Movie Recommendation: Gideon's Trumpet

It's actually a made-for-television film starring Henry Fonda, but it is beautifully done and a must-see. Gideon's Trumpet has everything--great acting and a look behind the scenes of the Supreme Court and our legal system. If you're a high school teacher, please show this film to your students.

Bonus: list of the best movies you've never heard of here.

Retired California Teachers Receive Lump Sums of $500,000

Oh, those poor, poor California teachers. They only get lump sums of $500,000 when they retire. Wait, what? Oh, you didn't know that? Keep reading.

"Of the 12,568 California educators who retired in fiscal year 2007-08, the median number of years on the job was 29 years. The average CalSTRS pension was $48,180 per year, which was about 62 percent of the average highest salary." See here [Update: link no longer works.]

Assuming a 6% rate of return and 29 years of retirement, you and I would have to save up almost $17,200 every single year for 29 years straight to get the same level of retirement income as an average California teacher. Why? Because most of us would have to buy an annuity on the open market to get something similar to a pension.

To give you an idea of how expensive these pensions are, let's do the math: to get $48K a year for 17 years, we would have to generate a nest egg worth about $500,000. Basically, California taxpayers provide the average California teacher with a nest egg of $500,000 upon retirement--the market cost of paying someone about $48K a year for 17 years of retirement. (Note: Hypothetical assumes you start teaching at the age of 31 and work 29 years, which means you're 60 years old. You then retire and then expire at 77.)

Will most Californians have at least $500,000 when they retire? If not, why are they responsible for guaranteeing the average teacher an annuity worth about $500,000? Also, how many of us can afford to save $17,200 a year? Even if private sector employees maxed out their 401(k)s, they couldn't put $17,200 a year in the account [as of 2011]. And people still think teachers, on average, are underpaid. Perhaps the newer and younger ones are--but that's not the taxpayers' fault. It's the union's fault for creating and enforcing a compensation system that shoves so many available taxpayer dollars in the back-end of a teacher's career rather than in the front.

P.S. Want to do the annuity calculations yourself? Here is one version of an annuity calculator.

Bonus: It looks like I may have underestimated the value of the pension. More here. The Money Blog calculates that as of 3/2011, a $300,000 lump sum would would get you just $1300/mo in annuity payments.

Also, see Margaret Collins, July 1, 2011, “Delay Taking Social Security, Add Annuity to Survive Retirement”: “For example, a contract [annuity] purchased for $95,500 by a 66-year-old couple in Florida may provide $4,262 a year until the death of the surviving spouse and include increases for inflation."

Bonus II: from Joel Klein, The Atlantic, June 2011:

[C]onsider the financial burden that comes with providing lifetime benefits. Given the time between first putting aside the money to fund such a “long-tail exposure” and having to begin paying it, the amount “reserved” by the employer necessarily depends on a host of imprecise assumptions—about the rate of return that the money invested in the pension fund will earn, about how long employees will live, and even about how much overtime employees will work during their last few years, which is normally included in calculations of the amount of the pension. Each dollar set aside this year to cover the ultimate pension exposure must be taken from what would otherwise be current operating dollars.

Consequently, elected officials have had every incentive to make extraordinarily optimistic assumptions about the pension plan—or to simply underfund it—so they can put as little as possible into the reserve. Unfortunately, but predictably, that’s exactly what has happened: most states “assumed” they would get an average 8 percent return on their pension reserves, when in fact they were getting significantly less. Over the past 10 years, for example, New York City’s pension funds earned an average of just 2.5 percent. Now virtually every pension plan in America that covers teachers has huge unfunded liabilities. A recent study by the Manhattan Institute estimated the total current shortfall at close to $1 trillion. There’s only one way to pay for that: take the money from current and future operating budgets, robbing today’s children to pay tomorrow’s pensions.

LeBron James: Justified in Leaving Cleveland?

Bill Simmons wrote an article unrelated to LeBron James, but it includes the best defense of "The Decision" I've seen so far:

Isn't loyalty a two-way street? When a team does what's best for itself, we call it smart. When a player does the same, we call him selfish. We never think about what a double standard it is.

I'd never thought of it that way before.

Government Unions: Hoodwinking the Public, One Voter at a Time

If you're a California voter, you've been the victim of a scam perpetuated by the state's public sector unions:

[Actual] CalPERS data shows the average career public employee, who put in at least 30 years of service and retired in the 2008-09 fiscal year, collected a starting pension of $67,000 a year, or 2.5 times the advertised figure [by CalPERS]...

