SE Asian History: a Chronological Primer

If "Europe in the first half of the 20th century was the killing fields of the world," Asia suffered the same ignominious status from 1949 to 1979. WWII may have ended in 1945, but the last two powers left standing jockeyed for influence while Europe's occupation forces lingered to maintain access to natural resources and strategic ports.

Below is a chronological overview of SE Asian history and related events in the second half of the 20th century. In just 30 minutes of reading, you will learn the basics of 30 years of Asian history, though astute readers will notice my limited knowledge of Thailand and the Philippines. Note that North American time is approximately 14 hours behind SE Asia, so some dates may differ by one day from USA-issued textbooks. 

1945: Terauchi Hisaichi, commander of the Japanese expeditionary forces in Southeast Asia, summons Sukarno and Mohammad Hatta to notify them of Japan's imminent surrender/departure and to tell them to prepare for Indonesia's immediate independence. 

1945: President Sukarno, previously imprisoned by Dutch colonial forces, delivers "The Birth of Pancasila," declaring five founding principles of a Free Indonesia: 1. Indonesian nationalism [the principle of one National state, i.e.,  the will to unite throughout the islands]; 2. Internationalism -- or humanism; 3. Consent, or democracy; 4. Social prosperity [eradication of poverty]; 5. Belief in God [and freedom to worship each Indonesian's particular God]. 

When Sukarno [more popularly written as Soekarno] was faced with the question whether Indonesia should be an Islamic country or a secular one, he denied both. As a compromise, he set forth the principle of belief in the "One and Only God" (Ketuhanan Yang Maha Esa). -- Shigeo Nishimura, "The Development of Pancasilia Moral Education in Indonesia." (1995) 

1946: Sarawak state within present-day Malaysia resists being ceded to Britain. Oil-rich Sarawak has functioned independently for almost a century under a deal made between a Bruneian sultan and the British Brooke family.

1947: USA President Truman declares the "Truman Doctrine," in which he pledges USA financial and economic aid to countries that resist Communist influence. 

At the present moment in world history nearly every nation must choose between alternative ways of life. The choice is too often not a free one... I believe that it must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures. I believe that we must assist free peoples to work out their own destinies in their own way. I believe that our help should be primarily through economic and financial aid which is essential to economic stability and orderly political processes. The world is not static, and the status quo is not sacred. But we cannot allow changes in the status quo in violation of the Charter of the United Nations by such methods as coercion, or by such subterfuges as political infiltration. In helping free and independent nations to maintain their freedom, the United States will be giving effect to the principles of the Charter of the United Nations... The free peoples of the world look to us for support in maintaining their freedoms. If we falter in our leadership, we may endanger the peace of the world -- and we shall surely endanger the welfare of our own nation. -- President Harry Truman, March 12, 1947

1947: a two-state solution is borne. After almost two decades of nonviolent protests and negotiations (e.g., the Lahore Resolution) led by Mohandas Gandhi and Muhammad Ali Jinnah, a British Parliamentary act partitions British India into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan. 

1948: a Hindu extremist assassinates Mohandas Gandhi on January 30, 1948. 

1948: the Malayan Communist Party, through the Malayan National Liberation Army, supports an armed insurgency against British occupiers. The British colonial government declares a state of emergency in Malaya, keeping large swaths of the population under lockdown. A state of emergency lasts from 1948 to 1960. 

Our brothers and sisters in Asia, who were colonized by the Europeans, our brothers and sisters in Africa, who were colonized by the Europeans, and in Latin America, the peasants, who were colonized by the Europeans, have been involved in a struggle since 1945 to get the colonialists, or the colonizing powers, the Europeans, off their land, out of their country. This is a real revolution. Revolution is always based on land. -- Malcolm X, "The Black Revolution," April 8, 1964

1949: after four years of civil war, in which millions die, the Communist Revolution in China succeeds. The People's Republic of China (PRC) is established after MAO Zedong of the Communist Party of China defeats Jiang Jieshi aka Chiang Kai-shek, who exiles himself to present-day Taiwan aka Chinese Taipei and receives protection from USA's Navy. MAO prevails in China by supporting peasants and farmers against landowners. 

