Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Seth Godin, on Hillary Clinton's Chances in 2005

"Hillary Clinton, more than others, has a worldview problem because the vast majority of the electorate has already told itself a story about her... I believe there isn't enough money in circulation to persuade those voters that have already made up their minds to change them." -- from Seth Godin's All Marketers are Liars (2005), pp. 81, hardcover.

Bonus: "Trust is the scarcest resource we've got left. No one trusts anyone." -- pp. 9.

What's my take? Marketers have reached a point where their stories diverge so far from reality, people have stopped listening.  The real gamechangers will be the truth-tellers--if the marketers allow them media space.

Bonus"Hillary Clinton received the most money from Goldman [Sachs] employees and affiliated PACs... during the 2016 election cycle." -- The Atlantic, April 2017, pp. 23. #hillaryclinton 

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Barry Ritholtz: Look Out Below?

According to today's post, hedge fund manager and author Barry Ritholtz says: 

We have been mostly cash since May 5th (as much as 100% then, 50% cash in June). We are now over 80% cash, and are looking for a move down towards 950 on the SPX. 

950 on the S&P 500 means a 20% drop from today's prices. Still, don't HPQ and some other tech names seem tempting at current (8/24/10) prices? Mr. Ritholtz seems to be betting that the Democrats--which control both the White House and Congress--will do nothing about a 20% stock market decline, even with elections arriving soon. 

More from Barry Ritholtz here

Disclosure: I own shares of HPQ.

Monday, May 31, 2010

Will Arizona be a Democratic State by 2035?

The GOP doesn't realize it yet, but Arizona will be a Democratic state within 25 years. Under our Constitution, every child born in Arizona is an American citizen, regardless of his/her parent's immigration status. Also, children are able to sponsor their parents for citizenship, so the parents that Arizona wants to deport will one day become citizens through their American-born children.

Later, when the children of Mexican immigrants grow up, they will be able to vote. American citizens won't support a political party that wanted to deport their parents. And don't forget: the children of Mexican immigrants go to public schools and will make numerous friends of all ethnicities. Anyone who thinks that second or third-generation American children who grow up playing with their Mexican-American friends will share the same thinking as their parents doesn't understand generational shifts. Put simply, new generations always rebel.

Just look at North Carolina--who would have thought the same state that elected Jesse Helms would one day elect John Edwards?

As for me, I keep wondering when Goldwater/Eisenhower Republicans will create the third party that America desperately needs. Wouldn't most Americans vote for a political party that supports fiscal conservatism, a humble executive branch, and non-interference in our private lives?

Bonus: according to the Brookings Institution, nearly 25% of Americans younger than 18 have at least one immigrant parent.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Update on Stock Market

On January 20, 2010, prior to the market opening, I indicated the stock market would decline to around 1000. See HERE. From January 19 to February 5, the S&P declined from 1,150.23 to 1066.19--a drop of 7.3%. I recently dipped my toe in the market, buying dividend-paying stocks, but now I'm not sure if the S&P will decline to 1000. If the market continues to decline to 1000 or 900, I will double down. I kept some gunpowder for another shot, which makes me feel better if the market does in fact decline to 1000 or less.

The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, I do not provide investment advice, nor do I make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss, or any other result.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Sell Before It's Too Late?

Yesterday, I sold almost all my equity-based positions. I also called my sister and suggested she sell all of her stocks and mutual funds. Of course, you should do your own due diligence, but as of August 3, 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 1002.63, an annual high. The potential for further upside does not seem to justify the risk of holding equities. My remaining major positions--held in a retirement account--include only an inflation-protected bond fund; a GNMA fund; and a corporate bond fund.

My earlier prediction that the S&P would rise to a range between 920 to 950 proved accurate. I made my prediction on April 1, 2009, when the S&P was only 811.08.

More recently, on July 2, 2009, I bought commodities, especially natural gas commodities. Within a month, some of these positions increased almost 20%.

Any economic "recovery" without rising employment will be short-lived. Right now, I see unemployment staying at 7 to 9%, which will suppress wages and disposable income. We will know more on August 7, 2009, when the BLS releases the unemployment numbers.

At some point, it will make sense to jump back in the stock market. Right now, though, I agree with Hilary Kramer's analysis, which can be found here.

Update on June 11, 2010: the S&P 500 was 1002.63 when I made this post. The S&P did go down to 979, but then rose to 1086.84 over the next ten months or so--an 8.4% gain. Although I was wrong about the stock market's direction, the other investments I mentioned--GNMA and TIPs--also had decent gains when including dividend/interest payments. Also, I correctly predicted the unemployment numbers. Where will the stock market go next? I have no idea, but my personal tolerance for risk has gone up. When people start talking about the disintegration of the EU and the collapse of the Euro, maybe it's time to go contrarian--as long as you have 20 to 25 years to wait.

Disclaimer: The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, I do not provide investment advice, nor do I make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss, or any other result.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

S&P Hits Target

On April 1, 2009, I predicted the S&P would hit 950:

http://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2009/04/personal-s-target.html

I later clarified that my prediction was a range between 920 and 950. The S&P hit my range on May 6, 2009. My prediction was correct. From April 1, 2009 to May 6, 2009, the S&P rose 13.3%.

I want to emphasize something. As of May 7, 2009, I am not making any prediction about the future direction of the market. I have no idea what's going to happen. As a result, I am mostly in cash and money market funds, along with some TIPs. I've also opened up two credit union accounts. I'm only earning 1.5% interest there, but it's better than my brokerage's 0.5% rate.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

My Call on Wells Fargo Stock Was Accurate

On February 25, 2009, Wells Fargo (WFC) stock was selling for $13.44/share. I wrote an article where I praised WFC as undervalued:

http://willworkforjustice.blogspot.com/2009/02/treasury-on-wells-fargo.html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/122533-wells-fargo-should-emerge-from-this-crisis-stronger

At the time, President Obama had said that the government would continue to do whatever it took to support banks. Recently, the government allowed banks to use more flexible accounting to value certain assets.

Today, Wells Fargo stock reported better-than-expected earnings. WFC closed at $19.61/share, a 46% increase.

Personally, I bought Wells Fargo on margin all the way down to the single digits and sold at around $14/share. If I had Warren Buffett's money, I would have held on, but I couldn't handle having so much stock on margin. As it stands, I ended up losing some money on the WFC trades because I started buying shares at around $20/share.

It remains to be seen whether my most recent prediction--that the S&P will go to around 950--will come true. At this time, I continue to believe the S&P will rise to somewhere around 920 to 950.