Just keeping my readers posted. I sold most of my stocks and mutual funds today. Tomorrow, April 23, 2009, the government will release two sets of important numbers: one, unemployment claims; and two, Existing Home Sales. It is possible these numbers will be quite good. I doubt it.
On April 1, 2009, I told my readers that government action would make the market rise. As I predicted, it did. The S&P 500 rose from 811.08 to 843.55, a gain of 4% in just three weeks.
I still believe the S&P 500 will, sometime this year, hit my original target of between 920 and 950; however, I don't see much point in being in this market right this second. My personal risk analysis can't countenance holding mostly equities for a potential 10% gain over the next six months. I believe I will have another opportunity to jump back into the market.
If the numbers released tomorrow are good, the market will continue to rise, and I will have missed out on potentially major gains. That is a risk I am willing to take. Staying mostly in equities right now, without knowing the home sales numbers, seems too dangerous.
My short-term trading strategy has limited my losses. My retirement funds have declined approximately 14% from December 7, 2007 to April 22, 2009. (I don't know the exact percentage. Throughout the year, I deposit additional monies in my retirement accounts, which distorts the ultimate percentage even after accounting for the new deposits.) The S&P 500 has declined around 44% during this same time period. Perhaps buy-and-hold investors will laugh last, but for active traders, cash seems like a safer place to be right now than equities.
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, I do not provide investment advice, nor do I make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss, or any other result.
"And if an epitaph be my story, I'd have a short one ready for my own: I had a lover's quarrel with the world." -- Robert Frost
Showing posts with label Stocks Update. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stocks Update. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
How Did My X-Mas Shopping Go?
On December 18, 2008, I posted my personal X-Mas shopping list for stocks. Although I intended to hold the stocks for at least a year, I made some changes, taking some losses to raise cash and to buy Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). Let's review:
12/18/08
CSCO = 16.66
EWZ = 35.95
INTC = 14.26
KO = 45.18
MXIM = 12.00
WFC = 29.65
S&P 500 = 885.28
DJIA = 8,604.99
Nasdaq = 1,552.37
3/26/09
CSCO = 17.31 (+3.9%)
EWZ = 40.85 (+1.3%)
INTC = 15.82 (+10.9%)
KO = 44.85 (-0.7%)
MXIM = 14.11 (+17.58%)
WFC = 15.95 (-46.2%)
S&P 500 = 832.86 (negative 5.9%)
DJIA = 7924.56
Nasdaq = 1587.00
Overall, the return on the above portfolio is a negative 2.2% (not including dividends). This return beats the S&P 500, but my victory is admittedly Pyrrhic. If I had avoided Wells Fargo, I would be doing quite well. In fact, I bought Wells Fargo stock all the way down to 9 dollars and recently sold at around 14 dollars, taking a loss. I just sold Intel and Maxim, too, but plan on buying them back at lower prices. The recent run-up seems too much, too soon. Even so, my major holdings, all in mutual funds, are untouched and mostly in stocks.
I am worried about the T. Rowe Price Latin America mutual fund (PRLAX) and iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ). Despite its name, the T. Rowe Price Latin America fund holds Brazilian stocks. I am concerned because Brazilian government projections seem overly optimistic; demand for commodities continues to be soft; and political rivals appear all-too-willing to undermine President Luiz Silva's authority.
Right now, the above list is not representative of my major holdings. I continue to trade actively in my retirement accounts.
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, I do not provide investment advice, nor do I make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss, or any other result.
Update on 3/27/09: an astute seekingalpha.com reader points out that my math above is incorrect (and in my favor):
"You need to check your math. On EWZ, a price move from $35.95 to $40.85 is 13.63%, not 1.3%."
That, my friends, is why I'm a lawyer. I leave the math to the professionals and the expert witnesses.
12/18/08
CSCO = 16.66
EWZ = 35.95
INTC = 14.26
KO = 45.18
MXIM = 12.00
WFC = 29.65
S&P 500 = 885.28
DJIA = 8,604.99
Nasdaq = 1,552.37
3/26/09
CSCO = 17.31 (+3.9%)
EWZ = 40.85 (+1.3%)
INTC = 15.82 (+10.9%)
KO = 44.85 (-0.7%)
MXIM = 14.11 (+17.58%)
WFC = 15.95 (-46.2%)
S&P 500 = 832.86 (negative 5.9%)
DJIA = 7924.56
Nasdaq = 1587.00
Overall, the return on the above portfolio is a negative 2.2% (not including dividends). This return beats the S&P 500, but my victory is admittedly Pyrrhic. If I had avoided Wells Fargo, I would be doing quite well. In fact, I bought Wells Fargo stock all the way down to 9 dollars and recently sold at around 14 dollars, taking a loss. I just sold Intel and Maxim, too, but plan on buying them back at lower prices. The recent run-up seems too much, too soon. Even so, my major holdings, all in mutual funds, are untouched and mostly in stocks.
I am worried about the T. Rowe Price Latin America mutual fund (PRLAX) and iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ). Despite its name, the T. Rowe Price Latin America fund holds Brazilian stocks. I am concerned because Brazilian government projections seem overly optimistic; demand for commodities continues to be soft; and political rivals appear all-too-willing to undermine President Luiz Silva's authority.
Right now, the above list is not representative of my major holdings. I continue to trade actively in my retirement accounts.
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, I do not provide investment advice, nor do I make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss, or any other result.
Update on 3/27/09: an astute seekingalpha.com reader points out that my math above is incorrect (and in my favor):
"You need to check your math. On EWZ, a price move from $35.95 to $40.85 is 13.63%, not 1.3%."
That, my friends, is why I'm a lawyer. I leave the math to the professionals and the expert witnesses.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Stocks Update: Keeping Score
A year ago--December 7, 2007, to be exact--a good friend and I started arguing about how to invest. My friend and I don't usually agree on stocks--he's more of a technical analyst, and I'm more into macro-economics. For example, he hates Coca-Cola (KO), saying he'd never invest in sugar water, while I like its consistent dividend and international business. He looks for major growth stories, while I look primarily at balance sheets and avoid companies with too much debt. When he and I have agreed on stocks, however, we've never been wrong, at least not in the short-term. Still, we decided to resolve our differences by opening up virtual trading accounts to compete against each other and also decided to keep track of our actual investment performance. This way, if we continued to argue, we would have both actual and virtual evidence to support our investing styles.
I am winning in both the virtual stock games (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Homepage.aspx), but that's because I kept most of my investments in cash, while my friend bought commodity-based companies.
