Showing posts with label iowa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label iowa. Show all posts

Friday, April 20, 2018

Book Review: Dan Gable's A Wrestling Life 2

If you're a wrestling fan, you will enjoy this second installment in Dan Gable's autobiographical series. If you're not a wrestling fan or not involved in the sport (as a parent, student, coach, etc.), you should probably skip this book--it's heavy on details that would appeal only to people interested in American Olympic and collegiate wrestling. 

Before I share the most pertinent non-wrestling details below, I will confess I really like Coach Gable. In contrast to the Brands brothers ("If somebody loses a tooth or breaks a finger, it's not intentional [wink wink], but it happens. It's a tough sport."), Gable stands apart for his decency. This book burnishes his already glowing stature in several ways: 

1.  Coach Gable is a teetotaler. This fact garners special relevance when one discovers that Iowa's Tom and Terry Brands--both mentored by Coach Gable--were raised by an alcoholic father and, perhaps emulating Gable, do not touch liquor. 

2.  Gable is a fan of Mountain Dew. (Why Pepsi hasn't already recruited him, I don't know.) 

3.  He lifted award-winning writer John Irving's spirits at a time when Mr. Irving needed a morale boost, demonstrating Mr. Gable's capacity to inspire people of all stripes. 

4.  He plays by the rules: "I was the type of guy to take it to the limit, but not break the rules." Contrast Gable with the Brands brothers, currently the University of Iowa's wrestling coaches: "It's in their nature to be violent. Brutal, savage, ruthless is how they described themselves on T-shirts at Iowa..." (Sports Illustrated, June 3, 1996, Franz Lidz) 

Note: I attended the World Cup in Inglewood, California, where the U.S. lost to Iran. The Brands appear to have instructed Jordan Burroughs, a wrestler adored by Iranian fans in America and abroad, to stare down the audience during the finals. The audience was shocked by Burroughs' uncharacteristically unprofessional behavior. (At least one of the Brands has flipped the bird at a foreign audience during an international competition.) I'm not calling the Brands unwashed hillbillies, but if I did, I think they'd take it as a compliment. 

5.  In the most shocking bombshell in the book, Gable discusses how he was recruited by the Republican Party to run for office in Iowa, only to have Karl Rove put him off. Rove told Gable, "[Y]ou are done thinking... You do what we tell you now." Gable demurred. 

Coach Gable, a Republican, had somehow been registered as a Democrat and switched when it came time to contemplate a run. He states his political contacts "were all one-sided and have been so since Bush." 

Still, when it came time to take a stand, Coach Gable did so against his own party. He may someday regret openly disclosing working with President Trump's team, but his honesty on matters of importance is undisputed. Stories like these are part of the reason I'm a fan of Coach Gable--he has principles that transcend race, expediency, and politics. Most importantly, what you see is what you get. 
In Iowa City, Iowa. (April 2018)
6.  Above all, Coach Gable cares about his wrestlers. During the University of Iowa's title runs, he appears to have been thinking each second about maximizing every one of his wrestlers' potential. Whenever the University of Iowa's wrestling team failed, Gable expressly blames himself. This habit, this reflexive inclination towards perfection, is another reason so many people are fans of Coach Gable. 

7.  If you've made it this far, take a deep breath. We know Coach Gable always looked for ways to motivate his wrestlers, right? Now listen to this: "Watching Uetake [one of the most successful wrestlers in Japanese history] is where I learned the coaching technique of cracking your athlete across the face to get their [sic] attention or to get them ready." 

Before you become indignant, remember that with any other public figure, such words would be interpreted as malicious or not spoken publicly at all. With Gable, nothing is discounted as a tool to motivate his wrestlers, and like any good coach, he sought to interpret his wrestlers' individual temperaments to maximize performance. Coach Gable, like Coach Bobby Knight, is part of the same breed of old-school Americana: too damn honest to be politically correct, and unapologetic believers in their systems' ability to transform personal and athletic lives.
In the end, it's not just Coach Gable's success that attracts so many fans--he lost to Larry Owings, to Bobby Douglas, and in Tbilisi, Georgia in 1971--his popularity comes from his authenticity, a trait few public figures possess today. America could use more people like him, people who embody America's best traits: getting the job done, and being uncompromising on the issue of work ethic. 

Bonus, from Craig Sesker's Bobby Douglas (2011): "Bobby [Douglas] was way better than Gable." -- Coach Dave Bennett

"Some of the best moves I learned in wrestling, Bobby Douglas taught me." -- Dan Gable

Friday, April 13, 2018

Iowa: Once Fertile, Now Barren

In 2009, after California allowed marriage discrimination on the basis of sex while Iowa's Supreme Court struck down a similar attempt, I wrote, "People keep asking how this could happen in California when supposedly more conservative Iowa allows greater protection for same-sex couples... Gay marriage is a 'threat' if you think your own marriage is falling apart and need an external boost to prop it up. On the other hand, if your marriage is fine, and your friends' marriages are doing well, you probably don't feel the need to butt your nose in anyone else's business. Iowans--who basically gave President Obama the Democratic presidential nomination and therefore his eventual election--are probably on the right side of history again." 

In 2010, I continued to praise Iowa: "The more I learn about Tom Harkin (D-IA), the more I respect him. (What is it about Iowa that seems to produce reasonably progressive people instead of the scorch-the-earth-to-change-the-world California types?)" 

