On Elizabeth Warren's Tragic Banality

Bloomberg News recently reported Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren and her husband earned almost 1 million USD in 2018, proving America's national politics are a contest between the out-of-touch and the even more out-of-touch. (Two days after the media disclosed her income, Warren attended an event with boxes from Dunkin' Donuts, America's working-class brand.) Outsiders like Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump are popular because they seem relatable, but are they really so different? 

Both Bill and Barack were raised by single mothers and became Ivy League lawyers, an unorthodox but similar path. Donald Trump graduated from the Wharton School, part of an Ivy League institution. Elizabeth Warren's husband is an Ivy League law school professor and she herself is a former Harvard law professor. It appears the American presidency is reserved for the Ivy League, which may explain voter disenchantment and America's fascination with anyone politically incorrect. 

The Democrats' tone-deaf support of Warren should come as no surprise, especially after Hillary Clinton's nomination. Like Hillary, Warren is an excellent candidate on paper. She has brothers in the military, supports unions, and is hostile to big banks, all positions designed to attract as many voters as possible. Her oft-mocked claim of Native American heritage makes sense in light of Oklahoma's broadly-defined affiliation and her team's desire to market her to all possible groups. Yet, I am falling asleep as I write this, and I had ample energy (and coffee and tea) before I began writing. 

It's tempting to say Ivy League institutions extinguish students' ability to be appealing or authentic, but JFK, who had a surfeit of charisma and appeal, is a Harvard graduate and therefore an Ivy Leaguer. Before him, the most maverick Supreme Court Justice, William O. Douglas--nicknamed Wild Bill--attended Ivy League Columbia University. 

Perhaps it's the times we live in? Eighteen years of perpetual warfare, extrajudicial killings (including at least one U.S. citizen), hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths overseas, and the fecklessness of the legal establishment couldn't have helped, but I think the matter goes deeper. When we allowed our politicians and intelligence agencies to call civilian deaths "collateral damage," the American spirit was diminished. The minute Democratic Secretary of State Madeline Albright casually dismissed 500,000 child deaths resulting from her government's policies, "American leadership" became an oxymoron. The moment Congress began using semantics to stretch the definition of torture, America's moral ground was lost. Today, we speak of compassion as if it is a foreign or missing element in our society, and we may be right. 

I've always believed human intuition is underrated--one particular scene from Carl Sagan's Contact plays in my mental background whenever I debate--and as we move closer to a society controlled by machines, whether physical or digital, we allow our culture to be further dictated by numbers and data unable to understand integrity or compassion. As such, our current endgame is necessarily dystopian, though even dystopian fiction fails to realize its heroes and heroines would not exist in a society where surveillance has been perfected. 

Indeed, the primary glue holding societies together is not money, security, or education but genuine interest in one another. Family matters because such interest is presumed, but whether we succeed depends on how broadly each familial unit can extend its definition of family. A cap exists on how much stretching can occur, a limit inapplicable to semantics or data, a fact that ought to make us more skeptical of anyone or anything refusing to acknowledge inherent bounds. 

Speaking of limits, if Elizabeth Warren is nominated as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, it will represent definitive evidence her party is so far removed from reality, the time for a viable third party or independent candidate has finally come. Warren has no humility, no workable original ideas (her anti-trust proposals are copied from the EU), and no charisma. When she does have an original idea, it makes no sense (this often occurs when someone has never run a business or personally filed tax returns). For example, her latest idea to tax corporate profits above 100 million while disallowing various credits or deductions may have extinguished Amazon Web Services and allowed China's Alibaba to dominate world commerce. In short, Warren is incapable of shielding honest citizens from the tidal wave of complexity involving unions and Wall Street; business and immigration; military and industry; education and politics; inflation and necessities; overlapping jurisdictions and accountability; and entitlements and debt. 

A society collapses not when a tyrant is elected, but when the opposition cannot admit its mistakes and proffer practical solutions. This counterintuitive dynamic occurs because tyrants are elected or put into power when societies finally realize--always too late--they are on the wrong path. To reverse decline, the opposition, which has been asleep, must 1) admit it has misjudged the facts as well as the remedies (including a failure to co-opt more radical elements within its ranks); and 2) correctly identify the numerous factors that have brought everyone to the present-day situation. Absent this humble, analytical approach, the tyrant will continue to prevail by canceling programs s/he deems unnecessary, then diverting revenue to allied interest groups, thereby solidifying his/her power. 

