Rafat's Law of Diversity

Here is what I call "Rafat's Law of Diversity": 

1. One constant variable in life is that change will occur.

Jim Rogers, Street Smarts (2013)

2. The ability to keep up with change and adapt to changing environments provides a competitive advantage.

3. Entities and people who adapt the quickest to change will have an advantage and will be ahead of their competition. In economic terms, this is called the ability to adapt to "creative destruction" (See Joseph Schumpeter).

4. As of 2009, the world population is becoming and has become more and more inter-linked. Globalization is occurring rapidly, causing persons who would have never interacted fifty years ago to now interact and to engage in numerous economic and social transactions.

5. In short, due to globalization, countries and entities are becoming more diverse.

6. Entities that have the ability to interact on a positive basis with numerous cultures will have an advantage over entities that either lack this ability or have less of it.

7. Entities that lack diversity appear to be slower to adapt to change.

8. Entities lacking diversity as their surrounding local or non-local environment becomes more diverse show their internal culture is more resistant to change or that they are unable to gain talent from a diverse range of sources.

9. Entities unable to draw talent from a diverse range of places or resistant to change will be disadvantaged against more fluid, diverse entities.

10. As globalization increases, entities that are more diverse will have both tangible and non-tangible advantages over non-diverse entities.

11. Therefore, more diverse entities will be more competitive than non-diverse entities.

12. As of 2009, Asians are approximately 60% of the world population. As of 2009, persons of African descent are approximately 20% of the world population. As of 2009, the United States has only 5% of the world population. Mandarin and Spanish are more commonly spoken worldwide than English.

13. The United States is a consumer-based economy that relies on domestic and international consumption of its products to increase growth, profits, and influence.

14. To fully maximize one's successful interactions with worldwide entities, one must be fluent in more than one language and well-versed in several cultures.

15. Multinational entities that fully maximize their ability to engage with several cultures will maximize their ability to gain new customers and allies.

16. Entities that fail to maximize their ability to engage with several cultures will be disadvantaged against multinational entities.

17. Familiarity with different cultures and languages will maximize a multinational entity's ability to compete globally, providing it an advantage over entities that fail to maximize their ability to compete globally.

18. "Familiarity with different cultures and languages" may be called "diversity."

19. Multinational entities that favor diversity will be more competitive than entities that do not favor diversity.

© Matthew Rafat

Update on May 14, 2012: according to an April 2012 McKinsey Quarterly report ("Is there a payoff from top-team diversity?" by Thomas Barta, Markus Kleiner, and Tilo Neumann), U.S. companies with the highest executive-board diversity had returns on equity 95% higher and earnings margins 58% higher, on average, than those with the least executive diversity.

Bonus: Individuals or groups speaking on issues is not a free speech problem. Problems arise when individuals use their free speech to gang up on private individuals or politically-disconnected minorities. Such a "minority classification" will vary based on geography. A transsexual in SF would present a different analysis than one in rural Wyoming and still another in the college town of Bloomington, IN, depending on the reach and power of the group. To smooth out such differences in power, the fed gov may and should intervene when speech presents the likelihood of physical harm to an individual targeted by "gang speech." If physical harm is not likely but access to equal protection and provision of gov services is affected, there is still a role, albeit a lesser one, for the fed gov, though in such cases, a "restitution fund" allowing the individual to move elsewhere may be the best solution. "Gang speech" may take many forms, and may include unions, corporations, or any group of powerful individuals targeting a private individual because of the private individual's speech or non-violent but non-conformist behavior. If America is to continue building on diversity as one of its strengths, it must allocate resources to maintaining this unique advantage. Just as freedom is not free, neither is diversity.

Update on January 15, 2017: "When disagreement comes from a socially different person, we are prompted to work harder. Diversity jolts us into cognitive action in ways that homogeneity simply does not." -- Katherine W. Phillips

Update on June 2017: I have created another "law" here: https://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2017/04/rafats-law-inflation-elasticity.html 

Brocade Communications Shareholder Meeting (2009)

Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. (BRCD) had its 2009 annual meeting on April 15, 2009. The day after the meeting, Brocade announced closer ties to IBM. There was no informal presentation. 

Although the meeting itself was bare bones, Brocade's Shareholder Relations team did a fantastic job. I don't think I've ever praised a company's investor relations team before, but Brocade's team deserves special recognition. 

