Wartime Safe Harbor: Oil Stocks?

Few people like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but it's important to criticize him based on objective data and correctly translated statements. His statement about calling the Holocaust a "lie" has received massive airplay in the Western media. However, if readers review Al-Jazeera's translation of Ahmadinejad’s statements, it does not appear he was calling the Holocaust a lie--he was calling it a false pretext. There is a world of difference between “false pretext” and a “lie.” Of course, without a link to an actual speech, I am speculating, just like all non-native Farsi speakers are speculating when they repeat the hearsay that Ahmadinejad denied the Holocaust.

In any case, if Mahmoud wanted to deny the Holocaust, Katie Couric gave him the perfect opportunity to do so in a 2009 interview–and he didn’t take the bait. If Mahmoud really doesn’t believe in the Holocaust, why didn't he just come out and say so during the interview?

If you are buying oil stocks (COP, XOM, etc.) and oil ETFs (USO, USL, etc.) because you believe Ahmadinejad's statements about the Holocaust support a military action, you may want to consider the following argument:

1. Most Americans aren't native Farsi speakers.

2. Because most Americans aren't native Farsi speakers, they rely on other people to interpret Mahmoud's statements.

3. Most Americans rely on major Western media outlets to interpret and translate Mahmoud's statements.

4. Most major Western media outlets are profit-driven and tend to emphasize hyperbole to attract the most "eyeballs."

5. If two interpretations exist, major Western media outlets will probably emphasize the more exaggerated interpretation to attract the most "eyeballs."

6. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad either said that the Holocaust is a "lie" or a "false pretext."

7. A "lie" and a "false pretext" are not the same things. For example, an employee may allege that his company's stated reason for termination--being late to work--is a false pretext to cover up its real reason. Calling the employee's lateness a "false pretext" does not mean the employee wasn't late--just that being late isn't the real reason for his termination. It's different than saying that the company is lying or the termination itself is a lie.

8. If Ahmadinejad said the Holocaust was a false pretext for x, y, or z, it does not necessarily mean that he denied the Holocaust.

I will point out that Iran has existed for approximately 3,000 years and has not invaded another country in several centuries. As a result, I'm not losing any sleep over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or any of his idiotic statements. I'm more concerned that Congress and the Western media are exaggerating a so-called "Iranian threat" based on inflammatory interpretations and little hard evidence of a direct threat to Americans. The last time we allowed the media and our government to hype up a so-called threat, we lost 5,000+ American soldiers and our prestige.

Also, Iran has a history of giving safe harbor to Jews (read up on Esther, for example), so there is no ingrained history of tension between Jews and Iranians. Like Glenn Greenwald, I prefer to look at actions more than rhetoric when it comes to judging threats or making judgments. Will cooler heads prevail in 2010? Only time will tell, but if the Iranian response to Neda's killing is any indication, the Iranian people will overthrow their government soon enough. I predict that the ruling clergy will demote or oust Ahmadinejad to save themselves. I also predict Ali Larijani will gain greater influence in the coming years.

Bonus: Here is the transcript from Katie Couric's interview with Ahmadinejad.

FYI: if you want to castigate Ahmadinejad, HERE is the best link to use. Remember: I never said Ahmadinejad hasn't made idiotic, venomous statements in the past, just that we must question hearsay evidence and not rely on poor translations. Truth should always be the highest goal, especially when dealing with people the government wants to discredit.

Where does America get its oil?

If you think America gets most of its oil from Saudi Arabia or the Middle East, you are wrong. ExxonMobil ran an ad in yesterday's WSJ (12/10/08, A10-11) showing the sources of America's oil imports:

55% = North American (includes Canada, Mexico)
16% = Africa
14% = Middle East
12% = South America (includes Venezuela)

The remaining 3% comes from Russia/Caspian, Europe, and Asia-Pacific (includes Indonesia).

Last time I checked, the top three suppliers of American oil were Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela.

Why Does Gasoline Cost $4 or More?

Here is a graphic from the Washington Post re: oil prices. I got this from Barry over at http://bigpicture.typepad.com a while ago:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2008/07/26/GR2008072601566.html?sid=ST2008072601558&pos=list

I disagree with the Barry "The Big Kahuna" Ritholtz on market capitulation (he is waiting for it, I don't think it will happen), but love his blog.

The Prize, by Yergin

"Behind every great fortune is a great crime." The fortunes discussed here involve oil. Two of the most interesting figures are Rockefeller Sr., who is portrayed as a miserly monopolist; and Gulbenkian, an Armenian philosopher and consummate businessman. Yergin's delightful tome also covers world leaders from Eisenhower--who stopped the British from re-taking the Suez Canal post-Nasser--to the Shah, who replaced, then jailed, Mossadegh. Getty, the muckrackers, and other historical figures are also mentioned in detail.

A major historical omission Yergin makes is that he fails to note Kermit Roosevelt's possible role in Operation Ajax, which is discussed in Perkins' _Confessions of an Economic Hit Man_. Still, the scope of this book is incredible. We learn that oil was around one dollar a barrel in the 1940's (meaning our addiction to "black gold" is fairly new); that BP is the successor to the nationalized Anglo-Persian Oil Company; that U.S. and British policy wished to prevent Anglo-Persian's oil from falling into Communist hands, making the new millennium's current events especially interesting; that one possible reason we, rather than the British, have a special relationship with Saudi Arabia may involve FDR's superior knowledge of Middle Eastern culture, as well as FDR's polio; that at one point, Venezuela supplied 55% of the U.S.'s oil (In 2007, Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela supply most of the U.S.'s oil); that Leavittown gave rise to suburbs (fun quote from its founder: "No man who owns his own house and lot can be a Communist. He has too much to do."); and much more. This book should be required reading in every history classroom in America. It enlivens history with its detailed depictions of characters who changed the course of world history. It is around 800 pages in paperback, and is, without question, worth the time investment.