In real life, I have been tracking my retirement accounts. My friend won't tell me exactly how badly he's doing, but apparently, I'm doing better (I'm down "way more" than that, he told me, after receiving news of my percentage drop). I am not gloating at all--I had positive performance through the first week of September 2008. I should have sold everything then, but didn't.
As a result, from December 7, 2007 to December 5, 2008, my retirement portfolio has declined around 23.5%. I can't provide an exact percentage, because I added monies and invested them at different times throughout 2008. In fact, I made so many trades in my 401(k), T. Rowe Price barred me from trading again until late January 2009.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 declined 41.77% during the same time period (December 7, 2007 (1,504.66) to December 5, 2008 (876.07).
So, I beat the S&P 500 by around 18 percentage points. Ordinarily, I'd be elated, but this year, for obvious reasons, I am not happy at all.
I am looking forward to continuing the competition for the next twenty years. My prize in winning against my friend this year? A Peet's (PEET) coffee of my choice. I do love their eggnog lattes, but I was so close to having positive performance, it will be painful to sip that latte. I am in my early 30's, so I have plenty of time to ride out this recession. But oh, what a difference a few months makes.
Update: my non-retirement accounts should be in positive territory for 2008, because I am typically risk-averse with my liquid assets. I am now 100% in money market funds in my non-retirement accounts. Excepting day-trading and short-term trades, I have probably kept 80%+ of my liquid assets in money market funds this year. Off the top of my head, my two worst performers, in terms of actual monetary losses, have been JMBA and YHOO.
I am winning in both the virtual stock games (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Homepage.aspx), but that's because I kept most of my investments in cash, while my friend bought commodity-based companies.
In real life, I have been tracking my retirement accounts. My friend won't tell me exactly how badly he's doing, but apparently, I'm doing better (I'm down "way more" than that, he told me, after receiving news of my percentage drop). I am not gloating at all--I had positive performance through the first week of September 2008. I should have sold everything then, but didn't.
As a result, from December 7, 2007 to December 5, 2008, my retirement portfolio has declined around 23.5%. I can't provide an exact percentage, because I added monies and invested them at different times throughout 2008. In fact, I made so many trades in my 401(k), T. Rowe Price barred me from trading again until late January 2009.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 declined 41.77% during the same time period (December 7, 2007 (1,504.66) to December 5, 2008 (876.07).
So, I beat the S&P 500 by around 18 percentage points. Ordinarily, I'd be elated, but this year, for obvious reasons, I am not happy at all.
I am looking forward to continuing the competition for the next twenty years. My prize in winning against my friend this year? A Peet's (PEET) coffee of my choice. I do love their eggnog lattes, but I was so close to having positive performance, it will be painful to sip that latte. I am in my early 30's, so I have plenty of time to ride out this recession. But oh, what a difference a few months makes.
Update: my non-retirement accounts should be in positive territory for 2008, because I am typically risk-averse with my liquid assets. I am now 100% in money market funds in my non-retirement accounts. Excepting day-trading and short-term trades, I have probably kept 80%+ of my liquid assets in money market funds this year. Off the top of my head, my two worst performers, in terms of actual monetary losses, have been JMBA and YHOO.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
A Long Sigh
My poor, poor Roth IRA. I am losing around 2,000 dollars each in Yahoo (YHOO) and a Swiss fund (SWZ). Almost all my other holdings are also losing money. On the bright side, if the aforementioned two investments do well over the next year, along with my S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index Fund (PFF), my Roth IRA will be somewhat healthy again. Right now, it's on life support. Five years of gains wiped out.
I wish I had more retirement savings to invest. As crazy as it sounds right now, I'd love to buy more stocks in my retirement accounts.
In my non-retirement brokerage account, which is around 90% in money market funds, I picked up some Starbucks (SBUX), Symantec (SYMC), Nvidia (NVDA), 3M (MMM), and ConocoPhillips (COP), and Citigroup (C). I wanted to buy more Cisco (CSCO) but chickened out.
Update on November 21, 2008:
The S&P 500 lost 46.8% from 12/7/07 to 11/21/08 [from December 7, 2007 (1504.66) to November 21, 2008 (800.03)]
In that same time period, my retirement accounts declined in value 27.9%. Although I am beating the averages in my retirement account, I don't feel happy at all.
I wish I had more retirement savings to invest. As crazy as it sounds right now, I'd love to buy more stocks in my retirement accounts.
In my non-retirement brokerage account, which is around 90% in money market funds, I picked up some Starbucks (SBUX), Symantec (SYMC), Nvidia (NVDA), 3M (MMM), and ConocoPhillips (COP), and Citigroup (C). I wanted to buy more Cisco (CSCO) but chickened out.
Update on November 21, 2008:
The S&P 500 lost 46.8% from 12/7/07 to 11/21/08 [from December 7, 2007 (1504.66) to November 21, 2008 (800.03)]
In that same time period, my retirement accounts declined in value 27.9%. Although I am beating the averages in my retirement account, I don't feel happy at all.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Stocks Update (November 4, 2008)
I haven't done a "Stocks Update" in a long time. To save time, I am going to list only the individual stocks I own in retirement accounts that exceed 2,000 dollars. As of today, November 4, 2008, here is the list:
Dominion Resources, Inc. (D)
EMC Corporation (EMC)
Swiss Francs ETF (FXF)
Intel Corporation (INTC)
U.S. Preferred Stock Index (PFF)
Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc. (SWZ)
Vanguard Pacific Stock ETF (VPL)
Utilities Select SPDR (XLU)
Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO)
I wish I owned more General Electric (GE) and Johnson and Johnson (JNJ). My strategy in my retirement accounts is to own stocks or ETFs with high dividend yields. So far, my biggest loser is Yahoo (YHOO). I am losing around $1,100 dollars on the stock, which isn't terrible, but certainly not ideal. I just saw a prominent Microsoft (MSFT) ad on Yahoo's front page, so perhaps Microsoft and Yahoo are on more cordial terms these days, which may lead to some form of a buyout.
Dominion Resources, Inc. (D)
EMC Corporation (EMC)
Swiss Francs ETF (FXF)
Intel Corporation (INTC)
U.S. Preferred Stock Index (PFF)
Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc. (SWZ)
Vanguard Pacific Stock ETF (VPL)
Utilities Select SPDR (XLU)
Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO)
I wish I owned more General Electric (GE) and Johnson and Johnson (JNJ). My strategy in my retirement accounts is to own stocks or ETFs with high dividend yields. So far, my biggest loser is Yahoo (YHOO). I am losing around $1,100 dollars on the stock, which isn't terrible, but certainly not ideal. I just saw a prominent Microsoft (MSFT) ad on Yahoo's front page, so perhaps Microsoft and Yahoo are on more cordial terms these days, which may lead to some form of a buyout.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Stocks Update
I just did the math, and from December 7, 2007 to today, October 24, 2008, I've lost around 24% in my retirement funds.