First, they used a portable miniature microphone. A company representative went around the room offering the microphone to whomever had the floor. You would be surprised at the number of companies which use no microphones at all, forcing shareholders to speak very loudly or requiring executives to repeat questions. Most large shareholder meetings have one or two standing microphones where people can stand to ask questions. This works well for larger meetings. For smaller meetings held in a conference room, a portable microphone works best. 

Second, the food was fantastic without being ostentatious. In these hard times, companies need to balance saving shareholder money with projecting a strong, healthy image. No food or coffee at the annual meeting indicates a company that either doesn't care about its shareholders or is trying to cut costs to the bone. Brocade had coffee and mineral water--the basics--but it also had some of the best chocolate chip cookies I've ever had. These cookies were so thick, they looked like scones. If my mother hadn't taught me basic manners, I would have stuffed about 20 of them in my pockets. I asked someone who made the cookies. She told me it was Gunther's Catering. 

I called Gunther's and confirmed they made the cookies. He said it was his mother's recipe, and they baked them fresh every day. The company has been around for 39 years and specializes in wedding receptions. If you like chocolate chip cookies, get thee to Gunther's. 

Lest you think it was just the cookies that won my heart, I assure you that's not the case. Shareholder relations personnel handled themselves professionally. They did not treat me or other shareholders like unwanted guests crashing an internal company party. You'd be surprised at how poorly many shareholder relations treat ordinary shareholders--read my Visa post, for example, where a shareholder relations person tried to stop me from taking a picture with the CEO, who was actually happy to have his picture taken, and then demanded my contact information. 

Lacking a presentation, the meeting would have been over had shareholders not asked questions. CalSTRS and CalPERS representatives appeared at the meeting to check on their shareholder proposals. Prior to voting, the company did not allow any comments to be made on their proposals. A shareholder attempted to make some comments, but Brocade's executives refused to allow him a microphone. Their refusal seemed unprofessional, because disallowing comments on specific proposals stifles the flow of potentially unbiased information to shareholders. Although most companies will tell you to make your comments at the end of the formal meeting, polls are closed by that time. Strike one against Brocade's management team. 

After the formal portion of the meeting concluded, the California representatives asked for a preliminary tally of the votes. Brocade didn't have one. I've never seen this happen before at any major company. Strike two against Brocade's management team. 

I asked a few questions. I asked how the company was managing the integration of Foundry Networks (FDRY). CEO Michael Klayko said the acquisition was going well. I asked what specific gap in Brocade's (BRCD) products the acquisition fulfilled. Many times, companies will acquire another company to boost revenue but will lack a real need for an acquisition. CEO Klayko said that Brocade found it cheaper to buy the company than to create the technology in-house. Foundry, he said, had "more connectivity products." Also, Foundry had just released a new chipset/product the prior Tuesday, showing that the acquisition was going smoothly. 

I asked what problems, if any, Brocade had discovered in the course of integrating Foundry. CEO Klayko said that Foundry Networks' distribution channels needed work, and its "marketing was suspect." Brocade's marketing, however, was very good, and that's why the two companies would work well together. 

I asked how Brocade expected to compete with Cisco (CSCO) and Nortel (NT). Here's where CEO Klayko shined. He said that Nortel might not be the best example to raise, because of its bankruptcy. As far as Cisco--Brocade's main competition--was concerned, CEO Klayko said that Brocade offers "cost advantages." In other words, Brocade offered similar products but at a lower cost. CEO Klayko also said the marketplace wants an alternative. Only near-sighted customers want to encourage a monopoly, because maintaining the status quo would allow Cisco to keep its high margins and relatively higher prices. Another shareholder, who worked for an investment firm, asked about analyst reports relating to IBM. 

CEO Klayko said there were lots of rumors out there and deflected the question. (The very next day, IBM and Brocade announced they would be working together on various products.) 

Another shareholder asked about Brocade's real estate strategy (buying vs. leasing property) and received a vague answer. 

Another shareholder was unhappy about the lack of a presentation. He also criticized the in-person absence of 50% of the directors. In what was the most memorable line of the day, he told Brocade's management, "Make us feel like you give a damn about us [small shareholders]." 

CEO Klayko responded that all the directors were present, but some were present by teleconference. He told this shareholder that he'd seen him present at various meetings throughout the year, so the company did communicate with its shareholders. I may have misheard the next response, but the shareholder responded that the only reason he was able to get access to those meetings was as a client of a brokerage firm. In my mind, if any company is restricting or selectively disclosing material information only to analysts or major shareholders, it would be violating Regulation FD. Please note: I do not have any information about whether any violation of Regulation FD is occurring, and I am not making any allegation of securities law violations. I would be very upset, however, if any company communicated relevant information only to major shareholders post-Regulation FD. 

