Kazakhstan: Steady So Far with a Future as Vast as Space

Imagine Singapore, if Singapore had natural resources and was one of the largest countries in the world. Kazakhstan, where I spent two weeks watching the World Wrestling Championships, is only 27 years old. Tajiks, Kyrgyz, Uzbeks, Russians, and Kazakhs blend in seamlessly, and the British have considerable influence. Its capital was renamed five times in the last 60 years: Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, Aqmola, Astana, and now Nur-Sultan. Along the way, the capital moved from Almaty--bordering China and Kyrgyzstan in the southeast--closer to Russia in the north. 

Within historical context, Kazakhstan's rise from Soviet vassal to independent modern state is miraculous--if only because potential pitfalls were so numerous. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, many countries were left on their own. One of these countries was Kazakhstan, the world's ninth largest. Into the void came the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which invested nearly 9.1 billion USD since 1991. Today, it's clear who has the most influence: the EU, Russia, and China. 

Look at the flags displayed outside a NurSultan strip mall.

One may want to remind increasingly nationalistic Western voters these global investments were prudent because they helped increase worldwide supplies of Kazakhstan's uranium, oil, natural gas, and tin--while giving foreign powers the ability to influence political affairs in mutually beneficial ways. In Nur-Sultan, a Huawei building towers over pristine asphalt roads containing Russia's old Lada cars as well as brand-new Toyotas, a testament to steady global investments that promoted free trade while avoiding enemies. (Kazakhstan does business with both Iran and Israel.) 

Nur-Sultan is named after Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazahkstan's president from April 1990 until March 2019 and former member of the Communist Party. Many English language articles allege corruption, but do not provide relevant background. First, as a member of a single party governance system focused on GDP growth--which he delivered--the assumption was any opposition group formed during the Cold War would be funded by foreign powers. (Given the CIA's track record, this assumption was not without merit.) Second, most of the allegations concern activities designed to circumvent the United States' arbitrary political preferences, including regarding Iran. (Unlike the United States, Kazakhstan has no enemies, so one could argue its multi-vector foreign policy, which emphasizes good relations with other states while balancing Chinese and Russian influence, has been successful.)

Above all, Nazarbayev doesn't get the credit he deserves for advancing Kazakhstan from a country with the world's fourth-largest stockpile of nuclear weapons to a model for de-proliferation. 

It's true Kazakhstan's most valuable company is KazAtomProm, a nuclear company, but its privatization has provided checks and balances without sacrificing nuclear energy and knowledge--knowledge that came with tragic consequences. The Soviets conducted over 500 military experiments with nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan, mostly at the Semipalatinsk Test Site, causing radiation sickness and birth defects. It was Nazarbayev who closed the Semipalatinsk Test Site and who subsequently gave Kazakhstan so much credibility in nuclear affairs that it held international talks in Almaty as part of worldwide efforts to encourage Iran to pursue a similarly peaceful nuclear energy model. In addition to nuclear weapons, the Soviets left a legacy of space exploration, now in the form of KazCosmos, Kazakhstan's more complicated version of NASA. In short, any way you view the country's development, the number of drastic failures that could have occurred during the transition of a left-behind nuclear and space-ready country into a respected member of the United Nations were vast, leaving little margin for error. For that reason alone, it's hard to criticize Kazakhstan, though Human Rights Watch has no such qualms, reporting, "There was no meaningful improvement to Kazakhstan’s poor human rights record in 2018." 

A few casual observations are in order: Russian and Kazakh are the most common languages, and in larger cities, most people can speak at least a bit of both. A blend of Mongolian and Russian have created a striking hybrid of white-colored faces and Asiatic eyes, made even more eye-catching when locals bleach their hair blond or wear blue contacts. As for the physical landscape, it's all new. Think of it as the "Las Vegas development model": you have land in the middle of nowhere, a relatively small population, and no restraints on what or how you can build. One result is uniquely-designed buildings, but I was most impressed with the overall layout. 

Inside a shopping mall.

Outside the shopping mall.

You can see architects had a single plan for the city center, creating angles where prominent buildings could be viewed inside arches of nearby places. Throw in old-time Las Vegas neon lights, and NurSultan starts to look like a place that's co-opted the mafia and provided plenty of space for everyone to play nice--for now. 

Russian Church.
I tried to buy a St. Christopher card but they didn't have any.

