Coming Back to America (2019)

Whenever I return from a long overseas trip, I try to share my thoughts about re-integration. My most recent trip around the world took about ten months, and I've been in the States about 10 days so far. 

1. When I was in SE Asia, especially the Philippines, I complained economic development revolved around shopping malls. Well, investors repeat what worked in the past, regardless of geography, and in the one week I've been in California, my life has revolved around shopping malls. Sigh. 

2. Retail differentiation is becoming nonexistent, causing more consumers to buy online--and countries more willing to demand tariffs against foreign competition. I went on a shopping spree yesterday, buying a new pair of shoes, two jackets, and a pair of casual pants. I didn't need any of them, but at 50% to 70% off at the local outlet mall, the entire experience set me back less than 100 USD.  

In the process of shopping, I realized every single clothing retailer had copied everyone else. Eddie Bauer, like Nike, makes DriFit shirts. Columbia's jackets, like Eddie Bauer's, have a side zipper pocket in the same breast area. For me, the main reason to choose one item over another came down to sizing, especially around the shoulders. Even in one store, a double XL would fit differently--Puma and North Face products seem to be the most inconsistent--and I continue to buy clothing and shoes made in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Jordan, or Indonesia whenever possible. Oddly enough, consumers don't seem to realize manufacturing location matters a great deal. 

After I wrote this post, I saw a unique retail item at Portland, OR-based KEEN.
It's a private company w/ 200m-300m in annual sales.

3. I had purchased many items online while traveling and was expecting outsized temporary happiness when I returned to my pile of self-bought gifts. Unfortunately, the pile of mail waiting me caught my attention first, and I haven't had a chance to get to all the items I bought in an attempt to self-compensate for missing X-Mas, my birthday, etc. 

Interestingly, I've already begun using the items I bought yesterday, indicating the mall experience could compete with online retailers if unique products are offered at competitive prices. The psychological allure of instant gratification isn't going away anytime soon, so once physical retailers become more lean, an equilibrium will be reached between the virtual and the physical--assuming brick and mortar stores prioritize customer service. 

4. America's most noticeable advantages over other countries are its environment and convenience. Pollution is much lower than most other countries. (Even highly developed Singapore has issues due to its proximity to Indonesia's active volcanoes.) As long as an American is in a major city, drinking tap water won't be risky. Traffic may be busy during peak hours, but for the most part, the flow is remarkably smooth. I can't tell you how lovely it is to know I can walk anywhere for as many weeks as I want without developing a cough--even though walking in most major American cities is uncommon because city planners and car lobbies (think: sales taxes) prioritize cars. 

As for convenience, Americans have too many options, and they're all easy to reach. In Guanajuato city, Mexico, a mountainous area, I had to walk up and down one block at a 70 degree angle just to get groceries--and that doesn't include the two flights of stairs installed to make it easier for locals to reach the main street. I actually enjoyed the experience, but I'd often return to my Airbnb only to realize some of the products I had bought had expired, especially the yoghurt. The rougher terrain makes it harder for regular deliveries and also for store/tienda owners to make a profit. 

Additionally, the lack of zoning or self-imposed owner restrictions sometimes meant two small grocery stores on the same small street often sold the same products. Lest you think competition would be more cutthroat, both employees would happily refer me to the other store if they didn't have a product (my favorite brand of milk is Groupo Lala, but another brand, Alpura, seems to do a better job in some neighborhoods). Incentives for honest service increase when the same employee sees the same customers regularly.  

5. History is easier to absorb in other countries because it's all around you. Most people realize that after WWII, the American government was able to impose its policies and processes in other countries, most notably Japan and Germany; however, even before then, borders were ill-defined and countries, especially in Europe, were seeking to expand. Such expansion efforts often caused more powerful countries to run roughshod over smaller ones, in ways Americans and Europeans never learn.  

Averell "Ace" Smith, in Commonwealth Club Magazine

From National Geographic (2019), on El Salvador

Seeing cannons in Cuba near the water helps one realize the importance of naval power--at least until the invention of fighter jets. Seeing forts in Lisbon and Scotland leads to an appreciation of military strategies and the reasons behind extended conflicts, especially if retreating to Northern Africa to regroup was possible. Touring the former Ford Factory in Singapore teaches us civilians are always targeted in invasions and wars, regardless of the countries or groups involved. And so it goes. 

In Singapore. Now a museum.

6. I have to cut this short because I have a job interview in 20 minutes... in a shopping mall. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2019)

Bonus I: an apt summary of America, from an El Salvadorean immigrant: "Life is cold here, but there is opportunity, and so we must endure." 

From National Geographic (2019)

At least there's free WiFi. 

Bonus II: when returning from any extended trip overseas, it's helpful to double-check several important dates: 

1. Your driver's license. In California, we're supposed to receive notice of automatic renewal (if eligible) two months before the expiration date, but it may be easier to study the written test and take it earlier. 

2. Your passport renewal date. 

3. Your insurance policies. You can typically renew online. 

4. Your credit and debit cards. If you order new cards, be sure to update all the apps and services (Uber, iCloud, etc.). 

5. Your tax filing date(s). You can file for an extension but I always try to finish before the official deadline. 

6. If you have investments, it's a good time to check all your accounts. 

7. Do you have any professional licenses? If so, check to see if you've caught up on all the requirements, including continuing education (CLE, fingerprinting, etc.). 

8. You're usually entitled to one free annual checkup every year, though lab tests may cost extra. If you haven't gotten one in the last year, consider making an appointment.

It took exactly 3 weeks before I felt like I'd caught up on everything, so give yourself as much time as possible before starting a new job. 