How quickly things change. From Gene Wilder's University of Iowa graduation in 1955 to less comedic 2018, it seems an everyday occurrence when Representative Steve King embarrasses himself, protected by a lack of diversity allowing statements resembling the Teutonic. Across the street from the Amana Heritage museum celebrating pacifist German refugees' resistance to local demagoguery, a store sells signs warning intruders they will be shot, survivors shot again, and the police not called. (I am not making this up.) 
America's Christians used to be non-hypocrites who actually read the Bible.
It gets better: when I attended Iowa City's World Cup wrestling tournament--Russia didn't show up because Senator Chuck Grassley couldn't secure visas or we're in a new Cold War--an overweight, drunk white man responded to my criticism of horrendous refereeing by ending his sound and fury with the motto of American white supremacists everywhere: "boy!" (Unsurprisingly, Carver-Hawkeye Arena's main intermission room was filled with beer can totem poles.) 
Iowa, despite its honorable Quaker population, allowed the KKK, including in Dubuque.
The caption states, "Anonymous Gift." 
Iowans will tell you that Iowa is a great place to live, but not to visit. I take the exact opposite view. (I don't try to be a contrarian, but it happens so often, either I'm crazy or the rest of the country has lost its damn mind.) I loved the Hoover Presidential LibraryPresident Herbert "Bert" Hoover and his spitfire wife, Lou, might be the most underrated couple in American history. The Hoovers saved 10 million people worldwide from hunger and built America's reputation for charity: "National character cannot be built by law. It is the sum of the moral fiber of its individuals."
The more things change...
The Amana Heritage Museum, mentioned previously, is small but one of the best organized museums in America. (A gap exists regarding the post-communal Raytheon buyout, but I quibble.) 
Why socialism doesn't work, in a nutshell.
If you have kids or enjoy mechanical engineering, Waterloo's John Deere Museum is a fun family outing, as is Cedar Rapid's National Czech & Slovak Museum. 
I like big tractors and I cannot lie.
Iowa's best tourism spots are its relatively large Amish and Mennonite communities, testaments to the tolerance Iowans used to possess before they lost their damn minds and the Quaker reserve they were known for. I have always liked Oklahomans, but the Mennonites (not so much the Amish) are competitive when it comes to the title of "Friendliest Americans." Children on their way to school all waved to me, and when I entered a classroom unannounced, a young teacher made his way past sturdy, giggling students to shake my hand. 
Self-sufficient at a young age.
I preferred Kalona to the Amana colonies, which are far more touristy, but I recommend visiting both if you're near Iowa City. (I loved the general store's wild chokecherry jam but the gooseberry flavor didn't take.) 

If Iowa is a nice place to visit, why isn't it also a nice place to live? For one thing, Iowa's landscape is white and colorless, much like its people. It has always relied on outsiders to strengthen its appeal. Almost all writers from the Iowa Writers' Workshop--including its most successful graduate, Jane Smiley--were born outside the state. Even Iowa's most celebrated homegrown writer, Bill Bryson, spent most of his life in Great Britain. Recently, Iowa's most famous sports underdog, Ali Farokhmanesh, announced he'd be leaving to Colorado with his family. 

The winters don't help: "Winters were cold enough to kill you," wrote a Writers' Workshop graduate born and raised outside of Iowa. A lack of color may provide the perfect setting to paint your own picture, but it can also blind and repel if a blizzard of hate emerges. Indeed, in the past forty-plus years, other than the wonderful Dan Gable, Iowa has been unable to grow and keep its talent. Up-and-coming Spencer Lee is Coloradoan by birth, and with Oklahoma City thriving nearby and presenting a kinder and more interesting landscape, it's doubtful things will change. 

Iowa's downward trajectory has impacted even its most sacred institutions: corn and wrestling. In collegiate wrestling,
Penn State and Ohio State are the clear leaders, and when Dan Gable dies, it's unclear why anyone would want to join Iowa State when they can learn from Penn State's undefeated Cael Sanderson; be close to Ohio State's charismatic Tom Ryan; or be part of Oklahoma State's rich history of pioneering diverse champions (Kenny Monday, Yojiro Uetake, Bobby Douglas, Eric Guerrero). 
From the well-traveled John Cleese (2014). 
As for corn, it runs on a billion dollars a year from Washington, D.C., a form of white welfare. 
May 24, 2019
Today, John Deere's headquarters are in Moline, Illinois, not Iowa. (Someone snarkier than I might remark Iowa isn't sending America its best people--just drunk farmers on foreign aid.) 
From Dave Barry Hits below the Beltway (2001)
Speaking of billions, Iowa's neighboring Nebraskan and Oklahoman philanthropic billionaires seem to possess limitless energy, and it shows. Everyone knows about Warren Buffett, but the reason an NBA team is called the Thunder and not the Supersonics is because of Clay Bennett, one of America's most humble men--and we haven't even mentioned George Kaiser. Iowans will point to Harry Stine, but if he's done anything noteworthy in Iowa, I haven't seen it. 

In short, if you're in Iowa, you have a 50/50 chance of meeting a coldneck or a decent person. Since most of Iowa's outperformers are from out of state, I'll take my chances elsewhere. Until Steve King is banished from political office, you should, too. 

© Matthew Rafat (2018) 

Update on June 3, 2020: after losing in the primaries to Randy Feenstra, Steve King will not represent the Republican Party in Iowa. From May 2020 interview with Mr. Feenstra: 

"[W]hat is the No. 1 issue facing the nation?"