Hazrat Sultan Mosque

Will Kazakhstan's steady development continue in peaceful and sustainable ways? According to The Astana Times, "'The share of non-oil revenues is growing steadily from 61.4% [in 2019] to 71.2% in 2022,'" a good sign. At the same time, "the number of civil servants and employees in national [government-owned] companies will be reduced 25% [from] 2020-2024," a predictable cause of grievances, even if necessary; in "2018, government procurement totaled 4.4 trillion tenge [almost 63 billion USD], 75% of which were carried out in a non-competitive way through purchases from one source"; and "the number of targeted social assistance [welfare] recipients [grew] from approximately 77,000 to more than 1.4 million in five years... [and] spending on social support has increased 17 times since 2017." In addition to the above issues, respecting different ethnic groups while enforcing primary use of an uncommon language, Kazakh, may prove difficult. Ultimately, like space, Kazakhstan's sheer vastness provides hope--as well as growing pains--assuming the country is able to maintain its balancing act. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2019)

Bonus: Kazakhstan's museums had a wide gap regarding two major historical events: 1) the famine of 1932-34, which apparently wiped out one-third of its population due to the Soviet Union's forced farming collectivization (an action Nikita Khrushchev criticized in his 1963 book, Khrushchev Speaks); and 2) several waves of forced deportations into Kazakhstan by the Soviet Union, especially from Ukraine. The latter is interesting because it could help establish a historical narrative of Kazakhstan as a country of involuntary refugees, providing a more tolerant basis for future immigration. 

Update: unrest and rioting in January 2022 caught many by surprise, but the result of reducing welfare benefits while increasing everyday costs, including fuel, seems predictable. The world wants to shun petroleum-based output but is unready to implement climate-friendly technology on a mass scale. Until the gap between promise and reality is bridged, many governments--not just Kazakhstan--face challenges modernizing their economies while preserving social stability. 

Manila's Chinatown, Where Chinese and German Immigrants Intersected

I am a pessimist by nature, but good coffee—the world’s most traded commodity after oil—always cheers me up. To get a cup of coffee from farm/mountain to your mouth requires navigating diverse worlds of marketers, supply chains, bankers, and laws. Because the profit margins are great, cafés can become linchpins of revitalized communities and workspaces. 

I’m in Manila’s Chinatown, in a building once inhabited by German immigrants Ernest and Alfred Berg, who arrived in Manila around 1922 looking for better opportunities post-WWI. Within the Berg building was Cosmos Bazar, founded in 1926 and owned by a Chinese immigrant, Mr. Lim. Mr. Lim eventually sold his store to a Fujian, Chinese immigrant named Mr. Sy, and the full story is equal parts tragedy and fairytale. 

As a teenager, SY Lian Teng changed his name on a ship's manifest to “Ong Tico” to immigrate to the Philippines, working for his father in a sari sari shop. Preternaturally ambitious, he found an unpaid internship at Mr. Lim’s Cosmos Bazar for two years, increasing his business skills. After seeing Mr. Sy’s diligence, Mr. Lim offered the store to him when Mr. Sy was just 20 years old. 

In 1930, at the age of 24, Mr. Sy married LEE Siok Keng. By 1945, however, WWII bombings and fires destroyed the store and killed 8 of his 9 children and his wife. After 4 years of mental recovery back in China, in 1949, he returned to Manila, re-opened his store, and married a Filipina, Emerenciana Antonio Soyangco. They had four children. In 1951, he bought the Berg Department Store from Ernest Berg. A letter to one of his grandchildren carefully reminds his heir that family is more important than money. 

Today, “The Den” coffeeshop is located in Mr. Sy’s and Mr. Berg’s building. It sells the Philippines’ best coffeebeans, from Kalsada Coffee. Cosmo Bazar is nearby and sells only Pilot pens and pencils. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2019)

Bonus, from Fannie Tan Koa’s article: “‘I believe that 85% of Manila was destroyed by the Americans, not by the Japanese...’ ‘They [the Americans] wouldn’t stop bombing the city... to kill the Japanese [occupiers]...’ ‘But the Japanese have retreated; they are no longer here...’ ‘They answered, ‘Sorry, General MacArthur’s orders!’”

Interview with Alain, Belgian Expat

As soon as Indonesia is like Europe, I move. If it becomes, “Life is a big competition, you have to be number one,” I move.

Alain van den Bossche, a gregarious Belgian, owns one of Jepara’s newest resorts, a 16-villa resort named Coconut Lodge steps away from Coconut Beach. Interestingly, his name contains the term ‘bos,” meaning “wood” in Dutch. Impressed with the construction—much of it with local wood—and details of his resort, I had the opportunity to talk with Alain, who speaks Indonesian, French, English, and some Flemish.

Q: This is one of the best-designed hotels I’ve seen. You’re also in the furniture business, a common profession in Jepara because of its well-regarded woodworking reputation, but how did you learn design? Almost all the details are perfect here. For example, the straw I’m using is bamboo, not paper (which interferes with taste) or metal (which rusts). The song playlist features beautiful Spanish songs I’ve never heard before, like Alma Corazón y Vida by Los Panchos and Azúcar Amargo by Fey.