Remember, if your accounts decrease by 10%, you need to make more than 10% to break even. Thus, my portfolio has to go up 32% so I can get back to where I was in December 2007. Sigh.
Update on October 27, 2008: another blogger is in the same boat:
http://escapebrooklyn.blogspot.com/2008/10/sounds-good-in-theory.html
Remember, if your accounts decrease by 10%, you need to make more than 10% to break even. Thus, my portfolio has to go up 32% so I can get back to where I was in December 2007. Sigh.
Update on October 27, 2008: another blogger is in the same boat:
http://escapebrooklyn.blogspot.com/2008/10/sounds-good-in-theory.html
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Market Gyrations
I sold off several positions on Tuesday. I wanted to do a stocks update, but I am in the middle of trial prep, so I will offer only my remaining open positions over 2,000 dollars:
EMC
EZU
PFF
SWZ
YHOO
My biggest loser thus far? Yahoo (YHOO). Unfortunately, I continued to average down, and my average buy price is around 18. The lesson? Never catch a falling knife, no matter how cheap the stock seems.
EMC
EZU
PFF
SWZ
YHOO
My biggest loser thus far? Yahoo (YHOO). Unfortunately, I continued to average down, and my average buy price is around 18. The lesson? Never catch a falling knife, no matter how cheap the stock seems.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Stocks Update: October 13, 2008
The market went up dramatically today, but because it went down 20% last week, most people are still down at least 10% or more.
I made over 600 dollars with my short term Morgan Stanley trade, but it didn't reach the 2000 dollar mark, so the trade is not included below. I had bought only 100 shares at 8 dollars/share last Friday.
I sold my GOOG too early. Had I sold just two hours later than I did, I would have made 2000 dollars, but I dumped as soon as I broke even. As they say, better luck next time.
(I hold EMC and Yahoo in two different accounts, so the percentages below for those two positions are slightly inaccurate.)
Open Positions
CCT = -16.77
EMC = -12.41
EZU = -25.52
GXC = -15.23
MMM = -5.32
SWZ = -22.24
VPL = -22.49
YHOO = -21.52
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 17.69%]
[141.5 / 8]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
IF = -49.00 [sold 10/13/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
MGM = - 4.17 [10/3/08 - 10/13/08]
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 6.94%]
[-104.07 / 15 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = 0% (excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]; GOOG = 0% (negligible percentage, excluded from avg), [sold on 8/13/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%); KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; MMM (0.5%); MOS (10.4%) [10/6/08 to 10/8/08]; MRK (0.1%); NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; STT (2.68%) [10/1/08 to 10/3/08]; STT (0.4%) [10/3/08 to 10/7/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.57%]
[60.78 / 17 trades; as of 10/8/08]
Daytrades:
C = +11.49 (09/01/08)
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
STT = +0.3
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 3.35%]
16.79/5
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 29.57%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to late-day October 13, 2008 (975.89)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
I made over 600 dollars with my short term Morgan Stanley trade, but it didn't reach the 2000 dollar mark, so the trade is not included below. I had bought only 100 shares at 8 dollars/share last Friday.
I sold my GOOG too early. Had I sold just two hours later than I did, I would have made 2000 dollars, but I dumped as soon as I broke even. As they say, better luck next time.
(I hold EMC and Yahoo in two different accounts, so the percentages below for those two positions are slightly inaccurate.)
Open Positions
CCT = -16.77
EMC = -12.41
EZU = -25.52
GXC = -15.23
MMM = -5.32
SWZ = -22.24
VPL = -22.49
YHOO = -21.52
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 17.69%]
[141.5 / 8]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
IF = -49.00 [sold 10/13/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
MGM = - 4.17 [10/3/08 - 10/13/08]
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 6.94%]
[-104.07 / 15 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = 0% (excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]; GOOG = 0% (negligible percentage, excluded from avg), [sold on 8/13/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%); KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; MMM (0.5%); MOS (10.4%) [10/6/08 to 10/8/08]; MRK (0.1%); NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; STT (2.68%) [10/1/08 to 10/3/08]; STT (0.4%) [10/3/08 to 10/7/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.57%]
[60.78 / 17 trades; as of 10/8/08]
Daytrades:
C = +11.49 (09/01/08)
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
STT = +0.3
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 3.35%]
16.79/5
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 29.57%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to late-day October 13, 2008 (975.89)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Stocks Update, October 3, 2008
What a crazy day. After the House passed the bailout bill, the stock market actually went down. I made several trades and managed to do reasonably well, except I re-bought STT too soon after selling. I am currently experiencing a loss on STT and hope to sell within two weeks.
Also, the percentages for EMC and Yahoo are slightly off, because I dipped into my non-retirement accounts to buy some shares. I am losing a few hundred dollars on the trades in my non-retirement funds, but nothing that significantly impacts the percentages below.
I added MGM to my open positions at about 2,000 dollars' worth. Vegas relies on now-nervous California citizens for much of its income, but I am willing to bet a small amount that Vegas has some more tricks up its sleeve. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Dubai provide the 500 billion dollars needed to complete the latest MGM project. I still don't like MGM's CEO, J. Terrence Lanni, so I probably won't add to my MGM position.
My major positions are now STT, YHOO, SWZ, and GXC. Yahoo stock seems priced far too low.
Open Positions
CCT = -7.95
EMC = -13.58
EZU = -16.73
GXC = -12.15
MGM = -3.45
IF = -33.37
STT = -8.45 (afterhours price)
SWZ = -12.62
VPL = -13.80
YHOO = -16.09
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 13.82%]
[138.19/10]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; MOS (10.4%) [10/6/08 to 10/8/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; STT (2.68%) [10/1/08 to 10/3/08]; STT (0.4%) [10/3/08 to 10/7/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.57%]
[60.78 / 17 trades; as of 10/8/08]
Daytrades:
C = +11.49 (09/01/08)
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
STT = +0.3
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 3.35%]
16.79/5
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 20.67%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to October 3, 2008 (1099.23)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Also, the percentages for EMC and Yahoo are slightly off, because I dipped into my non-retirement accounts to buy some shares. I am losing a few hundred dollars on the trades in my non-retirement funds, but nothing that significantly impacts the percentages below.
