Wartime Safe Harbor: Oil Stocks?

Few people like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but it's important to criticize him based on objective data and correctly translated statements. His statement about calling the Holocaust a "lie" has received massive airplay in the Western media. However, if readers review Al-Jazeera's translation of Ahmadinejad’s statements, it does not appear he was calling the Holocaust a lie--he was calling it a false pretext. There is a world of difference between “false pretext” and a “lie.” Of course, without a link to an actual speech, I am speculating, just like all non-native Farsi speakers are speculating when they repeat the hearsay that Ahmadinejad denied the Holocaust.

In any case, if Mahmoud wanted to deny the Holocaust, Katie Couric gave him the perfect opportunity to do so in a 2009 interview–and he didn’t take the bait. If Mahmoud really doesn’t believe in the Holocaust, why didn't he just come out and say so during the interview?

If you are buying oil stocks (COP, XOM, etc.) and oil ETFs (USO, USL, etc.) because you believe Ahmadinejad's statements about the Holocaust support a military action, you may want to consider the following argument:

1. Most Americans aren't native Farsi speakers.

2. Because most Americans aren't native Farsi speakers, they rely on other people to interpret Mahmoud's statements.

3. Most Americans rely on major Western media outlets to interpret and translate Mahmoud's statements.

4. Most major Western media outlets are profit-driven and tend to emphasize hyperbole to attract the most "eyeballs."

5. If two interpretations exist, major Western media outlets will probably emphasize the more exaggerated interpretation to attract the most "eyeballs."

6. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad either said that the Holocaust is a "lie" or a "false pretext."

7. A "lie" and a "false pretext" are not the same things. For example, an employee may allege that his company's stated reason for termination--being late to work--is a false pretext to cover up its real reason. Calling the employee's lateness a "false pretext" does not mean the employee wasn't late--just that being late isn't the real reason for his termination. It's different than saying that the company is lying or the termination itself is a lie.

8. If Ahmadinejad said the Holocaust was a false pretext for x, y, or z, it does not necessarily mean that he denied the Holocaust.

I will point out that Iran has existed for approximately 3,000 years and has not invaded another country in several centuries. As a result, I'm not losing any sleep over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or any of his idiotic statements. I'm more concerned that Congress and the Western media are exaggerating a so-called "Iranian threat" based on inflammatory interpretations and little hard evidence of a direct threat to Americans. The last time we allowed the media and our government to hype up a so-called threat, we lost 5,000+ American soldiers and our prestige.

Also, Iran has a history of giving safe harbor to Jews (read up on Esther, for example), so there is no ingrained history of tension between Jews and Iranians. Like Glenn Greenwald, I prefer to look at actions more than rhetoric when it comes to judging threats or making judgments. Will cooler heads prevail in 2010? Only time will tell, but if the Iranian response to Neda's killing is any indication, the Iranian people will overthrow their government soon enough. I predict that the ruling clergy will demote or oust Ahmadinejad to save themselves. I also predict Ali Larijani will gain greater influence in the coming years.

Bonus: Here is the transcript from Katie Couric's interview with Ahmadinejad.

FYI: if you want to castigate Ahmadinejad, HERE is the best link to use. Remember: I never said Ahmadinejad hasn't made idiotic, venomous statements in the past, just that we must question hearsay evidence and not rely on poor translations. Truth should always be the highest goal, especially when dealing with people the government wants to discredit.

Links

Here are some random links:

http://secondopinions.blogspot.com

http://persinfo.blogspot.com

http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.jsp?id=1202436271998

http://atexasdefender.blogspot.com/

The quotes below are from "A Texas Defender's" website:

That flag flying over the courthouse, means that certain things are set in stone. Who we are, what we'll do, and what we won't. - Bruce Springsteen

As I grow older, I pay less attention to what people say. I just watch what they do. - Andrew Carnegie

When I do good, I feel good. When I do bad, I feel bad. And that is my religion. - Abraham Lincoln

In matters of style, swim with the current. In matters of principle, stand like a rock. - Thomas Jefferson

Let us dare to read, think, speak and write. - John Adams, 1765

Movie Recommendation

I highly recommend 2008's American Teen. It's one of the most poignant documentaries I've ever seen. Some people have called it a real-life version of the Breakfast Club.

The Economist on Socrates

The Economist had a wonderful article on Socrates HERE:

In the coming years, many Athenians...would learn to loathe Socrates. His dialectic was indeed surprisingly negative. Typically, he became obsessed with defining something abstract—What is justice? What is virtue?—and then twisted words to dismantle any opinion offered...