Alain: I do it myself, by traveling, by seeing different countries, combining everything, mixing it all together, [and] trying to make something look the way I want. I want to make this place feel like home. It’s not important to make something big. Most places [in Indonesia] are more like a market. They call it in Indonesia, the “target,” [but] I don’t really care about [business] targets. Number 1, be happy, enjoy, and if you make a little bit of money, it’s good. I’m already 51 [years old], the train is already passing. If I want to be a millionaire, it’s too late.

Q: You had mentioned construction to me. Were you a subcontractor or foreman in Belgium?

A: I wanted to be an actor, but I was a teacher for mentally disabled people like [you see] in the Special Olympics. I re-made a very old home [using my time] every weekend and on my holidays, but I left Europe without sleeping a single night in the house. I was supposed to get married, but my father had just passed away. She [my ex-fiancée] didn’t want to wait a few months. [Instead of re-scheduling,] She canceled the wedding a month before… she was Italian. [Alain throws his hands in the air to communicate he should have known the result.]

I took my rucksack, put my house on the market, told the agent just to get me my costs back—it actually sold much higher than I expected but I let him keep the difference--and I was free. I spent a year traveling, went to Bali, where I made friends with an English guy who advised me to go into the furniture business. By then, I had not much money left, and although I had a ticket to Australia, I threw the ticket away, stayed in Bali, and went into furniture import-export. [Back then,] I used to sell on the flea market, too. I would go to Europe once a month, pick up quality items [from the trash], refurbish, and sell. I opened a shop in Belgium doing import/export, then I came back to Jepara, made my first small company with my then-girlfriend. We rented a small place for three years. It was really tough that time. That was 24 years ago.

Q: 24 years?

A: Yes, 24 years ago.

Q: You mentioned the [property] foundation to me earlier. Can you tell me more about your strategy in achieving stability while being so close to the beach?

A: River stones are the best for foundation. Take stones from the river, put them all the way around the property, fill it up with dirt, use a leveling system [Alain draws a three-pronged tool in the air resembling a self-leveling tool] every 4 meters, [and you] gotta do your pillars all the way around the full space.

Q: Why did you choose this location? It’s a bit isolated and far from the town centre.

A: This is my fourth [constructed] property in Jepara. I like the social life, [but] I also like my privacy, privacy here is like having gold. If you have a house in the village, someone will knock on your door all the time [to make social visits]. In Europe, [if you want to be alone] you go to the back portion of your home, but here, four guests will come [to say hello], and when they leave, another four [neighbors] come. The reason [I chose this location] is [for the] quiet. You have rice fields and the ocean.

[Indonesian businesses] like to be near the road… the beach idea is only the last 10 years. Before, [Indonesians] wanted to go to the mountains. They didn’t want to get sunburned, they enjoyed the cooler weather, but tendencies are changing. [Local] Movie stars are getting tanned and influencing others to enjoy the beach. [And] Indonesia is booming completely. Middle class is exploding. 20 years ago, the only thing you saw were foreigners or government or criminals but now you see young entrepreneurs. 20 years ago, it was just business hotels. But you look on Instagram now, they [young Indonesians and Europeans] go everywhere [and as a result, businesses are diversifying].

We have a saying in Belgium: “Belgian people have a brick in their stomach.” [Editor’s note: the exact phrase in English is, “Every Belgian is born with a brick in the stomach.” It means every Belgian wants to build their own house.] In Europe [today], no one [young] wants to take [mortgage] credit for 20, 25 years [anymore]. They want to travel. [In my case,] I met the right person at the right moment, it’s all luck. I always say, “I’m the luckiest guy on the planet.” If I could, I’d give some of my luck to other people.

Q: How do you motivate your employees?

A: I try by explaining to them [how things should be, instead of giving orders.] I also give them attractive salary, about 50% above minimum salary. Here, minimum wage is about 1.8 million [rupiahs] monthly. I give them 2.5 million [rupiahs], [and] I would like to give them more. I tell them, if you can take the stress off my shoulder, then I’ll pay more. I want to sell this place and build another one with no debt.

Q: Did you get a euro-denominated loan or one from a local bank?

A: We got a local loan, [equivalent to] 100,000 euros loan in rupiahs. I owe about 1,000 USD a month for 20 years. I think it’s about 10% [annual] interest. You know, foreigners cannot buy property here, they can only buy through a local [Indonesian citizen] or a company. I already have a furniture company but I don’t want to mix it [so I have an arrangement with a local]. I live all the way in the back on this property. [10% interest sounds high] But here, savings deposits pay out 7% net [interest] in your pocket. If you bargain, you might even get 8%. [For me] it’s all about the rupiahs because I live in rupiahs. I sell in euros, but I live in rupiahs [so currency fluctuations don’t impact me as much].

Q: What was the banking experience like?

A: [Because it’s through a local] They base the loan on the manager’s salary, not on the project. They are thinking that the loan amount should be based on money the manager will receive each month. If it’s through a company, it’s different. [Since we didn’t go through a company] We opened as a homestay, [and the local] used a personal tax number to pay the tax.

