Olympics and Globalization

George Priest and Minor Meyers wrote today about globalization's benefits to America's Olympic standings (WSJ, A11, 8/25/08).

Gymnast and gold medalist Nastia Liukin was born in Moscow, Russia.

Wrestler and gold medalist Henry Cejudo was raised by a mother who was an undocumented Mexican immigrant.

The entire U.S. women's table tennis team is from China.

Globalization also helped non-U.S.-Olympians find jobs and achieve higher performance.

The Iranian basketball team's coach is Serbian.

Becky Hammon, U.S. basketball star, played for the Russian national team.

Swedish wrestler Ara Abrahamian is of Armenian descent.

Cartoonist Clay Bennett

Other than Tom Toles, I haven't been enamored with any other cartoonists...until I saw Clay Bennett. His style reminds me of Wallace and Gromit with an understated political bent. Check him out:

http://www.claybennett.com/archives.html

http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/cartoons/

Here's one cartoon students will (unfortunately) identify with:

http://www.claybennett.com/pages2/debt.html

I particularly like this one:

http://www.claybennett.com/pages2/curb_appeal.html

Bonus for your funny bone:

http://www.thingsmyboyfriendsays.com/index.html

Decoupling?

Economists love to talk about "decoupling." It sounds like just what it is--a breakup, or an ability to become independent from someone else. The world economy has been humming along primarily because of U.S. demand and U.S. dollars. Recently, with the gains in Dubai, Brazil, and Russia, people believed the era of U.S.-caused growth might be over--that finally, countries could organically create growth. This NY Times article casts doubt on that hope:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/business/24global.html?em

If the U.S. is still responsible for most growth, investors are better off just investing in the S&P 500 rather than attempting to diversify directly in international stocks or funds. But I believe decoupling will happen eventually--as the Chinese, Indians, Eastern Europeans, and Russians feel more affluent, they will spend more domestically and internationally. I've taken this opportunity to diversify my holdings and add commodities (KOL), gold (GLD), and single-country-based funds (EWM, IF, GXC) due to the pullback in most of these funds/ETFs.

USA v. Spain

Bryant, Wade lead USA to tough victory over Spain in Olympic medal showdown (or, according to the Ball Don't Lie blog: "Red, White, and Whew").

After missing the epic Nadal-Federer Wimbledon showdown this year, I wasn't going to miss Spain v. USA in the Olympic basketball gold medal match. It lived up to the hype. Were it not for Kobe and Wade each making a trey in the last six minutes to fend off Spain, Spain might have won. The final score was 118-107, but the score doesn't reflect how close the game was until the last two minutes. The last minute included four giveaway free throws from Spain to the USA, including an unsportsmanlike foul, and an easy missed layup after the outcome was in little doubt.

Both teams shot around 50%. Kobe committed several unnecessary fouls, because he always plays hard on defense, even when his team is ahead and should strategically avoid going for the steal. USA would have lost without Kobe--other than one poorly attempted three pointer, it didn't seem like Kobe missed a shot in the last four minutes. His four-point play--when he made a trey and the ensuing free throw--caused an eventual breakdown in Spain's composure, as it caused a Spanish player to foul out at a crucial time.

From my vantage point, the referees did not favor either side--they let the teams play, which is one reason the game was so close. But when the refs take a hands-off approach until the last few minutes, some calls will be questioned because of the inconsistency.

The rule differences between the NBA and Olympic rules are well explained here:

http://community.sportsbubbler.com/blogs/the_bob_boozer_jinx/archive/2008/08/07/ten-things-you-should-know-about-olympic-basketball.aspx

The surprises of the game? First, Juan Carlos-Navarro. He currently plays in the Euroleague, so he's more familiar with the Olympic rules, which allow a zone defense. (Spain's 2-3 zone defense was stellar, forcing USA to take more outside shots). Navarro broke down the USA man-to-man defense at will, scoring teardrop layups on almost every possession. He played so well, Jose Calderon didn't get much floor time.

Second, Rudy Fernandez, who signed with the Portland Trailblazers, played intelligently and effectively. Portland is going to have a monster team--here is their expected 2008 roster:

PG Brandon Roy
SG Rudy Fernandez
C Greg Oden / Joel Przybilla
SF Martell Webster
PF Ike Diogu / Channing Frye

Young, but deadly. No other NBA team has this kind of young talent, especially if Jerryd Bayless lives up to the hype. Anyway, back to the Olympics.

Dwight Howard seemed absent in the game, but that's due to outsized expectations--if he doesn't pull down 15 boards a game, we say he's having a bad day.

Lebron had some nifty passes and steals, but didn't score much. He's always been criticized for not scoring enough, but the Olympics confirmed this bias--he is definitely more comfortable passing than scoring. Blame Magic Johnson and the dazzling "Showtime" highlight reels.

Bottom line: Kobe and Wade took over--Lebron's time will come later.

Update on 9/15/2008: Bill Simmons' take on this incredible game is similar to mine:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?section=magazine&id=3575385

Must-Read Poems

Here is a website with some famous love poems:

http://www.frazmtn.com/~bwallis/lovlost.htm

Pablo Neruda's Poema Veinte ("Love is so short, and forgetting takes so long") is a must-read.

Read Theodore Roethke's "I Knew a Woman," and ee cummings' "since feeling is first," and you will gain an appreciation for what's important in life. Roethke's poem is below:

I knew a woman, lovely in her bones,
When small birds sighed, she would sigh back at them;
Ah, when she moved, she moved more ways than one:
The shapes a bright container can contain!
Of her choice virtues only gods should speak,
Or English poets who grew up on Greek
(I'd have them sing in chorus, cheek to cheek.)

