Lloyd Grove's Interview with Naomi Klein

Naomi Klein is an unabashed liberal. She has several interesting things to say about the current economy--here is an interview with her:

http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/the-world-according-to/2008/07/24/An-Interview-With-Naomi-Klein

Ms. Klein loses credibility when she uses George Bush II as evidence that Milton Friedman's policies don't work. George Bush II created a bigger government, not a smaller one. In addition, no policy--whether "Democrat" or "Republican"--will work without integrity. The current U.S. administration lacks integrity, and that has nothing to do with Milton Friedman.

I have to give credit, however, to Ms. Klein's ability to advocate her position: she says, "The Cato Institute [a conservative thinktank], essentially, they are Friedmanite Trotskyites." Ms. Klein is definitely an original.

I agree governments scare their citizens in order to further government objectives. The level of pessimism in the U.S. is high, but that feeling is rational. Under George Bush II, the government has lied to us; allowed the torture of people to become legitimate government policy (don't forget to thank Dershowitz and Yoo for this); locked up old men and teenagers in offshore prisons like Guantanamo without due process; and can't seem to figure out how to become friends with Iran, whose citizens generally like America and held candlelight vigils post-9-11. In a consumer-based economy with voluminous exports, the last thing the American government should be doing is ticking off the rest of the world--which happens to be 95% of worldwide population (Americans are currently only 5% of the world's population).

Tucker Max on Being a Lawyer

This will be the first time in a while since I've had two consecutive legal posts. In case any readers are dying to go to law school, take a look at this link [NSFW due to coarse language] before you send off that Harvard Law application:

http://www.tuckermax.com/archives/entries/date/the_now_infamous_tucker_max_charity_auction_debacle.phtml#703

Here's the money paragraph:

It wasn't the firm that I hated; it was the very nature of the job. Being a lawyer SUCKS. When you are a lawyer, your job is to clean up the messes of others, to rubber stamp and make legal someone else's real work, to essentially be a paper custodian for the people who actually do important things. The people at Yahoo and Cisco and Network Solutions (all our clients) actually did something; what did I do? Stupid, mindless, and ultimately irrelevant bull----. I was a junior paper-monkey, and I hated every second of it.

Now, two clarifications:

1, The above doesn't apply if you open your own firm, but you still have to work for someone else first to learn the ropes. Also, if you open your own firm, you'll be successful based more so on your prowess as a businessperson than an attorney. But don't take that as a recommendation to go to business school. I hear the MBA courses impart even less real-life knowledge than law school, which is quite a feat.

2. There is a lot of interesting work in the practice of law, and Tucker Max based his ideas on an entry level associate's perspective. Eventually, as an associate learns more and is entrusted with more complex work, his or her legal tableau becomes more interesting. For example, I've learned a lot about different professions and cultures, and no other job would have provided me with the perspective and breadth of human knowledge I have today.

As for Tucker Max, here's what the NYT had to say about his sense of humor: "highly entertaining and thoroughly reprehensible." I will say no more, but ignore the post on law at your peril.

World's Largest Free Law Library

Check this out:

http://www.plol.org/Pages/Search.aspx

"The Public Library of Law" looks like a google for lawyers.

WSJ on Turkey's Islamic Capitalism

Singaporean 2006 Collectible Coin

Today's WSJ ("Muslim Land Joins Ranks of Tigers") profiles how Islam has benefited Turkey's economy. Despite the tug-of-war between the secularists and the Muslims, there is no question that the pro-Islam party has brought better economic prosperity to Turkey. This adds more evidence to my overriding theme that economics is destiny. A country could believe in Wicca, and as long as it was also successful, we'd all be analyzing how Wicca makes people rich. Any religious or political system that allows people to work hard, feel appreciated, feel safe, and gain material prosperity will be considered successful and progressive. 

Here are some interesting lines from the article, written by Andrew Higgins and Farnaz Fassihi: 

Islam itself has nothing against business. The Islamic prophet Muhammad [peace be upon him] started out as a merchant, and his first wife was a successful businesswoman. Asked to fix prices in the bazaar by followers who wanted to buy goods more cheaply, Muhammad [peace be upon him] is said to have refused: "Only Allah governs the market." 

Now there's one interpretation of the "invisible hand" in action. Of course, Dubai has been successful more consistently than Turkey. Turkey's bonds were paying in excess of 20% until recently (still around 13% from my last memory--these numbers have not been cite-checked). 10 year U.S. bonds now sell for around 4.05%. 

