Uber/Grab Taxi Conversations

Sun Star Cebu (July 2017)

In Cebu, Philippines, I had very interesting conversations with Filipino drivers. Grab, a Singaporean company, competes with Uber. (As of July 2017, Lyft's international footprint is non-existent.) Grab's app is like Uber's but more intuitive. Grab users can message faster with drivers and can take advantage of a "notes" section when booking. I use the notes to tell the driver what I'm wearing ("red shirt, sunglasses, 6 ft," etc.). Interestingly, Grab uses Google Maps whereas Uber appears to use its own mapping system. (Update: in Indonesia, both Grab and Uber drivers do not trust any of the navigation apps and so rely on their own memories/knowledge or other people's directions. I'm not surprised--Google maps told my driver to turn into a one-way street several times.) 

Because Grab and Uber are fairly new entrants to countries outside North America, most drivers have worked for them less than a year. I heard two very interesting stories from Grab drivers I'd like to share and paraphrase:

Driver 1: Been working less than three months for Grab. Before, he worked in SEO. Speaks perfect English. Attended college but left with one semester to graduate. Why didn't he finish? He realized he didn't want to work in the profession. (In the Philippines, when you attend a college program, your final year consists of actual on-the-job experience.)

He's 37 but looks much younger. 

He's married to a Chinese woman. Much to my surprise and delight, Chinese women and Filipino men are becoming a more common pairing. If you don't already know, Filipinos do not generally like the Chinese--their cultures are completely different. In this case, the wife's entire family had college degrees, so they imposed a requirement on him to get a degree before he could join the family. I guess by the fourth year, the family realized the love was real and didn't need a piece of paper from an accredited college for verification. My Pinay friend, after hearing the story, remarked, "Ah, the Chinese."

He works about 14 hours more each week driving than in his SEO job but makes slightly less money. Why doesn't he go back to SEO? He controls his schedule as a Grab driver, and he can see his family more often.

Driver 2: Been working one month as a Grab driver. Before this, he supplied lechon (pork) to restaurants and restaurant suppliers. (Cebu is famous for two products: lechon and mangoes.) 

He owned his own business selling lechon. Why did he quit? He wasn't paid on time. Most customers would pay 50% up front and 50% when the lechon was sold. Enough people stiffed him that he's better off working as a Grab driver, where payment is guaranteed if the work is done.

Does he work more or less than before? He works more. He works from 6AM to 10PM, seven days a week(!). Getting paid timely is always a struggle as a small business anywhere, and I'm surprised no one has created an app that evaluates people and business's ability to pay suppliers and vendors. The app would be straightforward. Businesses and vendors would confirm when payment was made; whether it was timely; and if not, how many days late. The data would be used to create a "reputation" score for each business and vendor accepting products from suppliers. Over time, payments could be made directly into an escrow account handled by the app's company, creating a more accurate paper trail--and a very profitable, useful business. Why hasn't this app been created already?

The startup costs would force unprofitability for years, as the app's customer service reps mediated conflicting information about when payment was made. They would also need to identify forgeries and fakes, as well as build relationships with banks. With all the bad press banks have received, you'd think they'd be at the forefront of such small-business friendly apps. It tells you something about American capitalism that banks have invested so much in Fintech and online shopping but not in a version of the app I've just described.

Small businesses can benefit tremendously from technology and have benefited greatly as costs have declined. For example, savvy American business owners can use Intuit products to improve efficiency, avoiding expensive experts. Broadband access usually makes everything easier by leveling the playing field in terms of information access. Although Westlaw/Lexis and other accounts can be very expensive, they are still faster than having to go to a library and sift through hardcover volumes for hours to find what you need. Yet, somehow, in the year 2017, no one has figured out how to improve the basics--getting paid on time--for small businesses that lack a substantial online presence, a category that covers most small businesses in the world. What a shame. 

Days of Yesteryear: Newspaper Edition

In high school, I eagerly awaited Sunday's newspaper so I could read syndicated columns by Dave Barry, Mike Royko, Thomas Sowell, and Charles Krauthammer, as well as the Calvin & Hobbes comic strip. I didn't care about anyone's political affiliation. Most writers who made it into the Sunday paper were undeniably authentic and had in-depth personal knowledge. I was interested because each of them cared about the topic discussed and provided relevant research, even if only anecdotal. If any journalist had a chip on his or her shoulder, I couldn't feel it on my ink-stained fingers. I would save articles I loved in my cabinet, a shrine to the many words of wisdom I felt lucky to read. 