I added MGM to my open positions at about 2,000 dollars' worth. Vegas relies on now-nervous California citizens for much of its income, but I am willing to bet a small amount that Vegas has some more tricks up its sleeve. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Dubai provide the 500 billion dollars needed to complete the latest MGM project. I still don't like MGM's CEO, J. Terrence Lanni, so I probably won't add to my MGM position.
My major positions are now STT, YHOO, SWZ, and GXC. Yahoo stock seems priced far too low.
Open Positions
CCT = -7.95
EMC = -13.58
EZU = -16.73
GXC = -12.15
MGM = -3.45
IF = -33.37
STT = -8.45 (afterhours price)
SWZ = -12.62
VPL = -13.80
YHOO = -16.09
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 13.82%]
[138.19/10]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; MOS (10.4%) [10/6/08 to 10/8/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; STT (2.68%) [10/1/08 to 10/3/08]; STT (0.4%) [10/3/08 to 10/7/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.57%]
[60.78 / 17 trades; as of 10/8/08]
Daytrades:
C = +11.49 (09/01/08)
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
STT = +0.3
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 3.35%]
16.79/5
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 20.67%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to October 3, 2008 (1099.23)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Monday, September 29, 2008
"Blame it on the River"
The blog, "The Pendulum Swings," has one of the best macro-views of the current financial crisis:
http://tradecoholdco.wordpress.com/2008/08/27/blame-it-on-the-river-not-on-the-bank/
Today, Congress failed to pass the bailout bill (the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008), causing the Dow to drop 700+ points. The Nasdaq took an even harder hit, falling over 9%.
I took the opportunity to add to some positions. Some positions I had partially sold two months ago returned above the 2,000 dollar threshold, so I am re-including them on the Stocks Update. Below are percentages as of 12:25PM on September 29, 2008. It's not a pretty sight, but the open positions are in retirement accounts, so ten years from now, I hope to have the last laugh.
Open Positions
CCT = -13.86
EMC = -13.88
EZU = -15.73
GXC = -13.92
IF = -29.79
SWZ = -12.34
VPL = -11.24
YHOO = -12.86
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 15.44%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; [GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.49%]
[41.9 / 12 trades; doesn't include GOOG trade on 9/30]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 18.82%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day September 22, 2008 (1124.84)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
http://tradecoholdco.wordpress.com/2008/08/27/blame-it-on-the-river-not-on-the-bank/
Today, Congress failed to pass the bailout bill (the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008), causing the Dow to drop 700+ points. The Nasdaq took an even harder hit, falling over 9%.
I took the opportunity to add to some positions. Some positions I had partially sold two months ago returned above the 2,000 dollar threshold, so I am re-including them on the Stocks Update. Below are percentages as of 12:25PM on September 29, 2008. It's not a pretty sight, but the open positions are in retirement accounts, so ten years from now, I hope to have the last laugh.
Open Positions
CCT = -13.86
EMC = -13.88
EZU = -15.73
GXC = -13.92
IF = -29.79
SWZ = -12.34
VPL = -11.24
YHOO = -12.86
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 15.44%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; [GOOG (5.4) [9/29 - 9/30]]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.49%]
[41.9 / 12 trades; doesn't include GOOG trade on 9/30]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 18.82%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day September 22, 2008 (1124.84)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Stocks Update, 9/22/08
After the big run-up last week, I sold some of my positions. Malaysia's political turmoil bothered me enough to sell EWM. If the news stories are to be believed, the majority Malay population appears to be having some conflicts with the generally more affluent Chinese and Indian citizens. Also, while politics can get bad in the U.S., you don't see a ruling party trying to jail their opposition through a criminal lawsuit involving allegations of sodomy. I feel sorry for the Malaysians, who have to see a wonderful country's image get sullied by these political troubles. Yahoo's (YHOO) decline is also bothering me. First, a hacker gets access into Gov. Palin's Yahoo email account; then today, Microsoft (MSFT) announces it is spending 40 billion dollars to buy back its stock, taking available funds away from a potential acquisition. I will sit tight with Yahoo, but this kind of continued mismanagement is troublesome. Prices below are mid-day numbers on September 22, 2008. My open positions track the S&P 500 exactly at a negative 11.21%. The list of trades below includes only positions involving at least 2,000 dollars.
Open Positions
EZU = -8.34
GXC = -7.97
IF = -22.1
SWZ = -12.68
YHOO = -4.98
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 11.21%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.49%]
[41.9 / 12 trades]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 11.21%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day September 22, 2008 (1230.30)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Open Positions
EZU = -8.34
GXC = -7.97
IF = -22.1
SWZ = -12.68
YHOO = -4.98
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 11.21%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
EWM =-11.61 [sold 9/22/08]
EWS = -12.98 [sold 9/22/08]
GE = -6.4
GLD = +8.61 [sold 9/22/08]
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
KOL = -10.36
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4
[Overall Record for 7 days+ trades: lost an average of 3.92%]
[-50.90 / 13 trades]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: gained an avg of 3.49%]
[41.9 / 12 trades]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 11.21%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day September 22, 2008 (1230.30)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Stocks Update, 9/17/2008
Sigh. My open positions are tracking the market's decline. The market has humbled us all.
Open Positions
EWM =-19.88%
EWS = -21.60
EZU = -15.38
GLD = +4.83
GXC = -23.81
IF = -31.02
KOL = -23.87
SWZ = -16.29
YHOO = -5.58
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 16.96%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record for 7 day+ trades: Lost an average of 2.82%]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08] [Overall Record excludes recent KOL sale]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: Gained an avg of 2.36%]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 16.5%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day September 9, 2008 (1156.39)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Open Positions
EWM =-19.88%
EWS = -21.60
EZU = -15.38
GLD = +4.83
GXC = -23.81
IF = -31.02
KOL = -23.87
SWZ = -16.29
YHOO = -5.58
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 16.96%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record for 7 day+ trades: Lost an average of 2.82%]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), KOL (13.2%) [9/17/08 to 9/19/08]; NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08] [Overall Record excludes recent KOL sale]
[Overall Record for ultra short-term 2 to 7 days trades: Gained an avg of 2.36%]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record for daytrades: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 16.5%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day September 9, 2008 (1156.39)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Stocks Update, 9/9/2008
Today was a terrible day for the market and for investors in the market. One my major holdings, KOL, declined around 9% today. So much for diversification being the key to stock market gains--gold, oil, tech, and international markets all declined today on a possible Lehman Brothers (LEH) liquidity problem.