The Chinese Revolution: they wanted land. They threw the British out, along with the Uncle Tom Chinese... I read an article in Life magazine showing a little Chinese girl, nine years old; her father was on his hands and knees and she was pulling the trigger because he was an Uncle Tom Chinaman. When they had the revolution over there, they took a whole generation of Uncle Toms and just wiped them out. And within ten years that little girl became a full-grown woman. No more Toms in China. And today it's one of the toughest, roughest, most feared countries on this earth by the white man. Because there are no Uncle Toms over there. -- Malcolm X, "Message to the Grassroots," November 10, 1963

1949: despite the Japanese surrender in 1945, the British and Dutch refuse to recognize Indonesian independence. On December 27, 1949, the Dutch finally leave Indonesia and recognize Indonesia's right to self-determination, but continue to control much of Indonesia's private sector, including its banking and oil industries. Indonesia does not gain control of a single Dutch-controlled bank (Javasche Bank) until 1953. 

At the time [1930s], there were two kinds of teacher's colleges: the so-called Native Teachers College to train native Indonesians to become teachers for native children; and the European Teacher's College to train teachers for Dutch children. I was enrolled after a very selective exam, but they barred me because a brown man standing as a teacher before a class of white Dutch children could create respect in the minds of Dutch children for the brown man. That was the reality of colonial society: it was full of discrimination and humiliation for us. -- Dr. H. Roeslan Abdulgani, one-time Indonesian ambassador to the United Nations 

1950: on February 9, 1950, USA Senator Joseph McCarthy gives a speech in which he claims the State Department, USA's agency of international relations and foreign policy, is harboring traitors and Communists. McCarthy, a devout Catholic, frames the conflict as between a "western Christian world and the atheistic Communist world." 

This is a time of "the cold war." This is a time when all the world is split into two vast, increasingly hostile armed camps--a time of a great armament race. -- Joseph McCarthy (1950) 

1950: beginning of Korean War from 1950 to 1953. 

1953: beginning of Cuban Revolution. 

1953: Operation Ajax aka TPAJAX. The United States overthrows democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh in Iran. Mossadegh, a nationalist, had planned to transfer ownership of foreign oil companies operating in Iran to the Iranian people or at least negotiate more equitable terms. 

The struggle against capitalism had to be nationalist, too, because capital in Indonesia [and other SE Asian countries] was predominantly foreign. The goal was unity between nationalism, Islam and socialism but it was the nationalist content of Islam and socialism that made unity possible. -- from Indonesia, the first 50 years, 1945-1995 (Archipelago Press)

1953: in October 1953, USA agrees to send France 385 million USD in military aid to continue disrupting Communist influence in Indochina (present-day Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia). 

Now let us assume that we lose Indochina. If Indochina goes, several things happen right away. The Malayan peninsula, the last little bit of the end hanging on down there, would be scarcely defensible--and tin and tungsten that we so greatly value from that area would cease coming... So, when the United States votes $400 million to help that war, we are not voting for a giveaway program. We are voting for the cheapest way that we can to prevent the occurrence of something that would be of the most terrible significance for the United States of America--our security, our power and ability to get certain things we need from the riches of the Indonesian territory, and from southeast Asia. -- USA President Eisenhower, August 4, 1953 

1954: led by the United States, the Manila Pact is signed, creating SEATO, a NATO for SE Asia. SEATO is unsuccessful and is eventually dissolved in 1977. 

1954: the United States, with the active support and lobbying of the Catholic Church, installs Catholic Ngô Dinh Diem in South Vietnam. Diem and his Roman Catholic Archbishop brother, Ngô Đình Thục, call upon Catholics in the north to move south and openly discriminate against local majority Buddhists. 

1954: from April to June 1954, USA Senator Joseph McCarthy holds anti-Communist hearings in Congress, where he accuses the U.S. Army of Communist infiltration. 

