Numbers below are based on prices at the close of market on July 24, 2008.
Open Positions
EWM = -6.57
IF = -8.45
VNQ = -1.02
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 5.34%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from averages and overall record calculations)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.97%]
Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 3.31% (avg has changed because of GOOG trade)]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 9.6%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day July 17, 2008 (1252.54)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
"And if an epitaph be my story, I'd have a short one ready for my own: I had a lover's quarrel with the world." -- Robert Frost
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Random Thought: Good Writing
Once in a while, I see some beautiful writing and want to share. This one's from Virgil's Georgics, about rural/farming life:
By winter fire-light, shaping with keen blade
The torches to a point; his wife the while,
Her tedious labour soothing with a song,
Speeds the shrill comb along the warp, or else
With Vulcan's aid boils the sweet must-juice down,
And skims with leaves the quivering cauldron's wave.
By winter fire-light, shaping with keen blade
The torches to a point; his wife the while,
Her tedious labour soothing with a song,
Speeds the shrill comb along the warp, or else
With Vulcan's aid boils the sweet must-juice down,
And skims with leaves the quivering cauldron's wave.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Bush Gets It Right
President George Bush explained the banking problems rippling through the economy as a drunken binge that has resulted in a hangover:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7522335.stm
Apparently, this is news to some people and/or has offended some people. President Bush actually explained this one perfectly. I don't understand the controversy. If you're going to attack him for something, try his earlier linking of 9/11 to Iraq. Don't attack him for something when he makes sense.
Update on July 24, 2008: David Ellison in today's WSJ, C1, uses the same terminology as Bush: "Half of an alcoholic's problem, Mr. Ellison said, 'is admitting he's an alcoholic.'"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7522335.stm
Apparently, this is news to some people and/or has offended some people. President Bush actually explained this one perfectly. I don't understand the controversy. If you're going to attack him for something, try his earlier linking of 9/11 to Iraq. Don't attack him for something when he makes sense.
Update on July 24, 2008: David Ellison in today's WSJ, C1, uses the same terminology as Bush: "Half of an alcoholic's problem, Mr. Ellison said, 'is admitting he's an alcoholic.'"
Susan Decker = Best Corporate Officer Ever?
CNBC had an interview today with Susan Decker, who is now Yahoo's president. She is currently my favorite corporate officer. She has an aura that exudes competence and intelligence, as well as femininity. Women who want to rise up in the corporate ranks ought to study Ms. Decker.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25815607
She is married with three children.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25815607
She is married with three children.
Most Overpaid Jobs
Chris Plummer has a great article on overpaid jobs:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/10-most-overpaid-jobs-us/story.aspx?guid={954AA053-F953-43F3-BBC8-63D351A3BF2A}&dist=TNMostRead
CEOs and mutual fund managers go towards the top of the list.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/10-most-overpaid-jobs-us/story.aspx?guid={954AA053-F953-43F3-BBC8-63D351A3BF2A}&dist=TNMostRead
CEOs and mutual fund managers go towards the top of the list.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Apple v. Bank of America: Whisper Numbers Come Home to Roost
Some of you who have been following earnings releases will be forgiven for not understanding why the market punished Apple (AAPL) after it released better-than-expected earnings (19%+ EPS surprise), while Bank of America (BAC) increased from $20/share to $32/share after showing its net income decreased by 41%. AAPL's stock was down at one point by 10%. Its growth prospects are still quite good, especially because market penetration in China is incomplete (Steve Jobs indicated that iPhones were being used in China without providing revenue back to Apple due to hacking and IP issues). BAC, on the other hand, will have major problems with its acquisition of Countrywide as more and more notices of defaults (NODs) occur. In fact, in recession-resistant Santa Clara County, NODs recently spiked.
The market makes no sense sometimes, except when it does. Earnings guidance is a game played between companies and analysts. When Apple (AAPL) tells Wall Street it expects 10% increase in sales, it does so with a wink. Apple gives the Street lower numbers so it can beat those numbers come earnings time. The Street, of course, is a formidable player. It accepts Apple's lowered expectations with a wan smile and then dumps it if the numbers aren't dramatically higher. The real numbers required to maintain or increase share price are sometimes referred to as "whisper numbers." Wall Street accepts the lower numbers on paper but demands that the company meet its whisper number later on. It's a strange song and dance that serves no one well.
AAPL went down while BAC went up because shares prices are based on how much money a company expects to earn in the future, not what it made last quarter. So the Street doesn't care about the actual numbers released--it knows it's all a game. The Street pays more attention to how well the company says it will do in the future, especially whether the company will maintain or increase full year guidance (i.e., whether the quarterly numbers released every three months will add up to the full year's "earnings per share" expectations).
What is an average investor to make of all this? Only that share prices are based more on future expectations of value than on past statistics. As they say in business, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The market makes no sense sometimes, except when it does. Earnings guidance is a game played between companies and analysts. When Apple (AAPL) tells Wall Street it expects 10% increase in sales, it does so with a wink. Apple gives the Street lower numbers so it can beat those numbers come earnings time. The Street, of course, is a formidable player. It accepts Apple's lowered expectations with a wan smile and then dumps it if the numbers aren't dramatically higher. The real numbers required to maintain or increase share price are sometimes referred to as "whisper numbers." Wall Street accepts the lower numbers on paper but demands that the company meet its whisper number later on. It's a strange song and dance that serves no one well.
AAPL went down while BAC went up because shares prices are based on how much money a company expects to earn in the future, not what it made last quarter. So the Street doesn't care about the actual numbers released--it knows it's all a game. The Street pays more attention to how well the company says it will do in the future, especially whether the company will maintain or increase full year guidance (i.e., whether the quarterly numbers released every three months will add up to the full year's "earnings per share" expectations).
What is an average investor to make of all this? Only that share prices are based more on future expectations of value than on past statistics. As they say in business, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Pfizer (PFE)
Like many before me, Pfizer (PFE) has caused me heartbreak. I sold all but 100 shares of it today, and will consider it a closed position at a percentage loss of 5.5%. I also picked up more IF and EWM and opened a new position, VNQ.
It appears I correctly called a bottom in the banking sector. Today, Bank of America reported better than expected earnings (which means they weren't completely abysmal), and CNB keeps chugging up. As one of the few people in the entire country who called at least a short-term banking bottom correctly, I am waiting for my first CNBC appearance...but won't hold my breath.
I've been keeping track of all my retirement accounts, which is where I do most of my trading. From June 3, 2007 to July 21, 2008, my portfolio increased 3.0%. It's not great performance, but the S&P 500 decreased 18% during that same time period, so I'll take it [from June 1, 2007 (1536.34) to July 21, 2008 (1260)].
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
It appears I correctly called a bottom in the banking sector. Today, Bank of America reported better than expected earnings (which means they weren't completely abysmal), and CNB keeps chugging up. As one of the few people in the entire country who called at least a short-term banking bottom correctly, I am waiting for my first CNBC appearance...but won't hold my breath.
I've been keeping track of all my retirement accounts, which is where I do most of my trading. From June 3, 2007 to July 21, 2008, my portfolio increased 3.0%. It's not great performance, but the S&P 500 decreased 18% during that same time period, so I'll take it [from June 1, 2007 (1536.34) to July 21, 2008 (1260)].
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
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