A few days ago, when a newspaper--from the same publisher--unexpectedly arrived on my parents' porch, I went to throw it in the recycling bin, asking my mom along the way whether she wanted it. She demurred, and off to the bin it went, unopened. How times have changed. But why? 

Despite more information publicly available than ever before, I learn more about a scientific topic by speaking to my sister, a PhD scientist, for 5 minutes than anything online. Writers can fit only so much context in a short article, but they don't have much competition--the number of experts able to provide "big picture" context is extremely limited. As the always interesting Nassim Taleb might say, oftentimes, it's not what you say, but what you leave out. 

A lawyer/analyst recently published an article arguing record consumer debt wasn't a cataclysmic problem but missed an issue: are his numbers and data based on organic, sustainable growth--such as steady, predictable tax receipts--or artificial, unsustainable catalysts, such as government borrowing at ever-increasing interest rates? Without knowing the answer to the aforementioned question, the entire article as well as its research is useless. This author, the editor of the blog, The Big Picture, somehow missed the big picture--despite doing considerable research and using diverse data sets. 

I emailed him, saying, "You... failed to list overall liabilities, such as pension and other local gov obligations. If local and state govs borrow more and transfer their debt/revenue to local residents, of course the overall picture will appear better." 

He responded, "These are current, not future liabilities." 

This expert accepts an analytical approach where if 100 people owe 1 million dollars now and have jobs that can reasonably cover the interest on their debts now, it doesn't matter if their government--local, state, and federal--or their private sector employer owes 100 billion in bond or other payments due tomorrow. 

But without knowing present and future liabilities, one cannot determine whether last year's tax receipts and accompanying job growth are sustainable. If governments or private employers owe 100 billion tomorrow, they might require higher taxes, fewer new hires, and more debt (presumably at different interest rates, impacting present-day revenue). 

If the debt is pension-related, then more revenue would be needed to replace the retired workers as well as to pay ongoing pensions unless the pension fund was 100% funded. In short, future liabilities can dramatically change the assumed rates of job growth, tax revenue, consumer demand and inflation, rendering prior data almost useless. It's as if there's a Black Swan event we can actually predict, but no one wants to do the additional math because it's too complicated. 

So I wrote Barry Ritholtz back: "[I]f we have a bill due tomorrow, analyzing only today's liabilities and GDP makes no sense if the entire structure depends on rolling over massive debt and other financial engineering." 

That's when it got interesting--and slightly snippy: 

My response: 

The value you were trying to provide was context, not knocking down a strawman, I hope. 

If since 2007, govs have borrowed more money and transferred that money to their residents on local, state, and fed levels while doing little to resolve systemic issues such as lowering pension obligation interest rates, etc., then the result won't be the same. It'll be different, of course, but serious problems will remain, meaning your article promotes complacency rather than true context.  You want the "big picture"? So do I. 

Barry: "See how it's totally not the same because of a lack of defaults and overall population and other changes that I'm going to examine without trying to see if the growth is merely because govs borrowed more money?" 

Skeptical Guy: "Dude, analyzing only today's data makes no sense if you're unable to determine that consumer/mortgage borrowing wasn't merely replaced by gov borrowing, which then was transferred to residents, leaving systemic issues alive and well, but with a larger fuse and more dependence on low interest rates."  

Barry: "Dude, I was just analyzing why it ain't exactly the same." 

Guy: "What value is that if your goal is to analyze the big picture?"

And that's where the conversation ended.  

When I opened my newspaper in the 1990s, I never once suspected Mike Royko wasn't an expert on everything Chicago. When Peggy Noonan taught me politics is all about "Whose ox is being gored," I knew she was speaking from a reservoir of personal experience. Today, in contrast, when I click on content, I sense people consider themselves experts after one-hit wonders or because they know the "right" people. Worse, I sense journalists and experts no longer have power behind their pen. Even if they manage to capture eyeballs, the public's threshold for outrage has risen so high, nothing will be done unless an army of paid meme creators and politically-connected groups manufacture simplistic slogans that fail to capture any complexity. 

Maybe that should be the modern journalist's motto (and epitaph): "So simple, you'll be outraged and demand change without really understanding a damn thing." 

