If you ever go to Davis, CA--one of my favorite American cities--about an hour away is a farming town called Colusa. There's a bar, Rocco's, that serves excellent food, and the scenery is calming from January until the heat in June.
"And if an epitaph be my story, I'd have a short one ready for my own: I had a lover's quarrel with the world." -- Robert Frost
Monday, April 3, 2017
Thursday, March 30, 2017
Seth Godin, on Hillary Clinton's Chances in 2005
"Hillary Clinton, more than others, has a worldview problem because the vast majority of the electorate has already told itself a story about her... I believe there isn't enough money in circulation to persuade those voters that have already made up their minds to change them." -- from Seth Godin's All Marketers are Liars (2005), pp. 81, hardcover.
Bonus: "Trust is the scarcest resource we've got left. No one trusts anyone." -- pp. 9.
What's my take? Marketers have reached a point where their stories diverge so far from reality, people have stopped listening. The real gamechangers will be the truth-tellers--if the marketers allow them media space.
Bonus: "Hillary Clinton received the most money from Goldman [Sachs] employees and affiliated PACs... during the 2016 election cycle." -- The Atlantic, April 2017, pp. 23. #hillaryclinton
Bonus: "Trust is the scarcest resource we've got left. No one trusts anyone." -- pp. 9.
What's my take? Marketers have reached a point where their stories diverge so far from reality, people have stopped listening. The real gamechangers will be the truth-tellers--if the marketers allow them media space.
Bonus: "Hillary Clinton received the most money from Goldman [Sachs] employees and affiliated PACs... during the 2016 election cycle." -- The Atlantic, April 2017, pp. 23. #hillaryclinton
Monday, March 27, 2017
Western Civilization and its Exiles
 |
| By Rebecca Goldstein, National Geographic (2017) |
The Greek Empire lasted from 776 BC to 323 BC (until the death of Alexander the Great), or about 350 years. Yet, the moment Greece killed Socrates, it was over for the Greeks, who are today the weakest link in the European Union.
The Roman Empire lasted about 500 years.
If any place cannot keep its best people, it will eventually fail or become irrelevant. History is simply a reiteration of places that managed to keep their best people safe while attracting--and keeping--the best people from all over the world.
Propaganda and favorable media coverage play major roles in where people go, because if you never hear of certain places due to dishonest communication or inadequate media access, they won't be able to attract the best people in a systemic or broad manner. The problem is when propaganda deviates significantly from reality, leading to dissatisfaction among both natives and newcomers. Americans are discovering that splintering media and allowing varying levels of honesty is posing major challenges in maintaining societal cohesion.
Bonus: Wisdom is often found in the unlikeliest of places. Guess who?
“His view of American and world politics was so on point and profound and now, eerily prophetic. Even to the last days of his life, even if his mind wasn’t always there, he was devouring the news, reading every newspaper and being an oracle who foresaw what was coming.”
Saturday, March 25, 2017
Book Recommendation: Hilarious Satire of Academia
March 25, 2017
Worldwide Intelligentsia
Wherever, Everywhere
Dear Readers:
I haven't laughed this hard since Me Talk Pretty One Day and David Lodge's similar novel, Changing Places. Jay is a beleaguered English professor who appears to spend most of his time writing letters of recommendation. His writing style is equal parts maudlin, passive-aggressive, and earnest. I needn't say more, I suspect.
An aside: I asked my law professor for a LOR over a month ago, and it took a month, two in-person visits, and about 10 emails to get it. Trying to make it easier for her, and with her agreement, I did it myself and drafted two noncontroversial paragraphs. It still took a month to get the letter. She actually expected an online form (would it cut off her sentences, like in the book?) and looked at me like I was crazy for questioning why it was taking more than 10 minutes to do a copy-and-paste job. Apparently, professors don't mail letters anymore--they have staff and a queue for this sort of thing. When people wonder why Americans voted for Trump, I tell them this story.
"With candor, regret, and a whiff of vengeance,"
Mateo
Update: the author is apparently both witty AND wise. How come female authors "do" male characters so well, but we men can't seem to reciprocate?
Friday, March 24, 2017
Retail Therapy: What's Wrong with Brick-and-Mortar Retail?
Payless Shoes appears headed towards bankruptcy. Sears looks like it's on life support. Does anyone shop at JC Penney anymore?
It's tempting to say retail is dead and appoint Amazon as its pallbearer, but one look at McDonald's, Costco, H&M, Chick-fil-A, In 'N Out, and Dunkin' Donuts tells you brick-and-mortar can work just fine.