Nothing new to report trade-wise, except I sold most of my CCT position, netting a positive gain. I am not including the gain below. Although I still own 75 shares, my holdings are below the required 2,000 dollar threshold for inclusion in this blog.
I picked up 1000 shares of TTWO today and will look to sell this week.
Since June 2007, my retirement accounts moved today from being in the black to slightly in the red. I am not happy, but I keep reminding myself that I am well-diversified and should have a long term investment horizon. I am not sure if we've experienced "capitulation" yet, but it sure feels like it. If I had more available cash in my retirement accounts, I'd be adding to my positions below. At the same time, the market may be extra-skittish with September 11 approaching.
Open Positions
EWM =-12.51%
EWS = -13.23
EZU = -10.72
GLD = -6.17
GXC = -9.16
IF = -17.79
KOL = -21.23
SWZ = -10.19
YHOO = -11.80
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 12.53%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 2.82%]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.68%; does not factor in TTWO's recent sale]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 11.6%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day September 9, 2008 (1224.51)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Nothing new to report trade-wise, except I sold most of my CCT position, netting a positive gain. I am not including the gain below. Although I still own 75 shares, my holdings are below the required 2,000 dollar threshold for inclusion in this blog.
I picked up 1000 shares of TTWO today and will look to sell this week.
Since June 2007, my retirement accounts moved today from being in the black to slightly in the red. I am not happy, but I keep reminding myself that I am well-diversified and should have a long term investment horizon. I am not sure if we've experienced "capitulation" yet, but it sure feels like it. If I had more available cash in my retirement accounts, I'd be adding to my positions below. At the same time, the market may be extra-skittish with September 11 approaching.
Open Positions
EWM =-12.51%
EWS = -13.23
EZU = -10.72
GLD = -6.17
GXC = -9.16
IF = -17.79
KOL = -21.23
SWZ = -10.19
YHOO = -11.80
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 12.53%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 2.82%]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]; TTWO (2.2%) [9/9/08 to 9/12/08]
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.68%; does not factor in TTWO's recent sale]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 11.6%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day September 9, 2008 (1224.51)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Stocks Update, 8/22/08
Numbers below are based on prices at mid-day on August 22, 2008. Positions below have at least a $2,500 basis or current value of at least $2,500.
What's new? I don't list my mutual fund activity here, because activity is so sparse, but I added to my mutual fund positions in T. Rowe Price's EMERGING EUROPE & MEDITERRANEAN fund (TREMX). The fund is 61% Russian stocks and its value decreased after Russia invaded Georgia (imperial notions are considered bad for any economy). I cite TREMX and its majority Russian holdings because it's important to look at the actual composition of a mutual fund before buying it. Many people think they are diversifying when they buy funds with different-sounding names. Mutual fund companies are selling similar products and have to differentiate based on names and other advertising. I had a friend recently show me his portfolio, and he wondered why he had lost so much money over the last year when he felt diversified. I looked at his portfolio--almost all the funds held the exact same names (e.g., Google, Chevron, and other well-known big caps). Lesson: always look deep inside the fund, not just at the cover.
Having said that, I've taken my own advice and diversified. I recently opened new positions in Gold (GLD), China (GXC), and KOL (energy ETF).
My main regret so far? I wish I'd waited before going into the Malaysia ETF (EWM) and Indonesia Fund (IF). I've been averaging down, and it's getting expensive.
I continue to believe IF will be a good long-term hold over a 10 year horizon. Indonesia was part of OPEC until a few months ago. It left OPEC after being unable to meet its production targets. Although Indonesia is blessed with natural resources, including crude oil and natural gas, it now imports more oil than it exports. Once Indonesia is better run, gains should come. I also love its national motto: "Unity in diversity."
Malaysia is in an enviable situation with good weather, peaceful citizens, natural resources, and many entrepreneurial residents who understand Chinese culture and can attract investment from China and neighbor Singapore. I am hoping both EWM and IF will be lifetime holds in my portfolio.
What's my outlook for the market? Choppy, lots of sharks still circling around, and any chum thrown in the water may result in a feeding frenzy. In plainer English, the market will probably move sideways due to short sellers still making bets and hedge and mutual funds not moving in to buy stocks just yet. Any bad news may result in a temporary market capitulation. I'm a not a posterboy for the practice, but it's hard to be a "buy and hold" investor these days. My advice? Keep the faith, but diversify.
Open Positions
CCT = +1.82
EWM =-6.42
EWS = -9.31
EZU = -4.39
GLD = 0% (excluded from avg)
GXC = +0.32%
IF = -9.49
KOL = +6.88
SWZ = -6.51
YHOO = -4.69
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 3.53%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 2.82%]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.68%]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 6.92%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day August 22, 2008 (1289.80)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
What's new? I don't list my mutual fund activity here, because activity is so sparse, but I added to my mutual fund positions in T. Rowe Price's EMERGING EUROPE & MEDITERRANEAN fund (TREMX). The fund is 61% Russian stocks and its value decreased after Russia invaded Georgia (imperial notions are considered bad for any economy). I cite TREMX and its majority Russian holdings because it's important to look at the actual composition of a mutual fund before buying it. Many people think they are diversifying when they buy funds with different-sounding names. Mutual fund companies are selling similar products and have to differentiate based on names and other advertising. I had a friend recently show me his portfolio, and he wondered why he had lost so much money over the last year when he felt diversified. I looked at his portfolio--almost all the funds held the exact same names (e.g., Google, Chevron, and other well-known big caps). Lesson: always look deep inside the fund, not just at the cover.
Having said that, I've taken my own advice and diversified. I recently opened new positions in Gold (GLD), China (GXC), and KOL (energy ETF).
My main regret so far? I wish I'd waited before going into the Malaysia ETF (EWM) and Indonesia Fund (IF). I've been averaging down, and it's getting expensive.
I continue to believe IF will be a good long-term hold over a 10 year horizon. Indonesia was part of OPEC until a few months ago. It left OPEC after being unable to meet its production targets. Although Indonesia is blessed with natural resources, including crude oil and natural gas, it now imports more oil than it exports. Once Indonesia is better run, gains should come. I also love its national motto: "Unity in diversity."
Malaysia is in an enviable situation with good weather, peaceful citizens, natural resources, and many entrepreneurial residents who understand Chinese culture and can attract investment from China and neighbor Singapore. I am hoping both EWM and IF will be lifetime holds in my portfolio.
