On Commodities

From Donald Coxe, Global Portfolio strategist of BMO Financial Group:

This is not the end of the commodity bull market. Bear Stearns, F&F and other crises will one day seem trivial. The new global middle class that is repricing commodities never will.

I am behind the curve when it comes to investing in commodities. Right now, the only one that looks interesting to me is UNG. I did pick up very small amounts of GLD, GDX, and SLV today because I had no precious metals in my portfolio. ( I just thought of Gollum when I said "precious" metals--like I said, I'm really behind the curve.) Deep down, I think Swiss francs (FXF) represent a better hedge, and I own some FXF, but I see the merits of owning some Gollum, er, precious metals in an inflationary environment.

Stocks Update, 8/8/08

Numbers below are based on prices at mid-day on August 8, 2008. Positions below have at least a $2,500 basis or current value of at least $2,500.

I've had 175 of CCT for a while and am up 2.03%. If you don't want to invest directly in a company's preferred shares, check out PFF, an exchange-traded-fund containing a basket of preferred shares (I own shares in PFF also).

The market will be choppy for a while. These large swings we've had--up 300 points, down the next day, up 200 points the next day, etc., will continue until the experts feel prices have bottomed out. Unfortunately, the experts want to see more volatility before deeming a market bottom. Investor's Business Daily says we're in a confirmed rally, and even Barry Ritholtz said several days ago the Dow would temporarily go back to above 12,000.

I am not committing large amounts to the market yet, but am enjoying trading. The percentages below are deceiving--my short term trades involve far more money than my open positions. If I make 1% on a $50,000 trade each time, but am losing 8% on a $3,000 investment like IF, I am still up.

I sold WFR because I noticed many competitors jumping in the solar wafer business. When I saw SOLF and other Chinese companies enter the market, I thought to myself, "Let's see, WFR, competitive advantage, wide moat...hmmmm." And then I blanked. I sold the very next day, eking out a small gain.

I am also slowly adding commodities-related investments. I missed the boom and didn't have any commodities, but with their recent price decrease, they are slightly more interesting. To be more diversified, at least 15% of my portfolio should be in commodities-related industries or non-equities. I recently invested small amounts in UNG (bought more today), KOL, and JNK. I'm nowhere near 15% for diversification purposes, but will get there at some point. My friend recommended MRO, but the information about its spinoff or breakup of the company is already public knowledge. I am not sure the market is that inefficient.

In other news, the Olympics are here!

Open Positions
DUK = +1.11
EWM =-8.07 [will average down from here]
EZU = -0.57 (own 65 shares) [excluded from average, negligible movement]
IF = -8.01
YHOO = -2.89

[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 4.46%]

Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4%

[Overall Record: Lost an average of 2.82%]

Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]

[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.85% (changed after NVDA sale)]

Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)

[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]

Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 7.38%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day August 8, 2008 (1283.42)]

The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.

Map of Income Rankings

Above is a map showing where the money is and isn't in America. California, New York and Texas were expected high-income places, but northwestern Arizona, Utah and New Mexico? Interesting. When in doubt, go (north) West?

Lawrence Summers Sums Up the Economy

Lawrence Summers, in the FT, writes an intelligent, comprehensive analysis of our current economic environment:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c94dd7ac-6417-11dd-844f-0000779fd18c.html

[L]arger deficits are likely to be potent in stimulating demand...China, where household consumption has fallen below 40 per cent of GDP - a record peacetime low for any big economy - stands out in this [high rate of savings]....While there surely will come a time when things hit bottom, it is not yet clear that it is at hand.

So, we need more government spending, there's no bottom yet, and China needs to get its citizens to start spending instead of saving.

You know it's bad when conservatives start bringing up Reaganomics...whatever happened to cutting spending and trying to have a surplus or balanced budget?

Joshua Rosner Wants Capitulation

Joshua Rosner agrees with Barry Ritholtz about capitulation. Mr. Rosner says a market recovery will come only after "capitulation" by the rating agencies and corporate executives, whom he believes are still playing "accounting games" and not fully disclosing the severity of their losses. See full article:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/45271/Economic-Slowdown-Just-Getting-Started-Says-Credit-Crisis-%27Prophet%27?tickers=WMT,TGT,MER,MCO,MHP,XLY,XLF

This "capitulation" talk smacks of Wall Street wanting to get cheap prices before committing itself to the market. I understand financial stocks should capitulate even more--but it sounds like all the experts demand a marketwide capitulation before deeming a market bottom. Because Wall Street firms control major assets and have probably gotten out the market or are currently selling it short, the average "buy and hold" investor will be screwed. All because of one sector that has little to do with the hefty balance sheets of technology companies. I don't like this one bit.