In the end, progressives need to realize "checks and balances" are just words in legislators' books and inherently inferior to paper conferring financial gain. (If nothing else, Donald Trump knows this aforementioned truth.) No judge or lawyer has ever been able to withstand the chaos spread by a climate of fear combined with the wholesale disintegration of government funding to existing large groups. The number of paths to a police state are many and simple, while the way out is labyrinthine and difficult. Let's hope Americans realize Elizabeth Warren gives them the most difficult maze possible for a re-emergence. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2019) 

Mom's Birthday

Me: [Taking photos of Mom, texted her the photos] 

Mom: [in Al Pacino's Godfather tone] "What is this? I'm in my pajamas! In my pajamas! Where did you put these photos?"

Me: "Facebook, Twitter, Instagram."

Mom: [Realizes I'm joking] 

Me: "Ok, I just sent it to Marjan [my sister]."

Mom: [Silent] 

Me: "Wait, this would make a good blog post." 

Mom: [Still silent] 

Summary: House Judiciary Committee Hearing on Hate Crimes (2019)

At the House Judiciary Committee's hearing yesterday to examine and discuss white nationalism and hate crimes, Google admitted to manipulating search results based on subjective factors if content was controversial, i.e., "on the border." Only Rep. Tom McClintock of California pushed back hard, saying the power to decide what speech is acceptable and what is not can be dangerous. 

I've personally had an innocuous comment I tried posting on Instagram blocked before I was able to post it, showing the reach of AI. The reason given in the pop-up box was that I was "bullying" an Iowa wrestling coach and former Olympic contender, but no reasonable human being would classify my criticism as bullying. As Rep. McClintock pointed out, "bullying" can be pretext to censor legitimate criticism, and in doing so, prevent progress and transparency. On a more basic level, allowing corporations power over acceptable speech could also become a way to extract an "advertising tax" on individuals and businesses to resolve an image issue if they are caught in an algorithm's web. Such a dynamic feeds monopolies (and more difficult anti-trust enforcement) by favoring large over small businesses. 

People in positions of power ought to be scrutinized fairly and on all the facts. An unaccountable entity--whether corporate or government--picking and choosing which facts to include or exclude enables poor leadership. Worse, it prevents local leaders and voters from properly utilizing their powers, causing a loss of credibility on all sides and potential backlash (e.g., President Trump). By the way, that Iowa wrestling coach I tried posting a comment about? Almost no one knows he was accused of sexual assault, leading to an interesting (and public) court battle (Brands v. Sheldon Community School, 671 F. Supp. 627 (N.D. Iowa 1987)). 

My Twitter recap of the hearing is below: 

Two other issues arose: 1) many states lack appropriate hate crime laws, so the federal government should consider establishing a better minimum baseline; and 2) both state and federal laws do little to nothing to address widespread "doxxing" problems, i.e., revelation of private contact information specifically for purposes of harassment. 

Book Review: One Day by David Nicholls

It's so hard to find a good love story these days, one wonders if love itself is hiding in the shadows, waiting for someone to properly articulate its existence. David Nicholls did his best in 2009 with his book, One Day, adapted into a film starring Anne Hathaway. The film is good--I admit to crying at the end, despite knowing the plot--but not a true adaptation. 

From the beginning, Hathaway was a risky choice to play a rebellious, Doc Marten's-wearing character with a pen Shakespeare would envy. We see glimpses of youthful defiance when Hathaway wears an anti-war t-shirt and peace buttons on her jacket, but she plays the character as Desdemona to a second-tier Othello, whereas Nicholls wrote her character as far more interesting, more punk genius than lovelorn robin. 

Let me do my best to fill in the gaps in case you make the mistake of not reading the book. We all know the "Cinderella meets Rich Prince" motif has been explored to death, but Nicholls infuses Emma Morley with such verve, no one would dare think her inferior in any way to her would-be prince, Dexter Mayhew. Sadly, the film omits the written correspondence between the two protagonists as they travel in different directions, keeping in touch except for brief periods. Like Cinderella's spic-and-span work ethic, Emma's letters establish her as unjustly downtrodden, her descriptions of colleagues and roommates alternating between comedy and tragedy: "I asked him [a fellow theater actor playing a slave] to get me a packet of crisps [aka chips] in this café the other day and he looked at me like I was OPPRESSING him or something." 