[When I first came here 24 years ago,] you needed 200,000 euros in the bank or something like that to get a loan. So what the banks did, they would loan you the 200,000 for a day or a week, get a notary to certify the amount [in your account], and collect a 500 USD fee for the “service.” Now, of course, it’s stricter. [President] Jokowi is very good for people who want to invest. Compared to the old days, you can do a lot online now because of Jokowi, and you can even get your visa online. 24 years ago, it was the “Wild West” here. At that time, it was, “Give a little [money] on the left side and the right side [to get things done],” but that time is over.

Q: Most Westerners don’t know much about Indonesia. What made you choose this country over others in the entire world, including your native Belgium?

A: I fell in love. When I arrived in Medan [Sumatera], I fell in love. In Europe, people only complain. I like to talk, I like to have a lot of friends. I know people everywhere, rich, poor. You can mix here with all types of people.

Q: What have been the challenges for you, as an outsider, opening a business in Jepara? Has it been easier or harder being in a small town rather than big city like Jakarta or Semarang?

A: I arrived here as a backpacker. I don’t have the mentality of a businessman. I know other people who have the fiber of business in them, but they’re struggling. This is really funny in life. The more you run after it, the more difficult it is to achieve it. It [the better path] is actually, “Take it easy, don’t have too much big plan, [then] everything goes smoothly.” I’ve been lucky to meet the right people and to be in the right spots, but it hasn’t always been smooth. In the beginning, some locals were angry I was paying higher salaries. I had people coming after me with tire irons. Some people are still angry foreigners are paying better salaries because foreigners are able to sell in Europe and get higher prices. I think they should be happy [about the higher salaries] but it’s not that way.

Q: How did you get your contacts in shipping and import/export?

A: I was a real tourist—I didn’t even know about emails. My French friend told me about import/export in a bar in Bali. It’s really easy. You need an agent. The agent does everything for you. Most of my customers are in Belgium, including my brother [so I already have contacts in Belgium]. I’ve changed agents a few times [but the key is to find a good import/export agent].

Q: What advice can you give to Westerners who want to fit into Indonesian society?

A:  First, don’t try to make the people [here] understand your way of things. Try to find a middle way. You have to make the effort. You have to adapt, and locals have to adapt. Don’t expect people to adapt 100%. You will learn a lot, and they will learn your personal professional standards. They have a saying here: “Alon alon asal klakon.” It means, “Going slow is not a problem--you will still get there.” A bit like the old [Aesop] story of the rabbit and the tortoise. In Europe, they teach kids they have to have a lot of ambition, they have to be perfect. But in Indonesia, people seem to ask themselves, “What do you really want in life?” What is more important than having friends and being able to sit and have a coffee? But this [attitude] will change because of us [Westerners] bringing our culture here. But I’ve always said, as soon as Indonesia is like Europe, I move. If it becomes, “Life is a big competition, you have to be number one,” I move [someplace else].

Q: At the same time, you’re obviously competitive, and you have a strong desire to compete well. Where does that come from? Did you play professional or semi-professional sports?

A: I play sports and I love sports. I play futsal and football/soccer. Indonesians would tell me, “It is more important to sweat than to win,” but I told them, “The most important [goal] is to win.” They’d respond, “We sweat, that’s good already.” My workers, now they play, they go 1,000%, I like that. Age makes you change. Before I was like a piece of fire. But now… this place, I want to make sure everyone happy. It’s “ramah” [strictly translated, it means “friendliness”], it’s the reason everyone likes Indonesia, because of the politeness. If they lose that, it’s like losing the thing that makes you different. I want to see that ramah thing here [at the resort.]

Q: What do you think of President Joko Widodo's idea to move the capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan?

A: I would have a better idea. Jakarta is so crowded [and that’s the reason for the move]. Right away, I would fix a minimum salary for all of Indonesia. Big cities give a higher [minimum] salary than villages. That’s why you have so much movement, where people go to Jakarta to find opportunities. We have a lot of broken homes because of that, because of men leaving their hometowns to work in Jakarta. Reduce Jakarta salary [to bring it in line with an appropriate national minimum wage], shift workers to Semarang [and other cities], and people would say, “Why should I go to Jakarta?” Then migration to other cities would increase [thereby reducing pressure on Jakarta’s infrastructure]. He [President Jokowi] wants to move [the capital] because it’s too crowded in Jakarta, so it’s difficult to find water resources [and other problems arise because of overpopulation in one place]. Life in Jakarta is expensive, but of course it’s because salaries are expensive. But if you change from 5 million [rupiah] to 2.5 million a month…

[Interview held on August 29, 2019 in Jepara at Coconut Lodge. Transcript above has been condensed/modified from original conversation. No compensation, directly or indirectly, was received or due for this interview as of August 2019.] 