"As a Christian and a father, the most important issue will always be protecting innocent life. In the Iowa Senate, we ended taxpayer funding for abortion and defunded Planned Parenthood."


Bonus 1: Economists who want to understand Iowa's backward trajectory in such a short time must remember two rules of modern economics: 1) as capital flows into x place, it attracts not only other capital but successful, ambitious people; and 2) the dislocation of a successful person from Place A to Place B results in a 200% variance even before considering first-generation offspring. For example, if an Iranian Muslim or Jew with sought-after technical skills leaves Iran and comes to America, America receives a +1 while Iran receives a -1. This dislocation results in a gap of 200%--not the 100% your intuition might tell you--a gap made even more cavernous if the immigrant's birthplace expended tax dollars or revenue educating him or her.

Now note Iowa's relative lack of domestic and foreign immigration as well as its proximity to more attractive magnets like Chicago, Minneapolis, and Oklahoma City. 


Bonus 2: In Iowa City, I stayed in a hotel under the Marriott brand. (I usually stay at a Hilton, but I couldn't find any rooms nearby the wrestling tournament.) At the hotel, I was surprised to see several members of Ohio State's baseball team visiting for a game against the University of Iowa. Seeing Ohio's taxpayers pay for posh accommodations made me realize why Midwesterners and Southerners lionize college sports: in a land of domestically and internationally weak private sector activity, sports dictate opportunities for teenagers and young adults where none might otherwise exist, certainly in travel. The same argument, but applied to adults, could explain why voters in these areas are so comfortable increasing military spending. 

Bonus 3Almost no one understands pacifism today, and that's why the Amana Heritage Museum is a must-visit. Without understanding history, a country forgets its character and rehashes old conflicts that should have remained settled and buried. If time is a valuable commodity, humanity cannot expect to spend it rehashing the same issues and evolve in an intelligent way. 

Democratic systems, a relatively new concept, matter because in the absence of corruption, they provide perhaps the only objective view into a city or country's tolerance levels. Residents and would-be residents can rely on voting results to decide whether to move or stay, creating a competition between places that would not otherwise exist in any objective format. (See Bonus 1 above.) The history of humanity is, at the end of the day, the history of refugees searching for physical and ideological safety. Those who moved at the right time and to the right place often strengthened their adopted homes while those who stayed behind suffered the worst fate of all: being forgotten at the world's ofrenda

With respect to the Amana colonies, its original residents first moved from inhospitable Germany to New York and finally to Iowa. Along the way, their beliefs changed, manifesting a delicate dance between local authorities and ironclad belief. 
This dance, this jarabe, is the sum of all human civilization. If the Amana believers would have been able to negotiate with New York authorities, they would have stayed, and New York's history might be completely different. It is impossible to know whether the German immigrants' pacifist beliefs would have influenced New York in ways that might have led to an alternate universe where 9/11 did not happen, but we shall never know because of the way New York authorities responded to the different-minded people in their midst. 

One could even argue integrity in its most elemental form is knowing the difference between blind allegiance to the whims of the polity and the appropriate time to diverge. The Amana settlers are still in Iowa, their pictures at America's ofrenda, despite vicious demagoguery because a small band of local sheriffs knew the difference just mentioned, and their courage created a testament to Iowa's tolerance. In their numerous twists and turns while dancing with native Iowans, Amana's refugees gave birth to several noteworthy soldiers and inventions, including the microwave and America's first upright freezer. One of America's remaining Whirlpool plants is in Iowa and not elsewhere because the police and Amana settlers danced the jarabe skillfully a long time ago. 
People want to believe one person can make a difference, but it's probably true in ways we don't imagine and cannot predict. We do know, however, that the Eliot Nessian willingness and courage of a few different-minded individuals who stand together against the tide of unthinking mobs and the intolerance of people who talk, look, and act like them, has changed history. 

The pattern is so obvious, it's a cliché. In Muhammad Ali's case, federal authorities wanted to jail him but he was saved by local stalwarts, more specifically a small band of Kentucky police and Louisville lawyers. Today, if anyone calls a Kentuckian barren or backwards, s/he has a two-word argument that will win every time: Muhammad Ali. What will Iowa's two-word argument be? And what are you prepared to do? 

Bonus 4: I didn't mention Iowa's Grinnell College, but Carleton College in Minnesota is the liberal arts college you'd want to attend. If you can't get into Carleton, then Case Western Reserve University, Washington University, and Oberlin College are similar, if not better than Grinnell. Once again, Iowa lacks a competitive advantage against nearby states, even considering what might be its best feature. 

Bonus 5: from The Iowa Review, Winter 2017/2018, Cammy Brothers' interview with James Alan McPherson in 1987: 
Hmmm, no "Anonymous Gifts" from Aryan Nation members? 
Bonus 6: You'll notice the Mennonites and some Amish women wear headscarves, a "veiling" act similar to Muslim women. Paul Theroux, in Deep South (2015), explains why:

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Chuck Grassley (IA) vs. Dianne Feinstein (CA): the Peacock & the Self-Restrained

Many Californians--plagued by party conformity across political offices and two Senators in office for decades (Boxer: 1993 to 2017; Feinstein: 1992 to the present)--seem unable to understand issues that ought to be simple. I happen to like Dianne Feinstein, will vote for her again if given the chance, 
and know tenured Senators are not unique to liberal states. For example, Iowa's Charles "Chuck" Grassley, in office since 1981, plays the part of cranky old man very convincingly. 
And get off my lawn!
Would Senator Feinstein ever publicly criticize a female college basketball for insufficient patriotism? Probably not. Feinstein's tenure as one of the longest-serving female Senators in American history has been marked by class, dignity, and the kind of intelligence one wishes Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren had. 