Nonconformism became a heroic value in the Western tradition that Socrates helped to found, especially in societies such as America’s that value individualism...Sometimes truth and virtue require dissent and rebellion. Other times the survival or security of the group takes precedence and requires solidarity. If Socrates the free thinker belonged to a team, a club, a firm or a country today, he would never compromise his values, but he might well compromise his group...Democracies do betray themselves. Challengers such as Socrates exist to test society in its commitment to freedom and, if society fails the test, to remind it of the virtuous path.

The entire article is a must-read. Socrates, who was viewed as funny, seditious, and/or "condescending," is compared to Jon Stewart. The bottom line: people who question society, no matter the time period or location, tend to encounter resistance and sometimes death. The less resistance, the more free the society.

San Jose Public Pensions

Here's a lovely Monday starter for you: "An audit has found some retired city employees in San Jose are receiving higher pension payments than they are entitled to, an error that would cost the city over a million dollars." For more, see HERE.

How the heck did this happen in the first place?

Mike Pence: Understanding Republicans

Mike Pence delivered a speech on September 20, 2010 that perfectly summarizes the intelligent Republican's brain. I don't agree with everything in the speech, but if you are a Democrat or liberal, you should read the entire speech. It will give you excellent insight into why Republicans think the way they do (Hint: it's not because they are brainwashed by corporations). Below is my favorite excerpt:

Power is an instrument of fatal consequence. It is confined no more readily than quicksilver, and escapes good intentions as easily as air flows through mesh. Therefore, those who are entrusted with it must educate themselves in self-restraint. A republic is about limitation, and for good reason, because we are mortal and our actions are imperfect.

The tragedy of presidential decision is that even with the best choice, some, perhaps many, will be left behind, and some, perhaps many, may die. Because of this, a true statesman lives continuously with what Churchill called “stress of soul.” He may give to Paul, but only because he robs Peter. And that is why you must always be wary of a president who seems to float upon his own greatness. For all greatness is tempered by mortality, every soul is equal, and distinctions among men cannot be owned; they are on loan from God, who takes them back and evens accounts at the end.

The entire speech is here. I agree with much of what Mr. Pence says, but his failure to criticize George W. Bush for overreach casts doubt on Mr. Pence's sincerity. In reality, whether one is a Democrat or a Republican, the issue of self-restraint usually arises when the "other guy" is in power.

Also, Mr. Pence's thoughts on the military strike me as immoral. He says that once we go to war, we ought to do whatever it takes to win. But what if the target country poses no threat to the U.S. or was invaded based on a false premise? Do we still crush the country? If so, how does he justify the certain civilian deaths that come with any war in the "shock and awe" age?

Random Thoughts on Oracle and Salesforce

Way back in 2008, Larry Ellison talked about a software sales slowdown: "Customers are signing up for fewer multiyear projects," he said, referring to software license renewals. (See SJ Mercury, 12/19/08, E1.) Oracle "draws roughly half its revenue from software license renewals. These [renewals] provide a strong and stable source of cash because the high cost of switching to a new vendor helps keep customers in Oracle's fold" (Id. at 4E). Since 2008, Oracle seems to be doing well and much better than its competitors.

At the same time, Salesforce.com's Marc Benioff continues to nip at Ellison's heels. I've attended shareholder meetings at Oracle and Salesforce.com, and if you ever want to rile up either CEO, mention the other CEO to him. When I mentioned Oracle to Benioff, I received a very long speech about Oracle's allegedly "old-fashioned" way of doing business. Later, when I mentioned Benioff's comments to Ellison, Ellison cut me off and immediately started bashing Salesforce.com. I still remember one particularly memorable riposte: "Here's some advice to Salesforce--make money." [Salesforce.com has, shall we say, a more uneven earnings history than Oracle.]

Forget about Apple vs. Microsoft--the latest Silicon Valley soap opera is between Salesforce.com and Oracle. If someone manages to make peace between Ellison and Benioff, we should send him or her to make peace in the Middle East--it'll be a cakewalk after navigating these men's intelligence and ambition. I'd volunteer to mediate, but I'm afraid I'm not big enough to restrain the very tall Benioff if the mediation devolved into a fistfight. Benioff and Ellison should resolve to sit down together and hash out their differences in 2010--now that's a new year's resolution I'd like to see come true.

Disclaimer: The views expressed on this blog are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of any company or entity.