3 Nights in Brunei Darussalam

I'm in Brunei, and I'm pleased to tell you more about this city-state because almost no independent literature exists to assist tourists. In a nutshell, Brunei is a combination of Malaysia and Indonesia, with many features borrowed from Singapore.

Where to Stay/Quick Overview

If you're rich or enjoy the finer things in life, stay at the Empire Hotel and Country Club in Gerudong. You'll be on the beach, see beautiful sunsets, swim in a lagoon-shaped pool, and receive excellent service. 

No filter. Right outside Empire Hotel about 7pm.

If you want an upscale hotel near the locals instead of a beach resort, try the Rizqun International Hotel in Gadong. It's connected with a mall frequented by locals, and you'll be closer to lots of activity, including a fun amusement park (Jerudong Park). 

If you're a cheap bastard like me and have a budget, consider the Jubilee Hotel, where I stayed. (I booked on Agoda and got a great deal.) It's within walking distance of most tourist spots and Bandar's major bus terminal. The taxi drivers loitering in the bus station appeared to be unlicensed but offered very reasonable prices. Away from competition, most taxi drivers tried to charge me inflated prices. As a general rule of thumb, going from Bandar--the city hub--to any well-known tourist destination should cost between 5 to 15 Brunei dollars. If you're going to a different district, like from Bandar to Jerudong, which is a 15 to 20 minute ride, then you're looking at 25 to 30 Brunei dollars. Your hotel will generally have access to a shuttle, which can take you almost anywhere for around 10 Brunei dollars.

As of August 2017, Brunei doesn't have Uber or Grab. Brunei is one of the smallest countries in SE Asia and doesn't have tons of tourists, so it's not yet a cost-effective destination for companies whose business models depend on economies of scale (i.e., lose money up front, but eventually become profitable as more customers use your service--a strategy easier to do in China than Brunei). Brunei does have an online taxi app called Dart, but phone service from the local carrier, PCSB, is out of network for my T-Mobile plan, so I wasn't able to use it. The good news: Brunei's bus system is fantastic--you can get to and see many places in an air-conditioned bus for just 1 Brunei dollar, including the spectacular Jame' Asr Mosque.

Not supposed to take pictures. Oh well.
Too beautiful not to share.

In any case, let's get you familiar with Brunei.

Taman Haji Sir Muda Omar Ali Salfuddien

1. Brunei's Dollar is Pegged to the Singaporean Dollar

Brunei has a central bank, but its dollars are interchangeable with the Singaporean dollar. (I don't know if the reverse is true in Singapore.)  If a business gives you Singaporean dollars back instead of Brunei dollars, don't fret--they're the same because their value is pegged exactly to your currency based on the Singaporean dollar's strength.

 2.  It Should Cost about 15 to 22 Brunei Dollars to Get from the Airport to Your Hotel

I landed at 10:30pm, so half the airport was closed, and only two taxi drivers were available. One offered to charge me 25 Brunei dollars to go to my hotel, but I counter-offered 22 Brunei dollars, and he accepted. It turns out my hotel would have picked me up for 10 Brunei dollars, but that's what I get for not planning ahead. Oh, in case you're wondering why 10:30pm seems late, almost everything closes by 10pm in Brunei. If you want nightclubs and cheap beer, go someplace else.

When you arrive in the airport, once you exit security/immigration, go to the second floor. You'll be able to withdraw money from the ATMs there. 

Even with a non-ASEAN passport, I had zero problems with Brunei's airport or its security. Everyone was courteous.

3. Brunei Embodies Asian Fusion

As I said earlier, Brunei is basically a micro-sized combination of Indonesia and Malaysia, but with more money per capita. Everyone speaks at least some English, but quite a few people are more comfortable with Malay. If I had to guess, English is the official language of instruction in schools, but the farther away from the city center, the more people speak Malay exclusively in their homes. 

Regardless of the language spoken more fluently, every single Bruneian I met was friendly and open. Two separate Bruneians, after no more than two minutes of conversation, offered to take me directly to tourist spots by their own car or a taxi. One of them even paid for a boat to a taxi, then helped me find the Arts & Handicrafts Centre (definitely worth a visit).