Notably, unlike Warren and Clinton, Senator Feinstein's job is secure, and such security allows the taking of difficult, controversial positions; in contrast, jostling for higher public office requires more secrecy and more PR, which favors image curators over truth. We are lucky Senator Feinstein has, more often than not, restrained herself and her staff from using her power to target private citizens--including but not limited to college basketball players--and decided the title of "Senator" was a comfortable enough perch for her ambition. 

Senator Grassley also enjoys a secure Senatorial seat. (America's two major political parties utilized data mining and analysis--the foundation of gerrymandering--long before hackers decided to enter politics.) Because of his political security, Grassley can use his power to go after private citizens who disagree with his views--including female college basketball players in a different state. I am not as old as Senator Grassley, but I come from a time when a powerful man inciting hatred against young female college athletes in any jurisdiction would be considered disrespectful and impolite. Perhaps Iowans--who also elected
Steve King aka "Trump before President Trump"--have different views on Midwestern hospitality. 

Regardless of one's political views, it should be plain the problem isn't tenure or even gerrymandering, but the concept of power itself. I do not know Senator Feinstein, but I imagine growing up during a time when women were not respected as equals to men professionally gave her ballast and a sense of justice not easily replicated by the kind of man who would go after a college athlete in a different state merely because some Iowans sent him emails after a basketball game. (Clinton and Warren show that environment matters, but not decisively.) At the same time, there is no doubt the same security that allows Senator Feinstein to take substantive, difficult positions without suffering Russ Feingoldian consequences is the same phenomenon that allows Senator Grassley and Representative Steve King to act recklessly. A system that does not actually constrain power will always be at risk of violating the very principles the system was designed to promote. This is true in any time period and under any system, whether it is Thomas Jefferson using the law to own slaves, FDR authorizing Japanese internment camps with the express approval of the Supreme Court, or Senator McCarthy doing one better than Senator Grassley on the issue of insufficient patriotism. 

But why have politics at the ground level become so heated, so divisive? The power of television and images, magnified by greater technological access, plays a part, but the issue is simpler. Politicians who act as political peacocks, flaunting their colors rather than their principles to get elected, eventually need brighter feathers and louder calls to accomplish the same result. Senator Feinstein, a woman of substance, need not raise her voice at the podium--her experience and record speak for themselves. Only a man frightened that opponents may offer better siren songs bellows without thinking, and we can infer from Senator Grassley's behavior that Iowans may be looking for alternatives. Indeed, Senator Grassley's share of votes has been steadily declining: he was elected by a 70% share in 2004; a 64% share in 2010; and a 60% share in 2016. 

I started this article trying to educate liberal-minded readers but ended up scolding Senator Grassley and praising Senator Feinstein, even though Feinstein also voted for the war in Iraq. (See here for journalist Glenn Greenwald's numerous counterarguments against Feinstein.) My original intent was to share a thought experiment showing why American communities have become fractured. I will end with it below, though the main lesson I had hoped to impart should now be clear: in politics, the exercise of power is key, not the system or party itself. The thought experiment below may impart other lessons, and I leave it to you to determine the content of those lessons.

City 1 has 100 people, including 5 police officers and 5 firefighters. It is 100% white and Christian. 


City 2 has 100 people, including 5 police officers, 5 firefighters, and 5 grant-receiving non-profit organization officers to handle language translation, parks and recreation, and other social issues promoting assimilation and harmony. Its residents are a perfect mix of diversity, and I leave it to the reader to render his or her own demographic utopia. 

City 1 responds to each police call with an investigation. If an investigation does not occur or is not done to the citizen's satisfaction, citizens feel comfortable going to the mayor's office to ask for intervention or greater oversight. 

City 2 investigates only major crimes. Theft under 500 USD is recorded but not investigated due to allegedly insufficient resources. Complaints to the mayor go nowhere at first, but as petty thefts increase, the mayor is forced to take action. She cancels one of the nonprofit's grants and transfers the funds to a specialized unit investigating petty crime. The nonprofit lays off 5 people and criticizes the mayor for canceling the grant as well as the police department for not utilizing existing resources efficiently. The police criticize the nonprofit and hire a media manager to defend their conduct. Slogans ("All Thefts Matter") are chanted by both sides, and the city's readers and viewers see angry complaints on television and in print. After the backlog of petty thefts is finally resolved, the mayor reinstates the nonprofit's grant and unemployment returns to 1%. The mayor decides to issue a bond and raise taxes in the future to prevent similar conflict. Unbeknownst to her, some of the city's residents have left to City 1, citing less tension there. 

Even with its new entrants, City 1 realizes many of its young residents are leaving and decides to hire a consultant to create more "culture" to convince them to stay. The consultant recommends issuing grants to nonprofits to promote arts and culture and laying off a police officer to free up funding for the consultant's recommendations. The council, in a divided vote, accepts the consultant's recommendations. 

To handle the increased workload while maintaining morale, the police department decides it will not investigate thefts under 500 USD. Residents soon complain that outsiders have corrupted the city and say they no longer feel safe. The young and new employees hired by the nonprofits realize their funding may be pulled and criticize the police department's productivity, demanding the mayor look into police officers' schedules and use of time. Soon, residents who experienced petty theft refuse to listen to anyone who supports arts and culture projects and respond to criticism of police productivity with unwavering allegiance to law and order. There is even talk of supporting a new media channel dedicated to conservative values. 

