Thursday, May 29, 2008

Long's Drugs Stores Corporation Shareholder Meeting, May 29, 2008

The Longs Drugs Stores shareholder meeting (LDG, 2008) took place at the Shadelands Arts Center in Walnut Creek, CA. Walnut Creek is a storybook kind of city, with trees, churches, and friendly people seemingly on every corner. The Shadelands Center in Walnut Creek is a room that is part of an overall community center. There were about 160 chairs in the room. Food was practically non-existent. Pepperidge Farm's basic "Milano" cookies were served with some coffee and water. (Of all the Pepperidge Farm products to bring, why, oh why, did it have to be the basic Milano?) Needless to say, I was not impressed with the food offerings, and with the meeting being held in a community center, and no company products being given away, I was ready to call "cheapo" on Longs. I was pleasantly surprised, however, by the quality of the presentation. Longs is an old-school company, but if you're dealing with drugs, maybe old-school is just fine.

First, some definitions: PDP = prescription drug plan; PBM = pharmacy benefit management services; and front-end sales...we'll get to that later.

Longs Drugs first began by introducing its Board. The actual presentation was done by slides. Longs' CEO, Warren Bryant, talked about "superior customer service" being an "important differentiator." He seemed bullish on Hawaii. Longs opened six new stores there, while shutting down stores in other states. A slide indicated that Longs opened its first store in Hawaii in 1954.

Rx America, LLC (http://www.rxamerica.com/) is Longs' real jewel. Longs doubled its Medicare beneficiaries from the previous year.

Longs touted its share buybacks and community service (local charities and Governor's Council on Fitness and Sports).

The Q&A session had exactly one person who asked questions, and yes, it was yours truly. I asked what "front end sales" and "front end merchandise" meant. (See 21-23 of 10K, etc.) The CFO said it basically meant "everything other than prescription sales." This is an important term and should be defined more clearly in the 10K--other drug stores (e.g., Rite Aid) have been hit with accounting scandals, so drug companies need to be as clear as possible in their accounting terminology.

I asked the CEO about Longs' reliance on AmerisourceBergen (Symbol: ABC), which supplies them with most of their drugs (http://www.amerisourcebergen.com/cp/1/). (ABC's numbers are difficult to decipher because of the acquisition of Bellco in October 2007 as well as its share buybacks.) I asked why Longs didn't take a minority stake in such an important partner, and only did a 50% joint venture with them. CEO Bryant said that ABC was a publicly traded company and that Longs had no investment stake in it. He deferred the joint venture question to the CFO, who said that about eight years ago, ABC and Longs started a joint venture to open a "central fill operation" in Sacramento, CA, which was completed about three(?) years ago.

I asked whether Longs had a "poison pill" provision to prevent a takeover from CVS or Walgreen's. The CEO made some comments but basically said that it was a matter for the Board of Directors. The general counsel chimed in and said that after a stockholder's rights plan amendment a few years ago, there was no "poison pill" as the term is generally understood. I am betting CVS eventually makes a bid for Longs.

Before I get to the annual report, one interesting tidbit--I heard some directors talk about Dubai. One said, "I was just in Dubai--fabulous." Dubai is getting a good reputation among businesspeople.

Here are the highlights from the 10K:

Pages 14-38 are about compensation. (The first part of the 10K pamphlet is a compensation audit.)

The actual 10K report begins on a separate page 1 after the compensation audit. Longs was founded in Oakland, CA in 1938 (page 1).

Pages 39-40 would be fun to read for employment lawyers. Longs talks about what a "for cause" departure is for severance package purposes.

Longs has 510 stores, mainly on the West Coast and Hawaii (447 stores in CA: see pages 6, 13).

Here's an interesting part: RxAmerica, Longs prescription benefit subsidiary, is buying an insurance company (which it openly refers to as a "shell" company). Longs has to buy such a company because the new Medicare rules require all prescription plan providers to do so--although I can't figure out why, other than the reference to plan providers shouldering some of the risk and the expiration of Medicare and Medicaid waivers. The company is Accendo (page 2), which used to be Nutmeg Life Insurance (page 5). Now, here's the issue--presumably, these insurance companies have issued policies to customers. What happened to all those policies, especially the life insurance ones? I should have asked this question at the meeting, but I really didn't have much information about the insurance company transaction, so I refrained.

See also pages 11-12: For 2009 and forward, "in accordance with the federal statutory mandate [Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003], the insurance company [Accendo] will provide the Medicare prescription drug plans." Apparently, Accendo has to make a bid to CMS (Center for Medicare) for 2009. Seriously, could Longs be more vague?

Longs completed a distribution center in Patterson, CA (I've never heard of that city before).

Longs has 21,900 employees, with 55% being part time, and non-union (page 5).