Update/Correction on September 2, 2019: Alain informed me today he was the one who broke off the wedding: [paraphrased] "She did not want to move the date [after my father's death], and she demanded I move forward or cancel. She did not expect I would choose to cancel when she gave me the ultimatum."

Coming Back to America (2019)

Whenever I return from a long overseas trip, I try to share my thoughts about re-integration. My most recent trip around the world took about ten months, and I've been in the States about 10 days so far. 

1. When I was in SE Asia, especially the Philippines, I complained economic development revolved around shopping malls. Well, investors repeat what worked in the past, regardless of geography, and in the one week I've been in California, my life has revolved around shopping malls. Sigh. 

2. Retail differentiation is becoming nonexistent, causing more consumers to buy online--and countries more willing to demand tariffs against foreign competition. I went on a shopping spree yesterday, buying a new pair of shoes, two jackets, and a pair of casual pants. I didn't need any of them, but at 50% to 70% off at the local outlet mall, the entire experience set me back less than 100 USD.  

In the process of shopping, I realized every single clothing retailer had copied everyone else. Eddie Bauer, like Nike, makes DriFit shirts. Columbia's jackets, like Eddie Bauer's, have a side zipper pocket in the same breast area. For me, the main reason to choose one item over another came down to sizing, especially around the shoulders. Even in one store, a double XL would fit differently--Puma and North Face products seem to be the most inconsistent--and I continue to buy clothing and shoes made in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Jordan, or Indonesia whenever possible. Oddly enough, consumers don't seem to realize manufacturing location matters a great deal. 

After I wrote this post, I saw a unique retail item at Portland, OR-based KEEN.
It's a private company w/ 200m-300m in annual sales.

3. I had purchased many items online while traveling and was expecting outsized temporary happiness when I returned to my pile of self-bought gifts. Unfortunately, the pile of mail waiting me caught my attention first, and I haven't had a chance to get to all the items I bought in an attempt to self-compensate for missing X-Mas, my birthday, etc. 

Interestingly, I've already begun using the items I bought yesterday, indicating the mall experience could compete with online retailers if unique products are offered at competitive prices. The psychological allure of instant gratification isn't going away anytime soon, so once physical retailers become more lean, an equilibrium will be reached between the virtual and the physical--assuming brick and mortar stores prioritize customer service. 

4. America's most noticeable advantages over other countries are its environment and convenience. Pollution is much lower than most other countries. (Even highly developed Singapore has issues due to its proximity to Indonesia's active volcanoes.) As long as an American is in a major city, drinking tap water won't be risky. Traffic may be busy during peak hours, but for the most part, the flow is remarkably smooth. I can't tell you how lovely it is to know I can walk anywhere for as many weeks as I want without developing a cough--even though walking in most major American cities is uncommon because city planners and car lobbies (think: sales taxes) prioritize cars. 

As for convenience, Americans have too many options, and they're all easy to reach. In Guanajuato city, Mexico, a mountainous area, I had to walk up and down one block at a 70 degree angle just to get groceries--and that doesn't include the two flights of stairs installed to make it easier for locals to reach the main street. I actually enjoyed the experience, but I'd often return to my Airbnb only to realize some of the products I had bought had expired, especially the yoghurt. The rougher terrain makes it harder for regular deliveries and also for store/tienda owners to make a profit. 

Additionally, the lack of zoning or self-imposed owner restrictions sometimes meant two small grocery stores on the same small street often sold the same products. Lest you think competition would be more cutthroat, both employees would happily refer me to the other store if they didn't have a product (my favorite brand of milk is Groupo Lala, but another brand, Alpura, seems to do a better job in some neighborhoods). Incentives for honest service increase when the same employee sees the same customers regularly.  

5. History is easier to absorb in other countries because it's all around you. Most people realize that after WWII, the American government was able to impose its policies and processes in other countries, most notably Japan and Germany; however, even before then, borders were ill-defined and countries, especially in Europe, were seeking to expand. Such expansion efforts often caused more powerful countries to run roughshod over smaller ones, in ways Americans and Europeans never learn.  

Averell "Ace" Smith, in Commonwealth Club Magazine

From National Geographic (2019), on El Salvador

Seeing cannons in Cuba near the water helps one realize the importance of naval power--at least until the invention of fighter jets. Seeing forts in Lisbon and Scotland leads to an appreciation of military strategies and the reasons behind extended conflicts, especially if retreating to Northern Africa to regroup was possible. Touring the former Ford Factory in Singapore teaches us civilians are always targeted in invasions and wars, regardless of the countries or groups involved. And so it goes. 

In Singapore. Now a museum.