I will tell you about the situation in Saigon. When you did not appease certain groups, they called you a Communist. Who was it in the United States that practiced that tactic? Joe McCarthy? We had the same people in Vietnam. Anyone you disagree with, just call him a Communist. -- General Nguyen Khanh, interview, June 2009 

1954: in November 1954, the USA government gives Ngô over 28 million USD in foreign aid and begins taking over security responsibilities from France. 

1955: Jawaharlal Nehru-led Bandung Conference takes place in Indonesia, focusing on anti-colonialism. Internal Chinese communications indicate Taiwanese plot to assassinate Chinese delegate to conference. Indonesian President Sukarno delivers historic speech capturing optimism and pessimism of the times and correctly predicting war. 

Great chasms yawn between nations and groups of nations. Our unhappy world is torn and tortured, and the peoples of all countries walk in fear lest, through no fault of theirs, the dogs of war are unchained once again... The political skill of man has been far outstripped by technical skill, and what he has made he cannot be sure of controlling. The result of this is fear. And man gasps for safety and morality. -- first Indonesian President Sukarno, Bandung opening address at the Bandung Conference, April 18, 1955  

1956 to 1962: over ten countries on the African continent declare independence from colonial Europe. [See Ebere Nwaubani's The United States and Decolonization in West Africa, 1950-1960 (2001); and "The United States and the Liquidation of European Colonial Rule in Tropical Africa, 1941-1963" (2003)] 

1957: on August 31, 1957, Tunku Abdul Rahman issues the Malayan Declaration of Independence proclaiming independence from Britain. 

However, the proclamation is mostly ceremonial due to two factors: 1) British troops are still enforcing a state of emergency against Communist insurgents within Malaysia; and 2) Britain appears to be using Rahman to deflect accusations of colonialism by the Communists, who are now technically fighting against an independent country led by a Malay leader. 

The 14 stripes on Malaysia's flag represent its 13 different states, plus one Federal Territory, Kuala Lumpur.

1957: in December, Indonesia's President Sukarno begins nationalizing Dutch-owned businesses and expels between 40,000 and 50,000 Dutch nationals. 

In many countries, anti-colonial fighters and heroes would win independence and assume power, but then fail at nation-building, because the challenges of bringing a society together, growing an economy, [and] patiently improving people's lives are very different from fighting for independence. -- Singaporean PM LEE Hsien Loong (2015)

1959: beginning of the Laotian Civil War from 1959 to 1975.

1959: in May 1959, USA-backed President Ngô of the Republic of Vietnam passes Law 10/59, authorizing courts to issue death sentences on the spot against any political opponents "endangering national security." 

1959: Britain grants Singapore autonomy except in matters of defense and foreign policy, pushing Singapore towards self-determination. By 1964, Britain's budget was straining under obligations of empire and post-WWII debts, leading the Labour government to announce a phased withdrawal of British troops in Singapore by 1971. 

1962: on November 1, 1962, a referendum is held in Singapore to determine whether Singaporeans desire a merger with the Federated States of Malaya (present-day Malaysia). An overwhelming majority of Singaporeans vote to join Malaysia, but Barisan Sosialis, Singapore's anti-colonial party formed by left-wing members of the PAP, questions the referendum's legitimacy because blank votes are counted as pro-merger when in fact they represent opposition. 

1963: in April 1963, Indonesia's President Sukarno attacks still-British Borneo in present-day Malaysia, refusing to allow a de facto British-formed state on Indonesia's doorstep ("Konfrontasi"). By pressuring British influence in Malaysia, Indonesia paves the way for eventual Singaporean as well as Malaysian independence. Britain in the 1960s has no stomach for war. It is mired in domestic economic problems due to record unemployment as well as civil unrest in Hong Kong, Aden (Yemen), and Southern Rhodesia. Even so, despite an 800 million pounds deficit in 1964, Britain believes it has a stabilizing role to play "East of Suez." 

