In February 2021, I decided to start a collection of quotes from Wall Street executives and pundits.
February 9, 2021: "Now there are, with very few exceptions, no sectors that are cheap. [Yet] I think the market will gradually grind up during the year. I don’t see a correction anytime soon, unless the situation changes dramatically." -- JP Morgan's co-president Daniel Pinto (source: CNBC) [Shiller P/E Ratio 35.62]
February 10, 2021: "If there is a bubble anywhere, it is not in the equity market, it is in the fixed-income market." -- Cathie Wood, chief executive of ARK Invest (source: CNBC) [Shiller P/E Ratio: 35.59]
February 17, 2021: from Eddy Elfenbein's blog:
Mark Hulbert has an interesting column at MarketWatch. It’s about a trio of academics who have devised a bubble-spotting formula.
"Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years... Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software. Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told Barron’s that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they 'rarely are marketwide' events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued."
March 26, 2021: from Barron's, by Andrew Bary, headline: "Higher Taxes? Deficit Spending? Why the Stock Market Isn't Worried." [Shiller P/E Ratio: 35.75]
March 27, 2021: from Bloomberg, by Ishika Mookerjee, Albertina Torsoli, and Lisa Pham, headline: "Funds Bet on a Consumer Boom to Rival 'Roaring Twenties.'" [Shiller P/E Ratio: 35.75]
[Note: The Great Depression--and stock market crash in 1929--occurred after the excesses of the Roaring Twenties, as well as indications Germany would not honor WWI reparations.]
April 8, 2021: from CNBC, by Kevin Stankiewicz, quoting Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel: "It isn’t until the Fed leans really hard then you have to worry. I mean, we could have the market go up 30% or 40% before it goes down that 20%... We’re not in the ninth inning here. We’re more like in the third inning of the boom." [Shiller P/E Ratio: 36.81]
April 11, 2021: "The path of least resistance for US equities remains higher." -- Bill Miller, CFA (S&P 500 4128.60)
April 15, 2021: "From a traditional perspective, the market is fractured and possibly in the process of breaking completely." -- David Einhorn
May 23, 2021: "In real terms, the home prices have never been so high. My data goes back over 100 years... I don’t think that the whole thing is explained by central bank policy. There is something about the sociology of markets that’s happening." -- Robert Shiller, CNBC.com [Shiller P/E Ratio: 36.86]
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