6. I have to cut this short because I have a job interview in 20 minutes... in a shopping mall. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2019)

Bonus I: an apt summary of America, from an El Salvadorean immigrant: "Life is cold here, but there is opportunity, and so we must endure." 

From National Geographic (2019)

At least there's free WiFi. 

Bonus II: when returning from any extended trip overseas, it's helpful to double-check several important dates: 

1. Your driver's license. In California, we're supposed to receive notice of automatic renewal (if eligible) two months before the expiration date, but it may be easier to study the written test and take it earlier. 

2. Your passport renewal date. 

3. Your insurance policies. You can typically renew online. 

4. Your credit and debit cards. If you order new cards, be sure to update all the apps and services (Uber, iCloud, etc.). 

5. Your tax filing date(s). You can file for an extension but I always try to finish before the official deadline. 

6. If you have investments, it's a good time to check all your accounts. 

7. Do you have any professional licenses? If so, check to see if you've caught up on all the requirements, including continuing education (CLE, fingerprinting, etc.). 

8. You're usually entitled to one free annual checkup every year, though lab tests may cost extra. If you haven't gotten one in the last year, consider making an appointment.

It took exactly 3 weeks before I felt like I'd caught up on everything, so give yourself as much time as possible before starting a new job. 

Random Travel Observations, Part 1 (2019)

1. If you want to understand the world, ascertain the top three traded commodities, then track all changes from sourcing to retail. Today, the top two physical commodities are oil and coffee beans. (The most valuable commodity is invisible--it's your data--but that's another topic.) 

I've noticed most independent or mid-sized coffeeshops, even chains, are mixing beans from all over the world. A cup of coffee from all but the major retail outlets will most likely contain beans from several different regions. This seems odd, because supply chains have improved dramatically over the last thirty years. 

Then I realized supply chains--epitomized by Amazon, which progressed from simple books to multibillion-dollar sales of everything--aren't the problem. Buyers no longer trust political (tariffs) or weather conditions to provide them with consistent supply year-round over long periods of time. 

Meanwhile, financial markets as well as insurance companies betray their deficiencies in assisting smaller businesses, whether through inaccessibility of simple hedging instruments (the complex ones are more profitable) and/or ineffective credit scores (non-existent in most countries, handicapping domestic insurance and banking industries). When I was in Indonesia, I noticed most coffee beans from come from Sumatra rather than the superior quality from Java, which brings me to my next observation... 

2. First mover advantage is longer lasting when buttressed by legal and financial markets. Developed economies have not yet figured out how to balance entrepreneurship with "lawfare," the practice of using legal systems to stymie or stall competitors, especially smaller ones. 

A disproportionate number of small or individually owned businesses in developing economies are food or drink-related, which makes you wonder whether legal and financial systems are truly effective anywhere. In Saigon, Vietnam, many houses are two-stories, and the bottom floor serves as a mini-restaurant in the evening. Either permits aren't required for such businesses, or enforcement must be lax. In short, despite Hernando de Soto's considerable scholarship on this issue, legal and financial systems continue to disfavor small businesses.

3. America's physical infrastructure is nonexistent compared to similarly developed countries, and Canada's and Mexico's aren't much better. America's post-WWII afterglow--and its status as the world's sole leader not once, but twice from 1945 to 1991--led to public safety budgeting being prioritized. This first mover advantage created a political establishment that remains firmly in control to this day--even though the advantages of a world led by a single superpower no longer apply with competition from an ascendant China, an ambitious Africa, a rising ASEAN, and a resurgent Russia. 

Indeed, the more one studies America's economy and compares it to other countries, the more one sees a country on an inexorably fascist path, where an ever-increasing police state requires greater private expansion, especially overseas, and in conjunction with the banking sector, both domestic and international, in order to maintain funding--and stability. 

Stability and trade are linked. One cannot travel without seeing American products, usually never discounted abroad due to their premium image. In some cases, such as my favorite travel brand Columbia Sportswear, the retail premium is justified. In most cases, however, what you wear, eat, and buy is dictated by a complex set of trade (and, by default, pricing/tariff) agreements entered into post-1945, with the expectation of international organizations such as the IMF and World Bank providing loans to developing countries in exchange for favorable corporate treatment. After 1995, the creation of the WTO and its rules added layers of legal complexity on top of existing financial complexity (currency fluctuations, shipping insurance, etc.), making global trade highly dependent on multinational banks and politically-connected law firms. 

With such complexity, one quickly sees why media and advertising--as well as selective censorship--are so integral to the U.S. and other developed economies. How does a company differentiate itself from competitors without a compelling story, preferably presented through compelling individuals? And how does one resist the temptation to resort to made-up stories when real life does not always follow a clean script? 

