Friday, February 26, 2010

Apple Shareholder Meeting (2010)

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) held its annual shareholder meeting in Cupertino, California on February 25, 2010. Apple offered shareholders only coffee, tea, and water. Steve Jobs attended the meeting in his trademark jeans (with holes in the right knee area) and black turtleneck. Although he looked noticeably thinner than two years ago, he appeared healthy. Al Gore also attended the meeting, and he looked like he was in great shape (unlike previous years, where he appeared to be a tad overweight--perhaps recent Democratic victories have improved his health).

Much of the meeting focused on environmental issues. One person argued that if the science is right, then nothing else matters, and Apple needed to be more environmentally-conscious. Another shareholder summed up the issue by saying, "Pollution is waste, waste is inefficiency--it's as simple as that."

During the Q&A session, a shareholder mentioned Apple's $40 billion in cash, and asked whether Apple would issue a dividend. Mr. Jobs said that the cash provided security and flexibility, and Apple could take risks knowing that "the ground is always there if we miss." Mr. Jobs also implied that the stock price would stagnate if Apple issued a dividend.

Someone else mentioned that Nintendo was doing very well with its Wii and asked if Apple would consider a strategic alliance with Nintendo. Mr. Jobs said that such alliances take a lot of work, and Apple would need a big payoff to consider a strategic alliance.

I was tired of the environment-related questions. I explained that business-wise, it doesn't matter whether the science is right or wrong, only whether a majority of the American public believes that environmental issues are important. If the majority of Americans feel strongly about environmental issues, they will petition Congress or state legislatures to pass more stringent laws mandating certain corporate behavior. However, if Apple at least projects an image of being socially conscious, it will help stave off stringent legislation that might harm the company. In short, being ahead of the curve on environmental issues allows Apple to increase its chances of saving shareholders from potentially harmful and costly legislation. (It also makes little sense to criticize Al Gore whenever the Democrats control Congress, because Mr. Gore's presumed access to Democratic legislators allows him to provide input into legislation affecting Apple.)

Mr. Jobs responded by saying that it was even more simple--being environmentally-conscious "is the right thing to do." He then made several comments showing that Apple sincerely believed in environmental issues not just as a business issue, but as a philosophical issue.

I also asked what challenges Mr. Jobs saw for Apple, i.e., what keeps you up at night? Mr. Jobs first joked, "Shareholder meetings," but then became more serious. He said he was concerned about the overall economy, because if people were concerned about buying textbooks or putting their kids through school, then it would be more difficult for Apple to sell its products.

Overall, the meeting went well. Mr. Jobs was more pro-active in cutting off shareholders who would ramble on, but otherwise, it was a typical Apple meeting--people came to see Mr. Jobs and to get a piece of the Apple mystique.

Bonus: Mark Duncan has been a marketing consultant at askmar (www.askmar.com) for over 25 years, focusing on helping early stage start-ups develop traction in their marketplace. Mr. Duncan's thorough notes on the shareholder meeting are below:

* The meeting started at 10 AM, the formal meeting ending at 9:25 AM. At that point, Steve Jobs took questions and answers to about 10:20 AM.

* Apple wants to do the right thing. We have reduced the size of our packaging because it benefits us both from an environmental and business standpoint. People are noticing, our reputation is pretty good. Can it be better? Yes, but we’re working on it. Our recycling rates are phenomenal.

* What is Apple afraid about most, what keeps you up at night? Fundamentally, we require stability in the world. People aren’t going to buy our products unless they can put food on the table and afford school. We are affected by things beyond our control. Accordingly, we try to do the best we can.

* Why not issue a stock dividend? It is part security and flexibility. It nice to know when you jump that the ground will still be there if we miss. Also, we never know what opportunities are out there. Sometimes you need to think big and pretty large. When you want to do something big and bold, it is nice to be able to write out a check and not have to borrow a lot of money. Our judgment and instinct is to keep out powder dry. Quite frankly, if we issued dividends or did a stock buyback, our stock price would still be in the same place. What really drives our stock price is our ability to grow and keep up with new products that everyone wants.

* Internationally, we opened our first store in China, and have 25 more stores planned for China over the next year.

* [On environmental issues.] We are more interested in walking the talk, than talking the talk. Lots of companies set goals and attend conferences, than don’t actually meet their goals. We are the first and only company to actually do something about it. Dell challenged us on our green statements to the Truth in Advertising board, which found that we were correct [in our claims]. We have audited 100 of our suppliers, and over half of them told us that they had never been audited before. We do it because it is the right thing to do.

* With respect to usability and accessibility. We have the most accessible products in production available today, with a few hundred million passionate users. I personally receive 6 to 12 emails each week about accessibility.

* When I run across a security problem, it would be nice to have a way to email Apple regarding the threat. We will look at providing an email for this purpose.