The pension numbers are even higher for the separate local retirement systems that cover employees of the two East Bay county governments. The average was $85,500 for career workers who retired in 2009 from the Contra Costa system, and $83,000 from Alameda County. A majority of these workers also receive Social Security, which could add, very roughly, about another $19,000 to the annual pension.

More here. 1) think California doesn't spend enough on education? 55% of California's general fund will be spent on education (43% on K-12; and 12% on higher education); and 2) think we should tax people more? Think harder. If you're a company and want to expand, are you going to expand someplace where you and your workers have access to cheaper housing, reasonable wages, and lower taxes, or someplace with higher housing costs, higher salaries, and higher taxes?

What about taxing corporations instead of individuals, you ask? From David Walker's book, Comeback America (hardcover, page 121): "we must realize that corporations don't really pay taxes. Rather, they pass along any tax, in the form of higher prices to consumers, lower wages to workers, and/or lower returns to shareholders." It turns out trickle down economics exists--at least when it comes to taxes.

Bonus I: from Calvin Massey:

In the private sector a union bargains for a greater share of the entity’s revenue and profits. What it can provide in return is greater productivity, accomplished perhaps by work force stability, higher morale, and the belief that the common fate of employer and employee will be enhanced by productivity gains. If this happy event ensues, at the next round of collective bargaining, union workers can and should receive their fair share of the resulting gains.

In the public sector, by contrast, a union is not bargaining for a greater share of the revenue produced by economic activity; it is bargaining for a greater share of revenue that is obtained by force of law – taxation – or, if not a greater share, at least for a constant share of those revenues extracted from the citizens. What a public sector union can and does provide in return is political support for the faction that chooses to increase taxes or the union’s share of existing taxes. If public sector unions deliver on their support, they will be rewarded by ever more generous payments. There is no market that acts as an external monitor of worker compensation; there is only a steady repetition of a corrosive bargain – tax the public ever more in order to maintain political power. That is inimical to responsible government.

It appears Calvin Massey is a law professor at UC Hastings. Bravo!

Bonus II: Christopher Caldwell, FT, 2/25/11:

Public-sector unions have long posed a problem of what the economist Mancur Olson called the “logic of collective action”. Democracy tends to offer benefits to small, well-organised groups (who defend them vigilantly) while spreading the costs among the broader public (in doses that are too small to rally resistance around). The result is a hardening of privilege. What is new in Wisconsin is that those who do not belong to public-employee unions see this logic as clearly as those who do.

Ralph Waldo Emerson on Despotism

Ralph Waldo Emerson, from his 1844 lecture, "The Young American":

Fathers wish to be the fathers of the minds of their children, and behold with impatience a new character and way of thinking presuming to show itself in their own son or daughter. This feeling, which all their love and pride in the powers of their children cannot subdue, becomes petulance and tyranny when the head of the clan, the emperor of an empire, deals with the same difference of opinion in his subjects. Difference of opinion is the one crime which kings never forgive. An empire is an immense egotism. "I am the State," said the French Louis. When a French ambassador mentioned to Paul of Russia, that a man of consequence in St. Petersburg was interesting himself in some matter, the Czar interrupted him, -- "There is no man of consequence in this empire, but he with whom I am actually speaking; and so long only as I am speaking to him, is he of any consequence." And Nicholas, the present emperor, is reported to have said to his council, "The age is embarrassed with new opinions; rely on me, gentlemen, I shall oppose an iron will to the progress of liberal opinions."

The last line is hilarious, isn't it?

Got Enemies?

He has no enemy, you say;
My friend, your boast is poor,
He who hath mingled in the fray
Of duty that the brave endure
Must have made foes. If he has none
Small is the work that he has done.
He has hit no traitor on the hip;
Has cast no cup from perjured lip;
Has never turned the wrong to right;
Has been a coward in the fight.

- Alexander Anton von Auersperg

Unintended Consquences: Meredith Menden on Teacher Pay

Meredith Menden wrote a sarcastic Facebook note titled, "Are you sick of highly paid teachers?" proposing to pay teachers directly like babysitters, i.e., $19.50 a day. $19.50 x 30 kids x 180 days a year = $105,300 a year. Let's take Ms. Menden's idea further and actually consider paying teachers directly. First, we have to figure out how much each of us are paying teachers now.

In 2009, Californians filed about 12.8 million tax returns. (http://www.ftb.ca.gov/aboutFTB/Tax_Statistics/2009_Filing_Season_Statistics.shtml)

California's annual budget is about $89 billion. The annual budget number is different from the amount available in the general fund. The general fund is basically the state's operating budget and includes money that covers the day-to-day activities of various state programs. The state's annual budget number includes expenses outside the general day-to-day activities of various state agencies and is therefore higher than the amount available for its general fund.

