We Don't Need No Stinking Capitulation

The economy looks bad, but when experts demand a 5% or more down day before buying stocks, we may have to wait a long time for a real recovery. Market experts, including Barry Ritholtz (http://bigpicture.typepad.com/), want capitulation, or one day of panic; however, the markets have placed rules to prevent large down days. The new rules against naked short selling are another brick in the wall against a Depression-era one-day dip. In addition, Grasso instituted trading curbs ("circuit breakers") to prevent exactly what the experts want. Meanwhile, Congress continues to consider regulations against ICE and other trading exchanges to prevent instability. If the experts and mutual fund managers want something the exchanges and government are actively preventing, even good economic data may get cast aside as we create a self-fulfilling sideways market.

The facts are that oil has come down from its high, and the American dollar is slowly recuperating. The dollar has already decreased so much the Mexican and Canadian currencies are the ones that look overvalued. The European Central Bank (ECB) has to maintain or increase interest rates to keep its superior edge on the dollar, and at some point, EU citizens will be screaming bloody murder when growth slows or stops. We forget that Europe has many powerful and influential companies that want to sell their own products abroad and are becoming angry at the U.S. dollar's weakness.

As for oil, barring an Israeli attack on Iran or vice-versa, oil will decrease in price. Commodities experts have been denying a supply issue for months. In the absence of a supply issue, oil prices will decrease as Americans use less oil--unless the law of supply and demand suddenly vanishes.

I am no Pollyanna, but with money markets offering 2%, and CDs not much better, if investors don't take some action, inflation (running around 5%) will destroy their purchasing power. Having said that, why is the market discounting technology companies, many of which have plenty of cash and were not involved directly in subprime, finance, or housing? If I'm Intel (INTC), Google (GOOG), ST Microelectronics (STM), Microsft (MSFT), Brocade Communications (BRCD), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), or MEMC (WFR), I'm beginning to wonder if the American stock market is an inefficient way of valuing my company. After Sarbanes-Oxley, why would a rational company want to have an IPO in this irrational market?

Disclosure: I own shares or plan on buying shares in the above companies.

Stocks Update, July 24, 2008

Numbers below are based on prices at the close of market on July 24, 2008.

Open Positions
EWM = -6.57
IF = -8.45
VNQ = -1.02

[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 5.34%]

Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from averages and overall record calculations)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
WYE = +2.4%

[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.97%]

Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%)

[Overall Record: Gained an average of 3.31% (avg has changed because of GOOG trade)]

Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)

[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]

Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 9.6%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day July 17, 2008 (1252.54)]

The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.

Random Thought: Good Writing

Once in a while, I see some beautiful writing and want to share. This one's from Virgil's Georgics, about rural/farming life:

By winter fire-light, shaping with keen blade

The torches to a point; his wife the while,

Her tedious labour soothing with a song,

Speeds the shrill comb along the warp, or else

With Vulcan's aid boils the sweet must-juice down,

And skims with leaves the quivering cauldron's wave.

Bush Gets It Right

President George Bush explained the banking problems rippling through the economy as a drunken binge that has resulted in a hangover:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7522335.stm

Apparently, this is news to some people and/or has offended some people. President Bush actually explained this one perfectly. I don't understand the controversy. If you're going to attack him for something, try his earlier linking of 9/11 to Iraq. Don't attack him for something when he makes sense.

Update on July 24, 2008: David Ellison in today's WSJ, C1, uses the same terminology as Bush: "Half of an alcoholic's problem, Mr. Ellison said, 'is admitting he's an alcoholic.'"

Susan Decker = Best Corporate Officer Ever?

CNBC had an interview today with Susan Decker, who is now Yahoo's president. She is currently my favorite corporate officer. She has an aura that exudes competence and intelligence, as well as femininity. Women who want to rise up in the corporate ranks ought to study Ms. Decker.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25815607

She is married with three children.

Most Overpaid Jobs

Chris Plummer has a great article on overpaid jobs:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/10-most-overpaid-jobs-us/story.aspx?guid={954AA053-F953-43F3-BBC8-63D351A3BF2A}&dist=TNMostRead

CEOs and mutual fund managers go towards the top of the list.

Apple v. Bank of America: Whisper Numbers Come Home to Roost

Some of you who have been following earnings releases will be forgiven for not understanding why the market punished Apple (AAPL) after it released better-than-expected earnings (19%+ EPS surprise), while Bank of America (BAC) increased from $20/share to $32/share after showing its net income decreased by 41%. AAPL's stock was down at one point by 10%. Its growth prospects are still quite good, especially because market penetration in China is incomplete (Steve Jobs indicated that iPhones were being used in China without providing revenue back to Apple due to hacking and IP issues). BAC, on the other hand, will have major problems with its acquisition of Countrywide as more and more notices of defaults (NODs) occur. In fact, in recession-resistant Santa Clara County, NODs recently spiked.

The market makes no sense sometimes, except when it does. Earnings guidance is a game played between companies and analysts. When Apple (AAPL) tells Wall Street it expects 10% increase in sales, it does so with a wink. Apple gives the Street lower numbers so it can beat those numbers come earnings time. The Street, of course, is a formidable player. It accepts Apple's lowered expectations with a wan smile and then dumps it if the numbers aren't dramatically higher. The real numbers required to maintain or increase share price are sometimes referred to as "whisper numbers." Wall Street accepts the lower numbers on paper but demands that the company meet its whisper number later on. It's a strange song and dance that serves no one well.

AAPL went down while BAC went up because shares prices are based on how much money a company expects to earn in the future, not what it made last quarter. So the Street doesn't care about the actual numbers released--it knows it's all a game. The Street pays more attention to how well the company says it will do in the future, especially whether the company will maintain or increase full year guidance (i.e., whether the quarterly numbers released every three months will add up to the full year's "earnings per share" expectations).

What is an average investor to make of all this? Only that share prices are based more on future expectations of value than on past statistics. As they say in business, past performance is no guarantee of future results.