* Will the increased emphasis on mobile products result in a decrease in traditional Mac products? First, we have decreased our app approval time from 2 to 3 weeks to one week. Our customers are buying mostly laptops, followed by iMacs, Mac Minis, and towers. We listen to our customers. We love the iMac, we think it is the best product of its type in the world.

* Apple has no retail stores in Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota. Would like to see more theaters in stores. It is hard to do this [take Apple classes?] in smaller stores, particularly with the higher noise levels.

* Apple ads are primarily targeted at the young and hip. Yet the products have a tremendous appeal to middle aged and older people. Jobs noted that often older people like to think of themselves as young and hip!

Update: other reviews of the meeting are HERE and HERE.

John Yoo, D-Bag

For anyone out there who still supports or likes John Yoo, please, please, for the love of God and Constitution, read THIS short Atlantic article. One excerpt:

Based on the results of our investigation, we concluded that former Deputy AAG John Yoo committed intentional professional misconduct when he violated his duty to exercise independent legal judgment and render thorough, objective, and candid legal advice. [Italics added]

And you're welcome, even if I can't expect a "thank you."

Thursday, February 25, 2010

EIA on Natural Gas

Natural gas seems to be hitting new lows these days. Yet, the government expects the price of natural gas to increase in 2010: 

EIA expects this year's annual average natural gas Henry Hub spot price to be $5.37 per million Btu (MMBtu), a $1.42-per-MMBtu increase over the 2009 average of $3.95. EIA projects continuing price increases in 2011, averaging $5.86 per MMBtu for the year. EIA expects working gas inventories to end the first quarter at about 1,644 billion cubic feet (Bcf) compared with 1,734 Bcf in the previous Outlook, because of colder-than-normal weather in early January. [Citation here.] 

UNG and GAZ allow traders to play natural gas prices. There are several negative potential tax issues with buying GAZ or UNG, so I trade these in a retirement account to be on the safe side. 

Also, it's true that natural gas ETFs/ETNs may not necessarily track the actual price of natural gas, but they do seem to follow the general movement of prices. If the government is saying prices are heading up, why not consider natural gas as an investment, albeit an admittedly speculative one? 

I don't know if I will hold my GAZ shares one day or one year, but I don't feel as if I am buying an overvalued commodity. As more consolidation occurs in the natural gas sector (XTO Energy, etc.), at some point, prices are likely to increase. While consolidation may not be good news for consumers, speculators may benefit from short-term volatility. 

Disclosure: I own GAZ and have owned UNG in my Roth IRA. 

Note: GAZ closed at 12.03 on February 25, 2010, the date of this posting. 

Update on March 1, 2010: MF Global’s Mike Fitzpatrick's says, "Technically, the charts are bearish." According to THIS article, he "expects $4 natural gas to be tested very soon." As of today, natural gas traded at around 4.680, so Mr. Fitzpatrick expects a 17% drop. 

Update on March 8, 2010: I averaged down by buying some GAZ at around 11.23. I am now losing around 5% on this position. The actual price of gas is $4.517/MMBtu. I hope I have the mental fortitude not to check this position until October 2010, when natural gas prices may rise much higher. 

Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, I do not provide investment advice, nor do I make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss, or any other result.

Update on June 2020: I haven't owned GAZ, USO, or UNG for many years. It looks like GAZ actually traded lower by October 2010. I did not learn about "contango" until after I published this post, though I did warn that GAZ "may not necessarily track the actual price of natural gas." I also wrote that GAZ was "an admittedly speculative" investment. A much better post on natural gas can be found here: https://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2009/07/commodities-cap-and-trade-and-natural.html 

Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, I do not provide investment advice, nor do I make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss, or any other result.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

U.S. Supreme Court to Decide Important Free Speech Case

Click HERE for a transcript from the Supreme Court's oral arguments in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project. [Click on "Full Screen" after the jump to enlarge the text.] 

The Humanitarian case might determine the breadth and scope of power the American government may exercise when it wants to control speech. Amazingly, the case and its complex issues aren't front page news everywhere. Below are some off-the-cuff comments I made after I read the transcript: 

The pro-free-speech lawyer, Cole, didn't do a great job. There was some drama: Scalia verbally smacked Sotomayor when she raised a misguided example, but Breyer played the good knight and saved her. Justice "That's Not True" Alito looked out of his range intellectually. None of the lawyers were able to really answer Ginsburg's very relevant questions. Breyer, as usual, asked the most interesting and intelligent questions. Scalia clearly wants to kick the ball down the road and uphold the statute. Unfortunately, it appears Kennedy, the swing vote, might be leaning towards Scalia's angle due to the unusual fact pattern involved, i.e., the government did not actually convict anyone for exercise of free speech (the case involves an action for declaratory relief, not an actual prosecution or conviction). Surprisingly, Roberts looked like he hadn't yet made up his mind, though towards the end, he seemed to be leaning towards Constitutional avoidance. Unsurprisingly, Thomas never asked a question. 

