American Dollar: Fallin' since 1971

The New York Times chart above shows the American dollar's relative value. As you can see, a dollar just 30 or 40 years was worth much more in the international marketplace. I am willing to bet if you asked most college graduates how much the American dollar has been devalued since 1971, almost no one would know.

I wish high schools would teach Americans basic statistics and macroeconomics, but with teachers' unions and religious fundamentalists influencing the academic curriculum and refusing to adapt to the 21st century, I don't see much change on the horizon.

Here's a basic tip: when analyzing economic data, you cannot rely on one set of numbers. For example, if someone shows you a chart of income growth rates, such data is meaningless without also evaluating inflation rates during the same time periods. More specifically, if your income rises 3% but inflation rises 4%, you are worse off than if your income rises 2% but inflation rises 1%. That's another interesting question to ask a high school senior--whether you are better off under the former or latter scenario. Again, I bet most of the high school seniors would answer incorrectly.

The Poor, Poor American Dollar

I have a treat for my readers--The Atlantic's (December 2008, p. 62) interview with Gao Xiqing, who oversees and invests $200 billion of China's $2 trillion U.S. dollar holdings. This interview is one of the best ones I've ever read because of the government official's openness:

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200812/fallows-chinese-banker

Below are my favorite two parts from the interview, one about the American dollar, and the other about derivatives:

Everyone is saying, “Oh, look, the dollar is getting stronger!” [As it was when we spoke.] I say, that’s really temporary. It’s simply because a lot of people need to cash in, they need U.S. dollars in order to pay back their creditors. But after a short while, the dollar may be going down again. I’d like to bet on that!

I have been converting my dollars into Canadian dollars recently. I already have euros (FXE) and some Swiss francs (FXF). We'll see in a year whether my decision was the right one. I felt compelled to diversify my U.S. dollar holdings, because they were earning around 1% in interest, while competing currencies had much higher interest rates and the possibility of greater upside.

As for derivatives, here is what Mr. Gao had to say:

If you look at every one of these [derivative] products, they make sense. But in aggregate, they are bullsh*t. They are crap. They serve to cheat people.

Mr. Gao explains derivatives by comparing them to multiple mirror reflections of one actual product. It's such a perfect analogy, I'm surprised no mainstream American publication has mentioned it until now.

Kudos to The Atlantic and Mr. Fallows for publishing this interview.