Government Gets Bigger

Greg Mankiw reminds us all why he's a Harvard professor and we're not. When government expands, it almost never contracts again. As a result, most new government programs lead to current and future taxpayers contributing more of their money to the government's coffers every year--and it doesn't stop. Thus, taxpayers should be ever-vigilant when it comes to any government expansion, even those purportedly for our benefit.

An X-Mas Shopping List

For those of you looking to tip-toe back into the market, looking at money flows is one way of seeing what others are buying. On December 18, 2008, it appeared investors were buying the following companies: Cisco (CSCO); Intel (INTC); Coca-Cola (KO); and Wells Fargo (WFC). Investors might also consider adding a Brazilian ETF (EWZ) and an undervalued technology company, Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM), to the above list.

The dollar's recent decline favors American companies that receive a substantial portion of their revenues abroad. Although one of my colleagues thinks Coca-Cola is sugar water and refuses to buy the stock, Coke has a decent dividend; good cash flow; and worldwide appeal. Even if a large percentage of the entire world becomes unemployed, they still have to drink something, and coffee--especially at 4 dollars a cup--is losing its status as the drink-du-jour. I also find it unlikely that people will cut back on soda, because soda is still cheaper than most other drinks.

Cisco is poised to rebound as an infrastructure play, especially if it gains ground in China and other Asian countries. Cisco has taken various actions--which include providing support after the Sichuan Province earthquake--to convince the Chinese government it wants to be a technology leader in China.

Wells Fargo represents a risky contrarian play. When the real estate market recovers--which it will, at some point--Wells Fargo will benefit. If it maintains its dividend, investors will receive around 4% while they wait, a better rate than most CDs. I considered replacing Wells Fargo with an REIT, but I used to own REITs primarily for their dividends. At this time, Wells Fargo's dividend is high enough for me to prefer its diversified business over a REIT. I also like the fact that Warren Buffett owns Wells Fargo shares.

EWZ is a Brazilian ETF. I've included it here primarily for diversification purposes, especially in the energy/commodities sector. Some investors may prefer to buy ConocoPhillips (COP), another Buffett pick, instead.

Intel (INTC) was downgraded by Jefferies and Co. today. (Interestingly, Jefferies (JEF) itself is being sold short by Barry Ritholtz, who accurately predicted the most recent market downturn.) With a 3.6% dividend yield, a dominant market position, and around $10 billion of net cash, it's hard to see Intel stock remaining at current levels. Although the U.S. market is saturated, Asian consumers will be buying more computers, and businesses worldwide will be buying more servers--products which generally require or use Intel CPUs, due to Intel's quasi-monopoly position in the processor market.

Intel's real problem is that lower-end laptops have become so cheap, they retail for about the same price as a Blackberry, iPhone, Google Android phone, and Sony Playstation. As a result, if consumers choose to delay upgrading their laptops and instead buy an iPhone or a video game console, Intel's revenue will suffer.

Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) has no debt and finally appears to have its financial house in order, having resolved stock option backdating issues. Now that its external issues have been resolved, Maxim should do well as more consumers worldwide buy products using Maxim's analog chips. Maxim sports a 6% dividend yield.

A caveat: I don't work on Wall Street; I'm not in the business of making stock recommendations; and I don't have any financial licenses or formal financial training. Do your own due diligence before buying shares of any company. Although I currently own shares in all the companies mentioned above, I may sell all my shares in the future. Current conditions are volatile and favor short-term traders.

Disclosure: I own shares in all of the companies mentioned above. My relatives also have other financial interests, including shares, in Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM). You can read about Maxim's recent shareholder meeting here.

The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.

I plan on revisiting these stocks a year and two years from now. Prices at the close of business on 12/18/2008:

CSCO = 16.66
EWZ = 35.95
INTC = 14.26
KO = 45.18
MXIM = 12.00
WFC = 29.65

S&P 500 = 885.28
DJIA = 8,604.99
Nasdaq = 1,552.37

Update on December 23, 2008: a JP Morgan analyst disagrees with my assessment of MXIM. We will see in December 2009 who was right about MXIM. Almost all these these analyst downgrades come after the bad news has already been released. Consequently, when a major firm issues a "sell" or "underweight" rating, that's when contrarians and value investors should take a closer look at a stock.

Immigrants Add Jobs

Ah, the perennial debate about whether immigrants take away jobs: The Guardian

For the last time, the answer is "No." But no matter how many numbers are publicized or gathered, the human being is a visual animal. That means if some different-looking fella is mowing your neighbor's lawn, he's going to be noticed much more than anyone else, even if three more natives are hired at the local hardware store down the street.

The more interesting question is whether immigrants drive down wages in certain industries. I think generally speaking, they would, only because of the simple fact that more people entering any industry create more competition, which leads to lower prices. In ordinary times, people like more competition, because it led to lower prices. Now, it's a problem because people see increasing unemployment and need to find a scapegoat. Of course, they don't blame out-of-control government spending, ill-advised international adventures, or underfunded entitlement programs. Nah, it's much easier to blame that different-looking fella who talks funny.

I'm not sure this visual bias will ever change, but perhaps schools should be more effective in teaching students how the Irish, Germans, Italians, and Chinese were treated when they first arrived in America, and how they were all blamed each time an economic crisis arose.

IQ Test

From across the pond, courtesy of John Pozadzides(?), a fun blog and an IQ test (scroll towards the end of the page):

http://onemansblog.com/2007/11/08/the-massive-list-of-genius-people-with-the-highest-iq/

I didn't score exceptionally high, but at least I scored over 100, and with 10 minutes left to spare. Some of those color combos left me dizzy.

Speaking of IQ tests, here's an FT story on investors and Madoff.

Financial Times Summary (12/17/08)

I just finished reading today's Financial Times. Here are the major points:

1. Saudi Arabia feels that a fair price for oil is $75 a barrel--almost a 100%+ increase from the current NYMEX price of $39.85.

2. Yale's endowment fund lost 25% in the last four months. It's nice to know I'm beating the Ivy League.

Ron Paul on Regulation

Ron Paul publishes reports every month on the following website:

http://www.free-nefl.com/html/freedomreports.html

From his November 2008 bulletin:

Nothing should take the place of your own common sense and due diligence...Regulation can actually benefit big business and corporate greed, while simultaneously killing small businesses that are the backbone of our now faltering economy. This is why I get so upset every time someone claims regulation can resolve the crisis that we are in. Rather, it will only exacerbate it.

I've echoed these sentiments before:

The problem wasn’t and isn’t a lack of regulation, but a lack of ethics and honesty. Unfortunately, there is no law that can curb the human appetite for greed when everyone is seemingly making money. Even a casual student of economics has heard of “tulip mania,” which took place in the year 1637. Back then, the price of a tulip contract sold for more than 20 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman; in other words, people were happy to exchange 41,600 hours of hard labor for a flower that you can now get for a buck at Home Depot. Financial bubbles happen, and then they pop. Unless a law can remove humanity’s attraction to getting rich, another bubble will occur, and more people who bought late in the game will be wiped out.

http://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2008/09/ocm-other-countries-money.html

EPIC

EPIC stands for the Electronic Privacy Information Center, a nifty non-profit organization. EPIC files lawsuits against the government, forcing them to provide more information about their privacy policies and domestic surveillance practices. You can learn more by going to privacy.org

You can also donate to the organization here: www.epic.org/donate

How much is your privacy worth?