Core-Mark's unsecured creditors following Core-Mark's Chapter 11 filing. (In other words, the unsecured creditors were responsible for the Board's composition, and they might be the more relevant party to contact on this issue.)

For a company that was in bankruptcy court just five years ago, Core-Mark has done remarkably well. I especially enjoyed CEO J. Michael Walsh's demeanor and responsiveness. Unlike many CEOs, he answered every single question thoroughly. He had no trace of the arrogance so common in upper-level management. It was a pleasure to meet him.

I had only one issue with the meeting. The Chairman interrupted me once when I was in the middle of a question to ask me for my name, how I held my shares, and the number of shares I owned. He asked me these questions after I had already announced my name and shareholder status. I thought it was inappropriate to ask me how many shares I owned. A shareholder is a shareholder, period. Companies should welcome questions from all shareholders, not just major ones. To date, this is the only company I've seen that has requested this kind of information, i.e., the number of shares held. (There was another issue, but it was minor--a shareholder relations representative wanted me to fill out a name-tag and then complained that my handwriting was illegible. Note to all shareholder relations personnel: you get one day a year to make ordinary shareholders feel welcome. Use it wisely.)

I don't have an opinion on Core-Mark's stock. I haven't bought products from their kiosks, and I'm not a smoker, so I don't have sufficient personal knowledge to state an opinion. It does appear, however, that Core-Mark provides a valuable service to many convenience retailers.

Note: the picture above is of Mr. Walsh and myself.

Disclosure: I own an insignificant number of Core-Mark (CORE) shares.

Update on June 5, 2009: The more I think about the sin/stamp tax issue, the more I think I may have reversed the payment schedule. Perhaps CORE has to buy stamps first and then wait a month or more before receiving cartons to distribute. Otherwise, I am still unclear as to why CORE would make more money when the number of smokers decline. Any comments are appreciated.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

More Wisdom from Charlie Munger

Charlie Munger on desire:

I had a considerable passion to get rich. Not because I wanted Ferraris - I wanted the independence. I desperately wanted it. I thought it was undignified to have to send invoices to other people. I don’t where I got that notion from, but I had it.

More from Charlie Munger here.

McGovern on the Military

George McGovern had a great op-ed in the WSJ yesterday (June 1, 2009):


He makes a lot of good points. For example, I knew we were still spending billions of dollars per month in Iraq and Afghanistan, but $12 billion month? 

We now spend $12 billion a month on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- two mistaken invasions that have increased violence and terrorism in the Middle East... 

There is the terrorist danger, but this is not a military problem. Terrorism is a by-product of military weakness. The terrorist has no battleships, bombers, missiles, tanks, organized armies or heavy artillery. 

The only significant terrorist attack on the U.S., on Sept. 11, 2001, was carried out by 19 young men from Saudi Arabia and Egypt armed only with boxcutters. They used these devices to intimidate the crews of four airplanes into surrendering control of their planes. The terrorists then suicidally flew the planes into buildings. 

This event, which took place nearly a decade ago, dramatized the limitation of a huge military budget in assuring national security. Nonetheless, our military budget is higher than ever -- $515 billion annually, not including the cost of Iraq and Afghanistan. 

This figure is greater than the combined military budgets of the rest of the world. We could defend ourselves with an arms budget half that size. If we directed the $250 billion we could save annually into national health care, improved education, a better environment and restoring our infrastructure, the nation would be more secure, better employed and have a higher standard of life. Or the savings might be used for annual reductions in the national debt. 

McGovern and I seem to think similarly when it comes to this issue. I've voiced similar thoughts in the past:

Monday, June 1, 2009

Anthony Bourdain Speaks in Cupertino, CA (Flint Center)

I'm an Anthony Bourdain fan. (I've written about him before here.) Bourdain's unique blend of intelligence and devil-may-care attitude leads to searing, funny commentary on everything from poverty to Cinnabons. Bay Area residents were treated to a 45 minute Bourdain speech--an extended rant, really--on May 28, 2009. 

Wearing jeans and a sports jacket, Bourdain showed up on stage to wild cheers. He stayed near the podium in the middle of the stage, but never behind it. He didn't have an outline--he spoke from the gut until he ran out of things to say, and then took questions from the audience. 

Bourdain started off by saying he's a good example of what not to do or say, but his two saving graces are his curiosity and his willingness to concede when he's wrong. After that disclaimer, we were off to the races. Bourdain began lambasting Alice Waters and Berkeley residents, both of whom are known for favoring organic food. His point was that Alice Waters and affluent Berkeley residents can afford to buy organic and local food, which is more expensive than non-organic food. He suggested that real organic food is homegrown, and if Alice Waters wanted to promote organic food for the masses, she should show people how to grow food in backyard gardens. At one point, he asked, "Do you think that the people lining up around Popeye's Chicken for 99 cent day are there because the stuff tastes good? No! They're there because it's cheap!" 