What's my outlook for the market? Choppy, lots of sharks still circling around, and any chum thrown in the water may result in a feeding frenzy. In plainer English, the market will probably move sideways due to short sellers still making bets and hedge and mutual funds not moving in to buy stocks just yet. Any bad news may result in a temporary market capitulation. I'm a not a posterboy for the practice, but it's hard to be a "buy and hold" investor these days. My advice? Keep the faith, but diversify.
Open Positions
CCT = +1.82
EWM =-6.42
EWS = -9.31
EZU = -4.39
GLD = 0% (excluded from avg)
GXC = +0.32%
IF = -9.49
KOL = +6.88
SWZ = -6.51
YHOO = -4.69
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 3.53%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 2.82%]
Held less than 7 days:
DUK = (0%, excluded from avg) [8/07/08 - 8/14/08]; GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.68%]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 6.92%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day August 22, 2008 (1289.80)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Friday, August 8, 2008
Stocks Update, 8/8/08
Numbers below are based on prices at mid-day on August 8, 2008. Positions below have at least a $2,500 basis or current value of at least $2,500.
I've had 175 of CCT for a while and am up 2.03%. If you don't want to invest directly in a company's preferred shares, check out PFF, an exchange-traded-fund containing a basket of preferred shares (I own shares in PFF also).
The market will be choppy for a while. These large swings we've had--up 300 points, down the next day, up 200 points the next day, etc., will continue until the experts feel prices have bottomed out. Unfortunately, the experts want to see more volatility before deeming a market bottom. Investor's Business Daily says we're in a confirmed rally, and even Barry Ritholtz said several days ago the Dow would temporarily go back to above 12,000.
I am not committing large amounts to the market yet, but am enjoying trading. The percentages below are deceiving--my short term trades involve far more money than my open positions. If I make 1% on a $50,000 trade each time, but am losing 8% on a $3,000 investment like IF, I am still up.
I sold WFR because I noticed many competitors jumping in the solar wafer business. When I saw SOLF and other Chinese companies enter the market, I thought to myself, "Let's see, WFR, competitive advantage, wide moat...hmmmm." And then I blanked. I sold the very next day, eking out a small gain.
I am also slowly adding commodities-related investments. I missed the boom and didn't have any commodities, but with their recent price decrease, they are slightly more interesting. To be more diversified, at least 15% of my portfolio should be in commodities-related industries or non-equities. I recently invested small amounts in UNG (bought more today), KOL, and JNK. I'm nowhere near 15% for diversification purposes, but will get there at some point. My friend recommended MRO, but the information about its spinoff or breakup of the company is already public knowledge. I am not sure the market is that inefficient.
In other news, the Olympics are here!
Open Positions
DUK = +1.11
EWM =-8.07 [will average down from here]
EZU = -0.57 (own 65 shares) [excluded from average, negligible movement]
IF = -8.01
YHOO = -2.89
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 4.46%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 2.82%]
Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.85% (changed after NVDA sale)]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 7.38%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day August 8, 2008 (1283.42)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
I've had 175 of CCT for a while and am up 2.03%. If you don't want to invest directly in a company's preferred shares, check out PFF, an exchange-traded-fund containing a basket of preferred shares (I own shares in PFF also).
The market will be choppy for a while. These large swings we've had--up 300 points, down the next day, up 200 points the next day, etc., will continue until the experts feel prices have bottomed out. Unfortunately, the experts want to see more volatility before deeming a market bottom. Investor's Business Daily says we're in a confirmed rally, and even Barry Ritholtz said several days ago the Dow would temporarily go back to above 12,000.
I am not committing large amounts to the market yet, but am enjoying trading. The percentages below are deceiving--my short term trades involve far more money than my open positions. If I make 1% on a $50,000 trade each time, but am losing 8% on a $3,000 investment like IF, I am still up.
I sold WFR because I noticed many competitors jumping in the solar wafer business. When I saw SOLF and other Chinese companies enter the market, I thought to myself, "Let's see, WFR, competitive advantage, wide moat...hmmmm." And then I blanked. I sold the very next day, eking out a small gain.
I am also slowly adding commodities-related investments. I missed the boom and didn't have any commodities, but with their recent price decrease, they are slightly more interesting. To be more diversified, at least 15% of my portfolio should be in commodities-related industries or non-equities. I recently invested small amounts in UNG (bought more today), KOL, and JNK. I'm nowhere near 15% for diversification purposes, but will get there at some point. My friend recommended MRO, but the information about its spinoff or breakup of the company is already public knowledge. I am not sure the market is that inefficient.
In other news, the Olympics are here!
Open Positions
DUK = +1.11
EWM =-8.07 [will average down from here]
EZU = -0.57 (own 65 shares) [excluded from average, negligible movement]
IF = -8.01
YHOO = -2.89
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 4.46%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WFR = +0.9 (approx; based on partial sales week of 8/4/08 in two separate accounts)
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 2.82%]
Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), NVDA (8.0%) [8/12 to 8/13/08]; PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08, 8/7/08, and 8/8/08]
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.85% (changed after NVDA sale)]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 7.38%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day August 8, 2008 (1283.42)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Stocks Update: out of SO/GRMN, in WFR/TTWO
Numbers below are based on prices at market's close on August 5, 2008.
I sold Southern (SO) after seeing it listed as one of the highest sold-off stocks (largest outflow of money) this week. Someone seems to know something I don't, and that makes me uncomfortable. I lost about 30 bucks on the trade, including the dividend payout.
I sold Garmin (GRMN), taking a loss. I violated the rule of never catching a falling knife. However, I wasn't completely off my rocker, because I bought only 80 shares, intending to average down slowly. In the end, I only lost around 180 dollars.
Since posting trades publicly, SO and GRMN are the first times I have lost money on short-term trades (held less than 7 days). Most of my short term trades--the ones I intend to be short-term--are major trades of 500 shares or more. My losses on SO and GRMN were about two hundred (200) dollars total, and I did not intend for them to be short-term trades, so I'm not concerned.
My two main holdings now are WFR (bought more today--stock went down because a storm might affect production--unless this storm is called Katrina's Sister or the Second Coming of Katrina, wake me up when it's over) and TTWO. I sold 150 shares of my TTWO holdings today, and now own 250 shares. I also have CCT, most of which was bought many months ago, and I am slightly positive on CCT.
The Fed decided to stay pat on interest rates. This should be good news for my international bond funds.