4. America's marketing machine allows more opportunities to feel special and to participate than most other nations. For example, I'm a freestyle and Olympic wrestling fan. There will almost always be some event somewhere in America I can attend, whether D1/D2/D3 college championships, world events, etc. America's ability to put on a show is closely linked to its ability to market its brands at a premium and to control which brands see the most eyeballs, both in the physical and digital realm. Such control is crucial to generating an adequate ROI on federal government outlays. 

Yet, in terms of products I specifically "buy American" when overseas, only two come to mind: Columbia Sportswear and Gillette razors. Most products are fungible, making consumer-led economies--and their debt loads--precarious if "free trade" actually existed. 

(Note: America also makes great hamburgers, pizza, and burritos, all of which are difficult to find outside North America. Mexico and Central/South America have great tacos but not burritos.) 

5. Overlapping jurisdictions in most Western countries no longer work the way they were intended; indeed, they create unnecessary complexity while failing to promote checks and balances. Smaller countries like Singapore and perhaps even Nordic countries have advantages over larger countries due to the ability to avoid negotiation with multiple non-governmental entrenched interests. Better and more comprehensive public transportation is one obvious result. 

6. Voters want all the benefits of immigration but none of its downsides. Such magic is impossible. You do not get a Nâdiya or Zidane without some "nonperforming assets." No banking or hedge fund manager--with the best analytical tools available--can claim 100% or even 80% success; yet, we expect immigration agencies to outperform the "masters of the universe."

The key, as with most endeavors, is whether the costs outweigh the benefits. Obviously, if slavery or colonialism is responsible for a positive outcome, the cost is too high once we take a long-term view. At the same time, such philosophical analyses are irrelevant for practical purposes because modern immigration and many other migration shifts are different in nature and require different modes of thinking. 

Nations dislike competition and are having difficulty developing both financial and human investments; along the way, somehow, institutional failures have been superimposed on individuals. In the end, the principle remains the same, with an addendum: "Am I my brother's keeper?" If not, how much effort and investment is required to reach a sustainable and proper paradigm? 

7. Having seen many paintings funded by the Catholic Church, it seems much religious language (harlots, affairs, sexual miracles, modesty, etc.) and subsequent imagery try to create an environment where human nature is balanced with a code of conduct. We call these attempts to create a sustainable civilization "the law," though in the past, the terms "morality" and "religion" were more popular. One reason the 20th and 21st centuries are so problematic is because the written law has become as ambiguous and unpredictable as abstract morality.  

Natasha Trethewey: Well, paintings, just like poems, have a lot to do with the historical moment in which they’re made. They reveal the material culture of a moment. They’re not only giving us a vision of some historical event, but also historicizing it within the moment of the work’s making. And so I’m drawn to them because I write a lot about history. I’m also just very visual myself.

In America, one can blame almost everyone for this result. Law schools, which charge excessive tuition, limiting both their applicant pools as well as their graduates' futures. Lawyers, who have been unable to accomplish anything transformative since September 11, 2001. Judges, most of whom do not read the papers submitted to them (they rely on law clerks), and who are often out of their depth due to limited or specialized experience in former careers. What to do? 

8. Governments have not realized the marketing teams required to boost their popularity and capture citizens' attention are becoming their downfall. A simplistic example would be governments advertising anti-diabetes and anti-sugar messages. Citizens and voters are not stupid. They know their governments could have spent marketing money renting a space with a gym available to the public, but marketing is a one-time cost/bill, whereas running a public space is an ongoing, unpredictable concern. Even so, in smaller or more rural Filipino cities, where it may be less common to own a television, basketball courts are built and named by aspiring or elected politicians. Despite the potential for graft, it is precisely these ongoing community projects that create a civilization worthy of admiration. Unfortunately, in developed countries, these same projects cannot deliver votes and political messages to a broad enough audience at election time compared to media's outreach. As such, marketing triumphs over common sense in most modern democratic countries, distorting elections and communities. 

When thinking of democratic systems in an increasingly digital world, I'm reminded of the adage that self-inflicted wounds often cause more damage than direct hits. Foreign governments and billionaires have already realized a strategy of promoting, then focusing on the most divisive or unrealistic voices (Glenn Beck, Ben Shapiro, Ocasio-Cortez, etc.) through advertising dollars (e.g., Cambridge Analytica) can be more effective than buying a next-generation fighter jet. 

9. It has always been the best of times and the worst of times. Economic development has occurred through capital deployment and exploitation of natural resources, whether foreign and domestic, both avenues being unequally distributed. For example, many developing countries rely on massive, upscale shopping malls to burnish their image but do not seem to care about slums three blocks away. 

In Jakarta, Indonesia, Grand Indonesia and another mega-mall are right next to each other, making traffic unbearable. I walked a short distance away from the malls and realized both houses and casual restaurants for locals--the ones who can't afford to shop at the malls--were right outside, making me re-evaluate my ideas on zoning, eminent domain, and development. 