The nonprofits continue to push forward with projects that provide the town with options other than big box stores and strip malls. The mayor wonders why he didn't just issue a bond or raise taxes, but he realizes his city is more conservative and disfavors debt. He asks the police department to change its policy but the police department, encouraged by national police unions, sues him, claiming the mayor's requests violate state law. City 1's lawyers now spend less time responding to day-to-day matters and more time on litigation. Soon, the lawyers request additional headcount, leaving the mayor looking into outside law firms and promising residents such fees will be temporary.

Will the mayor keep his job in the next election? What values other than self-restraint appear necessary for sustainable growth? 

Monday, March 12, 2018

Unintended Consequences and the Difficulty in Understanding the United States

State Statistics

Let's take two states. State "LI" has a pro-government spending bias. It spends much more on public welfare and education than conservative State "NT." Like many Southern states, NT has a history of de jure racism ("In 1870 the state Constitution was amended to prohibit interracial marriage.") and defied Brown vs. Board of Education by increasing privatization of education. As of 2008, 17 of its school districts continued to be under a court-supervised desegregation order

LI is the opposite--it was first to ratify the Thirteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution, which abolished slavery nationally. Other than housing laws, it did not participate in expressly racist legislation. A billionaire philanthropist built several prominent institutions, including a top-ranked private university, in the state. The country's first African-American president came from LI in 2008. 

NT also had a private philanthropist build a major private university, but unlike LI, it has no nationally-recognized public universities. In 2016, while LI voted for liberal presidential candidates, NT voted overwhelmingly for conservative candidates. 

As of 2016-2017, NT's per capita personal income was 44,317 USD annually, and LI's per capita personal income was 51,817 USD annually. NT's population was about 74 to 79% white; LI was more diverse, being 62 to 77% white. LI had higher union membership than NT: "In 2017, union members accounted for 15.0 percent of wage and salary workers in [LI], compared with 14.5 percent in 2016." NT, a right to work state, had union membership of around 5.7% in 2016. In 2013, NT spent 8,208 USD annually on primary and secondary school pupils; LI spent 12,288 USD annually.

You might say it's obvious LI is doing better than NT, but you'd be wrong. In 2015, LI had 863 homicides and 1,220 firearm deaths. Its infant mortality rate in 2016 was worse than the average American state, with some counties alarmingly worse. Although NT's infant mortality rate was actually higher than LI's, it had a lower homicide death rate


LI's pension deficit was the largest of all 50 states; in contrast, NT had one of the highest funding ratios. Even on citywide level, LI's Ogacihc was the worst city in terms of underfunding, while NT's Ellivhsan was one of the best (See pp. 22 and 23). 

Homeownership? NT prevails with 67.2% ownership in 2017 vs. LI's 65.4%. 

Don't count out LI, though: 

LI had a higher average ACT score of 20.7 (or 21.4, depending on which data set you use) compared to NT's 19.8. (Counterpoint: the average nationwide score is 21, and after adjusting for random factors, one could argue there's not much difference between the two states.) 

What about interracial marriage? Some NT cities (Agoonattahc) rank the worst/least on this measure, while one large metro in LI ranks among the best/most. 

Passport issuance? In 2017, LI had 791,802 passports (0.0618 rate) while NT had 242,532 (0.0361 rate). 

Except for pollution, most health statistics, including infant mortality, favor LI. 

What's the point of reviewing these statistics? Well, they don't actually show anything useful if you want to relocate. A person looking to buy a home would probably prefer NT's largest metro area over LI's, but someone interested in price appreciation and public transportation might prefer LI. 

Also, NT might have fewer homicides than LI, but what if it's because of underreporting or a corrupt coroner misclassifying deaths? What about police shootings of civilians? Did anyone think to consider divorce rates or the quality of public schools when factoring in local housing prices? How about the number of public parks and/or development-protected areas? 

We have all heard "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics," but it's important to highlight a mathematical aspect of capitalism few people understand: 1) it is much harder to maintain rising wages and disposable income than to control inflation in essential items; and 2) higher populations, especially if including many new entrants, impact data tremendously. Thus, NT might be a much better place to live today because its wages and wage growth are more likely to allow residents to buy a home than in LI, but no solid evidence indicates higher property taxes or corporate closures will make this true 10 to 15 years from now. In addition, if NT has gained thousands of new residents in the last few years, its supply/demand data will be skewed because there is no guarantee of continued inward-migration, and at some point, taxes or expenditures must rise to meet the increased population demand. 


Finally, although the data indicates NT should be less racially-tolerant than LI, a) it depends on which city you visit; and b) NT's general hospitality may trump any of its residents' underlying opinions about groups in general. More below on b): 

"Sure, up there [New York City] black and white work side by side. But at night the black goes home to his ghetto and the white to his suburb. Here in the South we've been living together for 250 years, talking to each other every day. That gives you something solid to build on." -- Mayor Johnny L. Ford [National Geographic (October 1975), pp. 569] 

"It struck me as notably ironic that Southerners could despise blacks so bitterly and yet live comfortably alongside them, while in the North people by and large did not mind blacks, even respected them as humans and wished them every success, just so long as they didn't have to mingle with them too freely." -- Bill Bryson [The Lost Continent, paperback, pp. 63 (1989)]

The lesson? Statistics do not provide useful guidance in evaluating a state because they are not set up to capture direct, honest feedback even at a local level, which means they cannot reliably predict inward or outward migration patterns. Even if one asks the right questions, experiences vary so much across different cities in the same state, it is difficult to get a clear picture on anything meaningful. Never before have we had so much data; never before has such data been so useless. The older I get, the more I realize economics and sociology need to be merged to be a useful discipline. 

