Saturday, January 9, 2010

eBay's Annual Shareholder Meeting (2009)



Another oldie but goodie from 2009. eBay finally moved its meeting to San Jose, California after years of holding meetings out of state. Meeting Mr. Omidyar was one of the highlights of 2009 for me.

Note: for all the anti-Iranians out there, you should look up the ethnicity of eBay's founder.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Swine Flu Vaccine

Random: I recently got the H1N1 vaccine, and one temporary side effect for me was cotton/dry mouth. Weird. (HERE is a blog post on vaccines.)

Strategic Defaults: Happens All the Time in Corp America

Lowenstein delivers a great piece on strategic defaults HERE.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Wartime Safe Harbor: Oil Stocks?

Few people like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but it's important to criticize him based on objective data and correctly translated statements. His statement about calling the Holocaust a "lie" has received massive airplay in the Western media. However, if readers review Al-Jazeera's translation of Ahmadinejad’s statements, it does not appear he was calling the Holocaust a lie--he was calling it a false pretext. There is a world of difference between “false pretext” and a “lie.” Of course, without a link to an actual speech, I am speculating, just like all non-native Farsi speakers are speculating when they repeat the hearsay that Ahmadinejad denied the Holocaust.

In any case, if Mahmoud wanted to deny the Holocaust, Katie Couric gave him the perfect opportunity to do so in a 2009 interview–and he didn’t take the bait. If Mahmoud really doesn’t believe in the Holocaust, why didn't he just come out and say so during the interview?

If you are buying oil stocks (COP, XOM, etc.) and oil ETFs (USO, USL, etc.) because you believe Ahmadinejad's statements about the Holocaust support a military action, you may want to consider the following argument:

1. Most Americans aren't native Farsi speakers.

2. Because most Americans aren't native Farsi speakers, they rely on other people to interpret Mahmoud's statements.

3. Most Americans rely on major Western media outlets to interpret and translate Mahmoud's statements.

4. Most major Western media outlets are profit-driven and tend to emphasize hyperbole to attract the most "eyeballs."

5. If two interpretations exist, major Western media outlets will probably emphasize the more exaggerated interpretation to attract the most "eyeballs."

6. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad either said that the Holocaust is a "lie" or a "false pretext."

7. A "lie" and a "false pretext" are not the same things. For example, an employee may allege that his company's stated reason for termination--being late to work--is a false pretext to cover up its real reason. Calling the employee's lateness a "false pretext" does not mean the employee wasn't late--just that being late isn't the real reason for his termination. It's different than saying that the company is lying or the termination itself is a lie.

8. If Ahmadinejad said the Holocaust was a false pretext for x, y, or z, it does not necessarily mean that he denied the Holocaust.

I will point out that Iran has existed for approximately 3,000 years and has not invaded another country in several centuries. As a result, I'm not losing any sleep over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or any of his idiotic statements. I'm more concerned that Congress and the Western media are exaggerating a so-called "Iranian threat" based on inflammatory interpretations and little hard evidence of a direct threat to Americans. The last time we allowed the media and our government to hype up a so-called threat, we lost 5,000+ American soldiers and our prestige.

Also, Iran has a history of giving safe harbor to Jews (read up on Esther, for example), so there is no ingrained history of tension between Jews and Iranians. Like Glenn Greenwald, I prefer to look at actions more than rhetoric when it comes to judging threats or making judgments. Will cooler heads prevail in 2010? Only time will tell, but if the Iranian response to Neda's killing is any indication, the Iranian people will overthrow their government soon enough. I predict that the ruling clergy will demote or oust Ahmadinejad to save themselves. I also predict Ali Larijani will gain greater influence in the coming years.

Bonus: Here is the transcript from Katie Couric's interview with Ahmadinejad.

FYI: if you want to castigate Ahmadinejad, HERE is the best link to use. Remember: I never said Ahmadinejad hasn't made idiotic, venomous statements in the past, just that we must question hearsay evidence and not rely on poor translations. Truth should always be the highest goal, especially when dealing with people the government wants to discredit.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Links

Here are some random links:

http://secondopinions.blogspot.com

http://persinfo.blogspot.com

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.jsp?id=1202436271998

http://atexasdefender.blogspot.com/

The quotes below are from "A Texas Defender's" website:

That flag flying over the courthouse, means that certain things are set in stone. Who we are, what we'll do, and what we won't. - Bruce Springsteen

As I grow older, I pay less attention to what people say. I just watch what they do. - Andrew Carnegie

When I do good, I feel good. When I do bad, I feel bad. And that is my religion. - Abraham Lincoln

In matters of style, swim with the current. In matters of principle, stand like a rock. - Thomas Jefferson

Let us dare to read, think, speak and write. - John Adams, 1765

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Movie Recommendation

I highly recommend 2008's American Teen. It's one of the most poignant documentaries I've ever seen. Some people have called it a real-life version of the Breakfast Club.

The Economist on Socrates

The Economist had a wonderful article on Socrates HERE:

In the coming years, many Athenians...would learn to loathe Socrates. His dialectic was indeed surprisingly negative. Typically, he became obsessed with defining something abstract—What is justice? What is virtue?—and then twisted words to dismantle any opinion offered...

Nonconformism became a heroic value in the Western tradition that Socrates helped to found, especially in societies such as America’s that value individualism...Sometimes truth and virtue require dissent and rebellion. Other times the survival or security of the group takes precedence and requires solidarity. If Socrates the free thinker belonged to a team, a club, a firm or a country today, he would never compromise his values, but he might well compromise his group...Democracies do betray themselves. Challengers such as Socrates exist to test society in its commitment to freedom and, if society fails the test, to remind it of the virtuous path.

The entire article is a must-read. Socrates, who was viewed as funny, seditious, and/or "condescending," is compared to Jon Stewart. The bottom line: people who question society, no matter the time period or location, tend to encounter resistance and sometimes death. The less resistance, the more free the society.