Target (TGT), which I own, is the odd duck, so I will focus on it. It used to be Target was retail's darling. Fans would refer to it as "Tar-jay" (with a French accent) to denote some particularly welcoming stores and its exclusive clothing lines. At one point, a famous designer, Isaac Mizrahi, created an exclusive fashion line for Target for five years. The fact that a "discount" retailer was able to carve out a high-end niche, at least in the consumer's mind, is worth further study.
Recently, however, Target has lost its ability to maintain its brand. A series of unfortunate events occurred. In 2013, hackers took advantage of Target's credit card information, a debacle that continued to make headlines through 2015. It exited Canada, admitting defeat in the country. Its exclusive fashion collaborations didn't garner as much appeal as in the past. And it angered fundamentalist conservatives by taking a political stance on unisex bathrooms.
What is happening to Target, whose stock is at a five-year low?
1. As living costs in America have increased, wages haven't kept pace. It's hard to motivate employees when they see employment with you as a temporary gig. At least waiters and bartenders have tips to motivate them, so they can't completely slack off.
2. Today, the main way to differentiate retail is through outstanding customer service. Chick-fil-A has great food, but most people will remember its consistent service long after the taste of spicy chicken has been forgotten. With its relatively low wages, how does Target create consistently excellent customer service?
Note that Costco pays higher wages than the industry norm, which it considers to be part of its competitive advantage because higher wages can reduce employee turnover. American retailers in trouble have failed to adapt to higher living costs while complying with Wall Street's general antipathy to higher wages for unskilled labor.
Canada's Tim Horton's has adapted by hiring foreign-born Filipinas--who have a reputation for excellent customer service--to staff its stores. Obviously it needs its government to be on the same page when it comes to immigration to do this, but Canada, as usual, succeeds where others have failed because of its greater tolerance and dedication to doing what works.
Dunkin' Donuts has adapted by reducing the size of its stores, lowering its overhead and need for additional staff. I'll never forget ordering a sandwich in a Chicago public transportation hub and trying to figure out how Dunkin' fit an entire kitchen in what appeared to be the size of a rich housewife's shoe closet. (Maybe the new retail paradigm is this: can your store fit into an airport or public transportation hub and still succeed? Hopefully not, though I notice bookstores seem to be doing well in airports and nowhere else.)
3. Does anyone think the majority of employees at Payless are experts on the perfect shoe fit or style? Of course not. That's why it's cheap to shop there. In contrast, Asics in Tokyo has a machine to measure your foot and print out data--yours to keep--that helps the Asics employee identify your best shoe choice. After the helpful employee spends all that time with you, you really do want to buy whatever shoe s/he recommends. After all, who am I to doubt science?
As far as I know, Target has no individually-tailored services outside its photo department.
4. Partnerships are an excellent way to keep your brand in the spotlight but difficult to find and even harder to maintain. I knew Olympic Gold medalist Jordan Burroughs would be a superstar long before he became a household name in some circles and abroad, even in Iran. (As proof I'm no bandwagon fan, I donated to his gold medal fund *before* he won the gold. Besides, how could anyone not like his family? http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/10/olympic-wrestler-gets-married-bride-wears-his-signature-shoes-down-the-aisle)
Corporate partnerships are hard. Jordan Burroughs made some comments against excessive police force that could have made him unpopular, but most people appreciated his measured criticism. Meanwhile, Nike dropped the great Manny Pacquiao, and Colin Kaepernick is unemployed.
In Target's case, it's just not getting enough mileage out of its "exclusive" partnerships because consumers figured out if they miss one offering, another will soon appear. The lesson is simple: companies that mislead consumers, even if indirectly, will suffer, because consumers have become smarter about seeing through advertising gimmicks. Target appears to suffer from a case of "MBA-itis"--short-term profits over long-term credibility.
In Asics' case, it not only managed to scoop up the brightest star in a growing sport, it also cultivated a mutually-beneficial relationship with the sport's most respected coach for decades. Is that why they were able to identify and sign Jordan Burroughs before other apparel companies? Maybe not, but it couldn't hurt.
5. Consistency matters. McDonald's might not always provide good customer service, but its coffee will taste the same everywhere in the world. Its only adaptations are specific to local tastes, like adding guacamole to its Mexican burgers or using the term "liberty" in its advertising in Guantanamo Bay (the irony isn't lost on me). When you consider the TSA can't even manage to be consistent in its own country, you'll see achieving consistency isn't easy but key to maintaining your brand's reputation.