Debt, Debt, Baby

Setting aside social and cultural dynamics, modern American capitalism works by capturing platforms and using debt to continue to gain market share. This model works only if interest rates remain low and if banks are willing to roll over maturing debt or if private equity investors are willing to loan/invest more funds. 

When someone complains Uber or Amazon are not as profitable as other companies, you can safely ignore them on macroeconomic issues--they don't know how the modern economy works. (Even Nokia needed 17 years before it turned a profit on electronics--and that was before any newfangled financial "innovation.") Indeed, most successful American cities have become financially successful because they've carved out some unsustainable federally-linked advantage (security spending, educational loans, ethanol subsidies) or loophole (segregation, lax antitrust enforcement, etc.). Seen this way, "capitalist" America is not much different from "socialist" China, except China's national government has recently become stricter, functioning as a proper check and balance against local corruption--and growth at any cost. 
America or China? From Duncan Clark's Alibaba (2016)

Today, a debt-fueled strategy might be essential in an era where countries from China to Singapore practice a hybrid public-private model, practically picking winners and losers by governmental association. Alibaba infamously transferred Alipay, an online payments business worth at least 1 billion USD into a structure held 100% by a Chinese domestic company "[t]o expedite obtaining an essential regulatory license." [See Duncan Clark's Alibaba (2016), Ch 11.] The payment to international investors was 51 million USD. Alipay--not Alibaba--subsequently "was the first of 27 [Chinese] companies to be issued licenses and was awarded license number 001" by the PBOC. [Id.] 

Seen in a non-ideological light, countries and municipalities that attract capital--especially at lower interest rates--and roll over debt without asset sales will be successful. It has nothing to do with democracy, socialism, or any other "ism." The modern world--from international relations to the smallest city--runs on debt and the perception and confidence such debt will be paid. Public-private partnerships, with their more assured outcomes, are probably the future, and America needs a strategy apart from overspending on military R&D, both domestically and internationally, then trickling down innovations through private companies to the civilian sector. 

In such a convoluted world, numbers and statistics are not as helpful as they should be because every entity, not just ratings agencies, has incentives to optimize the numbers. Given the necessity of a strong banking sector in a debt-fueled economy, America's 2008-2009 banking bailouts should now make sense, except the lack of substantive reform, especially in the "shadow banking" sector, foretells another crisis. Unsurprisingly, debt-fueled economies prioritize economic growth and productivity over all else because growth makes it easier for debts to be paid both directly (newer debtholders maintain the cycle) and indirectly (inflation in assets renders past debts less valuable). It is unclear whether younger generations in developed countries are willing to accept such a paradigm. 
From Marilynne Robinson's What Are We Doing Here? (2018)

More troubling, some states have used lower interest rates and debt to pay off vested interests such as government unions rather than investing in the future. LI's pension issues are one obvious consequence of such an approach as well as an example of unintended consequences. When the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, making it easier for tech companies to gain national and international market share, it did not intend for some states to handicap future generations by paying off vested or corrupt interests through complex political machinations. It may not have even intended the privatization that eventually came after such methods sapped cash flow from local and state budgets. Regardless of intentions, if growth must be maintained, especially through debt, then we must all "publish or perish," and quality and integrity aren't guaranteed in such single-minded productivity, either in products and people. I have spent much of my life studying numbers only to realize the "optimization bias" I mentioned earlier means any conclusions I've derived from "objective" data is inferior to an in-person daily stroll in an area. 
Jim Rogers, Street Smarts (2013)
What's Next?

If a paradigm deficient in quality or meaningfulness is an unintended economic result, how can we create a better one?  "The fundamental problem [of economics] is not our lack of information but our limited ability to process it." [Ha-Joon Chang, 23 Things They Don't Tell You about Capitalism (2010)] I've traveled extensively for two years and I have processed why developed countries are faltering. Their systems--economic, social, and cultural--no longer prioritize justice. As stated above, they prioritize debt and debt repayment, which require deference to banking and military sectors. Security is good, but it does not make the soup taste better. Let me explain more clearly.

Society 1 is able to have as much as it wants--as long as Societies 2 and 3 buy its loans/debt. Society 1 creates systems based on x, y, and z values--and then builds numerous institutions around those purported values. The problem is that Society 1, flush with almost unlimited possibilities because of its ability to issue debt, eventually forgets to cross-check whether its values--democracy, capitalism, meritocracy--are actually reflected in its institutions. As its institutions become larger and more entrenched, they rely on perception to increase numbers, and it becomes easier to use the media--especially visual images--to convince voters to go along. (
For example, even if Society 1's military has lost every non-Grenadian war since Vietnam, most recently in Syria, producers--financed partly by government money--will greenlight another Churchill or WWII movie.) 

Of course such maneuvering has limits. As it becomes more obvious something is wrong, distractions and misinformation are used to maintain debt aka the status quo. In such a world, having multiple layers of complexity becomes useful to survival even if not a single layer benefits non-insiders. 