Actually, come to think of it, neither lawyer did well. The government's lawyer, Kagan, started off very well, but self-destructed at the end, when she suggested the government could prosecute lawyers who submit briefs on behalf of Congressionally-labeled terrorist organizations, even if the briefs relate to tsunami relief or U.N. aid requests. She should have thought harder about her audience. She's talking to a bunch of former lawyers who used to write briefs and in-house advisory opinions for sometimes-not-so-wonderful organizations. Maybe that's why former corporate attorney Roberts seems conflicted. 

After I emailed the transcript to an acquaintance, I sent him more detailed comments: 

The fact that the Justices spent most of their time discussing hypotheticals indicates that no one really knows what kind of conduct is prohibited. If the Justices can't figure out what is covered, then how is an ordinary American supposed to comply with the law? As for Scalia trying to kick the ball down the road, isn't the whole point of a request for declaratory relief precisely to avoid kicking the ball down the road and having to deal with a prosecution? 

What really bothers me is that no one answered Justice Ginsburg's perfectly valid questions. For example, everyone agrees that membership isn't proscribed, but then what? Are we supposed to just show up to a meeting and sit there to ensure we comply with the statute? Kagan seems to say anything beyond being an inactive paper member of an organization could be proscribed conduct, and it's up to the prosecutors to determine the scope of the law. Sorry, but I'd rather have a clear line than a line drawn by the Supreme Court than thousands of politically ambitious D.A.s deciding what constitutes inactive, legal membership in their own discrete jurisdictions. 

Also, I am a member of numerous legal organizations. I've attended annual meetings, communicated with board members, dispensed legal advice to schools they operate, posted on their blogs, etc. For all I know, one of these organizations might have rogue members plotting against the government. If the Court doesn't narrow the law and require a specific intent provision, then I could potentially be prosecuted merely by being an active member of the overall group, despite lacking any malicious intent. Thus, Kagan's argument boils down to this: trust the government, because we won't prosecute someone who isn't really a terrorist. I'm sorry, but if you're a Muslim in 2010, a Japanese-American in 1942, an African-American with Black Panther friends in 1965, etc, it's a little harder to trust prosecutorial discretion. 

Practically speaking, if the conservative Justices have their way, any lawyer with Muslim clients or Islamic non-profit clients must consider dropping all of them as clients. After all, who knows? If one person within an organization is supporting terrorism, then the entire organization becomes suspect, and anyone who has helped the organization, even in good faith, can be held liable for material support. Just my two cents.

Monks and Nuns in Love

Last Sunday's NYT published a beautiful love story. See HERE for more.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

To all the American Newborns: You Owe a Trillion Dollars, Thanks to Mommy and Daddy

Mish has done an excellent analysis on the trillion dollar public sector benefit problem. See HERE for more. It's horrifying and edifying at the same time. Sigh.

Monday, February 22, 2010

First Date Ritual

Do any of you have pre-first-date rituals? I have a few things I do before a first date.

I have an older American car (from 2003), and it's not worth much, so I try to spend as little as possible on it. On date night, however, I like to get the car washed and inflate the tires.

Usually, I go straight from work to the date, so in the morning, I spend an extra half hour fussing about my appearance. For example, I use a straight razor instead of my usual electric one, and I cut the hair on my nape.

As for my clothes, I usually stick with a business casual outfit, which tends to be a nice white collared shirt and a pair of new jeans. I wear my faded Wrangler jeans all the time, so I use another pair of jeans, which I rarely wear, on dates.

I have Drakkar Noir cologne and toothpaste/mouthwash in the office, so I use those before I go. (I bought the Drakkar Noir cologne because of a Dale Earnhardt, Jr. car promotion.)

I should probably add hair gel, but I don't use hair gel enough to justify buying any. For some reason, most of the hair gels I see come in large tubes that would take me years to finish.

Sometimes, I forget to wear a belt, but I fix that issue if there is a second date. Unfortunately, I have to wake up earlier than usual to do all the administrative stuff, and changing my sleeping patterns leaves me in a tired mood. I make up for it by taking a small nap in the afternoon.

I fully realize I sound like a bad Southern caricature--Wrangler jeans, Earnhardt car collection, no hair gel, no belt, old American car, etc. I tend to just come in casually, even when I implicitly realize the dating game requires some song and dance. At the same time, my casual approach should weed out the materialistic, shallow women, so I'd like to think it all balances out. Besides, my white collared shirt is from Nordstrom or another higher-end retail store, so at least there's one hoity-toity part to my first date ritual.

I have no idea if my first date ritual works, but I'm in no rush. I hear good things come to those who wait.