In Australia, I eagerly visited a Target store near Chinatown to see how my Target investment was doing. I almost sold my shares the next day. With Australia's affluent customers, you'd think Target would make the country a priority. Yet, the store was not clean and not even organized well. I didn't want to buy a single thing. Even the lighting made me sad.
Perhaps Australia's relatively high currency and higher labor costs make it harder to invest there, but why open a store that will damage your brand's reputation? How hard can it be for the Board's and executive team's spouses and children to travel a few times a year--on their own dime--to international locations and give objective feedback to their family? One visit was all I needed to realize Target lacks the expertise or ability to expand overseas.
It's tempting to say retail is dead and appoint Amazon as its pallbearer, but one look at McDonald's, Costco, H&M, Chick-fil-A, In 'N Out, and Dunkin' Donuts tells you brick-and-mortar can work just fine.
Target (TGT), which I own, is the odd duck, so I will focus on it. It used to be Target was retail's darling. Fans would refer to it as "Tar-jay" (with a French accent) to denote some particularly welcoming stores and its exclusive clothing lines. At one point, a famous designer, Isaac Mizrahi, created an exclusive fashion line for Target for five years. The fact that a "discount" retailer was able to carve out a high-end niche, at least in the consumer's mind, is worth further study.
Recently, however, Target has lost its ability to maintain its brand. A series of unfortunate events occurred. In 2013, hackers took advantage of Target's credit card information, a debacle that continued to make headlines through 2015. It exited Canada, admitting defeat in the country. Its exclusive fashion collaborations didn't garner as much appeal as in the past. And it angered fundamentalist conservatives by taking a political stance on unisex bathrooms.
What is happening to Target, whose stock is at a five-year low?
1. As living costs in America have increased, wages haven't kept pace. It's hard to motivate employees when they see employment with you as a temporary gig. At least waiters and bartenders have tips to motivate them, so they can't completely slack off.
2. Today, the main way to differentiate retail is through outstanding customer service. Chick-fil-A has great food, but most people will remember its consistent service long after the taste of spicy chicken has been forgotten. With its relatively low wages, how does Target create consistently excellent customer service?
Note that Costco pays higher wages than the industry norm, which it considers to be part of its competitive advantage because higher wages can reduce employee turnover. American retailers in trouble have failed to adapt to higher living costs while complying with Wall Street's general antipathy to higher wages for unskilled labor.
Canada's Tim Horton's has adapted by hiring foreign-born Filipinas--who have a reputation for excellent customer service--to staff its stores. Obviously it needs its government to be on the same page when it comes to immigration to do this, but Canada, as usual, succeeds where others have failed because of its greater tolerance and dedication to doing what works.
Dunkin' Donuts has adapted by reducing the size of its stores, lowering its overhead and need for additional staff. I'll never forget ordering a sandwich in a Chicago public transportation hub and trying to figure out how Dunkin' fit an entire kitchen in what appeared to be the size of a rich housewife's shoe closet. (Maybe the new retail paradigm is this: can your store fit into an airport or public transportation hub and still succeed? Hopefully not, though I notice bookstores seem to be doing well in airports and nowhere else.)
3. Does anyone think the majority of employees at Payless are experts on the perfect shoe fit or style? Of course not. That's why it's cheap to shop there. In contrast, Asics in Tokyo has a machine to measure your foot and print out data--yours to keep--that helps the Asics employee identify your best shoe choice. After the helpful employee spends all that time with you, you really do want to buy whatever shoe s/he recommends. After all, who am I to doubt science?
As far as I know, Target has no individually-tailored services outside its photo department.
4. Partnerships are an excellent way to keep your brand in the spotlight but difficult to find and even harder to maintain. I knew Olympic Gold medalist Jordan Burroughs would be a superstar long before he became a household name in some circles and abroad, even in Iran. (As proof I'm no bandwagon fan, I donated to his gold medal fund *before* he won the gold. Besides, how could anyone not like his family? http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/10/olympic-wrestler-gets-married-bride-wears-his-signature-shoes-down-the-aisle)
Corporate partnerships are hard. Jordan Burroughs made some comments against excessive police force that could have made him unpopular, but most people appreciated his measured criticism. Meanwhile, Nike dropped the great Manny Pacquiao, and Colin Kaepernick is unemployed.
In Target's case, it's just not getting enough mileage out of its "exclusive" partnerships because consumers figured out if they miss one offering, another will soon appear. The lesson is simple: companies that mislead consumers, even if indirectly, will suffer, because consumers have become smarter about seeing through advertising gimmicks. Target appears to suffer from a case of "MBA-itis"--short-term profits over long-term credibility.
