Barry Ritholtz, who manages around 100 million dollars, talks about investing:
We are now running about 70% cash, which is inordinately high, but some of the names we’re watching, and have owned in the past, are NuVasive [NUVA], a medical-device company, Stanley Works [SWK], a great infrastructure story, LG Display [LPL] and Luminex [LMNX]. Industries we like are infrastructure, defense, biotech and medical devices.
It's good to see a Wall Street insider mentioning specific company names as opportunities for investment. As for me, I do believe the market will go up, but the question is whether Obama's swearing-in in late January 2009 will represent a firm baseline, or a temporary peak for the stock market.
"And if an epitaph be my story, I'd have a short one ready for my own: I had a lover's quarrel with the world." -- Robert Frost
Monday, December 8, 2008
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Singapore, Part Deux
My earlier post on Singapore received quite a few hits:
In Defense of Singapore
Here is an article from www.theonlinecitizen.com about Singapore's political system:
http://theonlinecitizen.com/2008/12/current-system-lacks-accountability
The existence of The Online Citizen shows that Singapore does indeed have forums for anti-government debate, and the highly connected nature of Singapore--both communally and technologically--limit the government's power to impose overly rigorous speech codes.
In Defense of Singapore
Here is an article from www.theonlinecitizen.com about Singapore's political system:
http://theonlinecitizen.com/2008/12/current-system-lacks-accountability
The existence of The Online Citizen shows that Singapore does indeed have forums for anti-government debate, and the highly connected nature of Singapore--both communally and technologically--limit the government's power to impose overly rigorous speech codes.
American Lawyers
Attorney Raoul Felder recently talked about job prospects for lawyers in the WSJ, only partly tongue-in-cheek:
Meanwhile, Congress might consider a bailout plan for lawyers. There are now some 1,162,124 lawyers in the U.S., and the law schools are spewing out graduates at a rate of 43,518 a year, all set adrift upon a public that increasingly wants doesn't have money to pay for their services. There is no other profession more dependent on discretionary spending, except perhaps the oldest one.
Oh, the reality.
Meanwhile, Congress might consider a bailout plan for lawyers. There are now some 1,162,124 lawyers in the U.S., and the law schools are spewing out graduates at a rate of 43,518 a year, all set adrift upon a public that increasingly wants doesn't have money to pay for their services. There is no other profession more dependent on discretionary spending, except perhaps the oldest one.
Oh, the reality.
Friday, December 5, 2008
O' Canada
A lot of lovely, lovely numbers showing debt levels of various countries:
http://dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00536
I recently bought some Canadian currency (FXC). Because of the decline in commodity prices, the Canadian dollar has gone from parity with the U.S. dollar to only 71 U.S. cents. Looking at the Canadian debt load, especially in comparison to other countries, the drop seems overdone.
Earlier, I wrote about currencies in the following post, singling out the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc as possible diversification tools:
http://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2008/11/currencies.html
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
http://dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00536
I recently bought some Canadian currency (FXC). Because of the decline in commodity prices, the Canadian dollar has gone from parity with the U.S. dollar to only 71 U.S. cents. Looking at the Canadian debt load, especially in comparison to other countries, the drop seems overdone.
Earlier, I wrote about currencies in the following post, singling out the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc as possible diversification tools:
http://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2008/11/currencies.html
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Stocks Update: Keeping Score
A year ago--December 7, 2007, to be exact--a good friend and I started arguing about how to invest. My friend and I don't usually agree on stocks--he's more of a technical analyst, and I'm more into macro-economics. For example, he hates Coca-Cola (KO), saying he'd never invest in sugar water, while I like its consistent dividend and international business. He looks for major growth stories, while I look primarily at balance sheets and avoid companies with too much debt. When he and I have agreed on stocks, however, we've never been wrong, at least not in the short-term. Still, we decided to resolve our differences by opening up virtual trading accounts to compete against each other and also decided to keep track of our actual investment performance. This way, if we continued to argue, we would have both actual and virtual evidence to support our investing styles.
I am winning in both the virtual stock games (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Homepage.aspx), but that's because I kept most of my investments in cash, while my friend bought commodity-based companies.
In real life, I have been tracking my retirement accounts. My friend won't tell me exactly how badly he's doing, but apparently, I'm doing better (I'm down "way more" than that, he told me, after receiving news of my percentage drop). I am not gloating at all--I had positive performance through the first week of September 2008. I should have sold everything then, but didn't.
As a result, from December 7, 2007 to December 5, 2008, my retirement portfolio has declined around 23.5%. I can't provide an exact percentage, because I added monies and invested them at different times throughout 2008. In fact, I made so many trades in my 401(k), T. Rowe Price barred me from trading again until late January 2009.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 declined 41.77% during the same time period (December 7, 2007 (1,504.66) to December 5, 2008 (876.07).
So, I beat the S&P 500 by around 18 percentage points. Ordinarily, I'd be elated, but this year, for obvious reasons, I am not happy at all.
I am looking forward to continuing the competition for the next twenty years. My prize in winning against my friend this year? A Peet's (PEET) coffee of my choice. I do love their eggnog lattes, but I was so close to having positive performance, it will be painful to sip that latte. I am in my early 30's, so I have plenty of time to ride out this recession. But oh, what a difference a few months makes.
Update: my non-retirement accounts should be in positive territory for 2008, because I am typically risk-averse with my liquid assets. I am now 100% in money market funds in my non-retirement accounts. Excepting day-trading and short-term trades, I have probably kept 80%+ of my liquid assets in money market funds this year. Off the top of my head, my two worst performers, in terms of actual monetary losses, have been JMBA and YHOO.
I am winning in both the virtual stock games (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Homepage.aspx), but that's because I kept most of my investments in cash, while my friend bought commodity-based companies.
In real life, I have been tracking my retirement accounts. My friend won't tell me exactly how badly he's doing, but apparently, I'm doing better (I'm down "way more" than that, he told me, after receiving news of my percentage drop). I am not gloating at all--I had positive performance through the first week of September 2008. I should have sold everything then, but didn't.
As a result, from December 7, 2007 to December 5, 2008, my retirement portfolio has declined around 23.5%. I can't provide an exact percentage, because I added monies and invested them at different times throughout 2008. In fact, I made so many trades in my 401(k), T. Rowe Price barred me from trading again until late January 2009.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 declined 41.77% during the same time period (December 7, 2007 (1,504.66) to December 5, 2008 (876.07).
So, I beat the S&P 500 by around 18 percentage points. Ordinarily, I'd be elated, but this year, for obvious reasons, I am not happy at all.
I am looking forward to continuing the competition for the next twenty years. My prize in winning against my friend this year? A Peet's (PEET) coffee of my choice. I do love their eggnog lattes, but I was so close to having positive performance, it will be painful to sip that latte. I am in my early 30's, so I have plenty of time to ride out this recession. But oh, what a difference a few months makes.
Update: my non-retirement accounts should be in positive territory for 2008, because I am typically risk-averse with my liquid assets. I am now 100% in money market funds in my non-retirement accounts. Excepting day-trading and short-term trades, I have probably kept 80%+ of my liquid assets in money market funds this year. Off the top of my head, my two worst performers, in terms of actual monetary losses, have been JMBA and YHOO.
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