Wearing the national hat, the songkok, at the Handicrafts Centre

You must understand--I'm fairly annoying as a tourist. I dress shabbily, assume every vendor is going to defraud me and my heirs, walk everywhere, ignore signs (especially ones asking me not to take pictures), and ask tons of questions. On this trip, I battered the wife of a petroleum engineer with about 25 questions once she told me she worked for the central bank. After a few particularly complicated questions, she said she was low on the bank's totem pole (an excellent way to save face), prompting her husband to remark, "It's the weekend--her brain is turned off and will start again on Monday." We all had a laugh, but if I behaved similarly elsewhere, I'm almost certain the couple would not have driven me back to my hotel and shown me their equivalent of the Royal Palace and Gadong Night Market along the way. Bruneian hospitality is incredible. 

A few other observations: 

A.  Despite lacking a train, subway, or tram system, Brunei does not have the traffic jams familiar to most SE Asia residents. You know what it does have? The most courteous drivers in all of SE Asia. 

B.  I've been to Indonesia and Malaysia, so it's normal for me to see Muslim Asians, but if you don't already know most Muslims in the world live in the Asia-Pacific region or that Indonesia is the world's largest Muslim country, you might be surprised to see beautiful Asian women wearing hijabs or headscarves.

C.  Brunei's food is typical Malay: every menu will have nasi lemak, mee goreng, nasi goreng, and teh tarik. Milo is really popular here. I mean, really popular. Nestle has done too good a job advertising the health benefits of its fortified chocolate milk, which plays into Brunei's biggest problem: obesity. With the weather at 88 F (31 C) in August, it's hard even for me, a former wrestler, to walk my usual 3 to 5 miles a day, so less athletic Bruneians can't burn calories naturally when they drive everywhere and do much of their walking straight from cars into air-conditioned buildings. Still, it's depressing to see so many little kids overweight.

4.  ASEAN is Creating Incredible Opportunities for Tourism within SE Asia

It's the 50th anniversary of the free trade agreement originally made with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, now expanded to all of SE Asia between Bhutan and Australia except Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste. China and Japan are noticeably absent from the bloc, the idea being that Vietnam, Singapore, and other smaller Asian countries can get a better deal for their people by working together rather than individually. So far, ASEAN has worked exactly as it should. In 2017, it represents a growing population of 628 million consumers and a combined GDP of over 2 trillion dollars. If you visit Brunei's tourist centre, you'll see this picture of Brunei over the years. Notice the rapid jump from 2004 to 2008? 

Politically, America's "pivot to Asia" never happened, and China stepped into the void. Most ASEAN members were stunned when both American presidential candidates rejected the TPP trade agreement. Meanwhile, in 2015-2016, China led the opening of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and lent almost 2 billion in 2016 alone. (I joke that America's war against terrorism isn't over, but SE Asia has already won. I realize it's not a very funny joke.) 

What does this mean for you? If you're part of ASEAN, when you travel to another member country, you will generally have your own separate check-in line and almost all major businesses and tourism operators will cater to you in your own language. This phenomenon is most pronounced in the Philippines with Korean tourists, but as Chinese tourists become more common (as opposed to their younger Japanese counterparts, who seem to prefer long-term travel via student visas), all countries are starting to cater to each other's languages and tastes. The days when people mocked Japanese tourists taking too many photos are thankfully over. Everyone today wants a piece of the tourism pie. 

(People like me, who avoid packaged tours and travel frugally, don't maximize revenue for countries, so we're left to fend for ourselves against hucksters, especially in the taxicab department. As a result, it's hard for me to suppress my desire to assault anyone criticizing Uber or Grab, both of which increase transparency and safety for international travelers.) 

5. Conclusion 

As more people learn about Brunei's hospitality, it will become more popular. For now, it's a pleasant, safe place to stay for two or three nights, especially on your way to KL or Indonesia. Don't miss seeing the Omar Ali Saifuddien Mosque at night, the Jame' Asr Mosque, and the Royal Regalia museum. Kampong Ayer is much-mentioned on tourist sites promoting Brunei, but I suspect the hype has to do with a unique hotel there called Kunyit7 Lodge rather than the place itself.

No idea why this area is popular with tourists.

My favorite place, after the Jame'Asr Mosque and Royal Regalia museum, isn't on the official walking tour map, but it should be: the Brunei History Centre. You shouldn't miss it if you want to learn more about Brunei's history. 

Happy travels!