Magma to Cadence: Bring it On

I attended Magma Design Automation’s (LAVA) annual meeting on September 23, 2010. Over the past year, Magma stock has handily beaten the S&P 500. Since September 28, 2009, the S&P has struggled to break even while Magma's stock has increased around 70%.

Chairman and CEO Rajeev Madhavan handled the formal portion of the meeting, which was uneventful. After the meeting, he generously agreed to allow me to ask him questions one-on-one.

Mr. Madhavan’s energy is palpable. You can almost feel his lava-hot desire to succeed when you hear him speak and move. One gets a sense that Mr. Madhavan is bustling with ideas and can't wait to share them with you.

I expressed my concern that Magma’s general business was becoming commoditized, which usually causes margins to decline. However, Mr. Madhavan told me that Magma had “substantial leadership in the analog area” with several unique, brand-new tools. He said he was “extremely confident” about the new tools. He also indicated Magma’s biggest challenges were internal, i.e., to ensure execution without incurring more expenses.

When I pointed out that Magma was a smaller player in a market dominated by Cadence (CDNS) and Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS), Mr. Madhavan compared Magma to Google's Android, contending that if size mattered, Microsoft should have been able to outcompete Android--which has not proven to be the case. He also said that “Cadence is weakest in [its] technology” and doesn’t offer the “best of anything [in its market].” To put Cadence’s technological issues in context, Mr. Madhavan said that some of Cadence’s products were “three to four times slower” than anyone else’s. When I expressed surprise, Mr. Madhavan’s eyes lit up. He immediately issued a bold challenge to Cadence, saying,“You name it, I’ll take them on anyplace...every couple of weeks or so, we’re winning evaluations against Cadence, and we’re seven to fifteen times faster” in SPICE and several times faster in digital now.

What about Synopsys, I asked? Mr. Madhavan’s tone softened. He said Synopsys is “strongest in terms of numbers” and its balance sheet, and Magma “must continue to differentiate” its own products to compete with Synopsys’ products. [According to Magma, "In SPICE Magma has a tremendous differentiation and we expect to increase our digital differentiation with our upcoming product launches.”]

My impression was that Cadence was expanding in China, so I asked Mr. Madhavan about Magma’s Chinese footprint. Mr. Madhavan confirmed his company also had “sales and marketing in China” but indicated that the industry has yet to do as much business there as in the U.S.

I asked Mr. Madhavan about his biggest challenges going forward. He said that his primary goal was getting “engineers to try” Magma’s products. Once engineers try Magma products, they tend to view Magma as an attractive partner. But Mr. Madhavan admitted that existing business practices--specifically all-you-can-eat deals from other EDA suppliers--encouraged inertia. [Note: EDA is electronic design automation aka electronic computer-aided design.] Because the consequences of missing a deadline can be so severe, most engineers prefer to stay with the more established names rather than switch, even if Magma’s products are better and faster.

Regarding my contention that EDA was becoming more commoditized, Mr. Madhavan expressed disagreement: “The very fact that [other companies] think that their products are commodities is the anti-thesis of Magma...we strive to differentiate--that’s our culture.”

How about it, Cadence? Will you take on Magma in a head-to-head contest? Mr. Madhavan is waiting for you.

Bonus: a review of Magma’s 2009 shareholder meeting is here.

Disclosure: I own a small number of Magma (LAVA) shares. My holdings may change anytime. Also, a Magma employee had the opportunity to review this article and submitted some comments to me. I included some of his comments, including the references to SPICE.

Movie Recommendation: Battle of Algiers (1966)

I've just seen one of the best movies ever made: The Battle of Algiers (1966). It's about colonization, terrorism, and independence. It is stunning to see the potential parallels between America's campaign in Iraq and the French's campaign in Algiers.

Think Corporations Don't Pay Enough Taxes? Joke's on You.

Of course we have to pay taxes. The question is, "What kind of taxes should we impose for maximum efficacy?"

From David Walker's book, Comeback America (hardcover, page 121): "we must realize that corporations don't really pay taxes. Rather, they pass along any tax, in the form of higher prices to consumers, lower wages to workers, and/or lower returns to shareholders."

(And last time I checked, CalPERS and many middle-class Bay Area families were shareholders.)

Random Thoughts

1. If the South had a way to make money without needing to enslave Africans, would we have had a Civil War?

2. The surest path to tyranny is hyperinflation.

3. Public sector compensation and private sector compensation are completely different. Unlike the private sector, public sector compensation usually includes unpredictable long-term structural debt, such as pensions and medical costs. The costs of pensions and medical treatment depend on a person's age and health. If it was so easy to analyze costs relating to a person's age and health, we could all run insurance companies. Moreover, when governments make long term compensation promises, they are using taxpayer money (OPM) and have little incentive to get the numbers right. More here, from a letter to The Atlantic (Nov 2010):

In the final analysis, it doesn’t matter whether you work for GM or N.Y. or U.S.A.; it doesn’t matter if you are in a defined-benefit or defined-contribution plan--your retirement is dependent upon the earnings and productivity of your grandchildren and their friends. All of the pieces of paper in these plans are just proxies: claims on a portion of the labor of future generations. All of these retirement schemes seemed affordable when they were new. We didn’t see why they were inexpensive: because they were built on leverage. They depended upon borrowing against the future growth of the three unsustainable pyramids: economic, population, and credit. None of those can continue forever, and as one fades, the others must take up the slack. But once all three pyramids are played out, the plans face a few stark choices: substantially raise contributions, substantially lower payouts, or go bankrupt.