1963: on May 8, 1963, South Vietnamese security forces fire into a crowd of Buddhist religious marchers celebrating the Buddha's 2,527th birthday. From NSA Archive: "The rationale for the breakup of this march was no more serious than that the Buddhists had ignored a government edict against flying flags other than the South Vietnamese state flag. Another of [Ngô] Diem's brothers, the Roman Catholic archbishop for this same area of South Vietnam[,] had flown flags with impunity just weeks before when celebrating his own promotion within the Church." 

USA troops kneeling before Catholic priest
(Photo taken in War Remnants Museum in Vietnam)

1963: on June 11, 1963, a bonze--an ordained Buddhist monk--publicly sets himself on fire to protest Ngô's discriminatory actions. 

1963: on July 9, 1963, Britain negotiates terms creating a common financial market between Singapore and Malaysia that allows substantial British banking and insurance influence in SE Asia (as well as Hong Kong). The agreement is signed in London. 

1963: on August 28, 1963, North Borneo (aka Sabah), Sarawak, and Singapore sign an agreement to create a new, British-backed Malaysia effective August 31, 1963 (Merdeka Day aka Freedom Day). 

1963: on November 1 and 2, 1963, USA-sponsored Ngô and one of his brothers are captured and killed. French-trained General Duong Van Minh takes over leadership in South Vietnam. 

1963: on November 22, 1963, USA President JFK is assassinated. 

1964: on January 30, 1964, General Minh is unable to form a viable government in South Vietnam and is overthrown in a bloodless coup led by French-trained General Nguyen Khanh. Subsequent coups and counter-coups occur in Saigon. 

1964: Singapore experiences racial riots between majority-Chinese and minority-Malay residents. A teenaged Kishore Mahbubani, whose father arrived in Singapore orphaned and alone at the age of 13, sees his neighbors beaten and killed. (Mahbubani later becomes Singapore’s Ambassador to the United Nations.) The following year, Malaysia's PM Rahman will cite these riots and the 1,000+ residents arrested as one reason Malaysia separated from Singapore. 

1964: USA President Johnson signs Gulf of Tonkin resolution on August 10, 1964, escalating USA aggression in SE Asia on the basis of two reported attacks: the first one involving zero USA casualties, and the second one falsified.

1965: after Indonesia's attack against British Borneo (now Sabah) and related pressure, the British focus on developing Singapore, especially its port, and forgo a united Federation of Malaya-Sarawak-Brunei-North Borneo-Singapore under British influence. Consequently, on August 7, 1965, Singapore and Malaysia agree to separate, giving Singapore its independence, though some say the predominantly Chinese Singaporeans were "kicked out of Malaysia" as part of a two-state solution giving Muslim Malays political power in Malaysia and non-Muslim Chinese the same statistical dominance in Singapore. In a televised interview, Singaporean founder Lee Kuan Yew (of Peranakan descent) begins crying when discussing separation, saying, "The whole of my adult life, I have believed in merger and the unity of these two territories." 

We are going to have a multi-racial nation in Singapore. We will set the example. This is not a Malay nation. This is not a Chinese nation. This is not an Indian nation. Everybody will have his place. Equal. Language, culture, religion. -- Lee Kuan Yew, 1965

1965: Indonesia withdraws from the United Nations in protest of Malaysia's admittance. As a result of Indonesia's withdrawal from the U.N., it loses access to foreign aid/loans from the World Bank and IMF. 

1965: USA President Johnson opens major ground war in Vietnam, escalating conflict. 

1965: on October 1, 1965, several high-ranking members of the Indonesian military are murdered in an alleged coup d'état but President Sukarno is safe, and the coup fails. By evening, General Soeharto--who now has fewer opponents within the military hierarchy--takes control of Jakarta and places all media under strict military control. The Indonesian military publicly blames the Communist Party of Indonesia (PKI) for the alleged coup and does nothing to stop indiscriminate anti-Communist violence. Hundreds of thousands and perhaps millions of Indonesians are murdered. The PKI, which at one point had been the second largest Communist political party in the world, is no more.