SJ Merc on Santa Clara County's Diversity

Funny, after talking about corporate diversity , the SJ Mercury News published an article today about Santa Clara County's even racial mix (Mike Swift, front page). Apparently, no racial group is more than 40% of the total population. But here's the best line, from Michael Cornwell: "It's all just Silicon Valley: Let's make money and be happy." I couldn't have summed up Santa Clara County better.

As for diversity, we are diverse because we have been able to attract educated immigrants, who happen to be from non-white countries. Any capitalistic system requires more immigration to sustain itself. In a capitalist system, there will always be many poor people trying to get out of the vicious cycle of poverty--that's the unequal nature of the beast and also its salvation. Immigrants increase demand and give money or work to existing residents wherever they go. Capitalist countries should increase immigration so demand for services, products, and real estate also increase, allowing people already here to benefit. Once the new immigrants--who have to spend more money, buy or rent real estate and otherwise participate in the economy--save enough money, it's time for the next round of immigrants to come in and create more demand.

America's low population density allows capitalism to be successful. The EU, especially the UK, with its limited land area, will have difficulty sustaining its move towards a more capitalist system, because at some point, real estate will get so expensive new immigrants will be unable to afford it. In contrast, America can keep adding millions of people every year without difficulty. The sparsely populated Midwest, especially, ought to be trying to attract educated immigrants from all over the world. You can argue about legal or illegal immigration--but you're talking about form, not substance. Every capitalist system needs more immigrants unless it wants to create massive, perpetual inequality. Being pro-capitalist means being pro-immigration, because immigrants create instant demand for numerous services and products. As long as these immigrants are able to get jobs, save money, and buy homes, they will successfully integrate into society. Then, it's time for the next round of immigrants to enter and keep the cycle going. In the long run, because of the perpetual danger of the majority population lapsing into "the other" mentality, it's hard to be pro-immigration without being pro-capitalism. A capitalist society, where income streams are highly diversified, allows at least some immigrants to make money no matter what their government's policies.

In contrast, socialist systems need to be more careful with immigration, ensuring they do not attract more people than they can assimilate. France's riots reveal what happens when a socialist system attracts and invites too many immigrants--the lack of jobs to go around breeds resentment and anger. Ultimately, socialist systems and welfare states can work quite well--see Scandinavia, for example--but only in homogeneous situations hostile to immigration and with low birth rates (or, in the case of China, a one-child policy).

America's openness to immigration and its ability to absorb immigrants are the primary reasons we are successful and continue to be different from the European slower-growth model.

Lloyd Grove's Interview with Naomi Klein

Naomi Klein is an unabashed liberal. She has several interesting things to say about the current economy--here is an interview with her:

http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/the-world-according-to/2008/07/24/An-Interview-With-Naomi-Klein

Ms. Klein loses credibility when she uses George Bush II as evidence that Milton Friedman's policies don't work. George Bush II created a bigger government, not a smaller one. In addition, no policy--whether "Democrat" or "Republican"--will work without integrity. The current U.S. administration lacks integrity, and that has nothing to do with Milton Friedman.

I have to give credit, however, to Ms. Klein's ability to advocate her position: she says, "The Cato Institute [a conservative thinktank], essentially, they are Friedmanite Trotskyites." Ms. Klein is definitely an original.

I agree governments scare their citizens in order to further government objectives. The level of pessimism in the U.S. is high, but that feeling is rational. Under George Bush II, the government has lied to us; allowed the torture of people to become legitimate government policy (don't forget to thank Dershowitz and Yoo for this); locked up old men and teenagers in offshore prisons like Guantanamo without due process; and can't seem to figure out how to become friends with Iran, whose citizens generally like America and held candlelight vigils post-9-11. In a consumer-based economy with voluminous exports, the last thing the American government should be doing is ticking off the rest of the world--which happens to be 95% of worldwide population (Americans are currently only 5% of the world's population).