I asked the CEO about complacency. I asked what the CEO was afraid of or concerned about. The CEO gave me a five item list: 

1. Access to capital. 

2. New technology (which makes current technology obsolete). 

3. Acquisitions that change the competitive landscape. 

4. Innovative quality (how to maintain quality). 

5. Cost (keeping costs low to attract customers). 

CEO Klayko also talked about the "entitlement mentality." He seemed to be channeling one of my favorite CEOs, Cypress Semi's (CY) T.J. Rodgers. 

I asked about various memorabilia in the room, which included a jersey from The City that Shall Not be Named (at least according to ESPN's Bill Simmons) and a signed Hootie and the Blowfish guitar. The CEO didn't know about the stories behind any of the memorabilia. 

Here's where things got a little interesting. I pointed out that Brocade had presented itself as an all-white, all-male company. All four persons at the front of the room representing Brocade appeared to be older Caucasian men. There's nothing inherently wrong with that, and diversity does not guarantee success. At the same time, almost all successful global companies present themselves as non-monolithic. (Pepsi (PEP) and Coke (KO) are way ahead of the game in this aspect.) I also said the executive team's lack of diversity was strange because the company was based in Santa Clara County, where 40% of the population is born outside the U.S. 

One of America's greatest attributes is its ability to project an open, tolerant image, which has attracted many ambitious, diverse people. As a result, we have the Blackberry (Canadian); Yahoo (Taiwanese); Google (Russian); eBay (French Iranian); and so on. Companies and countries that fail to project an open, tolerant image will be disadvantaged as world economies become more globalized, allowing talent and money to move elsewhere. In a nutshell, Brocade appeared to be violating Rafat's Law of Diversity. 

When I mentioned Brocade's appearance of having a 100% native-born Caucasian male executive team, the one and only female on the Board of Directors, Judy Bruner, raised her hand with a smile. Ms. Bruner is probably a great person. She received her MBA from Santa Clara University, my alma mater, and Santa Clara University strives to produce ethical, well-rounded graduates. However, when the only female on a company's Board happily raises her hand to demonstrate diversity, it's hard not to think that the corporate culture is irretrievably monolithic. From my perspective, having only one female on an entire Board is not cause for happiness or active disclosure. Even North Dakota's MDU Resources, Inc. (MDU) has more females on its board (25% of its directors are female) than Brocade. Thus, to me, Ms. Bruner's reaction--immediately identifying herself as the one and only non-male Director, instead of letting the CEO acknowledge the company's lack of diversity--felt strange. By the way, with the exception of perhaps three or four people in the entire room, everyone else present appeared to be native-born Caucasian also, which isn't an inherent problem, but still unusual in a diverse city like San Jose, California. 

CEO Klayko did not acknowledge his management team's lack of diversity. Instead, he said that we needed to create better educational opportunities here in the United States, and we were falling behind in science and math. He said Brocade was participating in the Tech Challenge, which encouraged children to pursue careers in math and science. In other words, Brocade was actively working at the local level to attract diversity. CEO Klayko joked that he was recruiting [minorities] at the 5th grade level. In response to my comment that we lived in a county that where 40% of the residents were immigrants, he said Brocade was a global company, not a local one. 

Unfortunately, his response confirmed my belief that Brocade's management culture is monolithic. Most studies show that Caucasians are only 20% of the world population. Assuming a 50/50 split in females and males, only 10% of the world contains Caucasian men--which indicates the CEO's response wasn't statistically sound. Again, there's nothing wrong with having 90% or 100% of any race on a management team. In fact, after the meeting, Investor Relations pointed out that of the 8 directors, one was a female and one was Indian--not a bad percentage. It's culture I am concerned with, not race. From what I saw at the meeting, Brocade's management team seems to lack cultural diversity. Strike three against Brocade's management team. After the IBM news was released publicly, I sold all but one of my shares. If Brocade works well with IBM, its shares may go higher in value; however, Brocade's relatively high debt load may inhibit its shares' forward progression. 

I really enjoyed listening to the CEO. He appeared energetic, strong-willed, charismatic, opinionated without being crass, diligent, goal-oriented, and knowledgeable--in other words, someone born to be a leader. I could immediately see why he ascended the corporate ranks. At the same time, passionate CEOs generally need a Board and executive team willing to speak up and provide a voice of caution. I'm not sure that's going to happen. Strong-willed leaders tend to unintentionally crowd out dissent, especially when their companies lack a substantial number of women in the upper ranks. With only one female and one Indian-American on the Board, I don't see Brocade's current management team as being sufficiently diverse. Perhaps I am wrong. On my way out, I passed by a room with many busy workers. Everyone in that room appeared to be of Indian descent. 