Over time, a few people start to realize Society 1's true values aren't whatever it claims, such as freedom--it's the opposite. The inability to do certain things--copying IP, threatening harm, silencing speech, invading a private citizen's privacy, etc.--is a free society's foundation. The trick is achieving a balance where citizens don't rely on insurance companies and their lawyers to receive a fair, predictable result while avoiding a nanny state. As of 2018, the balance in America, er Society 1, had gone so far awry, the following disclaimer would arrive from a public university after having paid 450 USD for event tickets: 

For All Ticket Purchases: The Division of Intercollegiate Athletics of the University of Iowa does not guarantee the availability of tickets, and reserves the right to modify or cancel any of the conditions displayed on this website, including ticket pricing or availability, at its discretion and without prior notice. If the University does not fill a ticket order or request, it will refund the purchase price or credit the customer's charge account, and is not responsible for any other damages or fees which might be incurred. By using this website, you agree that any ticket transactions with the University of Iowa are governed by the laws of the State of Iowa, without regard to conflict of laws principle.

Why bother having a website selling tickets if there's no guarantee you'll get the ticket you paid for? The Iowa, er, Awoi, lawyer did a good job for his/her client, but a terrible job for society and America's citizens. Historians will ask whether Americans forgot that all three branches of government, along with the fourth pillar of media, were required for a functioning government. Debt makes a leading appearance here, too, because new lawyers with 100,000 USD in student loans will need to pay off the loans before valuing justice and fairness above personal preservation. Lawyers are fond of saying the law doesn't create justice, only a chance at justice. Yet, as legal fees, one-sided agreements, and complexity (look at the indemnification clause in any online agreement) increase, one can argue such chances have disappeared for most people. 

Without all branches fulfilling their roles, some Americans saw decline as early as 2009: 

“We are watching the decline and fall of the United States as an economic power — not hypothetically, but as we speak,” said Craig R. Barrett, the chairman of Intel.

While traveling, I have wondered what America will leave behind as its economic empire declines, and until now, I have omitted an important detail. China will indeed become the world's economic superpower, but it does not seem able to replicate the ideals America brought the world in just 55 years. A country that jails Liu Xiaobo--author of the words below--will never be admired except grudgingly, even if Xiaobo is clearly a deluded, Western-backed warmonger. 

Throughout all these years that I have lived without freedom, our love was full of bitterness imposed by outside circumstances, but as I savor its aftertaste, it remains boundless. I am serving my sentence in a tangible prison, while you wait in the intangible prison of the heart. Your love is the sunlight that leaps over high walls and penetrates the iron bars of my prison window, stroking every inch of my skin, warming every cell of my body, allowing me to always keep peace, openness, and brightness in my heart, and filling every minute of my time in prison with meaning. My love for you, on the other hand, is so full of remorse and regret that it at times makes me stagger under its weight. I am an insensate stone in the wilderness, whipped by fierce wind and torrential rain, so cold that no one dares touch me. But my love is solid and sharp, capable of piercing through any obstacle. Even if I were crushed into powder, I would still use my ashes to embrace you.

Even Singapore, a healthy blend of American and Chinese influence, jails Jehovah's Witnesses and bans their literature. For all its practicality, Singapore's Chinese elite cannot bring themselves to make an exception to military conscription for a well-established religion--an issue America resolved in 1943: "Those who begin coercive elimination of dissent soon find themselves exterminating dissenters. Compulsory unification of opinion achieves only the unanimity of the graveyard." (Supreme Court Justice Robert Jackson)

It is true that America jailed Martin Luther King, Jr. and spies on its own people with the same fervor as East Germany's Stasi, but MLK was released and Snowden is still alive. The perpetrators of Abu Ghraib may not all have gone to jail, nor received appropriately lengthy sentences when convicted, but because of American media (and the delightful Errol Morris), no decent person hears the names Lynndie England, Charles Graner, or Megan M. Ambuhl without feeling pity and outrage. 

You see, every country is the same in the sense all of them lurch towards entropy, with the rate of decline contingent on its people's ability to reverse poor decisions and--apologies for the colloquialism--prevent "full-retard." It's not coincidental that America's decline and China's rise occurred when decisions post-9/11 were not reversed in a timely manner. Even before Abu Ghraib; the overbroad Patriot Act; Guantanamo Bay's murky legal status; and the trillion-dollar illegal invasion of a former allied country, America's failure to ensure a match between its institutions and purported values led to a mishmash of unmanageable fiefdoms, none of which were truly free, and--more importantly--none of which could be shut down quickly if maintaining harmful trajectories (such as the cementing of the military-industrial complex). From The Atlantic (September 2016), by Steven Brill

DHS--which has had seven undersecretaries or acting undersecretaries for management--has perennially been on the GAO’s list of agencies whose overall management is considered “at risk.” From the beginning, the agencies thrown into the new superagency fought to keep their turf, often calling on congressional allies to help. “At one meeting early on, I mumbled something about why should the Coast Guard and Customs each have their own helicopters and planes,” [DHS's] Tom Ridge recalls. “Why couldn’t they combine to purchase the same stuff? Within a few days, we had calls from Capitol Hill warning us not to mess with the Coast Guard’s or Customs’ procurements.” (The two agencies still have their own air forces.)


In hindsight, the failure of America's lawyers and journalists to expeditiously reverse the mistakes of the executive and legislative branches was the beginning of the end of America's reputation. No nation can withstand hypocrisy for long; humanity's DNA rejects it like a lethal virus. But--and there was always going to be a "but"--at least America, in purporting to adhere to certain values, gave room for its idealists to reach for them. 