The lower the interest rate on a country's bonds, the more stable the country usually is, because the country has to increase rates to whatever point makes sense to investors after a risk-reward analysis. The higher an interest rate on government bonds, the more risky the country is perceived. Even with higher interest rates and potential inflation problems, Dubai and Turkey should be cited as economic and yes, Islamic, successes. 

Malaysia, at least today, has done the best job in terms of creating both an Islamic and an economically successful state. With its increasing diversity, Malaysia must now find ways to integrate its entire population or risk losing its most successful workers to neighboring countries. It's a problem all rich countries, including America, have and it can be an opportunity to re-affirm nationalism in a peaceful way. Singapore, for example, had a great idea in making an independence day coin displaying different races. See links below:

http://www.singaporemint.com/product_info.php?products_id=966

http://www.singaporemint.com/product_info.php?products_id=810 

Back to Turkey. I own Turkish bonds in my T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Bond fund (PREMX) and am happy thus far. PREMX also has Iraqi bonds with a 5.8% interest rate. Apparently, the market thinks Iraqi bonds are only a moderately less safe bet than U.S. bonds. I wonder what the interest rates on proferred Iraqi bonds will be when American troops leave. It may not make much of a difference, as long as some troops remain to protect the oil pipelines, or if Iraqi security forces are strong enough to protect their own pipelines. Interesting note: the Iraqi bond held by PREMX matures, or ends, on December 28, 2025. Yup, the year 2025--over 17 years from now. 

Charles Wheelan and the Fed Budget Deficit

Charles Wheelan, a Yahoo Finance columnist, is the author of Naked Economics, one of my favorite and most accessible economics books. Here's what he had to say recently:

If you want to know how bad this [debt] problem is likely to get, check out this alarming graph [above] from the Heritage Foundation based on data from the Congressional Budget Office. (Warning to parents: The graph is inappropriate for children -- not because it's pornographic, but because they'll realize how much your generation is totally shafting them.)

See http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/economist/98587?count=30&start=6#dtk-cmtscnt for more.

Bottom line: we're borrowing from many future generations to pay for obvious mistakes now. The U.S. dollar and our world image are suffering as a result.

Why Does Gasoline Cost $4 or More?

Here is a graphic from the Washington Post re: oil prices. I got this from Barry over at http://bigpicture.typepad.com a while ago:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2008/07/26/GR2008072601566.html?sid=ST2008072601558&pos=list

I disagree with the Barry "The Big Kahuna" Ritholtz on market capitulation (he is waiting for it, I don't think it will happen), but love his blog.

Stocks Update: out of SO/GRMN, in WFR/TTWO

Numbers below are based on prices at market's close on August 5, 2008.

I sold Southern (SO) after seeing it listed as one of the highest sold-off stocks (largest outflow of money) this week. Someone seems to know something I don't, and that makes me uncomfortable. I lost about 30 bucks on the trade, including the dividend payout.

I sold Garmin (GRMN), taking a loss. I violated the rule of never catching a falling knife. However, I wasn't completely off my rocker, because I bought only 80 shares, intending to average down slowly. In the end, I only lost around 180 dollars.

Since posting trades publicly, SO and GRMN are the first times I have lost money on short-term trades (held less than 7 days). Most of my short term trades--the ones I intend to be short-term--are major trades of 500 shares or more. My losses on SO and GRMN were about two hundred (200) dollars total, and I did not intend for them to be short-term trades, so I'm not concerned.

My two main holdings now are WFR (bought more today--stock went down because a storm might affect production--unless this storm is called Katrina's Sister or the Second Coming of Katrina, wake me up when it's over) and TTWO. I sold 150 shares of my TTWO holdings today, and now own 250 shares. I also have CCT, most of which was bought many months ago, and I am slightly positive on CCT.

The Fed decided to stay pat on interest rates. This should be good news for my international bond funds.

Open Positions
DUK = [bought on 8/7/08]
EWM = -5.73
EZU = +1.55 [excluded from average, insignificant movement; will be excluded completely in the future b/c I realized I only own 30 shares, below the 2,500 dollars basis or current value threshold for inclusion]
IF = -7.13
TTWO = +4.89
WFR = 0 [excluded from average; new position]

[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 0.72% [changes with addition of DUK and sale of VNQ on 8/7/08]

Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WYE = +2.4%

[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.97% [does not include 8/7 sale of VNQ]]

Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08 and 8/7/08]

[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.72% [does not include 8/7 sale of TTWO]]

Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)

[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]

Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 7.27%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to close on August 5, 2008 (1284.88)]

The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.