Wednesday, July 10, 2019

A New Geopolitical Structure: Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood

In this video, I explain the 22nd and 23rd centuries will not belong to the three post-WWII superpowers; instead, the future belongs to countries unstained by slavery, expansion at any cost, and petrocurrencies. Previously, Russia and USA divided the world in pursuit of oil while China used its large consumer population and formerly low-cost producer status to steadily gain economic ground. Today, increasingly disfavored oil and petrochemical production--no longer viable long-term due to environmental concerns and advances in renewable energy--are breaking apart the old military-industrial order. Meanwhile, China hasn't served as a low-cost producer in a decade, bringing it in direct competition with USA and weakening the standard debt-investment recycling model. 

The stage is now set for developing countries to leverage their demographic advantages and set the terms of trade amongst themselves using geographical proximity to reduce transaction and transportation costs. They can also control currency manipulation by focusing on trade with neighbors and in currencies within their own geographic trade zones, thereby reducing dependence on foreign navies, foreign shipping insurance, and disinterested currency speculators. In pursuing a new path forward, so-called "developing" countries can create alternatives to an increasingly immoral Western economic order based on military spending, debt slavery, segregation, and selective inflation. The keys are 1) creating a stable banking system based on a partnership and employee ownership model; 2) minimizing petrocurrency country influence by focusing on trade with nearby countries; and 3) promoting media and creative outlets based on accurate, human-led language translations within each geographic region. What worked for Mr. Rogers can work for countries, too: "Won't you be my (economic) neighbor?" 

(Video HERE.) 

Bonus I: I realize satellite technology is becoming more vital to planned economies, but one wonders if developed countries, in racing towards space, will neglect their citizens left behind on Earth. 

Bonus II: a 20 minute follow-up to the first video can be found HERE. Ultimately, de-globalization will not mean less international trade, but less dependency on complex international tribunals. Such international tribunals often favor post-WWII superpowers' interests based on the potential to coerce less developed countries through currency arbitrage and tariffs/sanctions/export controls
From Bloomberg's Matt Levine (June/July 2019 newsletter)
In the future, one can imagine scenarios where countries with "weaker" currencies band together through more focused regional trade agreements while importing technology from non-regional countries. As long as most trade is between countries with "weaker" currencies, the ability of more developed countries to set economic rules or to withhold vital resources is diminished. Once developing countries have achieved enough trade amongst themselves, they can then focus on building foreign currency reserves as a further buffer against non-regional interference. 

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