It is within these same letters we understand Emma's unconditional love for Dexter, springing from the vast differences between them, including his privileged upbringing: "I know your whole childhood was spent playing French cricket on a bloody great chamomile lawn and you never did anything as déclassé as watch the telly..." Cinderella never mocked her prince, nor displayed the aptitude to do so, which is why such Disney stories are unappealing to intelligent adults. In contrast, Emma uses Dexter's status as modern-day royalty to showcase her sharp wit, and in doing so, make him a better man. Consequently, the best comparison to One Day isn't Cinderella or Othello, but a transposed riff on Pretty Woman, with Richard Gere's charm intact but his money replaced by intelligence: "Yes, you had to be smart, but not Emma-smart. Just politic, shrewd, ambitious," Dexter tells himself while considering career options.  

And yet, Dexter isn't exactly the male bimbo caricature the film makes him out to be. It's true the director makes us ache for Dexter's lost potential at every turn, at one point giving him as vacuous a girlfriend as imaginable, a showbiz tart who makes Kim Kardashian look worthy of a Nobel Prize in Physics. Dexter's portrayal is unfair because first, he's lost his mother to cancer, which clearly upends his very being, given his emotional distance from his disapproving father (who, interestingly, married a woman far more classy than he deserved, as both the film and book insinuate--at least until the very end). 

Moreover, unlike the stereotypical bimbo or cad, Dexter knows he's not smart, so he tries to find a niche where he can prove his worth. He knows the entire time he can't compete on any level-playing field in the real world, which is why he's so ashamed to face his mother's expectations, and why he's so smitten with Emma: "Without her[,] he is without merit or virtue or purpose..." For her part, Emma knows she's the perfect foil for Dexter, and without him, she wouldn't have a punching bag, er, muse capable of helping her reach Tysonian or Lewisian heights. Unfortunately, the film underestimates its audience by expressly telling us their union is about opposites attracting, even giving Dexter a ying-and-yang ankle tattoo (at least it wasn't on his lower back). 

There are so many ways to interpret the book--the proletariat's place in a bourgeois world being just one of them--I'll stop and let you explore Nicholls' writing yourself. If you've already seen the movie, here's one excerpt that should give you an idea of the book's higher workmanship: 

Here's to smart, witty, kind women. If you find one who loves you, cherish her and have a nice life. 

© Matthew Rafat (2019)

History Repeats Itself Because the Political Class Lacks Imagination and Courage

Everyone seems agog over Anand Giridharadas' ideas, but I'm not impressed with him--or anyone else commenting on America's slow but steady descent into an amoral police state. In fact, the more I study American history, the more I realize America's leaders have been repeating mistakes by copying ideas from the past without realizing different times need different solutions. During the most recent recession, for example, Congress was atwitter over whether to extend unemployment insurance, and it eventually did--copying its exact response from the Eisenhower era over fifty years ago: 

Q. Mr. Vandercook: Do you have in mind so far any intention of proposing legislation to assist the States to continue unemployment benefits beyond the 6 months' period, as that 6 months, in many instances, is running out? 

THE PRESIDENT. I have forgotten for sure whether that was in the bill that went to the Congress or not. I remember the subject was discussed by Mrs. Hobby in front of me, and I would have to ask Mr. Hagerty to give you the exact thing as to whether it was actually in the bill. 

From 2013-2014, Congress extended unemployment insurance by 3 months, then continued it another 3 months. (See HR 3546, 3813, 3824, 3936, etc.) Why the sameness? Here's where Anand Giridharadas succeeds: he points out the political class has no real interest in changing the status quo anywhere. 

Now go and look at the kinds of people who enter politics. In almost every single case, they are from an affluent background or lack the real-life experience to overcome secondhand information (President Obama and the military, etc.). If you are someone who genuinely desires to avoid humanity's cycles of political failure, which model do you turn to? The obvious answer is nonconformity, but that approach requires an engaged, compassionate, and principled class of youth. Pray tell, where are they? 

What's Up, Doc?

For as long as I can remember, I've wanted a pair of Dr. Martens workboots. Considering my total ignorance of punk rock and grunge, I don't know exactly what inspired this lifelong desire, but I suppose I know counterculture when I see it. Today, I received my first pair of Doc Martens' boots in the mail. Since I refuse, on Scottish-infused principle, to purchase any shoes costing more than 50 USD, I had to wait until I found an oddly-colored one on sale. (Tip: before buying, ensure you understand the differences between British and U.S. sizes--they're not the same.) 