About 40% to 50% of the general fund usually goes to K-12 education. For 2011-2012, when including college funding, about 55% of the general fund will be spent on all education (DOF link here), with about 42.8% spent on K-12 education (see Governor's eBudget summary).

In 2011-2012, Jerry Brown is proposing that we spend $37.7 billion on K-12 education: http://www.ebudget.ca.gov/StateAgencyBudgets/6010/agency.html

So California plans on spending about $38 billion on K-12 education in 2011-2012--and that only includes the amount received from the state. (K-12 schools receive more funding from other sources, but we'll ignore those sources for now.) Each state tax filer is paying about 3K a year on K-12 education. Instead of giving that money to the government each year, why not return it to each taxpayer and add another 1K, even to people who do NOT generally file tax returns (i.e., poor people)?

Under this system, a poor parent would get an additional 4K a year to spend on his or her child's education. A married couple with two children would have 4K to spend on each child's tuition. A married couple with only one child could receive up to 8K. If parents don't spend the full amount on schooling costs, they would be required to spend any excess money in the county where they live. All recipients with K-12 children must spend at least 2K of their 4K on K-12 tuition. Payments and purchases would be tracked using something similar to our current EBT card system.

Adults who have no desire to attend school or who have no children would receive 2K in tax credits but must spend the money within their county of residence. Depending on the state's finances, this proposal could be extended to college students to help them pay for tuition. (Instead of increasing college tuition costs as we're doing now, we might be able to help college students reduce higher education costs).

Taxpayers who earn more than 125K a year in adjusted gross income would not be eligible for the 2K tax credit or 4K tuition credit. Once again, any tax credit not used on tuition or reducing a person's tax liability will be loaded on a card that must be spent on a business physically located in the taxpayer's county of residence.

More ideas: teachers would be hired based on one year contracts. A month before the end of the school year, a majority vote of the parents by secret ballot could remove the teacher. Requiring that all recipients with school-age children must spend at least 2K of their 4K on K-12 tuition gives teachers a *minimum* salary of 60K a year (assuming 30 kids--2 x 30). Parents who have only one child would have to pay 4K a year (2K each is required to be used for school), which would increase the teacher's salary beyond 60K in many cases. The money would go into a common pool and be divided among the different teachers in science, math, English, etc. In exchange for higher pay, teachers would be responsible for their own health care and retirement, just like many people in the private sector. With so many more people buying individual health and dental care plans, the overall cost of individual insurance plans would fall, creating an indirect benefit for poor people, the uninsured, and the self-employed.

If parents want to spend more on teachers, they can give them up to 120K (4 x 30) or more. If you're concerned about poor people in California, many poor people live in the Central Valley and way up north. 60K a year--the minimum salary--is good money in places like Fresno, Bakersfield, outskirts of Sacramento, etc. Of course, millions of poor people live outside of the Central Valley and in more expensive places like L.A., San Jose, etc. Most likely, these parents would have to spend their entire 4K voucher on a local school (if we assume more affluent neighborhoods will vote in higher salaries for teachers). However, poor parents will still have more choices and more of a voice in their children's education because teachers would have to cater directly to them to get their votes at the end of the year. In any case, under this proposal, all poor adults, even those without children, would receive 2K more every single year.

One issue is factoring in the increase in expected tax returns. Obviously, there will be more than 13 million people filing taxes if they know they will get between 2K to 4K. Also, we would have to create a new agency to investigate fraud/kickbacks, supervise the annual secret ballot vote, verify residency, prosecute parents who don't send their kids to school, etc. But if existing funding sources are inadequate, let's assume we could implement at least two measures to cover any expected shortfall: one, raise sales taxes (that's what we're doing now when we have a shortfall); and two, force all government employees making over 100K to take a 15% pay cut down to a minimum of 100K. We may not have to implement either of those measures if we handle additional sources of funding wisely. Lest we forget, we haven't even included federal money and local property taxes, which are around 11% and 21% of K-12 school funding (See here). Those are tens of billions of dollars of existing funding we have not yet discussed or included in our calculations.

Another note: we would have to cut P.E., which means we would teach five subjects instead of six subjects (e.g., English, math, science, social studies, and one elective, e.g., a foreign language, logic, music, etc.). The ambitious high school students could enroll at the local community college if they wanted more classes.