Steven Flint Manasquan, N.J.

4. People's voting preferences are probably based in large part on whether they have children. Most parents probably favor the status quo. Why? The more society changes, the less knowledge they can pass along to their kids. The parents' economic skills may also decline in value if society changes too much. In contrast, people without kids have more time to adapt to changes and also have a higher incentive to change society to suit their own needs and wants. In conclusion, I bet parents tend to be more "conservative" while childless adults tend to be more "liberal."

5. The S&P 500 is about 1180. The Dow is about 11,142. Perhaps the market is a bit frothy. Markets may be anticipating an extension of the Bush-era tax cuts, which means an assumption of a more politically balanced federal government. But elections can be unpredictable...

Questions re: Charter Schools

1. If charter schools don't have the burden of paying billions of their dollars to retired/non-working school personnel, can't they use more of their dollars to pay newer teachers more and to limit class sizes?

2. If charter schools must compete for students and overcome parental inertia (i.e., most parents will move their kids along in the same school system unless they have a good reason to change), don't charter schools have a greater incentive to provide better services and to be more transparent?

3. Do you believe competition usually leads to better service and products?

4. Do you believe that monopolies usually lead to good service, superior efforts, and superior results for consumers? If not, do you realize that by opposing charter schools, you are supporting the status quo, which is a monopolistic public education system?

5. Most people agree that parental involvement, the level of parental education, and good parenting skills are the primary factors in determining a child's academic success. How does paying teachers more or opposing charter schools solve the problem of uninvolved parents, uneducated parents, or a lack of parenting?

Random thoughts of the day:

1. Competition lowers prices for consumers; monopolies, on the other hand, usually allow entities, whether government or corporate, to increase prices. Right now, public schools have a virtual monopoly on education because most students must attend a school based on where they live rather than other standards, such as test scores, better facilities, better teachers, etc. The more schools must compete for government money (which is related to the number of students attending a school), the more all schools are incentivized to improve services.

2. Re: why privatization will decrease education costs. Again, when you break a monopoly, costs usually go down. Some people appear to be assuming that charter schools will incur the same expenses as public schools, and therefore it will all be a wash. This is incorrect. We know California's public schools are inefficient. They use about 85% of their funding to pay employees and contractors, which means they spend only about 15% of their money on children.

For example, in some California public schools, a gardener, after just 5 years of work, is eligible for a pension of around $1,000/month. It is unclear how paying a gardener a pension after five years of work helps children, but let's set that issue aside. If a charter school hires a gardener but without the burden of a pension, it has more options. It can increase a teacher's salary by $1,000/month, buy laptops for students, or add courses. To make a long story short, the opportunities to game our current education system are enormous. Charter schools, if run properly, can set up systems that are harder to game and that lack long-term structural deficits such as pensions.

Over time, as more students attend charter schools, the state may eventually be able to force teacher unions and public schools to eliminate their own long term structural deficits and to adopt student-centric teaching and evaluation methods. In time, we may even be able to amend the state Constitution to divert education-earmarked money to services that benefit all state residents. Even if we fail to divert money to non-education services, competition alone and the battle for students/state money will improve education for all students, which is the ultimate goal.

Are State Pensions Sustainable?

"There seems to be a high likelihood that future generations will have to bear the substantial burden of making up pension benefits for previous generations of state employees. While citizens of states that are particularly hard-hit by the pension crisis may be able to escape to other states, an acceleration of this demographic phenomenon would leave a dwindling taxpayer base behind in the states facing the largest liabilities. This would increase the likelihood of a federal taxpayer bailout in which taxpayers in all states would bear the burden of the states in default. The problem of state and local pension liabilities is therefore a problem for all U.S. taxpayers, not just those in the states with the largest deficits." -- Joshua Rauh

More here. Scroll all the way to the bottom to see your state's ranking. The lower your state's ranking, the better.

It's not pretty if you live in Illinois, Connecticut, Indiana, or New Jersey.

It's much better if you live in North Carolina, New York, or Nevada.

How to Help Poor People

The best thing anyone can do is make a poor person self-sufficient and/or independent.

Welfare and charity do not make a poor person self-sufficient because they regard the poor person as a passive recipient of benefits rather than someone with under-utilized skills.

A job allows a person to become self-sufficient.

To give someone a job, corporations and small businesses must grow and make higher profits so they can afford to expand.

For businesses to grow and make higher profits, they must sell more products.

Therefore, the goals of any fiscal policy ought to be 1) increase public demand for products by ensuring a fluid money supply; and 2) maintain the purchasing power of the currency.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy seeks to promote "maximum" sustainable output and employment and to promote "stable" prices. More here.