Tests from Harvard

Most of us believe we harbor no prejudices against others. Harvard University has devised several tests to see if we make implicit associations about certain groups. Here is the link:

https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/demo/takeatest.html

Have fun.

World's Fastest People?

Rich People, Free Links

Two great links:

1. Warren Buffett's financial advice:

http://www.billshrink.com/blog/lessons-wealth-warren-buffet

“Live your life as simply as possible.”

2. Worst financial gurus:

http://www.billshrink.com/blog/worst-financial-gurus

I really, really dislike the book, Rich Dad, Poor Dad. I am ecstatic that someone finally called out Kiyosaki.

Random Thoughts: American Express, Kraft, and MGM

1. American Express (AXP) CEO Kenneth Chenault had these sobering words to say (from American Express's 2008 Annual Report):

The experience of the past year reinforces the principle that people should not spend more than they have the capacity to earn and pay back. And financial services companies should not encourage people to get over their heads in debt. Healthier consumer behavior is better for everyone in the long run. (Shareholder letter, page 9)

You might say Mr. Chenault deserves an obviousness award, except that millions of Americans are currently swimming in mortgage and credit card debt.

The upside is that American Express has plenty of room to grow: "Today, cash is used for about two-thirds of global personal consumption." Every time someone uses a credit card instead of cash, American Express receives a transaction fee. If American Express continues to successfully expand, it will make plenty of money.

On a side note, I don't understand why American Express isn't issuing credit cards with embedded chips here in the States. Almost all American credit card companies are still using the old magnetic strip technology, which is lovely--if you're into identity theft.

Magnetic strip technology makes stealing your credit card information very easy. The Europeans have figured this out and have mostly switched to embedded chip technology. American Express's Blue card used to offer embedded chip technology, but that's apparently been replaced by an ExpressPay system. If you have information about whether the ExpressPay system is more secure than the embedded chip technology, please post a comment.

2.I just realized that all of my lunch items, except for the bread, are Kraft-branded (KFT). This wasn't intentional--I don't care about brand names and usually focus on price. As a result, I was surprised when I peeked in my sandwich drawer and saw a) Kraft cheese (I love Kraft's extra sharp cheddar); b) Kraft mayo (with olive oil); and c) Oscar-Mayer lunch meats. (Kraft owns Oscar Mayer.) As more Americans brown-bag their lunches to save money, Kraft stands to benefit.

Also, Kraft recently provided me with good customer service, which is an important marketplace differentiator. In an era of increasing generic and store-branded competition, customer service matters more than ever. My issue related to Oscar-Mayer lunch meats. I complained that a package of turkey slices went bad too early. Nothing else in the same fridge drawer went bad, not even the other lunch meats. I asked Kraft to double-check their packaging on that particular item. I received a letter from a Kim M that acknowledged my issue, along with a coupon for a replacement pack. Now that's excellent customer service. Kudos to Kraft and Kim M.

3. Some interesting tidbits from MGM Mirage's (MGM) annual report:

Wasn't 2008 Supposed to Be the Bottom?: "Our current expectations for 2009 indicate that operating cash flow will be lower than in 2008." (page 3)

Yield Premiums Gone Wild: MGM issued $850 million of 11.125% senior secured notes due 2017 (page 4). Treasuries currently offer around a 3% yield. When a company has to offer 11%+ secured notes to attract financing, that's scary, isn't it?

Someone Benefited from Hurricane Katrina?: MGM received "insurance recoveries of $635 million which exceeded the $265 million of net book value of damaged assets and post-storm costs incurred...[MGM] recognized $284 million of insurance recoveries in income." (page 8)

I have little sympathy for MGM. During its 2008 annual shareholder meeting, I asked (former) CEO Terrence Lanni how he planned to adjust to the changing economic environment. I suggested he should lower prices and stop charging for basic items like internet access. He disagreed and seemed to mock my concerns. Other than licensing the MGM name, I didn't see any new streams of revenue. I left that meeting stunned that MGM's management didn't seem to feel the need for major changes. And so it goes.

Disclosure: I may own an insignificant number of shares in AXP, MGM, and KFT. The ownership of shares, if any, has not influenced any opinions expressed above.

Are Cities Using Parking/Speeding as Revenue Generators?

A driver was pulled over for going under the speed limit:

http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/I-Cant-Drive-65.html

And S.F. issued a citation to a driver who hadn't curbed his wheels...on an almost flat street:

http://www.mercurynews.com/localnewsheadlines/ci_12876699?nclick_check=1

As cities get less revenue from taxes and the state, they may use parking citations and tickets as revenue generators. Beware.

John Mauldin on Globalization and Leverage

From John Mauldin (July 17, 2009):

Globalization is a two-edged sword. On balance, it has brought prosperity to those who have embraced it, with rising lifestyles, better health, longer lives, and more. The more we need each other, the less likely it is that we'll shoot each other. Shooting your customers is not a good business strategy. And while the growth has not been even or smooth, only a Luddite would want to return to the early 1800s or 1900s, or even 1975.

The other edge of that sword? We are connected in so very many ways, far more than most of the world suspected. Who thought that insane lending policies at US mortgage banks would bring the world financial system to its knees, increasing unemployment and leading to a global recession?

I love the statement that killing your customers isn't a good business strategy. Mr. Mauldin also comments on leverage--and it's becoming fairly easy to see that leverage is what killed the golden goose:

In the first few years of the G.W. Bush administration, the banking authorities decided it would be OK to allow five banks to increase their leverage from 12:1 up to 30:1. Which five banks, you ask? Bear Stearns, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs. How did that work out, just five years later? Three are gone and two survived with large dollops of taxpayer money...Thirty times leverage means that if you lose 3.3%, you wipe out all your capital.

Some stocks fluctuate 3.3% in just one day. Even when I was leveraged just two to one times, I had difficulty sleeping. How did these investment bankers do it? How could they have been so irresponsible, gambling on non-tangible investments? Regular banks are highly leveraged, too, but they usually invest in tangible items like houses.

All this makes me yearn for the good old days--when banks were simple creatures, loaning money at an interest rate higher than their deposit interest rate. Wall Street's unconscionable leverage is exactly why more Americans should look to credit unions for their banking needs.

Note: Barry Ritholtz mentioned the same issue--leverage--in his book, Bailout Nation:

Thus we learn that the tragic financial events of 2008 and 2009 are not an unfortunate accident. Rather, they are the results of a conscious SEC decision to allow these firms to legally violate net capital rules that had existed for decades, limiting broker-dealers' debt-to-net-capital ratio to 12-to-1. You couldn't make this stuff up if you tried. (page 144)

[Update on December 2017: Turns out Ritholtz was wrong. More here: https://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2017/09/2008-financial-crisis.html]
If Congress wants to help mitigate the next financial bubble, it needs to pass laws restricting leverage. So far, I haven't seen any proposed bills that attempt to resolve systemic risk in the financial markets. That's a crying shame.

Required blurb: John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the free Thoughts From the Frontline that goes to over 1 million readers each week. For more information on John or his FREE weekly economic letter go to:

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/learnmore

Taxpayers Take Over Delphi's Pensions

From Calculated Risk:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/pbgc-to-assume-delphi-pension-plans.html

Companies underfund pensions to boost their bottom line, similar to California borrowing education monies to balance its budget. This is perfectly legal. I don't understand why the law allows companies or the state to use accounting gimmicks to project an image of financial health. If companies offer pensions, they should fully fund the pension plan at all times. Otherwise, if the company doesn't do well, eventually the taxpayer is on the hook for the pensions--as in the case of Delphi.