Venture Capital Panel on Robotics (Silicon Valley)

I attended a Silicon Valley panel discussion on robotics this evening, and I thought I'd share a summary of the experience. 

Food and drinks were available

Rob Lau of "Idea to IPO" (idea-to-ipo.com) opened the seminar by introducing several of the group's members, including Albert Qian of Albert's List. One entrepreneur, Ali, discussed autonomous tutors available 24/7 capable of answering questions immediately. Another member talked about a geolocation service without satellite communication called No GPS. 

Rob provided a quick mission statement. He acknowledged many entrepreneurs are struggling financially, so he ensures his events are affordable to all. His aim is value for our time, which he called our most valuable asset. His group's global mission is to democratize entrepreneurship, and he referred the audience to his YouTube channel.

I was impressed with Tim Jeghers, the event's videographer. He seemed diligent without being obtrusive. 

Eric Hanson of the nationally-recognized WilmerHale law firm moderated, and he did an excellent job, following up when answers were not clear. 

I've been a huge fan of WilmerHale ever since Attorney Seth Waxman's oral arguments before the Supreme Court, and I was pleased to be able to visit one of the law firm's offices, even though Mr. Waxman works out of D.C., not Palo Alto. 

All the panelists were interesting, but I enjoyed Elana Lian's comments the most. 

Below is a heavily paraphrased summary of each speaker's comments, which attempts to capture the gist of their opinions. 

Elana Lian: I’m with Intel Capital, and I focus on AI and robotics. Opportunity is everywhere. We focus on the B-to-B side. We bring computer vision and the AI to the processing unit, a complex undertaking due to factors like data analysis and different operating systems. One example [of this fusion] is the company Bossa Nova, which makes a robot that scans shelves and QR codes in the retail industry. That involves scanning (robot vision), movement/navigation, and processing.

I agree in the long term, other jobs will replace the ones eliminated by technology, but in the meantime, people recognize short-term challenges, including in media such as Black Mirror.

One of the most critical things is to talk to the end user.

Just because you’re solving a really cool problem doesn’t mean someone will buy it. [My favorite quote of the night.] 

Kelly Chen: I’ve always been interested in the quantitative side. I have an engineering background as well as an MBA. We think about logistics--everything from shipping to packing. I’m optimistic about this space, because due to software and reinforcement learning, we can do things in weeks today that took one full year in 2012. 'Reinforcement learning" is how the robot learns, i.e., the robot uses probabilistic models similar to the human brain rather than machine learning, which doesn’t allow the robot to perform tasks it hasn’t seen before. 

We are also involved in autonomous long-haul trucking. We’re excited about what this technology can do for the labor market, because few people want to do long-haul trucking, such as deliveries from the East coast to the West coast. With new technology, however, drivers can stay closer to home, see their families more often, and focus on handling "last mile" issues. 

National Geographic, 08.2018

We invest on the enterprise side, and enterprises make decisions based on concrete factors. When selling to consumers, it’s more emotional, more based on sentiment. From an investment approach, we tend to be cautious. If you have a demo that works in the lab, it doesn’t mean it will work in the wild. 

I think GDPR and data privacy are important, but a security failure in an autonomous vehicle is much more dangerous than a data breach. 

Brandon Reeves: I’m an early stage investor. How do you reinvent a new cycle in an established business? In the short term, there will be job displacement because of technology, but if the Industrial Revolution is any indication, more jobs will be created in the long-term (10, 20, and 50 years from now). 

From a funding perspective, with consumer robotics, the difficulty is that investors want a market to already exist, while innovators often look ahead to fulfilling a demand that doesn’t yet exist. In terms of what consumers will accept, a lot of it comes from the DNA of a company rather than the product itself. We ask, “Do consumers trust the company?” [Rather than, “Do consumers trust the product?”] 

I’m very against co-working spaces at the early stages [of a company or idea]. 

Re: job displacement, I don’t believe in UBI—I tend to focus on opportunity and retraining. I also think UBI is against immigrants, because it makes it harder from a policy perspective to increase immigration. I believe immigration has been responsible for America's success, and I don't want to support a policy that will reduce it. The way to increase wages is through productivity growth, and you get productivity growth through technology. I do worry some jobs will eventually experience so much productivity growth, they’ll no longer need human beings, but I’m not sure we can predict the exact timeline. 

20% of America's GDP is healthcare or healthcare-related. 

Re: a robot tax to mitigate job losses, in general, you don’t want to levy a tax that hurts innovation in the short term, but the long term is different.

Nuno Goncalves Pedro: I’m a VC investing in next generation applications focused on the consumer. Our time horizon is five to ten years, preferably five to seven years. 

We don’t believe in the idea that robots need to be anthropomorphic. A doorbell or an ATM is also a small robot, but for some reason, people will trust a human-looking robot more than a doorbell or an ATM. Why don’t we have ATMs that look like human beings dispensing money? It’s different selling to consumers than to businesses, but the patterns in usage between businesses and individuals are becoming similar. We’re in the midst of a big shift.

There’s an entrenched supply chain that makes it hard for newcomers to break through, but even these entrenched systems are missing pieces. At the same time, if I’m GM or another OEM, why not own my software? Why rely on third parties just because that’s the way the supply chain is set up? 

There’s a war for the home going on right now. Amazon, Google, Apple are all vying for the home. Facebook tried and failed. 

From an ethics perspective, unfortunately, I do think ethics is in the hands of engineers, and engineers aren’t meant to be thinking about ethics. They’re meant to think about algos and functions. Meanwhile, most CEOs do not know what their engineers are doing, so there’s a gap between technical implementations and business leadership.