The rate of increase of consumer prices [inflation] rose from 27% in 1961 to over 1000% in 1966 [in Indonesia]. -- Mary Sutton, Indonesia 1966-70: Economic Management and the Role of the IMF, Overseas Development Institute (April 1982)

1966: on March 12, Sukarno transfers power to Soeharto, Sultan Hamengkubuwono IX (the Sultan of Yogyakarta), and Adam Malik. Western powers tell Soeharto that abandoning Konfrontasi would stabilize Indonesia's economy, meaning the IMF and the United States Agency for International Development would provide substantial foreign aid/loans for Indonesian development and also re-schedule existing debt. Soeharto, eager to make Indonesia the example to emulate in the East, accepts foreign aid and investment that assume, among other projections, annual electrical load growth of 15 to 20%. Over the next two decades, armed with tens of billions of dollars of loans and oil, Soeharto begins modernizing Indonesia's infrastructure, leading a building spree that creates state-of-the-art international airports, railway stations, mosques, art centers, hotels, shopping malls, and other projects, mostly in Jakarta/Djakarta.

I also realized that my college professors had not understood the true nature of macroeconomics: that in many cases helping an economy grow only makes those few people who sit atop the pyramid even richer, while it does nothing for those at the bottom except to push them even lower. -- John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hitman (2004)

1966: facing increasing living costs and an uncertain economic future, Hong Kong residents riot in 1966 and 1967 against British policies. Britain devalues the pound sterling in 1967. 

1966: on June 1, 1966, Indonesia and Malaysia begin negotiations in Bangkok. Konfrontasi officially ends August 12, 1966. 

1967: beginning of Cambodian Civil War and genocide from 1967 to 1975. 

1967: ASEAN is created. 

1967: on September 7, 1967, Indonesia and Singapore establish formal diplomatic relations. 

1968: My Lai massacre in Vietnam. 

1968: the Soviet Union publishes the "Brezhnev Doctrine," in which the Soviet Union, in order to protect workers' rights worldwide, reserves the right to interfere in countries considering capitalism or non-approved foreign influence.

There is no doubt that the peoples of the socialist countries and the Communist parties have and must have freedom to determine their country’s path of development. However, any decision of theirs must damage neither socialism in their own country, nor the fundamental interests of the other socialist countries, nor the worldwide workers’ movement, which is waging a struggle for socialism. This means that every Communist party is responsible not only to its own people but also to all the socialist countries and to the entire Communist movement. -- Sergei Kovalev, "The International Obligations of Socialist Countries," September 25, 1968 

1969: on May 13, 1969, tensions surrounding Malaysia's general election result in racial riots in Kuala Lumpur, which later spill over into Singapore. Between 100 to 900 people, mostly ethnic Chinese Malays, are killed. Chinese Malays, dissatisfied with the government's plans to promote opportunities for ethnic Malays ("Bumiputera"), shift votes to extremist political parties to send a message to the Malay political establishment. Around this time, eleven Chinese men are found guilty of treason against the Malaysian government. 

From A Doctor in the House, The Memoirs of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad

1969: USA President Nixon expounds the "Nixon Doctrine," whereby the United States pledges financial aid and weapons rather than ground troops for allies facing military threats, thus reversing President Johnson's ground war in Vietnam. 

American expansion was primarily the outgrowth of financial and economic imperialism. In principle, the United States did not annex, it made an economic conquest. -- from Indonesia, the first 50 years, 1945-1995 (Archipelago Press) 

1973: OPEC initiates an oil embargo against Western nations in protest of Western interference in the Middle East. 

1974: oil and gas fields are discovered in East Timor.

1974: "If the decade must be summarized, it could be said that the youth of America, who had so recently studied it in civics classes, tested the system--and it flunked." -- USA journalist Warren Hinckle, author of If You Have a Lemon, Make Lemonade (1974) 

1975: on April 30, 1975, Communist-backed northern Vietnamese forces re-capture occupied south Vietnam, ending Vietnam War.