Medicare and Medicaid = 24% of pharmacy sales (page 6).

Longs 4Q sales increase not only generally because of the holidays, but because of the cold and flu season--when people need drugs and flu shots (see page 6). I had forgotten that Longs and other drug makers love it when we get the flu. What's also interesting is that the report implies that the fourth quarter seems to be when Longs does much of its non-pharmacy business, but that reading could be a mistake on my part. I need to see the quarterly reports to confirm this overall 4Q-concentration, because it seems counterintuitive.

As indicated previously, AmerisourceBergen (ABC) is Longs major supplier of drugs (page 6). A joint venture is mentioned on page 28.

Page 7 indicates that Longs fears competition from mail order services. (Really? I wouldn't want to get my drugs by mail from an unknown company. Perhaps Canada is operating reputable mail order facilities?)

Page 5--no international sales.

Page 8--Longs plans on closing 31 stores in 2008.

For all you job-seekers and college hopefuls--on page 9, Longs says there is a "shortage of licensed pharmacists."

Page 14: this is why people hate lawyers. See Rankin v. Longs Drugs Stores California, Inc. (legal name). Basically, the lawsuit alleged that Longs employment application violated Labor Code 432.8 by inquiring about criminal convictions over the last seven years, without carving out an exception for marijuana use more than 2 years old.

LC 432.7, which is where 432.8 derives from:
(a) No employer, whether a public agency or private individual
or corporation, shall ask an applicant for employment to
disclose, through any written form or verbally, information
concerning an arrest or detention that did not result in
conviction...
So the lawsuit alleged that job applications must specify that a company is asking for non-Mary -Jane-related convictions. Can you say, "technicality"? Unfortunately, that's how many (most?) lawyers make money in state court--by doing what they were taught in law school, which is to parse everything and abuse technicalities. (State court is far more nurturing of the technical than federal court, which tends to look at the substance of a complaint.) Go legislators! Don't stop until you've made it impossible for any small business to survive in California without having an army of lawyers. (If this were a Tom Toles cartoon, the bottom right hand side of this piece would say, "You're almost there...")

But enough against lawyers--how else would a bloke like me make money?

Longs has properties located in CA, UT (pharmacy benefits), and NV (call center).

Page 19--Longs expanded in Reno by buying out some other company's stores. Nice move--with all the hangovers from gamblers and revelers, Longs should do good business there.

Page 24--more generics lead to better profit margins for Longs. Retail drug store gross profit was 26% of retail drug store sales in 2008.

See page 24-25: as a result of the way Medicare Part D works, Medicare doesn't actually provide any fees to the drug company until after a Medicare recipient spends more than $2,510 on prescriptions. Then, from $2510 to $5726, the recipient covers all costs. Then, from $5726 onward, the drug provider is responsible for 15% of the drug costs. So basically, until grandma spends $5726, Medicare isn't very profitable for a drug provider, and it takes several months to get there--another reason why Longs makes much of its money in Q4.

So there you have it--Longs is going to be a good company and attractive takeover target, assuming its insurance company purchase works out. It's too difficult for new entrants to get into the pharmacy business, so there seems to be a wide moat here. Also, no one (except maybe Walgreen's) has the stores in California that Long's has, so CVS is going to be knocking one of these days. As long as anti-trust issues don't harm any possible deal, Longs should be a decent long term investment. I will look to add shares if Longs falls to the low 40's and will also be looking at AmerisourceBergen (ABC).

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

CNBC "Stalks" Warren Buffett

In case you missed it, CNBC posted a page dedicated to Warren Buffett:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/19206666/

If the above link doesn't work or becomes outdated, google "CNBC Warren Buffett Watch."

Here are two transcripts relating to the 2008 Berkshire Meeting:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24466954/

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24427682/

Jamba Juice, Inc. (JMBA)

Jamba Juice, Inc. reported earnings today, or, perhaps more accurately, no earnings--it lost 0.21 cents a share in Q1. JMBA is currently selling below book value, but that may not necessarily indicate that it's a good value play. Its products appeal mainly in the summertime, and outside of the West Coast and the South, the weather isn't sufficiently warm to increase demand for cold fruit smoothies year-round. The breakfast shakes it introduced earlier this year were a good idea, but they haven't caught on like the Frappuccino. Perhaps due to the lack of advertising of its new products, same-store sales declined. Jamba continues to have one of my favorite drinks, the Matcha Green Tea Blast. The key for selling drinks seems to be to make them sweet with whipped cream and include chocolate. Jamba, unfortunately, doesn't really have too many chocolate drinks.