Bourdain then talked about how we're fetishizing our food by focusing on ingredients rather than the actual process of cooking. At one point, he joked that by the time a waiter gets done explaining the food on his plate and where it comes from, he's already finished eating the "damn thing." He compared our focus on ingredients to exotic Japanese porn, by which he probably meant that the actors aren't participating in the spirit of the moment, but are behaving in a detached, grotesque manner. 

Although Bourdain admitted to shopping at Whole Foods, he said that these days, organic generally means luxury, and that's not a good development for cooking. After all, real culinary innovation happens when someone takes the table scraps and makes something good out of it. Bourdain said that "cooking" was really the slaves' way of making something good from their masters' table scraps. He had many examples of poverty leading to innovation, mentioning famous chefs and their background. At one point, he asked, "Do you think a rich person looked at a slimy snail on the ground and thought, 'That looks really good to eat?' Of course not! Some poor person was hungry and probably thought, 'If I put enough butter and garlic on that thing, maybe I can manage to choke it down.'"

This is one reason I love Bourdain--he keeps his audience grounded. He believes that innovation comes from starvation, and he reminds us that more often than not, a poor, unknown person is responsible for the food on our plates. (Bourdain believes "The engine of gastronomy is poverty.") You might even say Bourdain's motif is bringing cooking back to the barrio, which explains why he hates celebrity chefs (he's famous for ranting against Rachel Ray). Bourdain did have kind words for Julia Child, though. He said she became famous by demystifying French food and showing people that with some effort, they, too, could make French food.

Basically, to get on Bourdain's good side, you have to recognize the hard-working, innovative people who are responsible for much of our food. That's not to say that Bourdain praises poverty. He reminded us that poverty might look fun when we go on short vacations, but the people in those "bucolic" places want an SUV and satellite TV just like the rest of us. Bourdain didn't talk talk much about fixing poverty, but he wants us to remember who makes the food that goes on our tables. After all, it's not rich people who pick the tomatoes and slaughter the animals we end up eating. One of Bourdain's themes is to remind people that our food has a cost, and the cost is keeping lots of poor people in poverty so they can continue doing the dirty work for us. Bourdain then ranted against poor food choices, asking, "What the f*ck is a Cinnabon? It's got, like, a pound of sugar on it, and every time I'm in the airport, I have to deal with the smell overpowering all the other food choices." On a more serious note, Bourdain said we need to be more careful about what we're feeding our children. He said studies have shown if you put vegetables in a McDonald's wrapper, kids will eat it and say it tastes better than ordinary vegetables served on a plate. (Whoa.) He said he uses reverse psychology on his daughter, Ariane, bashing McDonald's every time he can, and telling his daughter that Ronald McDonald may be mentally-impaired. (Bourdain, being Bourdain, used different words.)

Bourdain also called vegetarians "rude." He said that food is the "purest expression of who we are," and when someone offers you something to eat, you shouldn't tell them, "That looks good, but can I have a spinach salad instead?"

Someone asked Bourdain to name his favorite food. Bourdain said his favorite comfort food is a Vietnamese pho bowl. (I agree!)

Another person asked which countries had the best culinary cultures. Bourdain mentioned Spain and had many kind words for the Spaniards. He also said if you were looking for a cheap, diverse selection of food, Singapore is where you want to be. (I agree! Singapore's food scene was one reason I fell in love with the country.)

Bourdain said he married into a North Italian family, and at home, his wife does much of the cooking. He said he married into the kind of family he always wanted--loud, boisterous, and open.

Bourdain says when he's at home, he's a stay-at-home dad; however, he travels 10 out of 12 months of the year.

Someone asked him about his worst travel experiences. Bourdain named Romania and Uzbekistan. He pilloried Romania's handling of his show, saying that the government did not allow him to go to the backroads to meet with the average residents. He started doing robot-like impersonations of the Romanian government officials on the trip while narrating, "Here is our version of classic Romanian culture..." Bourdain said that after he left, the Romanian papers started calling him a "KGB/Mossad" spy. (I can't wait to see that episode--Bourdain is hilarious when he's snarky.)

Speaking of bad experiences, Bourdain said that he knows his audience likes to see him miserable, but when he travels, he wants to have a good time. He doesn't want to speak badly of anyplace, so when he does become snarky, it's not something that's planned.

If you haven't seen Bourdain's show, "No Reservations" (on the Travel Channel), I highly recommend it. I still haven't read his book, Kitchen Confidential, but I hope to pick it up soon. (A friend loaned me McCarthy's Blood Meridian, but I'm not liking it, so I will probably dump it for Kitchen Confidential.)

All in all, I had a great time hearing Bourdain speak. His genuineness gives Bourdain many loyal fans. One of them even got up on stage to show Bourdain a large tattoo of what appeared to be Bourdain on his leg. Bourdain signed it and hugged him. Not too many celebrities inspire that kind of emotion. Bourdain is an original in a world full of copycats and sycophants. God bless him for being himself.