Open Positions
DUK = [bought on 8/7/08]
EWM = -5.73
EZU = +1.55 [excluded from average, insignificant movement; will be excluded completely in the future b/c I realized I only own 30 shares, below the 2,500 dollars basis or current value threshold for inclusion]
IF = -7.13
TTWO = +4.89
WFR = 0 [excluded from average; new position]
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 0.72% [changes with addition of DUK and sale of VNQ on 8/7/08]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.97% [does not include 8/7 sale of VNQ]]
Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08 and 8/7/08]
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.72% [does not include 8/7 sale of TTWO]]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 7.27%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to close on August 5, 2008 (1284.88)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
I sold Southern (SO) after seeing it listed as one of the highest sold-off stocks (largest outflow of money) this week. Someone seems to know something I don't, and that makes me uncomfortable. I lost about 30 bucks on the trade, including the dividend payout.
I sold Garmin (GRMN), taking a loss. I violated the rule of never catching a falling knife. However, I wasn't completely off my rocker, because I bought only 80 shares, intending to average down slowly. In the end, I only lost around 180 dollars.
Since posting trades publicly, SO and GRMN are the first times I have lost money on short-term trades (held less than 7 days). Most of my short term trades--the ones I intend to be short-term--are major trades of 500 shares or more. My losses on SO and GRMN were about two hundred (200) dollars total, and I did not intend for them to be short-term trades, so I'm not concerned.
My two main holdings now are WFR (bought more today--stock went down because a storm might affect production--unless this storm is called Katrina's Sister or the Second Coming of Katrina, wake me up when it's over) and TTWO. I sold 150 shares of my TTWO holdings today, and now own 250 shares. I also have CCT, most of which was bought many months ago, and I am slightly positive on CCT.
The Fed decided to stay pat on interest rates. This should be good news for my international bond funds.
Open Positions
DUK = [bought on 8/7/08]
EWM = -5.73
EZU = +1.55 [excluded from average, insignificant movement; will be excluded completely in the future b/c I realized I only own 30 shares, below the 2,500 dollars basis or current value threshold for inclusion]
IF = -7.13
TTWO = +4.89
WFR = 0 [excluded from average; new position]
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 0.72% [changes with addition of DUK and sale of VNQ on 8/7/08]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from average; insignificant movement)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
VNQ = +2.37 [sold 8/7/08]
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.97% [does not include 8/7 sale of VNQ]]
Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; GRMN (-6.2%) [Sold 8/5/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%); SO (-0.3%) [Sold 8/5/08]; TTWO (4.3%) [partial sales on 8/5/08 and 8/7/08]
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.72% [does not include 8/7 sale of TTWO]]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 7.27%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to close on August 5, 2008 (1284.88)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Stocks Update, July 30, 2008
I opened new positions in SO, VNQ, GRMN, and EZU. My next buy will either be WFR or NVDA. My largest positions are now SO, CCT (not included because most shares bought before publicly tracking positions), and VNQ. I am concerned about GRMN going down further in the short-term, but plan on holding onto it for at least a year.
My short-term trades continue to be uniformly positive by small margins. With these short-term trades, I regularly invest large dollar amounts and get out quickly, usually making 1% each round-trip. If I do that 10 times a year with all my money, that's a 10% gain, but I've got too many scattered positions right now to commit to a full-time short-term strategy.
The major outstanding question is whether we have experienced capitulation. There is no uniformly accepted definition of "capitulation"--it's the same as Justice Potter Stewart's definition of pornography: "I know it when I see it." The WSJ wrote today the VIX (volatility index) hasn't reached the levels some experts demand before calling a capitulation, but the market hasn't been acting predictably anyway, so perhaps it's all noise. Experts and fund managers probably want to see panic before they commit major amounts in the stock market, and whatever signal they're looking for, they're not seeing it. As a result, most experts say it's not time yet to jump back into the pool. Me, I am slowly getting back in, but I am aiming for September 2008 as a time to consider adding to my existing positions in a serious way. Other than SO, none of my individual positions currently exceeds 5,000 dollars.
Numbers below are based on prices at the close of market on July 30, 2008.
Open Positions
EWM = -3.49
EZU = +1.24
GRMN = -2.41
IF = -4.56
SO = -0.61 [insignificant movement, so not included in average]
VNQ = +3.39
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 1.17%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from averages and overall record calculations)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.97%]
Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 2.96%]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 7.32%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day July 30, 2008 (1284.26)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
My short-term trades continue to be uniformly positive by small margins. With these short-term trades, I regularly invest large dollar amounts and get out quickly, usually making 1% each round-trip. If I do that 10 times a year with all my money, that's a 10% gain, but I've got too many scattered positions right now to commit to a full-time short-term strategy.
The major outstanding question is whether we have experienced capitulation. There is no uniformly accepted definition of "capitulation"--it's the same as Justice Potter Stewart's definition of pornography: "I know it when I see it." The WSJ wrote today the VIX (volatility index) hasn't reached the levels some experts demand before calling a capitulation, but the market hasn't been acting predictably anyway, so perhaps it's all noise. Experts and fund managers probably want to see panic before they commit major amounts in the stock market, and whatever signal they're looking for, they're not seeing it. As a result, most experts say it's not time yet to jump back into the pool. Me, I am slowly getting back in, but I am aiming for September 2008 as a time to consider adding to my existing positions in a serious way. Other than SO, none of my individual positions currently exceeds 5,000 dollars.
Numbers below are based on prices at the close of market on July 30, 2008.
Open Positions
EWM = -3.49
EZU = +1.24
GRMN = -2.41
IF = -4.56
SO = -0.61 [insignificant movement, so not included in average]
VNQ = +3.39
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 1.17%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from averages and overall record calculations)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.97%]
Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 2.96%]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 7.32%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day July 30, 2008 (1284.26)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Stocks Update, July 24, 2008
Numbers below are based on prices at the close of market on July 24, 2008.
Open Positions
EWM = -6.57
IF = -8.45
VNQ = -1.02
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 5.34%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from averages and overall record calculations)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.97%]
Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 3.31% (avg has changed because of GOOG trade)]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 9.6%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day July 17, 2008 (1252.54)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Open Positions
EWM = -6.57
IF = -8.45
VNQ = -1.02
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 5.34%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from averages and overall record calculations)
PFE = -5.5
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.97%]
Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); GOOG (0.8%) [7/28/08 - 7/29/08]; ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 3.31% (avg has changed because of GOOG trade)]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 9.6%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day July 17, 2008 (1252.54)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Pfizer (PFE)
Like many before me, Pfizer (PFE) has caused me heartbreak. I sold all but 100 shares of it today, and will consider it a closed position at a percentage loss of 5.5%. I also picked up more IF and EWM and opened a new position, VNQ.