Note: Brocade has a blog. CEO Klayko's most recent post is here. The first line of his post is this: 

We are a nation and an industry curled up in the fetal position. 

It's hard not to like someone so direct, passionate, and intelligent.

Vampire Pensions

As if we didn't have enough to worry about, the FT's Charles Millard warns us about "vampire pensions":

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5d8b4d42-2ac8-11de-8415-00144feabdc0.html

While economists worry about “zombie” banks holding back lending, vampire pension plans may soon be stalking a company near you. The underfunding of America’s corporate defined benefit pensions poses a daunting challenge, threatening not only their 40m beneficiaries but the entire US economy.

Oh, the many unfunded obligations.

Cash is King

Just keeping my readers posted. I sold most of my stocks and mutual funds today. Tomorrow, April 23, 2009, the government will release two sets of important numbers: one, unemployment claims; and two, Existing Home Sales. It is possible these numbers will be quite good. I doubt it.

On April 1, 2009, I told my readers that government action would make the market rise. As I predicted, it did. The S&P 500 rose from 811.08 to 843.55, a gain of 4% in just three weeks.

I still believe the S&P 500 will, sometime this year, hit my original target of between 920 and 950; however, I don't see much point in being in this market right this second. My personal risk analysis can't countenance holding mostly equities for a potential 10% gain over the next six months. I believe I will have another opportunity to jump back into the market.

If the numbers released tomorrow are good, the market will continue to rise, and I will have missed out on potentially major gains. That is a risk I am willing to take. Staying mostly in equities right now, without knowing the home sales numbers, seems too dangerous.

My short-term trading strategy has limited my losses. My retirement funds have declined approximately 14% from December 7, 2007 to April 22, 2009. (I don't know the exact percentage. Throughout the year, I deposit additional monies in my retirement accounts, which distorts the ultimate percentage even after accounting for the new deposits.) The S&P 500 has declined around 44% during this same time period. Perhaps buy-and-hold investors will laugh last, but for active traders, cash seems like a safer place to be right now than equities.

The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, I do not provide investment advice, nor do I make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss, or any other result.

Ayn Rand's The Fountainhead

I recently watched Ayn Rand's film, The Fountainhead. Overall, the film was excellent. To get a view of Ms. Rand's philosophy, you can read Howard Roark's closing argument to the jury here.

I liked the film, but disliked Ms. Rand's character, Dominique Francon. Ms. Francon seems sexually and emotionally repressed, mostly because her existence seems geared towards achieving an absence of emotional attachment or passion. For example, she destroys a statute she enjoys, and she marries a man she does not love. Gary Cooper, on the other hand, does a fantastic job playing Rand's ideal man, Howard Roark. Part of this may be individualism's bias towards men. Men, more so than women, do well under an individualist philosophy. After all, most women, because of biology, have to think of children. Unsurprisingly, Rand never had children:

It was a responsibility that she was not interested in assuming. When she was writing Atlas [Shrugged], she would sometimes say that she was "with book." The only children she wanted were her books.

And therein we see the problem with too much individualism. Child-rearing is fundamentally a self-less act. It is true that many parents wish to live second lives through their children or have them for other selfish reasons, but at least for the first six years, there is a tremendous amount of sacrifice inherent in being a parent. Thus, when you factor child-bearing and child-rearing, Rand's philosophy doesn't translate well to a growing population or to one where mothers are given additional support.

Yet, it is true that most inventions and advancements have come from a few people. Without Galileo, Marie Curie, Einstein, and other famous scientists, it is unclear how advanced humankind would be at this point. Due to its rigor, science--like writing and other productive enterprises--requires a level of introversion that overwhelms a desire subjugate one's selfish enterprise to others' desires. We can look to the term, "mad scientist," to understand that scientists are generally misunderstood, because most people prefer to spend time with people, not abstract concepts. Indeed, almost every film about scientists depicts them as crazy or eccentric. So Ayn's basic point is true--scientists need to shut out the world and be intellectually independent to achieve results. Societies that protect the scientist and/or the independent intellectual's work create better opportunities for overall advancement (for example, attitudes towards stem cell research may be used as a test study of a society's willingness to allow scientific progress). It is unclear, however, whether selfishness and intellectual independence and progress are necessarily intertwined.