1975: in December 1975, after meeting with USA President Ford and Henry Kissinger, General Soeharto invades East Timor (aka Timor-Leste), driving out Portuguese colonizers. Soeharto is covertly backed by the United States, which is keen to prevent Chinese political influence in East Timor. The U.N., seeing East Timor torn between competing interests of several stronger powers, demands Soeharto leave East Timor. Defying world opinion, Indonesia--convinced of its stature as a superpower in the making--maintains troops in East Timor during Soeharto's entire tenure, and East Timor does not gain right to self-determination until 1999-2002. 

The UN estimates nearly half the population [of East Timor] lives below the extreme poverty line of US$1.90 a day and half of the children under 5 suffer moderate to severe physical and mental stunting as a result of malnutrition. -- from UNDP, 2018 article

1978: the Communist Vietnamese military invades Cambodia to remove the genocidal Khmer Rouge. The world is split between condemning the unilateral violation of another nation's sovereignty and applauding the removal of the destructive Khmer Rouge.

1978: the Saur Revolution. Soviet-backed forces murder sitting Afghan President Khan. Taraki, a member of the revolution/coup, is named president in 1978. Taraki is murdered in 1979 by Hafizullah Amin, who in turn is allegedly murdered on orders from the Soviet Union because of his role in Taraki's death. 

1979: Iranian Islamic Revolution. After a year of protests and martial law, the Shah is exiled from Iran and student protestors overrun the U.S. embassy in Tehran, taking 52 American hostages. 

1979: Nicaraguan Revolution. "The United States supported the brutal Somoza dictatorship in Nicaragua for over 40 years. The Nicaraguan people, led by the Sandinistas, overthrew this regime in 1979, a breathtaking popular revolution." (Harold Pinter, 2005)

1979: beginning of Soviet-Afghan War from 1979 to 1989, in which 500,000 to 2,000,000 civilians are murdered, causing millions of Afghans to flee to Pakistan and Iran, where they become refugees. The United States actively supports Afghan rebels aka mujahideen, the Taliban's precursor, against the Soviet Union. 

1990-1991: the Soviet Union collapses. 

1997: in 1997 and 1998, East Asia suffered a serious financial crisis that wiped out decades of progress. Unemployment and poverty increased substantially in countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines. The political leaders of Indonesia [including Soeharto], South Korea, and Thailand lost their mandates and were replaced. (From The Tommy Koh Reader, reproduced from February 23, 2009)  

A rapid outflow of foreign capital contributed to the sharp contraction in investment during the Asian crisis. Between 1997 and 1999, net foreign direct investment in Indonesia shifted from an inflow of 2.2% of GDP to an outflow of 1.3%, while the volume of investment fell by 45%. -- Stephen Elias and Clare Noone, The Growth and Development of the Indonesian Economy (December 2011)

In December 1997, ASEAN--originally intended to help smaller and developing Asian countries negotiate better terms with more developed countries--becomes ASEAN Plus Three (APT: ASEAN + China, Japan, South Korea), deepening Asian economic, political, and social cooperation. 

2001: on December 11, 2001, China joins the World Trade Organization. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (April 2020) 

Dedicated to Ms. Dunham, my blue-eyed, straight-haired Social Studies teacher at Castro Middle School (San Jose, CA), who told me "You're not that important." Now that I'm older, I am pleased to say I never let my schooling interfere with my education. 

A Primer on Modern History

The study of modern history is needlessly complicated. Unfortunately, most history teachers and professors spent their lives in a few countries or studied only a single subject, rendering them unable to provide the context students so desperately need. I have tried below to provide a straightforward framework acceptable to everyone. Without such a framework, historical understanding will fracture, and humanity will continue to repeat the same mistakes.

Since 1945, every single government and military has been focused on attaining or preventing others from attaining nuclear weapons. After the United States dropped bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ending WWII, politicians and military leaders realized existing defense/protection paradigms no longer applied. A country with the most skilled troops, superior munitions, most efficient supply chains, best hygiene (to prevent disease, which often killed more soldiers than active combat), and even superior strategy would not necessarily prevail. Now, only three things mattered: technology and the ability and willingness to use it. Developing brawn had given way to developing brains and gaining (accurate) information.