How well her wishes went! She stroked my chin,
She taught me Turn, and Counter-turn, and stand;
She taught me Touch, that undulant white skin:
I nibbled meekly from her proffered hand;
She was the sickle; I, poor I, the rake,
Coming behind her for her pretty sake
(But what prodigious mowing did we make.)

Love likes a gander, and adores a goose:
Her full lips pursed, the errant note to seize;
She played it quick, she played it light and loose;
My eyes, they dazzled at her flowing knees;
Her several parts could keep a pure repose,
Or one hip quiver with a mobile nose
(She moved in circles, and those circles moved.)
Let seed be grass, and grass turn into hay:
I'm martyr to a motion not my own;
What's freedom for? To know eternity.
I swear she cast a shadow white as stone.
But who would count eternity in days?
These old bones live to learn her wanton ways:
(I measure time by how a body sways.)

On the Money: Relationship Test

I was watching CNBC's new show, On the Money, hosted by Carmen Ulrich, author of Generation Debt. When I saw it for the first time, I thought, "Oh no, not another Susie Orman." But Carmen, as she likes to be called, seems a little better, and she has a good financial compatibility test here:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26353188/site/14081545/

A 33 year old Texan woman called into Carmen's show. She said her boyfriend of one year initiated a breakup after she wanted a prenup. Carmen told her that love trumps money, and a real partnership also includes a financial merger. The woman replied that she was generally a trusting person, but not with her money. I didn't catch any real resolution, but I love the idea of women demanding prenups--it's a good indicator of gender parity and how far we've come from the all-too-common scenario of men demanding their fiancees sign a prenup the night before the wedding. (Off the top of my head, without fact-checking, I read somewhere that Barry Bonds and Larry Ellison did this. As a result, Barry Bonds changed pre-nup law in the entire state of California, making it harder to enforce them.)

In other news, Muhammad Yunus, "banker to the world's poor," says he has a 98-99% payback success on his "sub sub sub subprime" micro-loans, without lawyers or insurance. In smaller environments, such as villages, people with nothing can be more trustworthy than people with money. The problem with a large place like Texas is it's too difficult for the 33 year old woman to get an accurate measure of her boyfriend's trustworthiness and integrity. She is behaving rationally, especially after only one year. My suggestion would have been to get back together with him, but on two conditions: one, ask him to wait for another year before proposing; and two, ask to see his monthly bills and bank statements to get an idea of his spending habits. Yes, she'd be a financial narc, but if a prenup is out of the question, how else is she going to allay her fears?

Percentage of Union Workers in U.S.

Interesting fact: according to today's WSJ (August 22, 2008; A11),

In the U.S., just 7.5% of private-sector workers are union members, and about 12% of all workers, including government workers. In the euro zone, 18% of private-sector workers and 22% of all workers, are unionized.

Unions themselves are neither good nor bad for the economy. In fact, theoretically, unions provide stability to workers and reduce replacement and retraining costs for employers, so they should be economically favorable. The problem with modern-day unions, especially government unions, is their benefits, such as pension and health care liabilities, are uncertain. Without some direct tie-in to the present value of funds in the budget, government union benefits could expand exponentially, sapping more and more taxpayer dollars. In addition, many union negotiations occur behind closed doors, providing no check on expanded taxpayer liabilities.

No business or government can survive by continuing to add undefined, potentially unlimited benefits while running major deficits.

More on California's government unions HERE. More on California's teachers' unions HERE.

More on the general topic of government unions here (Warren Buffett); here ("Rotting from Within"); and here (Road to Bankruptcy).

Update on February 15, 2010: the NYT and Phyllis Korkki have their own percentages on union membership HERE. Basically, in 2009, 12.3% of wage and salary workers were union members. 7.9% of the aforementioned 12.3% were government workers, meaning just 4.4% of private sector workers were unionized.

Among government workers, local government workers like teachers, cops, and firefighters (as opposed to state and federal government workers) had the highest rate of public sector membership, at 43.3%.

See THIS chart for more information (Catherine Rampell, NYT, June 1, 2010). In California, 13.7% of all employees were state and local government employees in 2009. That doesn't sound like a huge percentage, but most elections inspire only 50% to 70% of eligible voters to come out and vote. That means union members often supply 20% to 25% of the total voters on a proposition or candidate.

Update on May 3, 2012: according to a Alasdair Roberts Bloomberg article ("Can Occupy Wall Street Replace the Labor Movement?") published May 1, 2012,

"In 1981, the labor movement was already in decline, and the trend accelerated afterward. In 1960, one-third of the private-sector workforce had been represented by trade unions. Today, only 8 percent is. The missing army of private-sector union members--that is, the number of additional workers that the movement would include today if unionization rates had stayed at levels of the 1960s and 1970s--is about 20 million people."

Update on May 7, 2012: Amanda Paulson, Christian Science Monitor (online, seen May 7, 2012):

"Less than 7 percent of private-sector workers now belong to a union, compared with more than 30 percent in the 1950s. Since 1983, about 3 million fewer people are represented by unions...The public sector, however, has been somewhat cushioned...Some 36 percent of state and local workers belong to unions (and that includes "right-to-work" states that prohibit union-only workplaces and have far smaller union rosters)."

Update on December 12, 2012: CNN has a map that shows union membership per state:  http://money.cnn.com/interactive/news/economy/union-membership-by-state/