Modern developed societies feel unhinged despite lacking such blatant incongruence because they cannot provide predictable outcomes even for residents willing to invest time and money in mainstream systems (higher education, a taxi medallion, etc.). In contrast, the life of a slum dweller a few blocks away from "progress" in the form of a new mall doesn't change much--his motorcycle can still weave through cars, and he may even have more opportunities for income in the informal market. 

10. Countries outside of the United States are allowing Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter to become de facto gateways and advertising platforms for their small businesses. Most countries will regret not countering such influence when they realize advertising dollars, as well as visibility for domestic residents and international travelers, are controlled by a foreign power. At the same time, without satellites to integrate GPS-tracking, it's unclear how developing countries can achieve similar platforms. (Open source?) 

11. We've all heard of the phrase, "For God and country," but it wasn't until I visited several Commonwealth churches that I understood the full meaning. Most churches in the U.K. have plaques and burial plots commemorating local stalwarts. In larger cities, there may even be an entire wall covered with names of locals who died in WWI and WWII. (Australians in particular seem to have suffered greatly relative to their small population.) 

In the olden days, your life revolved around your family and your local religious institution, which was the de facto community hub. Starbucks or another "third place" for networking did not exist. A man cast out from his church had no other place to go. 

Additionally, because many Western countries have been at war for much of modern existence, local economies from Quebec City (gun manufacturing) to Brisbane, Australia revolved around military expenditures, not unlike several American cities today. The bridges you see in other cities might have been built to accommodate transport of munitions, not passenger convenience. 

Much of social miasma today concerns a movement away from military-fueled economic expansion and religion as the community's binding agents. If we are stumbling, it is because we've yet to find anything large and stable enough to replace either pillar, despite the knowledge that both are becoming more fragile each passing day. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat

Morelia and Queretaro, Mexico

Two of Mexico's lesser-known cities are Queretaro and Morelia. In Queretaro's Plaza de Armas, I visited a building with Victor Cauduro Rojas' murals of significant Mexican leaders, including Miguel Hidalgo. 

I enjoyed Queretaro. It's a large, developed city, the kind you'd want to live in, and it also has a historic center, so you have the best of the old and new worlds. 

I didn't enjoy Morelia as much, but it has two unique sights: 1) the Church of Guadalupe (aka Shrine of Our Lady of Guadalupe) 

and 2) Biblioteca Publica Universitaria y Fondo Antiguo. 

Puebla city, Puebla continues to be the most underrated city I've visited in Mexico. Its International Museum of Baroque is world-class, and its Biblioteca de Palafoxiana is one of the most unique libraries ever built, starting with a donation of 5,000 books from Juan de Palafox. 

Winter Carnaval in Quebec City (2019)

Quebec City, Canada is cold in February--really cold! One upside to this unfortunate weather is the ability to host a unique annual festival called Winter Carnaval. Though most events are for children, including a maze made entirely of ice blocks, alcohol is sold (similar to European X-Mas festivals), so adults can listen to live music and drink to their heart's delight. (Somehow, the combination of alcohol and slippery ice doesn't result in cartoonish slips and falls everywhere.) 

The most impressive part of the show can be found in the Little Champlain area, which has several ornate ice sculptures. Though ice sculptures are displayed throughout different festival sites, the majority seem to be near Champlain (aka Quartier Petit Champlain). I saw everyone from The Little Prince, to Ken and Barbie, to the entire Simpsons family--all made entirely of ice. 

Other activities are available, such as ax throwing (I did not manage to make a single one stick to the target after the maximum five tries), sledding, viewing events on a Jumbotron, and more. The most fun activity is tobogganing, which I've wanted to do since reading Calvin & Hobbes as a kid. 

Comic strip copyrighted by Bill Watterson & re-produced under fair use exemption. 

The more people on the sled, the faster it runs, but if you go by yourself (like me), the experience will be just as much fun. 

Bonhomme, the name of the large, ubiquitous snowman, is the personable host of the Carnaval and can be seen chatting up guests and taking photos. 

Tickets to all events, in the form of a Bonhomme snowman "effigy," are sold for 15 Canadian dollars at the site. If you visit in 2019, I suggest taking a bus near Restaurant Le Grand Cafe (690 Grande Allée E), then walking up the hill to the main event area, where you can purchase tickets/effigies. Afterwards, walk the one kilometer to Le Chateau de Fronteac hotel, 

A popular location site for Hollywood movies

go tobogganing, 

then go downstairs to Quartier Le Petit Champlain to see more ice sculptures. 

Walking is easier than driving because many roads will be blocked to protect pedestrians and exhibits. I don't know whether this advice will be useful after 2019, but it worked for me. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2019)

Bonus: if you have time, you may also want to visit The Queen Elizabeth Hotel. In 1969, John Lennon and Yoko Ono spent a week there, where they recorded "Give Peace A Chance" while in bed surrounded by singers and fans.