But the problem isn't with Jamba's products--its smoothies taste good, and its stores are packed when the weather is hot. Jamba's issue is that consumers think of the company only when the weather gets warm. In order to convince consumers that Jamba smoothies should be a daily addition to one's diet, Jamba needs to add drive-thrus or get locations that aren't in strip malls to encourage time-strapped workers to go to Jamba in the morning. (Do you know a lot of people who regularly go to suburban strip malls--where Jamba has many of its stores--in the morning? I certainly don't.) To give you an example, I work in downtown San Jose, and there are two Starbucks and one Peet's within walking distance, but no Jamba Juice store. If there was a Jamba nearby, I would go almost every single day. A Popeye's Chicken store is opening nearby my office--and still, no Jamba. Jamba's failure to seek out good locations is mind-boggling. By focusing on strip malls, Jamba is robbing itself and its shareholders of the lunchtime and business crowd. It's a very costly mistake, and many a store has gone out of business because it failed to properly choose its location.

In other news, Jamba announced a deal with Nestle today, which pumped its stock 13%, or thirty cents; however, this appears to be old news, as Jamba already announced this deal several months ago. Jamba's shareholder meeting is tomorrow at the Doubletree Hotel. I will try to attend, but may not be able to make it because the Long's Drugs shareholder meeting is on the same day.

My three worst trades, percentage-wise, have been JMBA, SPCHB, and PCYC. I'm losing around 1,600 dollars total on these three stocks and refuse to sell them because once a stock hits the single digits, I figure either it's going to go back up in five years or go bankrupt, and I usually pull the risk trigger and wait and see. I don't have much money in these stocks anymore--but I am still frustrated with Jamba's management because it fails to understand that location is at least half the game in the food business.

3M Stock Trade (MMM)

To give readers an idea of just how jittery I am about the market--and who wouldn't be, with Buffett and Soros making their dire comments--I sold my MMM today and made a meager $138.41 in one business day. The trade occurred in my Roth IRA, so taxes won't be deducted. I will continue to keep an eye on MMM. Costco and Sears report earnings this week--the market will be watching closely.

Monday, May 26, 2008

Investors Looking for Income

Ben Stein has recommended DVM, a Cohen and Steers closed-end REIT fund (Dividend Majors Fund). I will keep my eye on this fund as well as EWM (Malaysia) for my retirement accounts. I am also looking at WES (Western Gas Partners), but not as a dividend or income play. As my readers know, I am concerned about making any investments until 2009 or beyond.

The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.

Las Vegas Sands Corp Annual Meeting and Report

The LV Sands' (LVS) annual report focuses on its expansion into Asia, more specifically Macau/Macao and the Cotai Strip (a term coined by LVS like the Vegas Strip, to identify the casino district of Macau).

One problem I have with its notice of meeting is that it doesn't tell you exactly where it is--just that it's at the Venetian 3355 Las Vegas Blvd South, Las Vegas, NV 89109. That's all very nice, but where in the Venetian? This sort of vague notice always activates my "welcome" sensors and makes me think a company doesn't want to deal with individual shareholders, a sign of insularity. Lo and behold, page 25 of the 10K confirms my suspicions: "Mr. [Sheldon G.] Adelson and trusts for [his] benefit...beneficially own approximately 69% of our outstanding stock...we are considered a controlled company under the NYSE listing standards...The interests of Mr. Adelson may conflict with your interests." Really? You don't say.

But the situation in Macau isn't much better. Stanley Ho practically owned all the casino licenses and now "holds one of the three concessions." Guess who owns another concession/license to operate? His daughter: "MGM MIRAGE has entered into a joint venture agreement with Stanley Ho's daughter, Pansy Ho Chiu-king, to develop...two major hotels....in Macau." (page 8, 2007 annual report). Wynn owns the third concession.

Here are the rest of the 10K's highlights, at least from my perspective:

1. LVS's main geographic areas are in Vegas, Macao, and Singapore. The international expansion is a prodigious move, because Asian consumers are more flush with disposable income and have a non-Puritan culture that doesn't deem gambling sinful.

2. One issue I don't understand is why there are so few tables and slots at Sands Macau. The Sands Macao has 630 table games and 1,350 slot machines (page 2). The Pennsylvania license LVS received allows 3,000 to 5,000 slot machines (page 13), and the Venetian Macau has 1,150 table games and 2,650 slot machines. There is obviously a size difference involved (229,000 sq ft for the Sands Macau vs. 550,000 sq ft for the Venetian Macau), but it is hard to see why visitors will choose the Sands Macau over the Venetian. One reason may be its location near the waterfront, i.e. the casino just wanted a location near the waterfront and was willing to sacrifice amenities and space. Page 44 shows the difference in revenue--the Sands actually made more than twice the revenue of the Venetian Macau, but that's because the Venetian Macau opened in August 2007. Over time, I see a less prosperous future for the Sands Macau unless it can somehow differentiate itself.