There are some important factors I haven't considered (e.g., what if parents have more than two kids? how do we best count the votes of divorced and/or single parents?), but we can see that existing funding is enough to improve the education system and also assist low-income parents. Whatever we're doing now is not assisting the children of low-income parents, so we ought to be open to all ideas. Why not consider a plan that would help increase accountability, pay teachers more, and help poor people? Most studies show that academic success tends to be influenced most by levels of parental income, parental education, and parental involvement. The proposed idea addresses all three aforementioned factors.

Update:

1) Complaint: not all poor people live in the Central Valley, and private schools are expensive.

Response: the poor people in the larger cities would probably have to use the full amount of their 4K vouchers to attend public schools, but they would still have more choices. Remember that under our current system, poor people must currently enroll their children in a pre-determined school, regardless of whether it is failing or dangerous. Giving parents a voucher for 4K allows them to consider charter schools and to demand more accountability.

Some people have said that private schools cost more than 4K a year. Well, some do, and some don't. Right now, we don't have much competition in schooling, and rich people are the ones with options. However, once we establish a voucher system, it is likely that new charter and new private schools that cost between 2K and 4K annually would crop up and be available to everyone, not just rich people.

And remember: we're not eliminating public schools or forcing anyone to attend a charter school. All we're doing is demonstrating that we can double teacher pay using existing resources (and still have plenty of money left over). All public schools would be required to enroll students with 4K vouchers. The true debate centers around the process the parents would use to determine whether they would have to use 2K or the full 4K amount of their vouchers, i.e., is it a majority vote of the class, school, county, etc.?

2) Complaint: healthcare coverage would be difficult on the private market, because you are switching tens of thousands of teachers from group coverage to individual coverage.

Isn't it true that under Obamacare, insurers must cover all individuals regardless of pre-existing conditions? In any case, the health insurance issue is a separate topic that can be addressed via state or federal legislation.

3) Complaint: the proposed idea eliminates administrators and other non-teaching staff.

The proposed idea eliminates administrators and other non-teaching staff so we can pay most teachers more money. We can modify the plan to add more money for basic maintenance costs, which are not a large portion of California's existing education budget. About 80 to 85% of California's K-12 budget currently goes directly in the pockets of school employees. (http://www.ed-data.k12.ca.us/articles/article.asp?title=teachers+in+california) If we can resolve the school employee funding issue, which is about 85% of the battle, we can easily deal with the remaining 15%.

To the extent we cannot replace the remaining funding needs by increasing sales taxes or decreasing the salaries of high earning government employees, remember that we have not included additional sources of funding. Only 61% of K-12 school funding comes from the state. As discussed above, the federal government provides an additional 11% and local property taxes provide another 21%. (See here.) In short, our calculations above have not included tens of billions of dollars of existing funding. Even without including the additional sources of funding, we have devised a system that could potentially double the average teacher salary in California.

4) Complaint: poor kids sometimes receive their only meal of the day at school. What about cafeteria staff?

An additional 2K a year gives parents over eleven dollars a day to replace any missed school lunches (assuming 180 school days). In schools that require the full 4K voucher, we can require the schools to feed children at least once a day. See response to number 3 above. Again, we have not considered other sources of funding from the state, local property taxes, lotto sales, etc.

5) Complaint: what about the existing pension and medical benefit obligations we owe to retired teachers?

The proposed plan eliminates unpredictable, unsustainable liabilities for incoming teachers in exchange for higher pay. Basically, teachers get paid more and taxpayers get more budget flexibility and predictability.

What about existing and retired teachers? The studies I've seen indicate that existing plans to cover such liabilities are underfunded by around $30 to $50 billion. We can apportion a set amount each year from federal or local property taxes to cover existing liabilities owed to retired teachers. If we spread out the funding over thirty years, we should be able to cover existing liabilities. We could also change the way benefits are calculated for existing teachers, such as increasing their contributions to pension and medical plans.

6) Complaint: what about making sure that all students, nationwide, are learning the same basic skills?

Remember: we haven't touched sources of federal money in the above calculations. The federal government usually provides about 11% of education funding in California.

In exchange for accepting federal money, the federal government can require schools to fail students who do not pass a basic competency test at the end of the year. Results would be released before parents vote on whether to retain their child's teacher. Under this method, parents would have a nationwide standard to measure both student and teacher performance while also giving teachers more flexibility in how to teach.

Bonus: Did you know the average California teacher receives the equivalent--at least as of 2011--of about $500,000 when s/he retires? Never heard that before, huh? Funny how the teachers' unions don't mention that. More here.