Regardless of the answer to whether selfishness is the sine qua non of progress, there is a balance that must be achieved, and Rand does not seem to know how to achieve it. In fact, there is no greater argument against pure individualism than Dominique Francon, who is made up to look like Rand herself in the film. To see Francon's internal writhing on her own forced island, torn between complete independence and submission to her desires, is to understand that Rand's philosophy is a recipe for unhappiness.

It is possible to have a society that protects mothers, that views child-rearing and child-bearing as honorable acts, and one that also respects the intellectual solitude/selfishness of the scientist or entrepreneur. It is also possible to argue that altruism has an important place in society and is not superfluous. Intelligent libertarians, for example, do not argue that no laws are necessary to protect selfish or independent behavior--just that the least number of laws necessary to achieve stability is desirable. In other words, society needs to establish a balance between selfishness and societal obligation by the least coercive mechanisms possible.

Rand's philosophy of pure selfishness doesn't do much for balancing generally desirable traits, such as altruism, with other desirable goals, such as freedom. As a result, Rand makes it difficult for reasonable people to support her absolutist views.

TurboTax Blog

TurboTax has a blog:

http://turbotaxblog.typepad.com/turbotax_blog/

Definitely worth a look-see.

On Pakistan: Guest Writer Javed Ellahie

While the American media focus on Iran and sometimes on North Korea, Pakistan is looking more and more like the next danger zone. The Pakistani government recently appeased the Taliban by allowing them to enforce "Islamic" law in various parts of the country. Realizing the danger of allowing the Taliban to take over an entire state, various countries pledged billions of dollars to Pakistan to bolster faith in the state's existing government. Will it work? My guest writer, Javed Ellahie, a local Pakistani-American attorney, does not believe so.

I asked Mr. Ellahie for his input on the situation after watching a chilling Frontline episode, "Children of the Taliban," which can be found here. Mr. Ellahie's response to me was not something I've seen in the mainstream media, so I asked his permission to share it. He agreed. His response is below.

U.S. Aid to Pakistan - Billions of Dollars in Paper Cannot Undo Billions of Dollars in Bombs

Pakistan is going through a very trying time. It is a country that lives in a part of the world where China, Russia and India were the neighborhood bullies. With the rise of Al Qaeda and the tit-for-tat response of “take no prisoners” by the U.S., the whole neighborhood has gone bully-whack.

Pakistan’s frontier province has always been a no-man’s land. Pakistan’s control consisted on having the tribal chiefs on her side. This could continue as long as Pakistan was the toughest kid on the block. Now, the tribal chiefs have taken on the Americans and no longer need to bow to Pakistan or anyone else. They believe that they control their own destiny and Pakistan is nothing but a pet of the U.S.

While the U.S. has announced billions in aid, it will go to waste. U.S. Aid is channeled through consultants and corrupt politicians. By the time it gets to the target, it is worth no more than a piece of shrapnel that started as a million dollar cruise missile and now lies in between the blown out limbs of the unsuspecting as they slept in their two dollar mud house.

Pakistan's civil movement holds promise, but it must not be directed at fighting a battle which, by its continuation, will destroy the country. Its energy must be channeled into efforts towards building a civil and just society in Pakistan. The best the U.S. can do is not to send billions into Pakistan but to leave and let Pakistanis and the frontier men run their own lives.

The U.S. and Pakistan's bombing of the tribal areas destroys the village where these fearless frontier men have dwelled for hundreds of years. Having lost their homes, these proud, angry mountain men, whose pride demands that every death be avenged, are descending to the valleys and cities of Pakistan and exacting revenge. How can you convince them that it is wrong to brazenly kill innocent civilians when they themselves have witnessed the wholesale deaths of their innocent family members by unseen (cowardly) drones?

The people of Afghanistan did not consider the U.S. its enemy--Al Qaeda did. By attacking an entire swath of Afghanistan, the U.S. now has made an entire population its enemy and turned ordinary Afghans (and now frontier Pakistanis) into Taliban.

by Javed Ellahie, Esq.

One may call my colleague a cynic. Yet, his plea for the world to let Pakistan alone must appeal to anyone who believes in a nation's right to control its own destiny. In addition, outside interference may encourage more support for the Taliban. It is hard to see how anyone can join such a backwards, violent group. I only understood it after watching the Frontline episode I mentioned above, "Children of the Taliban." I strongly encourage my readers to watch the episode, which can be found on PBS's website.