3. If anyone is interested, the Vegas Venetian's table games win percentage was 22.3% in 2007, which means that players won slightly more than 1/5 of the time (page 44). Not good odds. For more on this issue, see

https://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/lady-luck-didnt-visit-the-venetian-218/

For gamblers: https://www.amazon.com/Gamblers-Book-Shelf-Straight-Percentages/dp/B003O5SSEI

4. At the MGM shareholder meeting, CEO Lanni implied that LVS's real estate development wasn't progressing smoothly. If that is the case, LVS's condos, set to open in late 2009, may impact LVS negatively up to 600 million dollars (page 3).

5. As cities lose manufacturing, they will turn to casinos to make up lost tax revenue. Witness the Sands Bethworks, a casino set to open in Bethlehem, PA in summer 2009. Brace yourself, Sean Thornton--Steeltown is now Gamingtown (page 3).

http://www.pbase.com/ckuhn55/bethlehem_pa

6. LVS may build a casino/resort in Kansas City, KS (page 5).

7. Macao's currency is called the "pataca," and it is linked to the Hong Kong dollar, which is pegged to the U.S. dollar (page 7).

8. There are apparently popular games called "pachinko" as well as "pachislot parlors" in Japan (page 8). I've never heard of these games, and I've played a round or two of Doppelkopf. Baccarat is the most popular game in Macao (page 7).

9. Nevada generally taxes gross revenues from casinos at a 6.75% rate (page 12).

10. The Nevada Board requires casinos to put 10,000 dollars into a revolving fund for any possible investigation "into their participation in such foreign gaming operation." (page 12) This struck me as hilarious, because the 10K doesn't really define what this investigation would entail, and the amount is too low for an adequate investigation.

11. One major problem with Macao is that Macao taxes gross revenue, but "gross gaming revenue does not include deductions for credit losses" (page 17). This means that if a player gets x million dollars in credit from the casino and fails to pay up, the casino still has to pay taxes on that x million dollars. As a result, casinos aren't going to be as willing to extend credit to their players, which could be a problem in the future, as some major players might feel disrespected.

12. Singapore seems to have the most fair taxation structure. See page 18: it taxes 15% of the gross gaming revenue, but reduces the tax to 5% for VIP players. Singapore protects its own citizens by disallowing LVS from extending credit except to "premium players and non-Singapore residents." I bet there's going to be some interesting discussions about who a premium or VIP player is for the purpose of calculating taxation. Singapore allows bad debts (credit extensions to players that are not paid) to offset corporate income tax. Once again, Singapore seems to be at the forefront internationally in how it deals with business.

13. LVS employs about 28,000 employees worldwide. The Venetian and Palazzo employees are non-union (page 18-19).

14. One the easiest sections in a casino operator's 10K is the IP section. There's practically no risk in having your intellectual property taken away from you except for someone mis-using your name.

15. Here's one interesting note for next quarter's numbers, and perhaps some good news for LVS investors: see page 20--LVS has most likely sold its Shoppes at the Palazzo on or around February 29, 2008 for around 700 million dollars, which will boost gross revenue as GGP pays off LVS. I can't see any specific one-time payments from GGP in the most recent quarterly reports (nothing in "Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets" line on the Income Statement--maybe recorded under "Non-Cash Items" in the Cash Flow?), but it must be recorded somewhere.

16. For people who are unfamiliar with how real property transactions typically occur in China and places where there isn't much land (Side note: America's single greatest advantage is its vast land. Thank you, France--that was the best 23 million ever spent in the history of the world): basically, you don't buy the land, you get long term renewable leases. Page 30 indicates that LVS has a long term lease for 25 years, with automatic extensions of 10 years. I don't know how "automatic" that renewal really is. The bottom line is that if LVS ticks off the Macau government, those investments on the land may revert back to the state.

17. Some bad news: LVS has been getting a corporate tax holiday in Macau--this tax break will continue only to the "end of 2008" (page 34).

18. We now come to the straight dope. See page 40: for 2006 and 2007, diluted earnings per share went from 1.24 to 0.33. Ouch.

As I indicated in my earlier post on the MGM shareholder meeting, I am neutral on gaming stocks.

No matter how its gaming stocks are performing, Vegas makes for a fun trip and will continue to benefit from Californians' love of a quick weekend getaway and cheap Southwest Airlines fares. If you get to Vegas and you're a sports fan, go to the sports book at the Wynn. If you love food, check out the buffet at the Rio. Personally, I wouldn't miss the Burger Bar at Mandalay Place. Get the buffalo burger (cook it medium) with an egg over easy as a topping and the sweet potato fries.

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Of course, one of the best ways to decide whether to buy a stock is reviewing similar companies that are reporting earnings and studying their earnings; however, it is also very important to see what economic numbers are being released, such as unemployment, new home sales, etc.

I have a feeling I may wake up early tomorrow.