It appears I correctly called a bottom in the banking sector. Today, Bank of America reported better than expected earnings (which means they weren't completely abysmal), and CNB keeps chugging up. As one of the few people in the entire country who called at least a short-term banking bottom correctly, I am waiting for my first CNBC appearance...but won't hold my breath.
I've been keeping track of all my retirement accounts, which is where I do most of my trading. From June 3, 2007 to July 21, 2008, my portfolio increased 3.0%. It's not great performance, but the S&P 500 decreased 18% during that same time period, so I'll take it [from June 1, 2007 (1536.34) to July 21, 2008 (1260)].
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
It appears I correctly called a bottom in the banking sector. Today, Bank of America reported better than expected earnings (which means they weren't completely abysmal), and CNB keeps chugging up. As one of the few people in the entire country who called at least a short-term banking bottom correctly, I am waiting for my first CNBC appearance...but won't hold my breath.
I've been keeping track of all my retirement accounts, which is where I do most of my trading. From June 3, 2007 to July 21, 2008, my portfolio increased 3.0%. It's not great performance, but the S&P 500 decreased 18% during that same time period, so I'll take it [from June 1, 2007 (1536.34) to July 21, 2008 (1260)].
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Stocks Update, July 17, 2008
It's been a wild week, so I thought it would be a good time for a stocks update. Colonial Bancgroup (CNB) skyrocketed around 50% within three days after I called a bottom in banking stocks, and I recovered my losses and ended up making 10%. JP Morgan upgraded CNB today, causing a 20% jump. It's fun knowing I beat J.P. Morgan to the punch. Too often, investment banks upgrade stocks after an already-large run-up in the price.
I also sold Embarq (EQ), not because I dislike the stock's fundamentals, but because of a potential political problem. Congress questioned EQ about customer privacy. Apparently, some Congressmen believe that EQ covertly tracked users' internet activity. While there have no proven allegations, and EQ deserves the benefit of the doubt, I'm not willing to take the risk of a political fallout, no matter how nice EQ's dividend is.
Pinnacle (PNK), my largest loss in terms of percentage in the "Closed Positions" category, jumped 20% today. I sold earlier because the actual dollar loss was small and the market was being irrational. I don't know if I'd jump back in just yet--the market seems to be indiscriminately devaluing casino and restaurant stocks.
My major positions now are in PFE and CCT, with much smaller amounts in BLV and DBV. Preferred shares took a bath this week. I still can't figure out why. I picked up more CCT as a result.
You'll notice that BLV, DBV and CCT are not listed below in "Open Positions." I bought these stocks prior to publicly disclosing my individual buys and sells, so old positions are "grandfathered" for purposes of this blog. Prior to the recent market lows, I reduced almost all my positions, including mutual funds. Now, I hold no individual position more than 6,000 dollars, not even mutual funds (although one international bond fund will probably exceed 6,000 dollars due to dividend reinvestment).
I also changed the format of the statistics below. I spoke with a friend of mine, who correctly told me the overall averages between categories made no sense, because they valued completely different items. In order to have a proper average, I would have to go through and add up each and every trade and then divide them by the total number of all trades. For now, I am listing averages in each category only. Clearly, my ability to predict the market in the short term is much better than my ability to discern where the market is going long-term.
Numbers below are based on mid-day prices on July 17, 2008.
Open Positions
EWM = -10.84
IF = -11.8
PFE = -4.38
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 9.0%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from averages and overall record calculations)
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.73%]
Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 3.31%]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 9.5%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day July 17, 2008 (1254)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
I also sold Embarq (EQ), not because I dislike the stock's fundamentals, but because of a potential political problem. Congress questioned EQ about customer privacy. Apparently, some Congressmen believe that EQ covertly tracked users' internet activity. While there have no proven allegations, and EQ deserves the benefit of the doubt, I'm not willing to take the risk of a political fallout, no matter how nice EQ's dividend is.
Pinnacle (PNK), my largest loss in terms of percentage in the "Closed Positions" category, jumped 20% today. I sold earlier because the actual dollar loss was small and the market was being irrational. I don't know if I'd jump back in just yet--the market seems to be indiscriminately devaluing casino and restaurant stocks.
My major positions now are in PFE and CCT, with much smaller amounts in BLV and DBV. Preferred shares took a bath this week. I still can't figure out why. I picked up more CCT as a result.
You'll notice that BLV, DBV and CCT are not listed below in "Open Positions." I bought these stocks prior to publicly disclosing my individual buys and sells, so old positions are "grandfathered" for purposes of this blog. Prior to the recent market lows, I reduced almost all my positions, including mutual funds. Now, I hold no individual position more than 6,000 dollars, not even mutual funds (although one international bond fund will probably exceed 6,000 dollars due to dividend reinvestment).
I also changed the format of the statistics below. I spoke with a friend of mine, who correctly told me the overall averages between categories made no sense, because they valued completely different items. In order to have a proper average, I would have to go through and add up each and every trade and then divide them by the total number of all trades. For now, I am listing averages in each category only. Clearly, my ability to predict the market in the short term is much better than my ability to discern where the market is going long-term.
Numbers below are based on mid-day prices on July 17, 2008.
Open Positions
EWM = -10.84
IF = -11.8
PFE = -4.38
[Average of "Open Positions": losing/negative average 9.0%]
Closed Positions:
Held more than seven days but less than one year (from May 30, 2008):
CNB = +10.0
EQ = -8.83
GE = -6.4
INTC = 0.0 (excluded from averages and overall record calculations)
PNK = -16.7%
PPS = -2.8
WYE = +2.4%
[Overall Record: Lost an average of 3.73%]
Held less than 7 days:
GE (1.0%); ICE (2.0%), MMM (0.5%), MRK (0.1%), PFE (1.3%), SCUR (15%)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 3.31%]
Daytrades:
PFE = +0.5%
GE = +0.5% (Updated on July 14, 2008; bought at 27.15, sold at 27.30)
XLF = +4.3% (Updated on July 15, 2008)
[Overall Record: Gained an average of 1.76%]
Compare to S&P 500: losing/negative 9.5%
[from May 30, 2008 (1385.67) to mid-day July 17, 2008 (1254)]
The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only and does not constitute investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence.
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