In Asics' case, it not only managed to scoop up the brightest star in a growing sport, it also cultivated a mutually-beneficial relationship with the sport's most respected coach for decades. Is that why they were able to identify and sign Jordan Burroughs before other apparel companies? Maybe not, but it couldn't hurt.
5. Consistency matters. McDonald's might not always provide good customer service, but its coffee will taste the same everywhere in the world. Its only adaptations are specific to local tastes, like adding guacamole to its Mexican burgers or using the term "liberty" in its advertising in Guantanamo Bay (the irony isn't lost on me). When you consider the TSA can't even manage to be consistent in its own country, you'll see achieving consistency isn't easy but key to maintaining your brand's reputation.
In Australia, I eagerly visited a Target store near Chinatown to see how my Target investment was doing. I almost sold my shares the next day. With Australia's affluent customers, you'd think Target would make the country a priority. Yet, the store was not clean and not even organized well. I didn't want to buy a single thing. Even the lighting made me sad.
Perhaps Australia's relatively high currency and higher labor costs make it harder to invest there, but why open a store that will damage your brand's reputation? How hard can it be for the Board's and executive team's spouses and children to travel a few times a year--on their own dime--to international locations and give objective feedback to their family? One visit was all I needed to realize Target lacks the expertise or ability to expand overseas.
[Correction and Update from Wikipedia: "Despite the similar logo, name and type of outlets, Target Australia [founded as Lindsays] carries no corporate connection or relation to the US discount retailer, Minneapolis, MN-based Target Corporation."]
Conclusion: Target has many problems that justify its current low stock price and will need to think long-term to stay relevant. Its issues expanding internationally need to be addressed immediately.
Conclusion: Target has many problems that justify its current low stock price and will need to think long-term to stay relevant. Its issues expanding internationally need to be addressed immediately.
© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2017)
Disclosure: I own Target shares and other retailer company shares as part of mutual funds and/or ETFs, but my positions may change at any time. You are responsible for your due diligence. Nothing herein is intended to be investment advice.
Disclosure: I own Target shares and other retailer company shares as part of mutual funds and/or ETFs, but my positions may change at any time. You are responsible for your due diligence. Nothing herein is intended to be investment advice.
Thursday, March 23, 2017
Random Act of Kindness
I got an unexpected package in the mail today. I saw an Amazon Prime sticker, and I don't have Amazon Prime. I opened it and my favorite things in the world were in it: books.
First thought: "Finders, keepers."
Second thought: "Dammit, that's a lot of books. Someone will be inconvenienced. Let me check the label."
Third thought: "That's my name on the label. What's going on?"
Fourth thought: "Well, it's morally wrong to keep all these books, so I have to return them to Amazon. Dammit, I hope this won't take a lot of time."
Fifth thought: (rummaging through papers, see the one marked "gift," but presume it's the standard gift receipt that comes with every package) "The receipt lists the books correctly. I wonder how Amazon screwed this up." (Starts looking through books, thinking maybe I'll read one before sending back.)
Sixth thought: "That's a gift receipt. Let's look at it more closely... It's from a law school friend?! All I did was a very small thing for him, and he's a great guy... Wait, he sent me a gift? I got a surprise gift?!"
Seventh thought: "Who's chopping onions in a goddamn post office?!"
Wednesday, March 22, 2017
Remnants of Western Civilization
When they study the remains of American culture, I hope they see this Facebook debate. I'm not sure if these people are paid to post online as part of a strategy to discredit both major parties in the U.S., but I don't think these comments could be made by anyone in a foreign country--the language used is clearly U.S.-based.
Mateo: [posts blog link]
KM (older white American male, appears to have some connection to the University of Kansas): "Sounds like mateo is one of those compassionate conservatives that believes in throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Punish all the children because you are too lazy to go after the few corrupt adults...
when was the last time right wringers like you ever built anything that did not benefit you or your buddies rather than the community. So tried of hearing you selfish a-holes trying to tear down any and everything that made this a great country. Tell you what, if everything in this country -- public schools, unions, EPA, minimum wage laws are so bad -- why don't you leave and move down some third world country that has no regulations or laws.
meanwhile the real Americans will stay here, pay our taxes and support our troops and work to make this a better country for everyone."
Mateo: Keith, let's try this again.
Step 1: read post: https://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2017/03/why-wont-someone-think-of-children.html
Step 2: make specific points relating to the content in the blog post.