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2009) 

Note
: I did the best I could to write down Bourdain's words verbatim, but Bourdain speaks quickly and the auditorium was dark, so some of his quotes may be paraphrased.

Sunday, May 31, 2009

Basketball: Orlando and Cleveland

Stat of the Orlando-Cleveland series: Ben Wallace, 22 total rebounds in six games. Remember when that would be his nightly production? I'm not blaming any single player for the loss, but Cleveland needs to give LeBron bigger/taller teammates.

When I look at Cleveland's roster, I see no defensive presence. Wallace is only 6'9''. Gibson, Szczerbiak, and Mo' Williams aren't great defenders. In fact, on many teams, they would be sixth men. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: you can't win an NBA Championship without great defense. If you could, Steve Nash's Phoenix Suns would have three rings now.

My prediction? Orlando in 7 against the Lakers. Orlando's success should not be surprising to fans who followed R. Lewis's career in Seattle. He was putting up 20 points a night regularly. With Turkoglu, Lewis, and Alston, Orlando is always a threat to make a three-pointer, which opens the paint for Howard. As we've seen, that inside-outside threat is difficult to handle. Also, between Pietrus and Howard, Orlando brings enough toughness on defense to win the championship. Pietrus's three-point shooting has been a nice surprise, and if he keeps shooting a high percentage, Orlando will always be in the game.

As for the Lakers, they have Gasol, but he's no Howard. Bynum isn't developed yet to make much of an impact (he scored a whopping 2 points in his most recent game). When you really look at the Lakers' roster, they've got Kobe and Gasol, with the occasional trey from "The Machine." That won't be enough to beat Orlando.

In fact, the only way I see the Lakers winning the championship is if the referees hand them the game. I give Orlando seven games to close out the Lakers, not because I think the talent level is close, but because I think the referees help the Lakers. Orlando is still a young team looking for respect, which hurts them when it comes to getting calls.

For example, did you see the ref call a taunting technical on Howard? On church-going, gospel-listening Dwight Howard?! Meanwhile, Kobe has become much better at handling the referees. Did you see him get Artest tossed? Hands in the air, a look of displeasure on his face, as if to say, "I can't believe I'm in the same room as you." And he still got Artest thrown out. If I'm Stan Van Gundy, I tell my team, "No technicals. I don't care how p*ssed you get. No technicals. We get the ball back and score. Forget the refs. If anyone gets tossed, it'll be me, not you."

Orlando in 7 or fewer.

Sotomayor a Yankees Fan?

The Boston Globe's Ellen Goodman has a great article (May 29, 2009) on Judge Sotomayor:

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/05/29/a_wise_person_for_the_court/

Apparently, Ms. Sotomayor is a Yankees fan. I'm no BoSox fan, but how can she be accused of being pro-underdog when she's cheering on the Yankees? She should have had the good sense to root for the Mets instead, like Julia Stiles.

Best line in the article? Someone describes Justice Roberts as a "relentless champion of the overdog." Hilarious.

Ellen Goodman makes another good point. She reminds us that Justice "O'Connor...praised her successor, John Roberts, saying, 'He's good in every way, except he's not a woman.'"

I talked about Sotomayor before in this post.

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Weekend Recap: Book and Film Rec

Last weekend, I saw a great movie and read a good book.

1. The movie, Sin Nombre, is about two immigrants. One is trying to cross the border to get to New Jersey, while the other is trying to escape being killed by his own gang members. The story is about redemption, loss, and perseverance. Catch this one if you can. A review is here.

2. Mohsin Hamid's book, The Reluctant Fundamentalist, is about an immigrant named Changez ("Changez" is Urdu for "Genghis" Khan, the Mongol invader who attacked the Muslim world). Although this story is about a legal immigrant, one wonders if Changez's troubles aren't as woe-inspiring as the two characters in Sin Nombre.

Changez, a Pakistani immigrant, attends Princeton and falls in love with a woman, who, at first glance, appears to be a beautiful "lioness." After 9/11, she changes, trying to burrow herself in the past, which prevents the relationship from moving forward. By this time, she has become an unexcisable part of Changez. In fact, he has willingly given up part of himself to ensure her happiness and acceptance. Despite gaining the trappings of wealth and prestige (and an American Express expense account), Changez eventually returns to his homeland, a fact we are told upfront.

The story begins with Changez telling his story to an American in a cafe in Lahore, Pakistan. Both men are tense and wary of each other, and while Changez tries to reassure his visitor, it is clear the visitor is on guard. Changez is also on guard, something we see as he provides clues about his visitor. For example, he wonders out loud whether a bulge in the visitor's pocket is a gun or a hidden fanny pack commonly used by theft-wary tourists. We do not know who the American is, but the story builds tension bit by bit and leaves us with an ending that will be interpreted by each reader differently. The Reluctant Fundamentalist can be called a foreign policy Rorschach test. Depending on how you interpret the ending, you will know your view of America, the world, and how they interact.

An interview with the author is here.