Military budgets prioritized R&D and began to emphasize covert operations. As governments continued competing for the moral high ground, questions became more complex. When was a first strike politically acceptable? How could one determine whether a recruit would keep secrets? How could countries identify the best minds in the world and entice them to relocate? (e.g., Operation Paperclip) 

Such a shift required a mix of intrigue, psychology, persuasion, media influence, and propaganda. Intelligence communities realized they would be key players in the new paradigm and, in an era prior to CCTVs and ubiquitous technological surveillance, reliable human assets and agents would be the difference between victory and defeat. Furthermore, where soft power and persuasion would not work, assassinations and abductions would--preferably through a third party ally. [Evidence: Operation Damocles; Anwar al-Awlaki and his 16 years-old son; Israel assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists Masoud Alimohammadi, Majid Shahriar, Darioush Rezaeinejad, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, and possibly Ardeshir Hassanpour, mimicking USA's strategy against Germany.] 

Such tactics were not enough for military and intelligence units, which also resorted to false flag operations or coups on a much wider scale. [e.g., Gulf of Tonkin, Lavon Affair/Operation Susannah, Operation Ajax (1953), Operation Musketeer (1956)] Facing potential conflicts between civilian and military objectives, democratic regimes sought to limit international interference with domestic governance, causing ideological splits regarding the balance of law, order, and dissent. As domestic resistance increased, it had the potential to upend military alliances post-WWII, which involved important economic treaties and investments. (See “most favored nation” clause, which used USA's stronger currency to tilt trade in its favor: “The American workman, by 1960, had the highest standard of living in the world, and all due to what they genteelly called ‘the most favored nation’ clause in every commercial transaction with the East.” – Philip K. Dick) 

The failure of Western governments to foresee strong domestic resistance to international policies led to more secrecy in the name of national security, both at home and abroad. The private security industry, not subject to invasive government oversight, began its ascent. British-based Securicor is one example. In 1953, it specialized in delivery and logistics, eventually making its way into the telecom (aka surveillance and data-gathering) business. Today, it is part of G4S, the world's largest security company. With 585,000 employees, G4S is the world's third largest private sector employer and the largest in Europe and Africa. (See the film Logan (2017) for a dystopian view of the possible evolution of private security firms.) 

Returning to the 1960s, covert operations and violations of territorial sovereignty (Operation Menu) became more accepted within governments as the United States began to realize its superior armaments were not enough in Vietnam. As nuclear energy and more lethal weapons accelerated the risks of being outside established alliances, countries and military leaders were forced into one of two camps: pro-Soviet Union (which in practice often meant pro-China) and pro-American. Meanwhile, existing and aspiring world leaders learned that favorable (or in the case of Vietnam, unfavorable) media coverage and asymmetrical warfare—later used by Osama bin Laden—could defeat larger powers or at least convince them to leave. Like private security firms, the general media industries--in this case, television and radio--began their steady ascent. 

Its ability to influence world affairs now jeopardized by increasing Chinese and Soviet influence in Asia and Eastern Europe as well as domestic turmoil, America began addressing matters under its direct control more forcefully. American police started using the same tactics as the military and intelligence communities on their own people. (Potential lesson: once the military uses a particular strategy successfully, it is only a matter of time before the civilian government deploys similar strategies.) 

Surveillance, infiltration, and financially-debilitating lawsuits were used against antiwar groups and activists from MLK to Muhammad Ali to John Lennon. The term “law and order” became a justification for a proxy war against protesters, later morphing into President Reagan’s "War on Drugs." Ironically, countervailing forces that bolstered social change came partly from the military, which had relied on greater female participation in the private workforce during wartime as well as soldiers of color, including but not limited to Jackie Robinson. 