Step 3: support your comments with links to supporting evidence, preferably from nonpartisan sources.
Step 4: if you skip steps 2 and 3, you concede the debate by your inaction or inability to refute any of the facts or statements.
LS (white American female, appears to have studied at UC Berkeley and UC Santa Cruz): "Hey Mateo, could you post that link again please? I'm not sure everyone has seen it yet."
Mateo: (for the record, I've never been a registered Republican, but there's nothing worse than a well-meaning but ineffective liberal) "Step 4: first failure. Which other publicly educated liberal will fail this simple test while railing against standardized testing? Stay tuned..."
LS: [watch as white American female starts making personal attacks rather than responding to any of the content in the blog] "So, you're putting rules in place now? Why don't you go be condescending somewhere else maybe? Going around in circles and posting the same thing over and over when people are trying to engage you in another way is totally counter-productive. Controlling much?"
Mateo: Step 4: Repeat failure. Slow learner.
LS: [yes, she actually said this.] Oh I think it's clear who the repeat failure is here!
Mateo: [ok, now I had to bring out "full snark"] Alert: native born, entitled white American unaware that much of her success is due to luck and legal structures. Completely impervious to logic. Wants to be paid 10 times more than foreign workers while bringing 10 times less to the table. Loves the Daily Show but unable to handle same tactics applied to herself.
LS: Alert: asshole. See, I can play too!
Mateo: [Um, actually, you can't.] Alert. Step 4 failure. Again.
LS: Step 5: Mateo pretends he knows everyone and everything. Should I make up rules to follow and then repeatedly say you are failing when you refuse to play? We could do this all day! [Apparently, trying to limit discussion in productive ways is somehow not permissible.]
KM: [re-enters the fray!] Please forgive matty -- he thinks the more he attacks people the smarter he is
LS: Oh I'm sure he's the smartest. I bet he thinks bigly.
Mateo: [posts blog link]
KM (older white American male, appears to have some connection to the University of Kansas): "Sounds like mateo is one of those compassionate conservatives that believes in throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Punish all the children because you are too lazy to go after the few corrupt adults...
when was the last time right wringers like you ever built anything that did not benefit you or your buddies rather than the community. So tried of hearing you selfish a-holes trying to tear down any and everything that made this a great country. Tell you what, if everything in this country -- public schools, unions, EPA, minimum wage laws are so bad -- why don't you leave and move down some third world country that has no regulations or laws.
meanwhile the real Americans will stay here, pay our taxes and support our troops and work to make this a better country for everyone."
Mateo: Keith, let's try this again.
Step 1: read post: https://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2017/03/why-wont-someone-think-of-children.html
Step 2: make specific points relating to the content in the blog post.
Step 3: support your comments with links to supporting evidence, preferably from nonpartisan sources.
Step 4: if you skip steps 2 and 3, you concede the debate by your inaction or inability to refute any of the facts or statements.
LS (white American female, appears to have studied at UC Berkeley and UC Santa Cruz): "Hey Mateo, could you post that link again please? I'm not sure everyone has seen it yet."
Mateo: (for the record, I've never been a registered Republican, but there's nothing worse than a well-meaning but ineffective liberal) "Step 4: first failure. Which other publicly educated liberal will fail this simple test while railing against standardized testing? Stay tuned..."
LS: [watch as white American female starts making personal attacks rather than responding to any of the content in the blog] "So, you're putting rules in place now? Why don't you go be condescending somewhere else maybe? Going around in circles and posting the same thing over and over when people are trying to engage you in another way is totally counter-productive. Controlling much?"
Mateo: Step 4: Repeat failure. Slow learner.
LS: [yes, she actually said this.] Oh I think it's clear who the repeat failure is here!
Mateo: [ok, now I had to bring out "full snark"] Alert: native born, entitled white American unaware that much of her success is due to luck and legal structures. Completely impervious to logic. Wants to be paid 10 times more than foreign workers while bringing 10 times less to the table. Loves the Daily Show but unable to handle same tactics applied to herself.
LS: Alert: asshole. See, I can play too!
Mateo: [Um, actually, you can't.] Alert. Step 4 failure. Again.
LS: Step 5: Mateo pretends he knows everyone and everything. Should I make up rules to follow and then repeatedly say you are failing when you refuse to play? We could do this all day! [Apparently, trying to limit discussion in productive ways is somehow not permissible.]
KM: [re-enters the fray!] Please forgive matty -- he thinks the more he attacks people the smarter he is
LS: Oh I'm sure he's the smartest. I bet he thinks bigly.
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