The story of Dr. Martens' is an example of globalization and perfect timing. Though the boots are associated with Britain, the creator was actually a German military doctor named Klaus Märtens aka Klaus Maertens. A partnership with a friend from Luxembourg resulted in the business opening in Seeshaupt, Germany, where their comfortable boots were a hit with older women. That's right--Dr. Martens, now a counterculture fashion brand, succeeded because older women with foot problems cared more about comfort than style. From humble beginnings, eh? 

When a family-owned British boots company noticed the German design in an advertisement, it realized the comfortable soles would be perfect for blue-collar workers and purchased an exclusive license. After altering the heel and adding a yellow welt stitch and a two-tone grooved sole edge, Dr. Martens began production in the U.K. on April 1, 1960. As I said, the timing could not have been better: to be born on the cusp of a counterculture revolution means as long as you maintain quality, your brand will never die. 

A newer style. The company is trying to appeal more to a younger generation.

Sadly, Dr. Martens' lifetime guarantee no longer applies: 

From the 27th of March 2018, the For Life range will be discontinued. Dr. Martens will continue to honor all existing For Life guarantees on purchases made before the 29th of March 2018 and registered within 60 days of purchase. The For Life registration website will be deactivated on or about the 25th of May 2018.

If you bought a pair of boots before March 29, 2018 and registered it, you were the last consumers eligible for the authentic Dr. Martens experience. Being a Johnny-come-lately bloke, I'll be buying another pair in the distant future. On that date, I'll go as original as I can: the no-frills black ones, sale or no sale. 

Time to Reduce Exposure to American Stocks?

I told my U.S.-based family members to raise between 10% and 20% cash in any and all stock/investment accounts. I personally wouldn't mind if my sister and brother-in-law increased their cash/money market holdings to 30%, but they are young, and their youth makes it hard to suggest a more conservative allocation. (It doesn't help that bonds paying interest in U.S. dollars seem to be fairly valued.) My parents, who don't generally listen to me, told me they're already all in cash. 

I am still holding onto my General Electric (GE) shares, along with various REIT and other preferred shares, but I do not see much value in U.S. equities markets as of April 2, 2019. 

Shiller P/E is one useful metric to consider for overall valuation.

I suppose Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC), which I recently bought, looks cheap, but its debt load is considerable, and I don't have many shares of it. I like a few other individual U.S. stocks besides GE, but I allocated a considerable amount of my holdings to GE at an average of approximately $12.50/share, and I'll wait for a turnaround. I do hold a few international companies, but none I like enough to suggest publicly. If you're reading this post, good luck, and do your own due diligence. I am not an oracle of anywhere when it comes to investing. 

Disclaimer: The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, I do not provide investment advice, nor do I make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss, or any other result. I am not responsible for any harm arising from following anything construed as advice herein. 

Miscellany

1. S&P 500 closed on 2867 on April 2, 2019, the date of this post. 

2. GE stock is around 9.26/share mid-day April 8, 2019. 

3. KHC is around 33.22/share mid-day April 8, 2019. 

Update on November 7, 2019 

1. S&P 500 closed on 3076 on November 6, 2019. 

2. GE stock closed at 11.02 on November 6, 2019. As far as I know, I have sold all my individual shares, but my positions may change at any time. 

3. KHC closed at 33.14/share on November 6, 2019.

As of November 7, 2019, I have a conservative portfolio, but my positions may change at any time. 

Update on February 1, 2020

The recent correction has caused me to deploy some of my cash. I have bought shares of XOM, CVX, PSX, GT, MUR, and various REITs. My positions may change at any time. You are responsible for your due diligence. 

Update on April 28, 2020

Markets declined substantially in 2020 because of the COVID19 pandemic, hitting a recent low on March 23, 2020 but have since retraced most of their losses. Though indices declined between 10 and 20%, REITs and oil companies declined around 40 to 50%--and have yet to fully recover. I continue to hold banks and oil companies, which are still paying dividends. Facebook's Libra digital currency has not made much progress, indicating USA banks are still strong as long as they co-opt or harness blockchain technology. I have not had General Electric (GE) stock for a while now. As always, my positions may change at any time. You are responsible for your due diligence. 

Update on March 24, 2021

GE stock closed at 12.50/share today. I did not benefit from the full recovery because I sold most or all of my GE shares a while ago. 

KHC closed at 38.23/share today. As with GE, I did not benefit from the full recovery because I sold most or all of the shares a while ago.

The S&P 500 closed at 3892 today. 

American indices have hit all-time highs or close to all-time highs. I have raised considerable cash, but my positions may change at any time. You are responsible for your due diligence.