Politicians like America's Joseph McCarthy had used the media to blacklist anyone deemed an adversarial nonconformist in the 1950s at the same time the Soviet Union and its satellite forces were blacklisting and jailing dissidents.As power-hungry politicians gained more power, propaganda against dissenters became more widespread, with police officers in some jurisdictions ordered to attack nonviolent protestors while federal agencies (J. Edgar Hoover) spied on civil rights leaders. As lines between international and domestic operations blurred, the Watergate scandal was a natural and inevitable result. (See The Most Dangerous Man in America (2009).) 

Were it not for the courageous work of American whistleblowers and journalists (e.g., All the President’s Men (1976)), who often ignored conservative legal advice from their employers, secretive operations would have continued without abatement. Unfortunately, civilian resistance movements against the Eastern Establishment were not as strong as ones in the West, thus preserving the East's status quo--a status quo that would later prove to be unsustainable, essentially bankrupting the Soviet Union and ending its petro-military-industrial economic model. 

In the West, where the status quo was fraying, greater diversity flourished, both strengthening and weakening authoritarian impulses. Taking advantage of distractions in Southeast Asia and Central/South America, some countries decided to cooperate outside U.S. or Soviet-led alliances, much in the same way China would later exploit America’s failure to “pivot to Asia” after the costly and counterproductive 2003 Iraq War. [Examples: creation of ASEAN in 1967; “mid-level” countries like Argentina and Iran working to resume nuclear cooperation, only to see outside events interfere with their relationships, such as the Buenos Aires 1992 embassy bombing, in which neither Argentina nor Iran strangely derived any benefit.]

In 1973, the OPEC embargo added yet another disruptor to the existing world order, namely the integrity of the oil supply chain, which formed the underlying basis of U.S. dollar strength and numerous economic treaties. Post-Nixon and the cessation of active armed conflict between West and East, economic statecraft became the way forward, with America’s mighty Navy and more developed financial markets giving the West a clear advantage. Trade, oil, weapons development, and continued control of nuclear energy would dominate international relations until the birth of the internet in the 1990s. The formal dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 26, 1991 provided America with the opportunity to create what President George Bush, formerly the CIA's Director, called a “new world order” on September 11, 1990, a period lasting until September 11, 2001. America's 2003 invasion of Iraq, driven by falsified pretenses, shattered America's reputation, allowing other countries to vie for global dominance. And here we are. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2017)

Bonus: another historical pattern is that when two countries enter into a treaty—whether to avoid war or after a conflict—often only one party intends on upholding the terms. The other party uses the break in tensions to disarm—both literally and figuratively—the other signatory, eventually invading the former enemy and prevailing through political chicanery.

Bonus: when we hear the term, "divide and conquer," we typically understand the term absent historical context. After WWII, the British, despite prevailing, were in debt and could not maintain their empire, which once spanned a quarter of the globe. They attempted to break up or partition several areas in order to more easily manage them and to allow Western powers to maintain naval supremacy. Singapore's break from Malaysia is one example--keep the port, leave the land. Divide and conquer. Yet, even with lesser security obligations, European powers, particularly the British and the French, could not afford empire status. By the time of the Vietnam War, Europe had effectively handed off empire duties and corresponding security--both for Westerners living abroad as well as Western-owned businesses--to the United States. 

Bonus: from Allison J. Truitt's Dreaming of Money in Ho Chi Minh City (2013): "The United States' massive military expenditures in Southeast Asia led to the collapse of its ability to maintain the dollar's fixed value relative to gold. When the US government put an end to the dollar's convertibility in 1971, it ushered in a new era of more flexible and more volatile exchange rates." 

Bonus: counterpoint from Singapore's Kishore Mahbubani's Has the West Lost It? (2018)

Bonus: if you enjoyed this post, you may also like this one: Ports, Finance, Power, and Free Trade. 

Bonus: "History... is not merely something to be read... On the contrary, the great force of history comes from the fact that we carry it within us, are unconsciously controlled by it in many ways, and history is literally present in all that we do.  It could scarcely be otherwise, since it is to history that we owe our frames of reference, our identities, and our aspirations." -- James Baldwin, USA (1965)