Interestingly, as of 2018, China also prioritizes economic success and uses debt to turbocharge its economy, but as the creditor of over one trillion USD, its export-driven economy has unique advantages as well as risks (currency devaluation, tariffs, etc.). If it does not continue to create jobs, why should anyone with an independent streak stay if they can leave? Countries like the UAE do not do well on the "daily stroll" test despite financial prosperity because they have not assimilated their best talent. Similarly, China's behavior towards nonconformists will rob them of the privilege of being emulated, which will limit its ability to keep its best people. There is a reason a young Jack Ma (Ma Yun) learned more in Australia than in China and does not trust people from Shanghai, Taiwan, or Hong Kong. 
From Clark's Alibaba (2016)

In almost every country, the best residents are from somewhere else or have developed their ideas elsewhere, and in any time period, it will always be much easier to steal talent than to create it. Consequently, nations that do not provide the appropriate balance of security and freedom lose automatically because they do not promulgate values to be emulated as long as they silence critical or nonconformist voices. The act of silencing people who think differently repels the most talented, who are often outsiders. No amount of prosperity can resolve the hypocrisy of telling others they know what is best for them while expelling people who question the status quo. 

America may be in decline, it may have the world's highest incarceration rates, but it continues to uphold values other than financial prosperity. Such values, even if allegedly secondary, allow nonconformists to prosper, who then contribute to art, literature, sports, movies, and other distractions that may eventually provide non-obvious opportunities for cohesion, innovation, or collaboration. China may be on the rise, but as long as it chills nonconformity, it will lose talent to other countries, giving competitors the upper hand. 

One Big Family: Stupidity, Insanity, & Idealism

"I never dreamt that I would get to be / The creature that I always meant to be." -- Pet Shop Boys, "Being Boring." 

I've said before Trump was elected because American voters rightfully realized if choosing between stupidity and insanity, at least insanity can provide advantages. (Had Bernie Sanders been the Democratic nominee, the election would have been a fair fight.) The difficulty in understanding the United States is that while it will make mistakes, including incredibly stupid ones, idealism and insanity are fraternal twins. It takes some level of delusion to think you can change the world, to ignore the vested interests already at the door ready to block your efforts. Weak countries tend to see one of the twins and not the other. They cannot see that by censoring one twin, they cause the other--and perhaps a level-headed cousin or two--to flee or opt out of public affairs, leaving a space that will be occupied by authoritarians who do not believe the purpose of security is to create diverse meritocracies with opportunities for all citizens. Humanity never knows in the present tense which fraternal twin it is dealing with, nor which extended family members will make positive contributions, but we do know America has benefitted the most from the world's migration in the 21st century, a migration that would not have occurred without purporting to stand for certain values. In the end, America's lasting contribution to the annals of knowledge might be far more than the fact that meritocracies are aided by "uninhibited, robust, and wide-open [public debate that] may well include vehement, caustic, and sometimes unpleasantly sharp attacks on government and public officials." It might be that without such an approach, the best migrants will not come, or if they come, will not assimilate. 

Any man more right than his neighbors should not constitute a majority in his neighborhood only if he lives by himself in the woods. 

Conclusion

Will Trump's insanity be better than Hillary's stupidity? As long as residents lack free mobility, which requires legal reciprocity, it doesn't matter. "Voting with one's feet" is not possible until immigration laws worldwide are modified, and even then, any reform will be based on subjective factors, an imperfect endeavor. Countries claiming to value human beings must work together to increase mobility, the ultimate check and balance on power's tendency to make mistakes. In the end, one cannot favor freedom without giving credit to its midwife, mobility, and the world's failure to properly resettle refugees makes me pessimistic for the future of freedom and justice. 

I also wanted to share what I've learned from my travels, but as usual, I've wandered far astray. I really only have three lessons: 

1. Living with a member of the opposite gender, even only for one week, changes your body's chemistry. 

2. There is no ideal place. Everywhere has tradeoffs, and the act of traveling makes it easier to determine what you really value. For example, I've known I value clean air since I traveled to India in 2010

3.  Living close to farmers means everything you eat tastes delicious--and is often cheaper because third-party transportation costs are absent. 

My travels are not over. I enjoyed Mexico City 
and Guanajuato city and will be visiting Houston tomorrow, then Iowa City in April. I look forward to touring several Iowa cities (believe it or not, Iowa has one of America's oldest surviving mosques), and I'm interested in seeing how the generally conservative state will respond to my penchant for stirring the pot. That's my way of saying if Terry Brands punches me at the Wrestling World Cup, I probably deserved it. I'm still going to yell "Alireza Dabir" if I run into him. I want to see how Middle America treats its dissidents. 

© Matthew Mehdi Rafat (2018)

Update on April 11, 2018: I saw one of the Brands brothers in Iowa City, and only then did I realize a flaw in my plan: Tom and Terry are twins, and I can't tell them apart. 

Update on April 18, 2018: According to Leila Fadel in the May 2018 edition of National Geographic, "The first mosque was in North Dakota. Iowa is home to the oldest surviving place of worship built for Muslims in 1924, with an immigration act that barred people from Asia." 

Update on August 14, 2020: Though Liu Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, in fact he has consistently supported American wars. According to The Guardian's Barry Sautman and Yan Hairong, Liu "has endorsed the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and he applauded the Vietnam and Korean wars retrospectively in a 2001 essay." Nevertheless, the authors write, "Imprisoning Liu was entirely unnecessary."